• Sunday, February 23, 2020

CNBC: China will this year surpass the US in total retail sales for the first time

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by Dungeness, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. Dungeness

    Dungeness SENIOR MEMBER

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    China will this year surpass the US in total retail sales for the first time: Forecast
    • China's total retail sales are set to grow 7.5 percent to $5.6 trillion, according to a forecast from eMarketer.
    • Retail sales in the United States will grow 3.3 percent to $5.5 trillion, the market research firm projected.
    Uptin Saiidi | @uptin
    Published 22 Hours AgoCNBC.com
    [​IMG]
    Getty Images
    Shoppers in Beijing, China

    China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world's top retail market in 2019, according to a report out this week from market research firm eMarketer.

    The world's most populous country is expected to see its total retail sales grow by 7.5 percent this year to $5.6 trillion, compared to 3.3 percent growth in the U.S. retail market to reach $5.5 trillion.

    Along with Chinese consumer's rising disposable incomes, there's also been rapid economic growth in second- and third-tier cities in China.


    Yet according to recent data, Chinese consumers are spending less, as many are concerned about the future. China's economy, meanwhile, grew 6.6 percent last year, which was the slowest pace in 28 years.

    While the retail sales growth rate for both U.S. and China are slowing, the Chinese growth rate is expected to exceed the U.S. growth rate through 2022, according to the eMarketer report.

    "The new Chinese generation are digital natives, at the same time, always looking for unique experiences," said Mark Lunt, group managing director of IT consultancy and services company JOS. As revenue from online sales channels continues to grow, he said, "traditional brick and mortar retailers extend consumers' choice through providing integrated, consistent customer experience across their digital and physical touch points."

    Lunt said part of China's retail growth is being driven by the likes of artificial intelligence, big data, the so-called Internet of Things and cloud computing. He said such technologies will integrate online with offline retail channels to offer more personalized buying experiences.

    In 2019, China will account for nearly 56 percent of all online retail sales globally, with that figure expected to
    exceed 63 percent by 2022, according to the eMarketer report. The share of the U.S. market, meanwhile was projected to drop from 17 percent to 15 percent in that same time.

    The world's largest retailer, Alibaba, is expected to see its retail sales in China grow by nearly 20 percent in 2019, according to eMarketer, but its total share of China's e-commerce sales was forecast to fall to just 53 percent this year, compared to nearly 70 percent in 2016.

    Alibaba has opened numerous tech-enabled brick and mortar stores in the recent years, including more than 100 grocery stores under the Hema brand.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/chi...retail-sales-for-the-first-time-forecast.html
     
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  2. zectech

    zectech SENIOR MEMBER

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    Trade balance is apart of GDP, trump wants to dump -350B USD onto Chinese GDP in 2020, dropping Chinese GDP significantly, trade imbalances is already lowering Chinese GDP.

    And force Chinese to buy overpriced Amerikan crap. This too will hurt consumer confidence and increase inflation. Increase the cost of borrowing, and make capital less available in China. Cause massive trouble for the Chinese government and Chinese people.

    What a tr/dump of a deal.
     
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  3. Dungeness

    Dungeness SENIOR MEMBER

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    China's GDP is about 2/3 of US, but the total retail is higher. What does this mean for regular folks, anyone can shed a light?
     
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  4. TaiShang

    TaiShang ELITE MEMBER

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    "The coming collapse of China," extended 7th edition, may help recover the slow-growing US retail sales.
     
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  5. zectech

    zectech SENIOR MEMBER

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    Investment and Government purchases is what is larger in America, adding to GDP.

    If someone earns an income and sits on the cash, it is not in the GDP.

    So if Chinese are like the Germans in storing 500 euro banknotes under their bed, this is not GDP, they would have to spend it on consumption (including services) to make it GDP. Cash is not seen as an investment, they would have to buy bonds or stocks or gold or other investments.

    Since USA is a big financial center, the investment into America adds to GDP.

    And I am pretty sure foreign investment into the host country adds to the GDP of the host country.
     
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  6. TaiShang

    TaiShang ELITE MEMBER

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    25-Jan-2019

    China to become world's largest retail market in 2019: eMarketer
    CGTN


    [​IMG]

    China may overtake the U.S. as the world's biggest retail market this year, according to a report published Wednesday by research firm eMarketer.

    The report predicted that China's total retail sales will grow 7.5 percent to reach 5.636 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019, while that of the U.S. will grow 3.3 percent to 5.529 trillion U.S. dollars.

    The sale boom, according to the report, is a result of China's rising incomes and thriving e-commerce.

    "In recent years, consumers in China have experienced rising incomes, catapulting millions into the new middle class," said Monica Peart, senior forecasting director at eMarketer. "The result has been a marked rise in purchasing power and average spending per person."

    E-commerce is a major driver of China's retail economy, accounting for almost one-fifth of the country's total retail sales in 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

    On China's annual shopping holiday, Singles' Day, e-commerce giant Alibaba scooped over 10 billion yuan (1.47 billion U.S. dollars) in just two minutes. Its 24-hour sales amounted to a record of 31.46 billion U.S. dollars, exceeding that of Cyber Monday and Black Friday combined.

    By the end of this year, China will have 55.8 percent of all online retail sales globally, with that figure expected to exceed 63 percent by 2022, according to the report. It also predicted that the U.S. share of the global e-commerce market is expected to drop to 15 percent by 2022.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514f35516a4d32457a6333566d54/index.html
     
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  7. zectech

    zectech SENIOR MEMBER

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    Make it all in China! And increase growth and earnings and sales and growth and earnings and sales and so on.
     
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  8. Char

    Char FULL MEMBER

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    larger population in China
     
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  9. Dungeness

    Dungeness SENIOR MEMBER

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    Large population with purchasing power and will to spend. That's why Chinese will spend more on-line than the rest of world combined this year.
     
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  10. kankan326

    kankan326 FULL MEMBER

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    Either America's econoic power is overrated or China's economic power is relatively underrated. Quite obvious fact.
     
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  11. Dungeness

    Dungeness SENIOR MEMBER

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    Or it could be both.
     
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  12. hiseen

    hiseen FULL MEMBER

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    China's economic growth is generally dominated by domestic demand. Among them, the role of consumption as the main driving force of economic growth is further consolidated. In 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole year was 380.87 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% over the previous year, and maintained rapid growth. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 76.2%, an increase of 18.6 percentage points over the previous year and higher than the total capital formation of 43.8 percentage points.

    From 155.9 billion yuan in 1978 to more than 38 trillion yuan in 2018, the average annual growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods is about 15%, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has remained above 50% since 2015. The trend of upgrading consumption-driven upgrading is increasingly evident, creating a huge space and potential for promoting a strong domestic market.
     
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  13. the_messenger

    the_messenger FULL MEMBER

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    I think it means China GDP in normina term is greatly under-rate, perhaps China is hiding at least 30% of their GDP.
    The real GDP number may even more because China is spending less and have very high saving rate.
     
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  14. Han Patriot

    Han Patriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    As per Indians, we are not a consumer driven economy and they are the 'LARGEST MIDDLE CLASS ON EARTH'. =)
     
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  15. Dungeness

    Dungeness SENIOR MEMBER

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    My recent contribution to US Total Retail:a $234 eye ointment. :(

    upload_2019-1-25_10-15-23.png
     
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