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CPEC - stalled and lost momentum?

vi-va

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Exactly, please compare yourself to asia and africa, not to USA or europe or japan/korea, you got ways to go.

Come back when you are near equals to western Europe at least.
Who provoke me first with nonsense? which has nothing to do with western Europeans.
Is this sarcastic?

Literally every country listed here has more freedom and more prosperity for its citizens than China...
 

tower9

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Pakistan has man power. Pakistan should leverage man power for labor intensive industry, it will provide more jobs opportunities to ordinary man and women.

Vietnam population 90 millions, export US$267 billion in 2020.
Pakistan population 220 millions, export US$ 23 billions in 2019.

Pakistan should integrate into East/SE Asia supply chain and adopt export driven economy, just like all East/SE Asia countries did.

For export driven economy, Pakistan need Sea Port, more Sea Port, and upgrade existing Sea Port, upgrade and build more railway, connect major cities, along Hindu River. More power stations and connect them all together by power grid. Literally do what China did in past 3 decades.

Let me give you guys an example of Foxconn.

Foxconn employed less than a million employees in China directly. For every single Foxconn assemble factory, there will be hundreds of other factories built, either close to Foxconn, or connect by railway, road within 50 miles. Those factories are not owned by Foxconn, they provide parts, services to Foxconn.

Foxconn provided at least 10 millions jobs directly and indirectly, which means 10 millions families can feed themselves.

Why Foxconn choose China? Incentives. Tax, Water, railway, road, electricity, cable, land, law, labor, government policies, government services, efficiencies.

India has a lot more youth, but not skilled labors. Labors are those who can work under great pressure, disciplined, skillful. India lack of good infrastructure.

That's why most industries stay in China, but not India.

While India propaganda machine running in full speed to slander CPEC, but look at India 2021 budget, more infrastructure to be built, more fund.

@Indus Pakistan
It’s in China’s interest to help Pakistan develop into a highly industrialized economy and for gwadar to become the next Dubai. The best allies are the ones that are strong and rich. If CPEC fails then China’s interests will be greatly damaged, that’s why India is determined to hurt CPEC.
 

Kabira

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@TaiShang For the umpteenth time the issue I see with CPEC is not debt trap - which is just rubbish peddled by Indians and others who have a issue with China. To my mind the problem is the corridor hsas NOT been built. No even close to it. CPEC was about a China Pakistan Economic CORRIDOR. Whilst many projects have been built here and there titled CPEC but the core of CPEC. The establishing of a port at Gwadar and then a infa link. Roads/rail lining Gwadar along the north-south axis thus opening a new trade route and creating a new economic linkages has not taken place.

If you look at the map below only Gwadar port, few miles of A-road going north, a 150 mile motorway right at the norh section of the corridor are anywhere near compoletion. The huge distance inbetween of about 600 miles has nothing. Thus leaving Gwadar effectively with no corridor leading to and my description of that port being a beached whale at the present.


View attachment 713455
Stop fcukin bringing in partisan politics you idiot. The issue here is far bigger than any government in Pakistan. It has to do with China and how it runs it's geo-politics, how Pakistan fits in that and the nature of Pakistan culture,socio-political order.
The work on western route is in progress, may take 2-3 years. Not sure if this will change anything though. ML-1 probably 5-8 years away.

I dont think one needs 6 lanes motorway in western corridor looking at traffic.

Cities in north should forgot about competing with China/Viet in manufacturing. They cant even compete with Karachi even if ML1, Motorways are completed.

I will advice KP and Punjab gov to invest in IT infrastructure and education instead. Maybe so called CPEC SEZ’s not getting much investment is a sign for things to come.
 

nahtanbob

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Sri Lanka has four port projets.

They need the port.
The idle port speaks for itself
It’s in China’s interest to help Pakistan develop into a highly industrialized economy and for gwadar to become the next Dubai. The best allies are the ones that are strong and rich. If CPEC fails then China’s interests will be greatly damaged, that’s why India is determined to hurt CPEC.
If you truly want to help Pakistan you will be investing in Karachi not Gwadar

Has China ever had a strong and rich ally ?

It is more like North Korea and Myanmar
Pakistan will take a lot of India's current business they have with Western companies, wait and see.

Once Pakistan has all its ducks in order, our competitive advantage will grow exponentially.

Costs per units manufactured in Pakistan (production, storage and transportation), will see considerable reductions for all focal companies including all their tiered suppliers within Pakistan's supply chains. - making Pakistani good far more competitively priced. It will be difficult for customers not to buy from Pakistan.
India is doing only engineering work. There is little in the way of manufacturing
If you want to compete on manufactured goods you have to worry about China not India
 

nahtanbob

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I agree with you. The issue with Pakistan is that as a society it is still stuck in the narrative of middle ages and feudal structures. Their solution to the undeveloped condition of the people to find solutions in the very thought that is cause of their backwardness. Pakistan is like before Meiji Japan and the forces that refuse to accept the modern world hold the upper hand. Anybody suggesting moving forward will be called 'gora' [White] or Westoxified liberal beap bleap. Such is the hold of this primitive culture that if this was applied to China you still would be dressed like middle ages China and your women would be walking around in small wooden shoes. Socialism or communism would be branded a European dirty system etc.

So no doubt the problems are in Pakistan. However the western corridor could be developed in 7 years with about $25 billion outlay. I know that is lot of money but for a country like China it's small change. If China pushed ahead and regarded it as Marshal Plan for a ally the corridor would develop and with two decades be a rip roaring success that would transform Pakistan.

I give you one example. The eastern corridor with Karachi as the port was laid by British in 1880s when this region was mostly just desert. If the British had carried out a economic audit the laying down of the Eastern corridor [which was a rail line linking north with Karachi] it would have made no sense. But over the succeeding decades that investment became Pakistan's core economic corridor.

I think China now needs to be more aggressive in it's support of it's allies like USA was to Europe post WW2. It will not only beneit Pakistan but benefit China by having a solid and strong ally with huge trade potential.
There is nothing in CPEC that wll fix Pakistan's cultural issues. China has zero success dealing with foreign cultures. Even America and British have mixed record here.

Putting money in Gwadar and Western corridor is a waste. 90% of Pakistan's populaton live in the Eastern corridor. The Eastern corridor has everything - people, farmlands etc.
The work on western route is in progress, may take 2-3 years. Not sure if this will change anything though. ML-1 probably 5-8 years away.

I dont think one needs 6 lanes motorway in western corridor looking at traffic.

Cities in north should forgot about competing with China/Viet in manufacturing. They cant even compete with Karachi even if ML1, Motorways are completed.

I will advice KP and Punjab gov to invest in IT infrastructure and education instead. Maybe so called CPEC SEZ’s not getting much investment is a sign for things to come.
The cost of shipping imports from Karachi to factory in Lahore and sending it back tom Karachi for re-export is too much.

Do not expect the Mandarins on PDF to realize such tiny things
@TaiShang For the umpteenth time the issue I see with CPEC is not debt trap - which is just rubbish peddled by Indians and others who have a issue with China. To my mind the problem is the corridor hsas NOT been built. No even close to it. CPEC was about a China Pakistan Economic CORRIDOR. Whilst many projects have been built here and there titled CPEC but the core of CPEC. The establishing of a port at Gwadar and then a infa link. Roads/rail lining Gwadar along the north-south axis thus opening a new trade route and creating a new economic linkages has not taken place.
most of the CPEC projects are not economical. If it is not a debt trap for Pakistan someone in China is going to taking a haircut on those loans and investments
 

Kabira

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The idle port speaks for itself


If you truly want to help Pakistan you will be investing in Karachi not Gwadar

Has China ever had a strong and rich ally ?

It is more like North Korea and Myanmar


India is doing only engineering work. There is little in the way of manufacturing
If you want to compete on manufactured goods you have to worry about China not India
If China really wanted to help Pakistan, it would invest in SEZ and increase imports from Pakistan to balance trade. Which is main reason for Pakistan going bankrupt every 3-4 years and begging to IMF. That will result higher GDP growth by default.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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If China really wanted to help Pakistan, it would invest in SEZ and increase imports from Pakistan to balance trade. Which is main reason for Pakistan going bankrupt every 3-4 years and begging to IMF. That will result higher GDP growth by default.



Please read the following in full:

 

Kabira

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Please read the following in full:

I stopped at "potential" part. 5 years and we are still stuck in potential.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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I stopped at "potential" part. 5 years and we are still stuck in potential.


Because of the low economic and industrial base that CPEC is starting from, it will take at least 20 years for the impact of CPEC to start showing. Expecting results in the short term is neither feasible nor realistic. The Chinese are famous for having immense patience and planning for the long term. That is what us Pakistanis should be trying to emulate. Also in order for the full potential of CPEC to be realized, Pakistan needs to start heavily investing in the STEM education of Pakistani youth.
 

ghazi52

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Because of the low economic and industrial base that CPEC is starting from, it will take at least 20 years for the impact of CPEC to start showing. Expecting results in the short term is neither feasible nor realistic. The Chinese are famous for having immense patience and planning for the long term. That is what us Pakistanis should be trying to emulate. Also in order for the full potential of CPEC to be realized, Pakistan needs to start heavily investing in the STEM education of Pakistani youth.

The best explanation.
Pakistan needs patience.
 

Indus Pakistan

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90% of Pakistan's populaton live in the Eastern corridor.
You should at least do a causual fact check before chucking out numbers. At least 33% of Pakistan's populations falls on the western axis. All of Khbyer Pakhtunkwa Province, Gilgit-Baltistan, westerly portions of Punjab Province [parts of Potohar Plateau including Islamabad Capital territory, Seraiki regions on western flank of Indus] all of Balochistan province. Refer to map below with a north-south axis line.

western axis.png



Historically there was balanced population between western flank and eastern flank of the Indus with slight tilt to the east. However with arrival of the British they invested massively on the eastern flank. Indeed I read the newly merged Punjab and Sind recieved so much investment that the other provinces of India [modern India] complained that were the source of the tax that Raj was spending on this region.

If you and others who complain about CPEC had been around this would have been questioned as most of eastern flank of Indus was desert and Karachi was a tiny fishing village smaller than even Gwadar. However with 1,000 miles of rail lines the connected Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Multan, Sukker and finally Karachi created the very eastern corridor that you know tout. In addition vast investments were made in Punjab irrigation colonies which attracted huge number of farming settlements. Most of these populations were brought in from Amritsar-Ludihana region of Indian Punjab - Muslims and Sikhs.

When that rail line that formed the spine of the eastern corridor was laid in 1880s it was a vast undertaking which had almost zero economic driver as it went through what was then sandy desert. The main reason why the Raj did this was geo-strategic and eye to military defence of their empire. They were creating a solid flank against any Russian threat.

Over the next 150 years to the present corridor the British built has developed massively supporting mega cities like Karachi which see the entire trade of the Indus basin being funneled along to it on the corridor laid by the British.

The British entirely ignored the western flank of Indus as they just regarded that as the borderlands and the region saw much warfare thus was more of a conflict zone then a trade zone but I believe 2020 and with independant Pakistan it is time to begin to develop the western corridor. True right now the route will lead through sand, rock and mountains but once built it will begin the process of development and make Gwadar a sustainable, alternatative trade hub/port to Karachi breaking the monopoly provided to that city 150 years ago by the British.

We need to repeat what the British did in 1870 when they laid the eastern coridor.It was vast undertaking and in today's terms costing far more than CPEC.


The Indus Valley State Railway (reporting mark IVSR) was a railway founded in 1871 to provide a rail link between Kotri and Multan and to replace the Indus Steam Flotilla.[1][2] The opening of the line thus connected Karachi with Lahore.

1612619836042.png
 

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ghazi52

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You should at least do a causual fact check before chucking out numbers. At least 33% of Pakistan's populations falls on the western axis. All of Khbyer Pakhtunkwa Province, Gilgit-Baltistan, westerly portions of Punjab Province [parts of Potohar Plateau including Islamabad Capital territory, Seraiki regions on western flank of Indus] all of Balochistan province. Refer to map below with a north-south axis line.

View attachment 714071


Historically there was balanced population between western flank and eastern flank of the Indus with slight tilt to the east. However with arrival of the British they invested massively on the eastern flank. Indeed I read the newly merged Punjab and Sind recieved so much investment that the other provinces of India [modern India] complained that were the source of the tax that Raj was spending on this region.

If you and others who complain about CPEC had been around this would have been questioned as most of eastern flank of Indus was desert and Karachi was a tiny fishing village smaller than even Gwadar. However with 1,000 miles of rail lines the connected Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Multan, Sukker and finally Karachi created the very eastern corridor that you know tout. In addition vast investments were made in Punjab irrigation colonies which attracted huge number of farming settlements. Most of these populations were brought in from Amritsar-Ludihana region of Indian Punjab - Muslims and Sikhs.

When that rail line that formed the spine of the eastern corridor was laid in 1880s it was a vast undertaking which had almost zero economic driver as it went through what was then sandy desert. The main reason why the Raj did this was geo-strategic and eye to military defence of their empire. They were creating a solid flank against any Russian threat.

Over the next 150 years to the present corridor the British built has developed massively supporting mega cities like Karachi which see the entire trade of the Indus basin being funneled along to it on the corridor laid by the British.

The British entirely ignored the western flank of Indus as they just regarded that as the borderlands and the region saw much warfare thus was more of a conflict zone then a trade zone but I believe 2020 and with independant Pakistan it is time to begin to develop the western corridor. True right now the route will lead through sand, rock and mountains but once built it will begin the process of development and make Gwadar a sustainable, alternatative trade hub/port to Karachi breaking the monopoly provided to that city 150 years ago by the British.

We need to repeat what the British did in 1870 when they laid the eastern coridor.It was vast undertaking and in today's terms costing far more than CPEC.


The Indus Valley State Railway (reporting mark IVSR) was a railway founded in 1871 to provide a rail link between Kotri and Multan and to replace the Indus Steam Flotilla.[1][2] The opening of the line thus connected Karachi with Lahore.

View attachment 714082

Completely true.
 

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