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China's total population is growing while population of 180 cities is decreasing

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA, Mar 17, 2019.

  1. Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA

    Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA SENIOR MEMBER

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    China's total population is growing and urbanization rate reaches 60% while population of 180 cities is decreasing
    原创 集智俱乐部 2019-03-16 23:42:41
    https://www.toutiao.com/a6669014599582351880/
    [​IMG]
    Multiple cities with a decreasing population. The larger the word, the higher the proportion of the city's population loss in 2000-2010. (The cities with reduced population are mainly located in the underdeveloped areas of the internal areas of China)

    导语
    According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2019, China’s urban population accounted for 59.58% of the total population in 2018, which is close to 60%. However, relevant studies show that the population of hundreds of cities in China is decreasing. The phenomenon of "shrinkage". International research on contracting cities has been around for a long time, but in China, research on the mechanism and impact of urban contraction has just begun.
    国家统计局2019年1月公布的数据显示,2018年中国城镇人口占总人口比重为59.58%,已接近60%大关,但有关研究显示,中国有上百个城市的人口却在减少,出现了“收缩”现象。国际上关于收缩城市的研究由来已久,但在中国,对城市收缩的机制、影响的研究才刚刚起步。

    得益于大数据和开放数据,清华大学的龙瀛副研究员和中山大学的李郇教授等于2014年11月共同发起了“中国收缩城市研究网络”,并以齐齐哈尔为例揭示我国收缩城市的动因与现状。本文将详细介绍这一系列研究工作。

    近年来,收缩城市这一概念和议题越来越多的出现在新闻媒体报道,城市发展报告和学术期刊与会议中。目前学界对收缩城市的核心特征基本达成共识,并以居住人口的减少作为城市收缩程度的重要指标。

    国际上关于收缩城市的研究由来已久,其中以德国政府资助的项目(Shrinking Cities)最具代表性,该研究团队已经证实了在全球范围内人口超过100万的450个城市和地区,总体上已经失去了其城市人口的十分之一,其中案例不乏美国,欧洲和日本等地区的多个城市。

    [​IMG]
    来源:中国收缩城市研究网络

    德国学者近几年对全球收缩城市的现象和其背后的原因展开了开创性的探讨。总体上,国际上出现城市收缩的原因,主要在于:

    1. 全球化背景下从制造业到服务业的经济转型,以及由此造成的劳动力结构性失业和产业资本外流;

    2. 其他影响因素还包括郊区化、战争、自然或人为灾害、老龄化或低生育率,以及东欧国家社会主义制度的瓦解等。
    中国快速城市化中的

    “局部收缩”

    在中国,收缩现象还为增长的主流所忽视或不愿意看到,这导致了对城市收缩的机制、影响与判断的框架缺乏研究,在一个从扩展性规划向存量规划转变的过程中,城乡规划的理论和方法没有提供足够的储备,导致现在规划实践上人口必须增长的桎梏观念还鲜有突破。

    尽管近年来收缩城市这一概念的曝光度越来越高,中国城市的收缩现象还为增长的主流所忽视,也少有系统的研究。

    城市化虚胖

    事实上,在经历了三十多年的高速增长以后,推动中国城市发展的三驾马车出现了变化,全球金融危机引发的出口加工工业开始出现衰退,国内劳动力增长出现刘易斯拐点以及城市土地财政市场出现紧缩,中国城市发展正在脱离原有的快速发展轨道,出现了城市增长的分化。

    在推进城市化的进程中,可以看到土地上的城市化(城镇扩张),行政上的城镇化(乡镇更名为街道办事处),区域间大规模人口流动,以及大量住宅区空置率过高的鬼城现象。

    中国收缩城市研究

    那么中国快速城镇化进程是否存在局部收缩现象?答案是肯定的,而城市收缩这一城市发展新现象在中国有着怎样的表征,其背后的原因和规划启示又是什么?

    面对这样一个大问题,我们可能无法一窥全豹,但是身处这样一个大数据和开放数据的时代,我们可以利用许多方法,了解这个问题,并以此为起点,从问题是什么,深入到为什么,怎么办。

    [​IMG]
    收缩城市齐齐哈尔街景图 | 来源:龙瀛

    以此为背景,国内关注收缩城市研究的学者,如清华大学的龙瀛副研究员和中山大学的李郇教授,于2014年11月共同发起了“中国收缩城市研究网络”,旨在持续跟踪收缩城市方面的国际研究并开展国内的理论和实证研究工作。

    该研究网络于2015年和2016年分别组织了收缩城市研究专辑,通过介绍国际经验、分析国内现状、剖析典型案例等,率先在国内提出研究“收缩城市”的呼声,以期引起学界和实践界的共识。

    中国收缩城市研究网络:

    http://www.beijingcitylab.com/projects-1/15-shrinking-cities/

    我国收缩城市现状:

    180座收缩城市,4种主要类型

    清华大学建筑学院的龙瀛副研究员和其合作者吴康与王江浩博士,分别以我国第五、六次人口普查数据为基础,在乡镇和街道办事处尺度上对2000年和2010年中国的人口数据进行了空间可视化和分析,通过2000-2010年的人口对比发现,中国有三分之一的国土人口密度在下降,或者是说有一万多个乡镇和街道办事处的人口在流失。

    论文题目:

    中国收缩城市及其研究框架

    论文地址:

    http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/detail.aspx?filename=XDCS201509003&dbcode=CJFQ&dbname=CJFD2015&v=

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    在全国5万多个乡镇和街道办事处构成的地图上,分别用不同颜色来表征2010年对比2010年的人口密度变化。下图中的蓝色区域代表这十年中乡镇和街道办事处的人口出现了不同程度的减少,而红色区域则代表人口增长的地区。值得注意的是,只有在我们设市的城市才有街道办事处这样的单元。也就是说我们人口变少的地方不光是农村,比如说空心村,还有我们广大的空心街道办事处。

    [​IMG]
    将中国行政意义上的六百多个城市的市区范围再叠加到上面这张图上,不难发现中国的众多城市中,在2000年到2010年间有180个城市的人口在流失。其中包括1个省会城市乌鲁木齐,40个地级市和139个县级市。

    [​IMG]
    通过对180个收缩城市的总结归纳,中国收缩城市可以根据原因主要分为四个类型:

    • 资源型城市在工业化进程中出现的局部收缩

    • 传统工业城市工业衰落导致的局部收缩

    • 欠发达地区人口迁移引发的局部收缩

    • 行政区划调整导致的局部收缩
    收缩城市在

    街道空间上的表征

    收缩城市的核心特征是人口的减少,这一点在学界已得到较多认可。除人口外,城市收缩还常伴随着城市空间维度的变化。国外收缩城市普遍经历过中心城区衰败的阶段,例如美国底特律、德国莱比锡等,而中国收缩城市的空间变化呈现出不同的特点。

    龙瀛等(2015)提出中国收缩城市以“圈饼型”与“全域型”收缩为主,杨东峰等(2015)指出中国收缩城市存在“人口流失与空间扩张”的现象。

    在更微观的空间品质上,收缩城市有时会出现建筑空置、基础设施闲置、街道破败的景象,以美国锈带地区的底特律、匹兹堡等为典型代表。

    中国的收缩城市也有比较高的建筑空置率,并且建筑质量及环境在变差(以吉林延边龙井县为例,王昀,2017),但目前未出现大量基础设施闲置状况(刘春阳,2017),也未出现街道大规模衰败的情况。

    随着我国城市规划的重心从增量规划转向为存量规划,对收缩城市的研究显得愈加重要,街道作为城市的基本要素之一,其空间品质的变化应是衡量收缩城市变化的重要参考。

    李智和龙瀛(2018)以腾讯街景图片为载体,对齐齐哈尔中心城区在2013-2015年之间的街道空间品质变化进行了评价和对比分析,旨在从城市空间的维度探讨中国收缩城市的局部空间表征和变化模式。

    论文题目:

    基于动态街景图片识别的收缩城市街道空间品质变化分析——以齐齐哈尔为例

    论文地址:

    http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/det...yQ1VSTE9mWk9kcEZ5M2xXNzNOTHpmSWZiRzRIOW5NcVk=

    以齐齐哈尔市为例的研究

    本次研究的范围为黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市中心城区,主要位于建华区、铁锋区、龙沙区所辖区域,面积约88平方公里。

    根据国家统计局统计数据显示,齐齐哈尔市市辖区(含龙沙区等7个区)年末总人口从2006年起持续下降,已从2006年的144.22万人降至2015年的136.59万人,并预计今后几年内也将保持下降趋势。

    在经济上,近几年齐齐哈尔市的生产总值(GDP)依然持续增长,2014年GDP为1238.8亿元,较上年增长5.2%。

    数据获取:街景时光机

    近年来,腾讯地图等服务商推出了街景图片时光机的功能,用户可以看到同一街道在不同时间的街景图片,这为研究街道的变化提供了可能。本文利用腾讯地图的街景图片及其时光机功能,在研究范围内,首先获取全部街道中间隔100m的点及其经纬度坐标(并转换为火星坐标系),共计3267个坐标点。

    在腾讯地图中,根据坐标搜索附近50米范围内最近的街景地图,然后筛选出有时光机功能的街景地图点,共计1216个点。腾讯街景的时光机分别提供2013年7月与2015年11月的街景图片,每点有前后左右四个方向,于是每个点共有8张图片,共获得街景图片9728张。

    [​IMG]
    客观与主观评价标准

    首先,将街道空间按位置和建设情况分为三大类:街道、建筑、开敞空间。每大类中根据需要评价的要素又细分为中类和小类,如街道可分为车行道与人行道两中类,车行道又可分为铺装与车道两小类。

    对空间品质变化的评价分为两种:客观识别与主观评价。客观识别对每小类分别进行,判断其是否变化。主观评价对每中类分别进行,由作者根据主观感受,结合建筑学专业知识,从环境、质量等维度考察,排除季节因素,综合各小类变化,判断其变好、变差或无差别。

    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    研究结果

    • 结果统计上来看:
    1. 近一半的街景点客观上发生了变化,建筑的变化最多,街道其次,开敞空间再次;

    2. 底商招牌、人行道铺装、车行道铺装是变化最多的三个小类;

    3. 总体上,主观评价变好的点远多于变差的点,主观评价变差的点绝对数量很少;

    4. 街道主观评价变好的比例较高,而建筑和开敞空间主观评价变好的比例不高。
    • 空间分布上来看:
    1. 所有类别里空间品质变差的都只有极少数,并无连片的变差区域,也不存在某个观察点各项指标均变差;

    2. 车行道与人行道的变好点重叠率较高,分布特点是中心分布少,外围分布多;

    3. 建筑性质、开敞空间性质、开敞空间品质三类的变好点不多,但其分布同样是以外围为主;

    4. 建筑立面和底商两类,变化但品质无差别点较多,尤其是底商,且底商变化的分布呈现中心多外围少的特点。
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    争鸣:

    扩张的空间,流失的人口

    • 空间变好与经济式微
    首先,齐齐哈尔依然存在空间扩张的痕迹。在对比评价街景图片过程中发现,分布在外围的街道变好的位置,多是从没有铺装的土路升级成为铺装完好、人行道和车行道区分明确的道路。同时,建筑与开敞空间的外围变好,也多是由于新建的建筑、公园等提升了空间品质。由这些发现可知,齐齐哈尔市区的空间仍处在扩张之中,这也符合杨东峰等(2015)所提出的中国收缩城市“人口流失与空间扩张”的悖论。

    其次,齐齐哈尔的街道空间品质并没有出现衰败,反而有变好趋势。仔细来看,对品质变好的贡献大部分来自于街道的改善。这些街道的改善表明尽管人口在减少,但是城市市政没有停止投入,仍有资金进入以改善街道品质。在建筑上,虽然变化较多,但多数为简单的底商变化,少数立面整治和材料变化改善了空间品质,而极少有空间自然衰败的观察点。

    此外,频繁的底商变更意味着经济活力的不足。统计数据显示,两年内全城的底商换了两成有余,这些变更绝大多数是商家的变化,并不只是招牌的改善,并且这些变化的底商集中在较为中心的区域,这更能反映出中心已建成城区所发生的变化。底商的数量和变化趋势可以反映一个城市的经济活力,但并不是简单的线性相关关系,适量的商家变更代表着一定的经济活力,但过于频繁的变化则预示着经济活力的缺乏。

    • 人口-经济-空间下行滞后
    结合本文的研究发现以及龙瀛研究团队之前对中国收缩城市的研究,有望推断出齐齐哈尔在目前及可预见的未来内在人口、经济、空间上的变化。

    首先,齐齐哈尔的人口在下降,这是已经开始的趋势,并且在接下来的几年内会持续这种趋势;其次是经济,目前齐齐哈尔的经济仍在增长,但从底商的变化及人口的减少中我们已经感受到经济活力的式微,若无别的干预,预测在不久的将来经济指标也会呈下降或停滞趋势;最后是空间,目前的研究反映出空间品质仍在变好,并且极少有空间衰败的地区,但随着人口的减少与经济的下滑,对空间品质改善的资金投入会变少,对空间品质的维护投入也会变少,若无其他干预,最终将会出现空间的衰败。

    将此三个指标的变化趋势放在一起,我们便会发现收缩城市的“人口-经济-空间下行滞后”现象,即人口先减少,随之而来的是经济的下滑,最后出现空间品质的下降。

    [​IMG]
    量的收缩不代表质的收缩

    在识别180个收缩城市基础上,我们后续找到了其中64个城市的总体规划资料(目前正在搜集其他收缩城市的资料),发现这些城市的规划所预测的未来人口都处于上升状态,即体现了“膨胀的规划、收缩的城市”的现象,也说明了人口收缩现象并没有被中国城市规划的编制所重视。

    这主要源于中国的城市土地财政,即只有预测未来的人口增长,才能获得相应的城镇建设用地指标,进而支持后续的城市开发。

    城市化进程远没有想象中的那么顺利。

    现在重要的是探索如何突破“人口必须增长”这样的桎梏观念,特别是对那些缺乏内外增长动力的老工业城市,我们应该积极探寻收缩型城市的规划模式,以为其转型提供平稳环境。而国家层面上,如何在当前空间非均衡的城市化格局中,实现均衡化发展目标,也是一个重要的课题。

    参考文献

    • 李智,龙瀛.基于动态街景图片识别的收缩城市街道空间品质变化分析——以齐齐哈尔为例[J].城市建筑,2018(06):21-25

    • 龙瀛,吴康,王江浩.中国收缩城市及其研究框架[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):14-19. [4]

    • 杨东峰,龙瀛,杨文诗,等.人口流失与空间扩张:中国快速城市化进程中的城市收缩悖论[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):20-25.

    • 王昀.中朝边境的龙井县:彩灯照耀空房间[EB/OL].(2017-09-28) [2017-12-10].

    • 刘春阳,杨培峰.中外收缩城市动因机制及表现特征比较研究[J].现 代城市研究,2017(3):64-71
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
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  2. Get Ya Wig Split

    Get Ya Wig Split BANNED

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    要源于中国的城市土地财政,即预测未来的人口增长,才能获得相应的城镇建设用地指标,进而支持后续的城市开发城市化进程远没有想象中的顺利。现在重要的是探索如何“人口必须增长”这样的桎梏观念,特别是对那些缺外增长动力的老工业城市,我们应该积极收缩型城市的规划模式,以为其转型提供环境。而国家层面上,如何在当前空间非均衡的城市化格局中,实现均评价变衡化发展也是一个重要的课参考文近一的街景点客观上发生了变化,建筑的变化多,街道其次,开敞底商招牌、人行道铺装、车行道装变化最多的三个小类;总体上,主观评价变好点远多于变差的点,主观差点绝对数量少;道主观评价变好比例高,而建和敞空间主观评价变好比例不高间分上来看


    [​IMG]



    @Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA @Kiss_of_the_Dragon @beijingwalker @ZeEa5KPul
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019
  3. shambhu

    shambhu FULL MEMBER

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    china needs young population .
     
  4. Get Ya Wig Split

    Get Ya Wig Split BANNED

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    China's Employed Population Shrinks For The First Time Ever

    China's imminent, and historic conversion from a current account surplus to deficit nation is not the only "tectonic shift" taking place in the world's most populous nation. According to the latest census data from its National Bureau of Services, China's employed population has shrunk for the first time ever on record, and at the end of 2018, the number of people employed fell to 776 million, a drop of 540,000 from 2017.

    [​IMG]


    Meanwhile, in yet another sign that China’s population is aging rapidly, the broader working-age population, or people between the ages of 16 and 59, also shrank for the seventh consecutive year, down a total of 2.8% from 2011 to 2018 according to Caixing. Last year’s China's total working-age population stood at 897 million, down 5 million from 902 million in 2017, according to the NBS.

    Li Xiru, director of the Population and Employment Department at NBS, warned last month that the employed population would further drop in the coming years.

    While China is already beset with a myriad of economic and asset price bubbles, most notably a massive corporate debt load and a still gargantuan shadow banking system both of which it has to balance against an unprecedented housing bubble to avoid a collapse in the financial system sparking a "working class insurrection", the country’s shrinking work force creates even more headaches for officials as it pushes up labor costs, sparking inflationary pressures and placing more strains on an economy already struggling against external headwinds.

    As China Daily reported recently, the shortage of workforce means labor cost will continue to increase and industrial transfer and technology will substitute workers. And since university graduates - who expect far higher wages - account for nearly half of the labor force entering the market, the market is unable to provide traditional industries with the required number of workforce and the past high-input economic development mode is unsustainable.

    The futures is even bleaker: the working-age population is expected to see a sharp drop from 830 million in 2030 to 700 million in 2050 at a declining speed of 7.6 million every year, said Li Zhong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in July. Meanwhile, with decreasing supply of labor force, the salary of all industries grew at a rate of 11.3 percent in 2011, 10.5 percent in 2012, and 9.7 percent in 2013, said Zeng, adding that as a result many foreign enterprises left China and shifted to Southeast China due to rising labor cost.

    Adding to the warnings, back in 2015, the World bank cautioned that China’s working age population will fall more than 10% by 2040 in spite of a recent relaxation of its one child policy, heightening the risk of the world’s most populous country “getting old before getting rich”.

    [​IMG]

    A further decline of 10% would equate to a net loss of 90 million Chinese workers, a number greater than the population of Germany, and is consistent with demographic pressures across East Asia. The working populations of South Korea, Thailand and Japan are also expected to fall by 10 per cent or more over the next 25 years.

    “East Asia has undergone the most dramatic demographic transition we have ever seen,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank regional vice-president. “All developing countries in the region risk getting old before getting rich.”

    As of 2010, almost 40% of all people on the planet aged 65 or older — some 211 million individuals — lived in East Asia, and the World Bank estimates that a least a dozen East Asian countries will see the percentage of their populations aged 65 or higher double to 14 per cent in a quarter century or less. In France and the US, the same transformation took 115 and 69 years respectively

    “As [countries] get richer, fertility falls,” said Philip O’Keefe, lead author of the World Bank report. “Given China’s current fertility [rates], you may get a temporary uptick in people who wanted to have a second child having one, but we don’t see a big long-term impact there.”

    O’Keefe cited surveys showing that only a quarter of Chinese people eligible to have a second child would in fact do so, however according to recent data, despite China's relaxation of the infamous "one-child policy", local birth rates have remained stagnant and in fact, in 2018 China's birth rate dropped to a new record low.

    [​IMG]

    Commenting on China's demographic collapse, Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irving, said: "Decades of social and economic transformations have prepared an entirely new generation in China, for whom marriage and childbearing no longer have the importance they once did for their parents' generation."

    The World Bank urged East Asian governments to embrace immigration as one tactic to counter falling population pressures, noting that more than 20% of Australians and New Zealanders — and 40% of Singaporeans — were immigrants, although Europeans may offer some counterpoints against opening up one territory to a flood of foreigners...

    “Demography is a powerful force in development but it is not destiny,” Mr O’Keefe said. “Through their policy choices, governments can help societies adapt to rapid ageing.”

    Of course, besides demographics, China's transformation into the next Japan has major, and potentially dire, consequences for the local economy. As we reported back in October via Econimica, the 0-to-24 year old Chinese population swelled by over 300 million from 1950 to it's ultimate peak in 1991. Since that peak, the total population of young in China has fallen by 176 million, or a 30% decline in the number of children across China. Moving forward, the UN has expressed hopes the formal elimination of the one child policy would simply slow the rate of decline in the population...but by no means will China's fast declining childbearing population (those aged 15-44) nor disproportionately young male population potentially be offset by a slightly less negative birth rate.Contrast that with the quantity of debt being forcibly injected into a nation that faces a massive imminent population decline.

    [​IMG]


    To put that debt into perspective, the chart below shows that total debt and annual GDP each divided by the 0 to 24 year old Chinese population. As of 2018, every child and young adult in China under the age of 25 is presently responsible for over $100 thousand dollars in debt while the annual economic activity (GDP) created by all this debt continues to lag ever faster.

    And the coming decade only worsens as the young population continues its unabated fall and debt creation (absent concomitant economic growth) continues soaring... building more capacity all for a population that is set to collapse.

    [​IMG]

    China's predicament and reaction to it are not particularly unique...but given China's size, the ultimate global impact of China's slow motion train wreck will be unprecedented... particularly as their 15 to 64 year old population is now in indefinite decline. Chart below shows annual change in Chinese 15 to 64 year old population, in both millions (green columns) and percentage (blue line).

    [​IMG]


    Simply said, without a dramatic rebound in China's birth rate, massive overcapacity (thanks to over a decade of government mandated malinvestment) versus an ever swifter declining base of consumption does not add up to a burgeoning middle class or a happy ending.

    Of course, it's not just China: for context, here is a chart showing US federal debt per capita of the 0 to 24 year old US population...

    [​IMG]


    ... confirming that the next generation, whether in China or the US, is set for a painful collision course with debt bubble dynamics

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-02/chinas-employed-population-shrinks-first-time-ever

    GAME OVER!
     
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  5. Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA

    Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA SENIOR MEMBER

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    Even in 2100, China will have at least 1 billion people, or 600 million more than the United States.

    Game over for US empire!

    The biggest difference between Chinese and Americans: Chinese people work more diligently, and Chinese people like to save money. Americans follow "timely hedonism."

    You go to the street today to ask the Americans, many Americans can't even take out $500 in cash!

    My grandfather is a 75-year-old farmer (he worked very hard for a lifetime). He has a deposit of 50,000 yuan, the number is small, but he can cope with the emergency.

    I have a deposit of 500,000 RMB, my wife has a deposit of 200,000 RMB, and my home loan has been paid off in full last year with a value of appartment of 1,200,000 RMB.

    no debt to any one.

    Americans earn more than Chinese, which is certain, but Americans spend a lot, and many Americans don't even have $20,000 in deposits.

    My parents are farmers, but my college expenses are only 30,000 yuan per year, which is 5,000 dollars. Moreover, going to college in the United States is very expensive, and many parents can't afford it. American students must apply for a loan themselves.
     
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  6. Globenim

    Globenim FULL MEMBER

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    lol nice literally who opinions

    I'm sure China will suffer greatly from the growing mass of labourers with secondary and tertiary education that has been dragging down on the labour force numbers. Should be throwing more child slaves into the mines to pay off arms imports from the U.S. like democratic future superpower India to get a nod from American propaganda trolls, I guess.
     
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  7. Mista

    Mista FULL MEMBER

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    Large cities cannibalizing on smaller cities, it's happening many developed countries with stagnant demographics. With increasing globalization, it's happening even across borders.

    Competition in the 21st century is between cities, not countries, and cities compete to attract and retain talent. Institutions, job opportunities, quality of life, property prices, cost of living, congestion, etc; these are factors which influences a city's ability to attract talent.

    https://qz.com/80657/the-return-of-the-city-state/
     
  8. lcloo

    lcloo SENIOR MEMBER

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    Down sizing of population for China is good, even when the old age group is getting larger the advance of AI and robots in industries, healthcare and households will compensate for decreasing supply of young workers. The financial burden of caring for the old can be shared by the government and the family. Balancing the government policies between capitalism and socialism will help, in deed a must. Changing the retirement age will help too. And unlike the West, Chinese have a habit to keep large personal saving.

    There will be a transition time with some difficulties to adapt to the new normal, just like the PLA military downsizing. At the end of the transition period, efficient use of resources will make managing the smaller national population with larger percentage of old people cost effective without hampering economy.

    AI and robots will make all living transactions easier, there is less need for cashier, waiters, factory workers, bank tellers, bus drivers, taxi drivers, clerks etc. 50 years from now, with AI and robot take-over, down sizing of young population means redundant human workers will be less.

    China has too large population, USA is larger than China in geographical size yet with +300 million people they are doing just fine. China can move all those low profit high labour factories to other Asian and African countries, keeping only the high tech robotic factories.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
  9. RealNapster

    RealNapster SENIOR MEMBER

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    Maybe thats becauce China is builting/expanding new cities like a small town in 2000 is now a city holding millions. You can see this sudden change in China only.
     
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  10. Galactic Penguin SST

    Galactic Penguin SST FULL MEMBER

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    Rubbish by western low IQs again. They will be long vanished and forgotten when the Chinese Civilization continues to strive.

    Statistically, that is over 12'000 years of human recorded demographic history, China always lead, second to none.


    1. Population Through the Ages.
    12'000 years of Population estimates are from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE).



    https://themasites.pbl.nl/tridion/en/themasites/hyde/basicdrivingfactors/population/index-2.html


    :smokin:
     
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  11. Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA

    Adam WANG SHANGHAI MEGA SENIOR MEMBER

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    Shanghai 24 millions,Beijing 22 millions,Chengdu 16.4 millions,Chongqing 32 millions,Shenzhen 12.5 millions,Tianjin 15.6 millions, Guanghzou 14.5 millions,Suzhou 10.7millions,

    you may wonder where those new citizens come from?
     
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