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China’s population up less than half a million in 2021, births plunge again as crisis deepens

Mista

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Chinese share of global population today is lower than ever. China used to be 1/3 of the entire human population in the Ming Dynasty. Today? Not even 20%.

The sobering figure is that Chinese babies make up only ~7% share of total births today and it is still falling. It's going to fall to <5% in the coming decades and continue to fall further in the foreseeable future.

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Mista

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Surprise, China is not even among top 20 countries with decling population growth. In East Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan face worst population declining than Mainland China.


Due to varying demographic challenges around the world, many countries are facing shrinking populations. The United Nations publishes demographic projections regularly, allowing Business Insider to study the fertility, mortality, and international migration projections to determine the 20 countries projected to have the largest percentage population declines over the next three decades (2020-2050).

The UN is too optimistic for China's demographics IMO. Their assumption is that China's TFR will be like other developing countries without factoring that East Asian countries have significantly lower TFRs than other countries.

The UN assumes China's average TFR will be an average of 1.70~1.77 from 2020 to 2100. The reality is that China's TFR has fallen to 1.15 last year, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term as their economy continues developing, population urbanizing, and women getting more educated and marrying later.


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That Guy

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Our population base is too large, so the absolute value of our population fluctuation is also very large. It's not enough to absorb immigrants from the surrounding small countries, they don't have enough ability to help us. And the only neighbors with sufficient population, they are too dirty and smelly. We don't want them.
We can only rely on ourselves, we need more fertility stimulus policies.
Sounds racist, but okay.
 

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