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CPEC - stalled and lost momentum?

imranyounus

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Overall three main culprits

1 Un sincere bureaucrats
2 corrupt and self centered political parties
3 Opportunist business class.

the primary fault was sincerity.

What was required was a simple central northwest route. Starting from the new propused route from yarkhand via muzaffarabad than through manshira attock mianwali D I Khan Khulu Bolan Khuzdar awaran and end at gawadar.

it should have been one main big road. once this road could have been made operational all other cities could have been connected with it though link roads or upgrade existing roads.
that should have been the model. First build utmost necessary infrastructure. Which could have started economic activities. Than go for associated development and economic activities.
Instead what we get is selfishly bureaucrats. corrupt and nationalist politicians and selfish businessman.

bureaucrats are not interested in Pakistan and its development. They never bother to plan anything.

Corrupt politician from punjab and sind wanted to develop their own province. while nationalist wanted every part of it in their own constituency. whay you need three roads when the entire width of Pakistan is just 600 KM and a road passing through above mentioned district's means that western border was at most just 150 kM from it. but they were actually wanted it running parallel to western border.
While the business community just wanted to develop their existing infrastructure on eastern side.

And the result is now you get roads being developed every where on expensive loans on eastern side on western side without any economic activities and benefits
 

Shabi1

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Okay it's been some five years since the launch of CPEC so we can have audit of progress and see if it has lived upto it's expectations. My view is it has delivered some progress but failed to bring substantive change to Pakistan as I would have liked to seen.

Frankly I am disappointed. What could have been has been missed. CPEC offered the possibility to entirely rework the economy of Pakistan. Bring about a revolution in the way the country traded and opened new vistas. Most importantly it offered the possibility of the corrupt, rentier parasite economic linkages that have taken root in Pakistan and are choking competition. What is wrong with Pakistan's economy? everything as it stands. When a economy of 200 million people can only generate $20 billion exports and the country is forced to live on the ex-pat worker remittances of $22 billion it tells us about what type of industry and trading class we have in Pakistan. They are just rent seekers who do not add value but just export basic products. A good example is Pink Salt which as we know is mined and exported raw to India for it to be processed and sold as brand India with 10 times value addition.

The present rent seeking, mafia economy is established along the eastern corridor which runs from Peshawar-Lahore-Multan-Sukker-Karachi. Decades of investment dating even from the British era rail system has laid infrastructure along this corridor. Rail and roads all go along this corridor discharging into the only port Karachi. The entire economic and trading system of 200 million people is hinged on Karachi as it is the port there thatr interfaces with the global economy. You want to import a truck from Japan, a car from Germany, a industrial lathe from France, Swiss clock for any of the 200 million purchasers in Pakistan those products will land at Karachi port and then move along the transport infra of the eastern corridor.

On the other hand whether your a salt miner in Khewra, a Lap;is Lazuli exporter in Peshawar, a sports manufacturer in Sialkot, a tile maker in Multan your goods will travel along that transport infra of the eastern corridor to be exported at Karachi port.

So the entire trading order is lynched on Karachi pivoted on Karachi and geared towards minimum value addition and reliant on subsidies or monopolies. Competition is seen as sin. This is why despite everything Pakistani industry will continue to be feeble and fail to take off like Bangladesh has. The rent seekers will just make excuses come PTI, PPP, PML.

The infographic below sums up the lay of the eastern corridor. Karachi is vital and is the final point where a national level "bhatta tax" is inflicted by various vested interests in that city which tend to be either PPP or MQM controlled. The entire 1,000 mile corridor will be get stuck here unless some money is not exchanged.

View attachment 713009


CPEC however offered a tantalising possibility of breaking this entrenched rent seeking economic order thart has taken root over the decades with chockehold at Karach port that has the entire country hostage. As explained above the economic activity of 200 million people rests at the only port to the outside world.

How so? Gwadar. It offered the possibility of a new port. A possibility of a alternative that would break the chokehold of Karachi. It would offer a chance for a new economic corridor to open up. With it it would bring competition and finally some fresh vigour to the Pakistan economy. This would force change in the eastern corridor as monopoly would be broken with rise of Western economic corridor. Please refer to infographic below.

View attachment 713010


For this to work though it is not enough to build a Port at Gwadar. It also needs the Western corridor built that would mean motorways and railways running north to Quetta-DG-Khan-Islamabad-Peshawar with one spur going to Multan-Lahore. The Chinese role was crucial as it would require at least $25 billion to build up the required infra to link Gwadar with 200 million people of Pakistan along the Western Corridor.

Sadly and tragically this has not happened. Gwadar Port has been built up but the Western Corridor only exists on paper. Some roads are being built but these will never rival the rail and motorway infra of the Eastern Corridor. So all trade will by definition continue rolling along the established eastern corridor, The present monopolies will continue to function as they are.

Frankly Gwadar Port is like a beached Whale that is not going anywhere. Let us just think from the POV of a exporter in Sialkot. Do you think you will send your products by truck or rail to Karachi and then have them trucked another 200 miles along the Makran Highway to Gwadar? You would be pretty dumb to do that. As you could easily use Port Qasim or Port Karachi. Why would you add another 200 miles of road and all the costs and time that would imply. For sake of using Gwadar? That is ridicalous.

The other possibilty is use the Quetta-Gwadar route or the alignment of the Western Corridior. The problem is the roads are terrible and law/order is not ideal. Why not just use the excellant M2-M3-M4-M5 motorways to Karach Port? So I am afraid as long as the Western Corridor does not recieve at least $25 billion to build proper motorway followed by proper security Gwadar will remain a beached whale and a white elephant with some ships forced to land there just for photo-ops.

Why the Chinese have not continued with CPEC with the gusto they showed at the outset is another subject we need to look at. But as thing stand CPEC has failed to bring transformation to Pakistan's economy. It has however brought some short term benefits. But sadly not the revolution we all hoped it would bring in.

CPEC has stalled.




In short why would you do this and add almost 200 miles transport costs so you can shout "GWADAR"?

View attachment 713014
We don't have the spare $$$ to spend extravagantly on media accomplishments. ML1 project progress was in news couple of months ago that should be enough news that things are progressing.
Current gov approach on projects generally is focus on long term ones with strategic importance instead of short term projects that could be finished during their 5yr tenure. Politically its not the right move but shows sincerity with the country.

That said CPEC investment inflow is concluding in next couple of years and more increase in size of the project should not be sought as it will become difficult for us to repay the loans which are made at pretty decent returns for China. CPEC is a win win for both Pakistan and China but if it is increased further repayment will become unmanageable. Which is why Bundal Islands and Ravi City projects are the next big things that have to progress.
 
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Rajputana_

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  • Korea is set up , hijacked, controlled and funded by US. Korea actually is a cooperation Samsung covered by a country.
  • Taiwan is set up, hijacked, controlled and funded by US, same as Korea. Taiwan developed fast when Chiang Ching-kuo rules, no one man one vote, but declining when western political system adopted. Taiwan economy is still ok, not because of western political system, but the huge market of mainland China.
  • HK was prosperous because of it was the only place for western power to do business with China, and declining when China opened up more cities. and most importantly HKer has no voting rights at all when British was in charge.
  • Singapore was prosperous, because of Strait of Malacca and LKY. While Singapore was one party state just like China which adopted meritocracy
Is this sarcastic?

Literally every country listed here has more freedom and more prosperity for its citizens than China...
 

Enigma SIG

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The map @Indus Pakistan shows the roads in the most hostile terrain known to man. To make this viable you'd need to post the army along the whole route in todays conditions.
 

doorstar

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The map @Indus Pakistan shows the roads in the most hostile terrain known to man. To make this viable you'd need to post the army along the whole route in todays conditions.
SSD (Special Security Division of the Army) is a force of more than 15000 men that guard these roads
soon there would be Maritime Security Force consisting of 10k for Gwadar port and other coastal areas
 

Nasr

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To know people who complain about CPEC, I ask you this, what initiative have you taken as a Pakistani to help out your fellow countryman? What efforts have you made to seek out opportunities arisen from CPEC? Instead of criticizing, what contributions have you made toward advancing Pakistan?

Most of the time, the ones who complain, are the ones who are the couch potatoes who feel they're entitled to things, or are complacent, procrastinators and one of the parasitic class that feed off of corrupt politicians.

As a Muslim, it is your duty to seek out the truth, and with it make the effort to improve your's and everyone else's lives around you, in a halal manner. Analyze without being condescending or arrogant. When you point out a flaw, always offer a solution or remedy with it.

Be constructive, not disruptive.
 

vi-va

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Is this sarcastic?

Literally every country listed here has more freedom and more prosperity for its citizens than China...
Every Indians I met in US won't go back. I ask them why, everyone tell me the same that they don't want to go back $hitty place.
 
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Nasr

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Every Indians I met in US won't go back. I ask them why, everyone tell me the say that they don't want to go back $hitty place.
Here is where we as Muslims, must part ways in approach mentality, from indians. They (indians) don't want to leave america, since they consider india to be too messed up to go back to. As a Muslim, we are duty bound to face challenges head-on. We as Muslims ought to return to Pakistan, to improve our country's state, in every field. Be it education for our young, be it developing opportunities for employment for our countrymen, or be it to contribute towards the Pakistan's progress as a whole. We have it in us, to make things better.

It was a few who embraced Islam, when our beloved Prophet Muhammad Alaihi Salaat-u-Wassalam came. The few Muslims who faced the odds heavily and brutally stacked against them. What did they do? Did they abandon Nabi Muhammad Alaihi Salaat-u-Wassalam or did they fight to preserve their Imaan in Allah Subhanahu Wata'aalah? As a Muslim, we must come back to our country, our Pakistan and strive to better the lives of our people, and to raise our Pakistan to heights of success and prosperity. A Muslim doesn't get worried when confronted with a difficult situation.

Do you (Pakistanis) remember what Muhammad Ali Jinnah imparted to us when addressing the Muslims? He said, and I quote "Musalmaan museebat main, ghubraya nahin karta."

Remember these words, whenever you feel discouraged to come back to Pakistan and to contribute towards it's betterment and that of our people.
 

waq

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What about the debt trap that was mounting in the name of the CPEC? Useless and costly projects have been included in CPEC just because "the chance of earnings" are astronomical in the name of CPEC. Just consider the case of Karachi Circular Railway that is being pushed under the umbrella of CPEC. This project can easily been developed using Pakistani resources. However due a cPEC project, the result would be foreign loan taken for a project that would have a hard time generating revenue even in Pak Rupee.

Another cause of concern is the minimal use of Pakistani resources in developing the projects. Mostly foreign resources are being used in CPEC.

For these reasons, the stalling of CPEC has been somewhat of a boon for Pakistan in these crunch times because we would have lesser foreign debt to pay for development that is nowhere to be seen.
 

Tomcats

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Okay it's been some five years since the launch of CPEC so we can have audit of progress and see if it has lived upto it's expectations. My view is it has delivered some progress but failed to bring substantive change to Pakistan as I would have liked to seen.

Frankly I am disappointed. What could have been has been missed. CPEC offered the possibility to entirely rework the economy of Pakistan. Bring about a revolution in the way the country traded and opened new vistas. Most importantly it offered the possibility of the corrupt, rentier parasite economic linkages that have taken root in Pakistan and are choking competition. What is wrong with Pakistan's economy? everything as it stands. When a economy of 200 million people can only generate $20 billion exports and the country is forced to live on the ex-pat worker remittances of $22 billion it tells us about what type of industry and trading class we have in Pakistan. They are just rent seekers who do not add value but just export basic products. A good example is Pink Salt which as we know is mined and exported raw to India for it to be processed and sold as brand India with 10 times value addition.

The present rent seeking, mafia economy is established along the eastern corridor which runs from Peshawar-Lahore-Multan-Sukker-Karachi. Decades of investment dating even from the British era rail system has laid infrastructure along this corridor. Rail and roads all go along this corridor discharging into the only port Karachi. The entire economic and trading system of 200 million people is hinged on Karachi as it is the port there thatr interfaces with the global economy. You want to import a truck from Japan, a car from Germany, a industrial lathe from France, Swiss clock for any of the 200 million purchasers in Pakistan those products will land at Karachi port and then move along the transport infra of the eastern corridor.

On the other hand whether your a salt miner in Khewra, a Lap;is Lazuli exporter in Peshawar, a sports manufacturer in Sialkot, a tile maker in Multan your goods will travel along that transport infra of the eastern corridor to be exported at Karachi port.

So the entire trading order is lynched on Karachi pivoted on Karachi and geared towards minimum value addition and reliant on subsidies or monopolies. Competition is seen as sin. This is why despite everything Pakistani industry will continue to be feeble and fail to take off like Bangladesh has. The rent seekers will just make excuses come PTI, PPP, PML.

The infographic below sums up the lay of the eastern corridor. Karachi is vital and is the final point where a national level "bhatta tax" is inflicted by various vested interests in that city which tend to be either PPP or MQM controlled. The entire 1,000 mile corridor will be get stuck here unless some money is not exchanged.

View attachment 713009


CPEC however offered a tantalising possibility of breaking this entrenched rent seeking economic order thart has taken root over the decades with chockehold at Karach port that has the entire country hostage. As explained above the economic activity of 200 million people rests at the only port to the outside world.

How so? Gwadar. It offered the possibility of a new port. A possibility of a alternative that would break the chokehold of Karachi. It would offer a chance for a new economic corridor to open up. With it it would bring competition and finally some fresh vigour to the Pakistan economy. This would force change in the eastern corridor as monopoly would be broken with rise of Western economic corridor. Please refer to infographic below.

View attachment 713010


For this to work though it is not enough to build a Port at Gwadar. It also needs the Western corridor built that would mean motorways and railways running north to Quetta-DG-Khan-Islamabad-Peshawar with one spur going to Multan-Lahore. The Chinese role was crucial as it would require at least $25 billion to build up the required infra to link Gwadar with 200 million people of Pakistan along the Western Corridor.

Sadly and tragically this has not happened. Gwadar Port has been built up but the Western Corridor only exists on paper. Some roads are being built but these will never rival the rail and motorway infra of the Eastern Corridor. So all trade will by definition continue rolling along the established eastern corridor, The present monopolies will continue to function as they are.

Frankly Gwadar Port is like a beached Whale that is not going anywhere. Let us just think from the POV of a exporter in Sialkot. Do you think you will send your products by truck or rail to Karachi and then have them trucked another 200 miles along the Makran Highway to Gwadar? You would be pretty dumb to do that. As you could easily use Port Qasim or Port Karachi. Why would you add another 200 miles of road and all the costs and time that would imply. For sake of using Gwadar? That is ridicalous.

The other possibilty is use the Quetta-Gwadar route or the alignment of the Western Corridior. The problem is the roads are terrible and law/order is not ideal. Why not just use the excellant M2-M3-M4-M5 motorways to Karach Port? So I am afraid as long as the Western Corridor does not recieve at least $25 billion to build proper motorway followed by proper security Gwadar will remain a beached whale and a white elephant with some ships forced to land there just for photo-ops.

Why the Chinese have not continued with CPEC with the gusto they showed at the outset is another subject we need to look at. But as thing stand CPEC has failed to bring transformation to Pakistan's economy. It has however brought some short term benefits. But sadly not the revolution we all hoped it would bring in.

CPEC has stalled.




In short why would you do this and add almost 200 miles transport costs so you can shout "GWADAR"?

View attachment 713014
We don't have the spare $$$ to spend extravagantly on media accomplishments. ML1 project progress was in news couple of months ago that should be enough news that things are progressing.
Current gov approach on projects generally is focus on long term ones with strategic importance instead of short term projects that could be finished during their 5yr tenure. Politically its not the right move but shows sincerity with the country.

That said CPEC investment inflow is concluding in next couple of years and more increase in size of the project should not be sought as it will become difficult for us to repay the loans which are made at pretty decent returns for China. CPEC is a win win for both Pakistan and China but if it is increased further repayment will become unmanageable. Which is why Bundal Islands and Ravi City projects are the next big things that have to progress.
It would also help that the project be a bit more transparent so we can actually see and perhaps even have a say in the way things go about it, but alas.

I myself am not a fan of this Bundal Islands project, to me they are an environmental hazard and shows nobody has learnt from the mayhem that ensued in Karachi during the monsoon season. Already there are major issues in maintaining and providing facilities to multiple areas of Karachi as well as a dire need to rehabilitate them, despite this they want to build more facility intensive areas? On top of that it seems there has been nothing taking into account the ecological impact, the Bundal Islands are a place where Crabs go and create their next of kin and where many other types of sea creatures' habitat, they would be adversely affected by such activities.
 

doorstar

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It would also help that the project be a bit more transparent so we can actually see and perhaps even have a say in the way things go about it, but alas.
I know right! I keep messaging them suggesting that they must consult the PDF PhDs but for some inexplicable reason never get any response. Alas! :( Oh, woe is me!
 

Tomcats

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I know right! I keep messaging them suggesting that they must consult the PDF PhDs but for some inexplicable reason never get any response. Alas! :( Oh, woe is me!
That's a nice way to spin it, thank you for your highly constructive criticism, you truly are the hallmark of a PDF PhD member.
 

nahtanbob

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CPEC will work if Chinese buy Pakistani products

But the CPEC projects are structured to pay Chinese companies and workers for their services
The only problem is that Pakistani populace will be paying the bills unless Chinese government decides to take a haircut on the loans

If infrastructure is a criteria for success Saudi Arabia will be world class industrial power
 

TaiShang

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CPEC will work if Chinese buy Pakistani products

But the CPEC projects are structured to pay Chinese companies and workers for their services
The only problem is that Pakistani populace will be paying the bills unless Chinese government decides to take a haircut on the loans

If infrastructure is a criteria for success Saudi Arabia will be world class industrial power
CPEC creates a corridor, it is not planned to end in Pakistan.

So, there is more to be earned here as a corridor, but not an end market. To do trade with China, Pakistan does not need CPEC-sized project.

CPEC is run by Pakistan and built by Pakistani workers in collaboration with China.

Funds do not come from a single source-country as your manipulated mind imagines. For instance, AIIB joins a number of projects, hence, the loan it provides is international.

Infrastructure is not the only condition for success, but, an essential one.

Schools, hospitals, energy grids are all infrastructure. They help create a more quality people, who help build a better economy.

If development without infrastructure would be feasible, India would be Saudi Arabia today.

No wonder FDR initiated New Deal in the US in the 30s to build more call centers and IT colleges.
 

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