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Could Ukraine War Produce Another Gorbachev to Replace Putin?

RiazHaq

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The mighty Russian military's recent string of losses to the much smaller Ukrainian forces are bringing back memories of the humiliating Russian defeat at the hands of the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Communist Party leaders who presided over the disgraceful Soviet exit were soon ousted from power and replaced by Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev's attempts to reform the Soviet system resulted in its complete collapse. The Soviet Union then ceased to exist by 1991. Could something similar happen to the Russian Federation now?

Mikhail Gorbachev (Left) with Vladimir Putin


Some people in Ukraine and elsewhere in the West do believe that Ukraine will be another Afghanistan for the Russians. For example, Pakistani-Ukrainian billionaire Mohammad Zahoor believes “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia". Talking with Arab News, he said: “This is time, actually, for us not to keep quiet. We have to take sides". Zahoor told Arab News that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have consequences for Russia similar to the fallout from the Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989, which drastically weakened Russia's military and economy. “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia,” he said. “I don’t know how many years they are going to be in Ukraine, but once they are out, they will be broken into pieces".

While the possibility of Russia's defeat to Ukraine followed by President Vladimir Putin's ouster can not be completely ruled out, the chances of such an outcome appear remote at the moment. Putin still has a lot of options. He has not yet used the full strength of the Russian military. He can bomb Ukraine into stone age, much like what the Soviets and the Americans did to Afghanistan. The nuclear-armed Russian military remains far more powerful than the Ukrainian military, even one backed by vast amounts of western money, technology and armaments. Putin will almost certainly escalate the war in Ukraine to achieve his objective of annexation of the eastern parts of the country into the Russian Federation. Putin also enjoys the support of as many as 70% of Russians, according to surveys conducted as recently as June, 2022. Besides, the vast majority of Russians have disdain for Gorbachev who was very popular in the West. The Russians would reject anyone who's even remotely similar to Gorbachev.

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Paul2

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The mighty Russian military's recent string of losses to the much smaller Ukrainian forces are bringing back memories of the humiliating Russian defeat at the hands of the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Communist Party leaders who presided over the disgraceful Soviet exit were soon ousted from power and replaced by Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev's attempts to reform the Soviet system resulted in its complete collapse. The Soviet Union then ceased to exist by 1991. Could something similar happen to the Russian Federation now?

Mikhail Gorbachev (Left) with Vladimir Putin



Some people in Ukraine and elsewhere in the West do believe that Ukraine will be another Afghanistan for the Russians. For example, Pakistani-Ukrainian billionaire Mohammad Zahoor believes “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia". Talking with Arab News, he said: “This is time, actually, for us not to keep quiet. We have to take sides". Zahoor told Arab News that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have consequences for Russia similar to the fallout from the Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989, which drastically weakened Russia's military and economy. “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia,” he said. “I don’t know how many years they are going to be in Ukraine, but once they are out, they will be broken into pieces".

While the possibility of Russia's defeat to Ukraine followed by President Vladimir Putin's ouster can not be completely ruled out, the chances of such an outcome appear remote at the moment. Putin still has a lot of options. He has not yet used the full strength of the Russian military. He can bomb Ukraine into stone age, much like what the Soviets and the Americans did to Afghanistan. The nuclear-armed Russian military remains far more powerful than the Ukrainian military, even one backed by vast amounts of western money, technology and armaments. Putin will almost certainly escalate the war in Ukraine to achieve his objective of annexation of the eastern parts of the country into the Russian Federation. Putin also enjoys the support of as many as 70% of Russians, according to surveys conducted as recently as June, 2022. Besides, the vast majority of Russians have disdain for Gorbachev who was very popular in the West. The Russians would reject anyone who's even remotely similar to Gorbachev.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistani-American Banker Heads SWIFT, the World's Largest Interbank Payment System

Ukraine Resists Russia Alone: A Tale of West's Broken Promises

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Russia's Defeat in Afghanistan

West's Technological Edge in Geopolitical Competition

Time For India to Rethink its Military Doctrine

Ukraine's Muslims Oppose Russia

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network



Grobachev was a hardcore Marxist, and a hardliner. Only after the crisis broke USSR's back, he did a very sudden 180° turn.
 

Paul2

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CPSU of 197X — a grand mafia clan
Kremlin of 202X — a thuggee family

Much fewer people wielding power in general, and the belief in "The Boss" being much more fundamental to the system.

If you google it up, the formal line of succession of power in Russia is stuffed with political eunuchs who have no chances to seize power.

Yeltsin surrounded himself with strongmen as an insurance, Putin surrounded himself with weakmen as a preemptive mitigation measure.

Yeltsin waged wars with 6% approval rating, while Putin can't get his government to work with his supposedly high ratings.

Putin has inherited the power from the Godfather, and instantly proceeded to kill-off capable people who would've been his 2nd in command, realising his own incapacity.

It was 20 years into his reign, when he considered himself to be finally equalling his past boss in power, but when time came to test it, we seen what we seen. Powerful in terms that nobody can displace him out of Kremlin, and formal authority — yes, strong in terms of own capacity, and that of his team — no.

Reminds me of Xi, really.
 

hualushui

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傻瓜过敏.jpg
 

BHAN85

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It's inevitable.

Russing elite supported Putin because they had good life in the West and they can buying Western luxury things.

But if that is over, then support to Putin is over too.
 

Battlion25

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It's inevitable.

Russing elite supported Putin because they had good life in the West and they can buying Western luxury things.

But if that is over, then support to Putin is over too.

It is not going to happen while Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev are around. I believe they will hand over the reign once they have retired to people from their camp that are patriotic russians to dominate the political arena of Russia and their younger camp members are hardened by this situation and have seen the Russophobia which will make them hardliners..

I think some who are extremely far-right hardliners will come to power much worse then putin and when everything is considered Putin is a centralist but once the hardliners come you will notice inmediately they will flatline ukraine
 

BHAN85

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It is not going to happen while Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev are around. I believe they will hand over the reign once they have retired to people from their camp that are patriotic russians to dominate the political arena of Russia and their younger camp members are hardened by this situation and have seen the Russophobia which will make them hardliners..

I think some who are extremely far-right hardliners will come to power much worse then putin and when everything is considered Putin is a centralist but once the hardliners come you will notice inmediately they will flatline ukraine
It's easy said that way.

But it's harder saying to a oligarch wife that she can no longer buy Louis Vuitton purses.

They dont accept it, they dont care about Ukraine or war issues.

They just want money, western luxuries and live like Western rich people.

That is the base of Russian regime, and without that, regime will be unstable.

The West knows that perfectly when they put sanctions, that's target.
 

mulj

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Russia lost the war but Ukraina will not be able to liberate all occupied teritory, that is pretty much clear now. So i expect some serious negotiatons in upcoming months.
Wiith loss of Kherson all russian position regarding Crimea is meaningless they will have to transport water again there.

These idiots should read book of two from history, they do not remember how Stalin ditched there republic once he made deals with hitler.
 

Beast

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CPSU of 197X — a grand mafia clan
Kremlin of 202X — a thuggee family

Much fewer people wielding power in general, and the belief in "The Boss" being much more fundamental to the system.

If you google it up, the formal line of succession of power in Russia is stuffed with political eunuchs who have no chances to seize power.

Yeltsin surrounded himself with strongmen as an insurance, Putin surrounded himself with weakmen as a preemptive mitigation measure.

Yeltsin waged wars with 6% approval rating, while Putin can't get his government to work with his supposedly high ratings.

Putin has inherited the power from the Godfather, and instantly proceeded to kill-off capable people who would've been his 2nd in command, realising his own incapacity.

It was 20 years into his reign, when he considered himself to be finally equalling his past boss in power, but when time came to test it, we seen what we seen. Powerful in terms that nobody can displace him out of Kremlin, and formal authority — yes, strong in terms of own capacity, and that of his team — no.

Reminds me of Xi, really.
Xi is in better position, world second largest economy. A strong military and a solid base build up. Putin will love to replace seat with Xi. If Putin has PLA and an economy as strong as China, he would have crushed Ukraine in just few days.
 

Paul2

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Xi is in better position, world second largest economy. A strong military and a solid base build up. Putin will love to replace seat with Xi. If Putin has PLA and an economy as strong as China, he would have crushed Ukraine in just few days.

It's not like he had no money. He had one of world's biggest FX reserve, and he had way more authority to use it as his own, with less restrictions than even Xi would have.
 

Beast

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It's not like he had no money. He had one of world's biggest FX reserve, and he had way more authority to use it as his own, with less restrictions than even Xi would have.
Yup, like needed to buy Iran drone to support his flattening campaign against Ukraine. If it happened in Soviet Union times. The western will laugh off their jaws!
 

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