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samsara

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From Eva 郑 عائشة @evazhengll on 2021.01.10:

P神预测贴
(lit. a god or deity's prediction)

View attachment 705733



The Forecast & Speculation by peishen2020 on China's aircraft development for the 14th Five-Year Plan (dated on 2021-01-09):

The 2021 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This post is to discuss the forecast and speculation of China's aircraft development in the next five years. Just “floor tiles lead to jade” “只是地砖引玉” (I don't really get this phrase, but I guess it means "basic or limited revealed info"). Let's talk about it, and add more info so I can get 500,000 yuan :-) [what a cool persuasion to other fellow members while carrying a big stick... :laugh: lol]

1) Fighter Aircraft

• The first flight of J-20B two-seater multipurpose model in 2021

• The first flight of J-20C modified fighter with WS-15 engine (Emei) in 2022

• The first flight of J-15B electromagnetic catapult carrier-based fighter in 2021

• The first flight of the next generation carrier-based fighter (new naval type) in 2021

• The first flight of J-15BD electromagnetic catapult carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft in 2023

• The first flight of J-20BD two-seater electronic warfare model in 2025



2) Helicopters / Rotor-Wing Aircraft

• The first flight of AC-313A, 14-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2022

• The first flight of Z-20 special combat 10-ton special operations/assault helicopter in 2022

• The first flight of Z-X8, 14~15-ton heavy military helicopter (military version of AC-313A) in 2023

• The first flight of the next generation of 10-ton heavy armed helicopter in 2022

• The first flight of AC-332, 4-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2022

• The first flight of AC-322, 2~3-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2023

• The first flight of AC-352, 7-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2023

• The first flight of the heavy military helicopter of the 35~40-ton class in 2025

• The first flight of a large tiltrotor demonstrator aircraft in 2023

• The first flight of a high-speed propulsion full-scale verification aircraft in 2025



3) Drones / Bombers

• The first flight of the last improved model of the H-6, i.e. H-6X, in 2021

The first flight of the H-20 subsonic stealth long-range strategic bomber in 2023

• The first flight of the long-range stealth attack aircraft, a strategic and tactical strike aircraft for the Navy and Air Force, in 2024

• The first flight of the 攻击-20 (“Gongji-20” / “GJ-20” ??) long-range stealth integrated ground attack aircraft in 2023

• The first flight of the Rainbow-7 / CH-7 stealth attack aircraft in 2021

• The first flight of the Tengdun / TD UAV, a large commercial drone with a load of 20 tons, in 2023



4) Special Aircraft

?

5) Civil / Passenger Aircraft

• The first flight of the CR-929, a large long-haul, wide-body twinjet passenger plane, in 2025

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Just like each of us, some netizen commented: How good were Peishen's predictions?

The straight answer, just give it some time and see, some of the predictions will reveal themselves within 2021!



Twin-seat variation & domestic engine-equipped version of J-20 make official appearances (2021-01-10)

Z-20 to be China's most-delivered military helicopter, multiple variants expected (2020-11-19)
By sinophilia /SDF

ORGANIZING BY YEAR for simpler reading as the years go by! (Assuming we find out the reliability of the user and/or realize some of the predictions soon.)

2021: 5 new aircraft = 3 variants + 2 clean-sheet designs

  • H-6X bomber
  • J-20B two-seater fighter
  • J-35 carrier-based fighter
  • J-15B EM-catapult carrier-based fighter
  • Rainbow-7 / CH-7 stealth attack aircraft
2022: 5 new aircraft = 1 variant + 4 clean-sheet designs
  • J-20C with WS-15
  • AC-313A, 14-ton advanced civil helicopter
  • Z-20 special combat 10-ton special operations/assault helicopter
  • Next generation of 10-ton heavy armed helicopter
  • AC-332, 4-ton advanced civil helicopter
2023: 8 new aircraft = 1 variant + 7 clean-sheet designs
  • H-20 subsonic stealth long-range strategic bomber
  • J-15BD electromagnetic catapult carrier-based electronic warfare
  • Z-X8, 14~15-ton heavy military helicopter (military version of AC-313A)
  • AC-322, 2~3-ton advanced civil helicopter
  • AC-352, 7-ton advanced civil helicopter
  • Large tiltrotor demonstrator aircraft
  • 攻击-20 (“Gongji-20” / “GJ-20” ??) long-range stealth integrated ground attack aircraft
  • Tengdun / TD UAV, a large commercial drone with a load of 20 tons
2024: 1 new aircraft = 0 variants + 1 clean-sheet design
  • long-range stealth attack aircraft, a strategic and tactical strike aircraft for the Navy and Air Force
2025: 3 new aircraft = 0 variants + 3 clean-sheet designs
  • CR-929, a large long-haul, wide-body twinjet passenger plane
  • J-20BD two-seater electronic warfare model
  • Heavy military helicopter of the 35~40-ton class
  • High-speed propulsion full-scale verification aircraft
So apparently, 5 bombers/attacks, 4 fighters (2 carrier-based), 5 military helicopters, 1 tiltrotor, 2 EW (1 carrier-based), 1 civil passenger plane, 4 civil helicopters.
For a total of 22 aircraft (17 clean-sheet designs), 18 of which (13 clean-sheet designs) in the next < 3 years.
So, this seems beyond the wildest wet dreams of any fanboy of any military ever. Here is to hoping!


~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Needless to say that above "predictions" should be taken with a grain of salt... but we may verify first with the 2021 to see which one comes to the fruitful. Until that moment, we'll park the info here... just keep in mind!
 

samsara

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China-US rivalry: how the Gulf War sparked Beijing’s military revolution

• In 1991, the People’s Liberation Army was ‘backwards’ compared to the might of America, experts say

• But the US’s demolition of Iraq ignited a modernisation programme that has turned the PLA into a modern, technology-driven fighting force

By Liu Zhen in Beijing | The South China Morning Post

Published: 8:00am, 18 Jan, 2021

Iraq had no answer to America’s massive air power during the Gulf War.jpg

Iraq had no answer to America’s massive air power during the Gulf War. Photo: Getty Images

MONDAY (2021-01-18) MARKS THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF OPERATION DESERT STORM, when American-led coalition forces invaded Iraq. The Gulf War sparked 30 YEARS OF CHAOS AND TURMOIL in the once powerful Middle Eastern country but also served as a RUDE AWAKENING for China’s military leaders.

With the technology and firepower on show during the conflict – precision bombing, satellite guidance, missile interception, air-to-surface strike to eliminate tanks, electronic warfare, one-way transparency on the battlefield, stealth bombers – the Gulf War was a “psychological nuclear attack” on China, observers say.

The event helped to KICK START China’s MILITARY MODERNISATION and led to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) narrowing the gap with the US military so much that it is now considered a “STRATEGIC THREAT”.

Desert Storm, which lasted six weeks, marked the dawn of a warfare revolution, showed the BACKWARDNESS of the PLA at that time and sparked anxiety regarding national security, experts say.

“It showed China HOW A WAR should be fought and forced the Chinese military to SKIP the mechanised stage and JUMP STRAIGHT to develop information technologies,” said Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military expert.

“From military theories to the building of the army, to the weapons and equipment, to the relevant technologies, we realised it was ALL DECADES BEHIND the Americans.”


Troops from the US 1st Cavalry Division are deployed across the Saudi desert during preparatio...jpg

Troops from the US 1st Cavalry Division are deployed across the Saudi desert during preparations for the Gulf War. Photo: AP

Antony Wong Tong, a Macau-based military analyst, said old PLA doctrines like “People’s war” were PROVEN OUTDATED by the Gulf War, and showed that after the 1989 Tiananmen turmoil, China had once again become an imaginary enemy of the US, which made the problem more imminent for Beijing.

“SINCE THE 1990s the PLA has thoroughly SWITCHED to the path of professionalisation and modernisation,” he said.

THE YEAR 1991 saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, and the military and political pressure on China dramatically increased. Aware of its own vulnerability and weakness, China adopted a “keeping a low profile and biding time” approach to diplomacy, while putting all of its effort into development.

IN THE AFTERSHOCK OF THE GULF WAR, then Chinese leader Jiang Zemin began to promote the idea that the PLA should focus on building “modern regional warfare capabilities under hi-tech conditions”, “complete the dual historical tasks of mechanisation and informationisation” and “achieve the modernisation of the army BY LEAPS FORWARD”, according to Tang Zhichao, who specialises in Middle East studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping, China used the hi-tech American weapons it had seen in the war – like precision missiles, missile defence systems and stealth warplanes – as a GUIDEBOOK for its development. Tactics like JOINT OPERATIONS between different forces and the organisation and TECHNOLOGIES needed to realise them were also given great attention.

We translated a lot of the US military’s operational regulations and military reports, and began to build the army by copying their models and standards
Jin Yinan, retired PLA major general
Retired PLA major general Jin Yinan spoke of the impact the war had had in his memoir.

“At one point, we translated a lot of the US military’s operational regulations and military reports, and began to build the army by copying their models and standards.”

Indeed, just as the proverb says: "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".

Under Jiang Zemin, the PLA slashed 700,000 troops in the 1990s and 2000s. In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping cut a further 300,000 and initiated MASSIVE RESTRUCTURING and a REFORM of the command chain.

The military’s budget started rising fast in 1999 with double-digit growth for more than a decade, in line with the soaring Chinese economy. By 2019, China’s annual defence spending was the second-biggest in the world, reaching US$176 billion, compared to America’s US$732 billion. Beijing allocated a budget of US$178.6 billion for 2020 [compared to US's approximately $721.5 billion].

Tomahawk cruise missile lights up the night sky as it is fired from the USS Wisconsin during t...jpg

A Tomahawk cruise missile lights up the night sky as it is fired from the USS Wisconsin during the Gulf War in January 1991. Photo: AP

The Chinese army last year announced the completion of the mechanisation of its Ground Force. But even before then the PLA was ahead of the US in some areas, like shipbuilding, land-based conventional missiles and integrated air defence systems, according to the Pentagon’s 2020 “China Military Power Report”.

The PLA Navy is the world’s second largest after the US by total displacement. It has about 350 ships and submarines, including more than 130 major surface combatants. The US Navy has 293 ships. Moreover, most of China’s best ships were built after 2010 so feature the latest equipment and technologies.

By comparison, IN 1991, the PLA Navy was a near-shore defence force whose largest ship was a 3,600-tonne destroyer Type 051.

The PLA Air Force is now the third largest in the world, with more than 2,500 aircraft and about 2,000 combat aircraft, most of which are third- and fourth-generation warplanes, comparable to Western air forces. China is only the second country in the world to have developed a fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-20.

China is only the second country in the world to have developed a fifth-generation stealth fig...jpg

China is only the second country in the world to have developed a fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-20. Photo: AFP

IN 1991, the best planes in the PLA Air Force were the J-7 – developed from a 1950s’s MiG-21 – and the domestically developed J-8, both of which were second-generation. The US aircraft involved in the Gulf War were mostly fourth-generation F15s, F-16s and F/A-18s, while the military decided Lockheed Martin’s prototype Y-22 would become the world’s first fifth-generation stealth fighter – the F-22.

THE PLA ROCKET FORCE has more than 1,250 ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges from 500km to 5,500km, which the US almost did not have due to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. THE ROCKET FORCE has greatly upgraded and expanded its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) inventory IN THE PAST 30 YEARS and now leads the world in the deployment of HYPERSONIC glide missiles with its DF-17.

“Chinese equipment may not be as good as the Americans in certain specifications, but at least it is of the same generation of development. There is no longer the generational gap there was in the 1990s,” Ni said.

The Gulf War played a VERY IMPORTANT ROLE in STIMULATING the progress of China’s military modernisation, Tang said.

DF-17 missiles take part in a military parade in Beijing in 2019 to mark the 70th anniversary ...jpg

DF-17 missiles take part in a military parade in Beijing in 2019 to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Photo: AFP

Although China’s state television did not broadcast live reports on Desert Storm, it was still closely watched.

“Like myself, the prediction of most military personnel in China at the beginning of the war was that the United States would repeat the Soviet Union’s failure in Afghanistan,” said Liu Dingping, an officer with the PLA Second Artillery Command (now the Rocket Force) wrote in a newspaper article at the time. “But … we were wrong.”

The US-led coalition flew more than 100,000 SORTIES and DROPPED 88,500 TONNES OF BOMBS, which stripped Iraq of its defences. The fact it took the coalition just 42 days – including just 100 hours on the ground – to wipe out what was AT THE TIME the world’s FOURTH-LARGEST ARMY was telling, experts say.

“If it was us being attacked by the Americans at that time, the result might not have been any better,” said Ni, who was a 36-year-old military history researcher in 1991.

Many of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s soldiers were veterans of the Iran-Iraq War and as well as Chinese weapons – Type 69 tanks, Type 63 armoured personnel carriers and J-7 fighters – were armed with advanced Soviet T-72 tanks and MiG-25, MiG-29 fighters.

But the US had the world’s FIRST OPERATIONAL STEALTH WARPLANE – the F-117, and fourth-generation fighters, the F-15, F-16 and F/A-18, as the backbone of its air campaign. Moreover, the squadrons of reconnaissance, surveillance, electronic-warfare, aerial refuelling tanker aircraft were TOTAL STRANGERS to the Chinese.

Many Iraqi troops, seen here being visited by Saddam Hussein (left) after their invasion of Ku...jpg

Many Iraqi troops, seen here being visited by Saddam Hussein (left) after their invasion of Kuwait in 1990, were veterans of the war with Iran. Photo: AFP

Wong said the PLA had never imagined that the coalition would be able to win with almost nothing but air power.

“It was as SHOCKING as a PSYCHOLOGICAL ATOMIC BOMB on the Chinese military, who still believed in Soviet-style tactics from the 1960s and 1970s,” he said.

Iraqi forces blew up oil wells as they evacuated from Kuwait near the end of the Gulf War 1320...jpg

Iraqi forces blew up oil wells as they evacuated from Kuwait near the end of the Gulf War. Photo: Getty Images

Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said the conflict reminded the Chinese of the RULE OF THE JUNGLE: “FALL BEHIND AND YOU WILL BE BEATEN”.

“China ALSO LEARNED from the Gulf War that the US had established its dominance and hegemony THROUGH MILITARY MIGHT. The US could beat you whenever they want to,” he said.

The PLA at that time also realised it had fallen behind its number one imaginary enemy – Taiwan – in terms of advanced technology and weaponry. The Taiwanese independence movement had been growing since then, and especially after the Strait Crises in 1995 and 1996, when the PLA stepped back when two US aircraft carrier strike groups intervened, Song said.

“So given the CONSTANT ACCUMULATION of external and internal demands, coupled with the model effect of the Gulf War, the PLA were DEEPLY AWARE of the importance of strengthening its ability and improving its readiness for war,” he said.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Interestingly, one of the most popular comment by a reader posted at the commentary section with more than 110 comments so far:

“China needs to vastly ramp up its nuclear deterrent to thousands of warheads on a nuclear triad. We should learn from Russia. They built the so-called "doomsday" weapon. China should build one too. Before the US gets any "ideas", our goal is to quash those wrong ideas.”



Another reader reminds readers of the bleak reality and those deceiving slogan and ideology:


Had Iraq not been destroyed by the US embargoes and war over 30 years ago, today with its rich oil resources, Iraq, the land of Mesopotamia, would have been a modern country at least comparable to the Gulf states, among the most developed ones in the Middle East. The Gulf War had destroyed the livelihood of the Iraqi people and taken away their progress and happy lives, sent the country back to the backwardness and poverty, out of the blue, they have become one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and is still struggling to rebuild their homeland.

Indeed, some of the most prominent targets during their war on Iraq was the deliberate bombing of the scientific facilities, including universities, and even assassinating those Iraqi scientists.
 
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lcloo

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One thing China should never ignore is that US acted on BELIEVING in unconfirmed rumour (later proved to be FAKE) of Iraq possessed WMD (weapon of Mass Destruction). They started a war with fake news then, they can still do it again in future.

And US is the center of propagating fake news for political gains, especially against China in the last 4 years right up to just 2 or 3 days before from Biden becoming the president.
 

ozranger

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One thing China should never ignore is that US acted on BELIEVING in unconfirmed rumour (later proved to be FAKE) of Iraq possessed WMD (weapon of Mass Destruction). They started a war with fake news then, they can still do it again in future.

And US is the center of propagating fake news for political gains, especially against China in the last 4 years right up to just 2 or 3 days before from Biden becoming the president.
The core system of the US, AKA the deep state, didn't and will never simply believe in unconfirmed rumours. The launch of the 2nd Iraqi war is completely intentional with very fine planning in order to further strengthen petrodollars and also create extra rewards for America's arms industry.
 
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Beast

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The real catalyst is not Gulf war I but 1996 PRC/Taiwan strait crisis. China who never view US as future enemy suffer a rude awakening when they have nothing to stop US CVN if crisis really started with a conventional warfare.

Jiang Zemin despite very corrupted leader kickstart China real military modernization program.
 

LKJ86

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Xi Inspects Air Force Troops in Guizhou Ahead of Spring Festival
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday inspected an aviation division of the Air Force stationed in southwestern Guizhou Province ahead of the Spring Festival, or the Chinese Lunar New Year.

 

Deino

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Me again with a strange request: I'm looking for an image - if my memory is correct - showing several PLAAF soldiers (might have been cadets ?) standing in uniform forming a "70" for the 70th anniversary?

... I can't find it anymore.

Best and thanks
 

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