• Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Could India's Missile Defence Trigger A Nuclear War With Pakistan?

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by aasan, Aug 7, 2018.

  1. aasan

    aasan BANNED

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    India says it has successfully tested an interceptor capable of shooting down ballistic missiles.(Pralay is based on Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) the Exo-Atmospheric kill vehicle of AAD project)

    But could this trigger a nuclear war with Pakistan?

    On August 2, the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) -- India's equivalent of the Pentagon's DARPA research agency -- launched an Advanced Area Defence (AAD) missile from Abdul Kalam island off India's eastern coast.

    "The endo-atmospheric missile, capable of intercepting incoming targets at an altitude of 15 to 25 kilometers [9 to 16 miles] was launched against multiple simulated targets of 1,500 kilometer [932 mile]-class ballistic missiles," according to the DRDO announcement.

    "One target among simultaneously incoming multiple targets was selected on real time, the weapon system radars tracked the target and the missile locked on to it and intercepted the target with a high degree of accuracy. The complete event including the engagement and interception was tracked by a number of electro-optical tracking systems, radars and telemetry stations. All the mission objectives were successfully met."

    India's missile defence program is a two-tiered system: the Prithvi missile (derived from the Prithvi tactical ballistic missile) for exo-atmospheric intercepts in outer space, before they near the target, and the Advanced Area Defence missile for endo-atmospheric intercepts within the Earth's atmosphere, in the terminal phase when the target warhead is making its final descent.

    In that sense, it is similar to the 1960s U.S. Anti-Ballistic Missile System, which used Safeguard and Sprint missiles, or any integrated air defence system. A long-range interceptor to take out the incoming missile far from the target, and a short-range point defence weapon to destroy any missile that penetrates the long-range screen.

    Previous tests of Indian interceptors targeted short-range Prithvi ballistic missiles on a trajectory that mimicked medium-range missiles. The Diplomat magazine suggests that the dummy target this time could have been an Agni, an intermediate-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

    Indian press trumpeted that India's missile defence is a homegrown program developed by India, rather than imported from Russia and America as are so many Indian weapons such as jet fighters and tanks. That's no small point of pride for the world's second most-populous nation, once the poster child for poverty, and now the world's sixth-largest economy.

    Interestingly, while India boasts of developing its own missile defence system, it is also buying Russian S-400 air defence missiles capable of intercepting missiles as well as aircraft.

    "The S-400 acquisition, which has some utility for missile defence, suggests that India is interested in the capability and not merely letting DRDO have a science project," Christopher Clary, a professor of international relations at State University of New York Albany, told The National Interest .

    But there is another danger with Indian missile defence, as history shows. When America and the Soviet Union developed anti-missile systems in the 1960s, the opposing superpower either built more missiles, or increased the number of warheads on existing missiles, to saturate enemy defences.

    So What Will Pakistan Do?

    India and Pakistan "are already in an arms race for all intents and purposes and have been so for some time," Georgetown University professor C. Christine Fair, who has written on the Pakistani military, told The National Interest.

    "There is, of course more nuance: Pakistan has the world's fast growing nuclear weapons program. India has chosen not to reciprocate in growing its stockpiles. Pakistan has and is trying to acquire tactical nuclear weapons while India has demurred."

    "Pakistan will field more warheads on more delivery vehicles than it would in the absence of BMD [ballistic missile defence], Clary says.

    "Pakistan could develop multiple warheads for its current ballistic missiles, or develop short-range tactical nuclear weapons and cruise missiles that are harder to intercept."

    In turn, a Pakistani buildup might prompt an India buildup, sparking a vicious cycle reminiscent of the Cold War.

    Ironically, India is notorious for developing home-grown weapons, such as aircraft and tanks, that take much longer to develop than expected, and are plagued with problems when they are fielded. But as always with nuclear weapons and missile defence, perception is everything.

    "The biggest problem from India's side is that it all too frequently announced that it has a capability which mobilizes Pakistan to innovate when in fact India is a long way from achieving the stated capability but Pakistan has already developed a counter measure," Fair warns.
     
  2. SirHatesALot

    SirHatesALot SENIOR MEMBER

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    No any amount of BMD is mostly useless in Indo-Pak Scenario cause targets are very close to each other.
     
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  3. Yaseen1

    Yaseen1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    it can if india has confidence in its bmd but even if missile is intercepted above india airspace nuclear warhead explosion at time of intercept and debris falling on earth will cause equal damage
     
  4. aasan

    aasan BANNED

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    surface to surface ballistic missiles for too near and too far...both are usually not effective
    because in too near places like Amritsar , there is always a risk of trajectory deflections...
    if its for far cities like....Kolkata, Chennai , eastern and south India , its still manageable
    northern and western fronts wont be easy to save...because response time would be very less as well as it is difficult for a bmd system to be effective for dummy missiles.
    Delhi is also approximately 300 km far...wont be easy to save until strong bmd is deployed.
    for cruise missiles specially in case of pak....it wont be effective because of their high precision as well as speed capabilities...
    once full on war is there....then you can even destroy jets just after taking off....in the range of 400km...with s400
     
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  5. aasan

    aasan BANNED

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    I don't think so....could be the case if any of the cruise missiles are nuclear tipped...which is not the case right now...but for ballistic....until the explosion is triggered...there is no impact if shot down
     
  6. aasan

    aasan BANNED

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    well pak is little smart....we know we cant match India in conventional warfare...we know that
    but india can not attack us without locking horns with china first because of cpec..
    one more is that we havn't signed no first use agreement....so we can attack whenever we want....that's why india shits its balls...before doing anything...
    even in kargil...instructions were strict for indian army to not cross the borders...
     
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  7. Rollno21

    Rollno21 FULL MEMBER

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    No no I am brave ,but I won't fight you ,Pakistani logic 101 .
    Tell me why would you use NW if are sure you can defeat us conventionally.
    You won't use NW if you can defeat us.
    Only case you will use NW is when you know you don't have a chance,that's why I said no NW will be used unless Pakistan thinks it cannot handle India
     
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  8. snow lake

    snow lake BANNED

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    oh dear.....look who has drunk too much of the golden juice.
     
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  9. Rollno21

    Rollno21 FULL MEMBER

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    Since you claim you didn't have golden juice.you tell me if Pakistan believes it can take on India conventionally,if yes then as I said no NW will be used but if you think otherwise it's a different story
     
  10. Reichsmarschall

    Reichsmarschall SENIOR MEMBER

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    because some cancers need to be treated with radiations and india is one of such cancer
    its the world logic but anyways you are an Indian you wont understand not your fault
     
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  11. snow lake

    snow lake BANNED

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    Stupid man.....pakistan was carved out of india. Now go and learn a lesson....you boasted you will have tea at lahore gymkhana.....did you enjoy it. Now we will send you to hell....why shpuldnt we use everything at our disposal.....just like you have more troops and more aircraft and more tanks.....will you only use at par weapons....effing use your brain if you have one...does america fight the taliban with just an ak47
     
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  12. Rollno21

    Rollno21 FULL MEMBER

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    You cancer treatment example dsnt fit my friend,because doctor dsnt get killed in the process.
    My reason for there won't be any NW use still stands unless Pakistan feels it's no match to India

    So you feel Pakistan can take on India conventionally,that means what I said still stands true,there wont be any NW used.
     
  13. third eye

    third eye ELITE MEMBER

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    Why should missile defence trigger a nuclear war ?
     
  14. Feng Leng

    Feng Leng FULL MEMBER

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    India acquiring S-400 would be destabilizing and bad news for Pakistan.
     
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  15. snow lake

    snow lake BANNED

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    I think yoh are so stupid i wont answer any of ypur dumb questions..if india is so powerful why does pakistan occupy a land that wad once india...now dont bother me.