By sinophilia /SDFFrom Eva 郑 عائشة @evazhengll on 2021.01.10:
P神预测贴
(lit. a god or deity's prediction)
View attachment 705733
The Forecast & Speculation by peishen2020 on China's aircraft development for the 14th Five-Year Plan (dated on 2021-01-09):
The 2021 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This post is to discuss the forecast and speculation of China's aircraft development in the next five years. Just “floor tiles lead to jade” “只是地砖引玉” (I don't really get this phrase, but I guess it means "basic or limited revealed info"). Let's talk about it, and add more info so I can get 500,000 yuan[what a cool persuasion to other fellow members while carrying a big stick...
lol]
1) Fighter Aircraft
• The first flight of J-20B two-seater multipurpose model in 2021
• The first flight of J-20C modified fighter with WS-15 engine (Emei) in 2022
• The first flight of J-15B electromagnetic catapult carrier-based fighter in 2021
• The first flight of the next generation carrier-based fighter (new naval type) in 2021
• The first flight of J-15BD electromagnetic catapult carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft in 2023
• The first flight of J-20BD two-seater electronic warfare model in 2025
2) Helicopters / Rotor-Wing Aircraft
• The first flight of AC-313A, 14-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2022
• The first flight of Z-20 special combat 10-ton special operations/assault helicopter in 2022
• The first flight of Z-X8, 14~15-ton heavy military helicopter (military version of AC-313A) in 2023
• The first flight of the next generation of 10-ton heavy armed helicopter in 2022
• The first flight of AC-332, 4-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2022
• The first flight of AC-322, 2~3-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2023
• The first flight of AC-352, 7-ton advanced civil helicopter in 2023
• The first flight of the heavy military helicopter of the 35~40-ton class in 2025
• The first flight of a large tiltrotor demonstrator aircraft in 2023
• The first flight of a high-speed propulsion full-scale verification aircraft in 2025
3) Drones / Bombers
• The first flight of the last improved model of the H-6, i.e. H-6X, in 2021
• The first flight of the H-20 subsonic stealth long-range strategic bomber in 2023
• The first flight of the long-range stealth attack aircraft, a strategic and tactical strike aircraft for the Navy and Air Force, in 2024
• The first flight of the 攻击-20 (“Gongji-20” / “GJ-20” ??) long-range stealth integrated ground attack aircraft in 2023
• The first flight of the Rainbow-7 / CH-7 stealth attack aircraft in 2021
• The first flight of the Tengdun / TD UAV, a large commercial drone with a load of 20 tons, in 2023
4) Special Aircraft
?
5) Civil / Passenger Aircraft
• The first flight of the CR-929, a large long-haul, wide-body twinjet passenger plane, in 2025
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Just like each of us, some netizen commented: How good were Peishen's predictions?
The straight answer, just give it some time and see, some of the predictions will reveal themselves within 2021!
Twin-seat variation & domestic engine-equipped version of J-20 make official appearances (2021-01-10)
Z-20 to be China's most-delivered military helicopter, multiple variants expected (2020-11-19)
ORGANIZING BY YEAR for simpler reading as the years go by! (Assuming we find out the reliability of the user and/or realize some of the predictions soon.)
2021: 5 new aircraft = 3 variants + 2 clean-sheet designs
- H-6X bomber
- J-20B two-seater fighter
- J-35 carrier-based fighter
- J-15B EM-catapult carrier-based fighter
- Rainbow-7 / CH-7 stealth attack aircraft
- J-20C with WS-15
- AC-313A, 14-ton advanced civil helicopter
- Z-20 special combat 10-ton special operations/assault helicopter
- Next generation of 10-ton heavy armed helicopter
- AC-332, 4-ton advanced civil helicopter
- H-20 subsonic stealth long-range strategic bomber
- J-15BD electromagnetic catapult carrier-based electronic warfare
- Z-X8, 14~15-ton heavy military helicopter (military version of AC-313A)
- AC-322, 2~3-ton advanced civil helicopter
- AC-352, 7-ton advanced civil helicopter
- Large tiltrotor demonstrator aircraft
- 攻击-20 (“Gongji-20” / “GJ-20” ??) long-range stealth integrated ground attack aircraft
- Tengdun / TD UAV, a large commercial drone with a load of 20 tons
- long-range stealth attack aircraft, a strategic and tactical strike aircraft for the Navy and Air Force
- CR-929, a large long-haul, wide-body twinjet passenger plane
- J-20BD two-seater electronic warfare model
- Heavy military helicopter of the 35~40-ton class
- High-speed propulsion full-scale verification aircraft
For a total of 22 aircraft (17 clean-sheet designs), 18 of which (13 clean-sheet designs) in the next < 3 years.
So, this seems beyond the wildest wet dreams of any fanboy of any military ever. Here is to hoping!
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Needless to say that above "predictions" should be taken with a grain of salt... but we may verify first with the 2021 to see which one comes to the fruitful. Until that moment, we'll park the info here... just keep in mind!