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China’s Economy Overtaking the U.S. Will Be Harder Than It Looks

F-22Raptor

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China’s relatively rapid recovery from the pandemic has prompted some accelerated predictions of when its economy will surpass that of the U.S. in size. That may be asking the wrong question—if China takes the top spot at all, it may struggle to keep it for long.

Researchers at investment bank Nomura recently suggested that if the yuan were to strengthen further and to hold at around 6 to the dollar, the U.S. economy would be eclipsed by the Chinese economy by 2026.

The estimate is based on extrapolating International Monetary Fund estimates of 7.9% nominal GDP growth in 2025 further out into the future, and depends on the assumption that the U.S. economy will remain permanently below its pre-pandemic path. Neither outcome, nor continued currency appreciation, is certain. But even leaving the path of the U.S. aside, demographics and productivity trendswill make sustaining China’s pre-pandemic growth rates increasingly difficult.


Even if fertility trends improve overnight, China’s 20-65 year old cohort will have shrunk in size by one-tenth by the late 2030s. Sometime between 2035 and 2040, China’s old-age dependency ratio—the proportion of people older than 65 compared with the working-age population—will surpass the U.S. equivalent, according to United Nations projections.

The components of growth are labor, capital and the elusive total factor productivity. The domestic working-age population, as discussed, will be contracting. That means that unless China manages to attract many more immigrants or dramatically boost labor-force participation, it will ultimately need to maintain growth with sustained productivity improvements. And that is precisely the element that will be most difficult.

The marginal benefit of new investment in China has been shrinking as debt has boomed. And TFP growth overall has slowed considerably, to just 0.7% a year between 2009 and 2018, from 2.8% on average in the decade before the global financial crisis, according to a June 2020 World Bank paper on the country’s productivity potential.


Convergence isn’t an economic law. At the end of 2019, the GDP per capita levels of Brazil, Mexico and Turkey were very moderately below their average for the period since 1980. There are other measures of income, which adjust for different purchasing power in different countries. But when measuring pure international heft, the fact that haircuts are cheaper in Chengdu than Cleveland means very little.

China’s surpassing of the U.S. looks likely from extrapolating recent trend lines, but entails some big assumptions—especially on productivity and currencies. Keeping ahead without a growing population might prove even harder.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas...-u-s-will-be-harder-than-it-looks-11611571374
 

F-22Raptor

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As I’ve said for some time, it doesn’t matter if China passes US in a decade, we’ll just pass you again in the latter half of the century.

In reality, time is with US, not China.
 

bilibili

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As I’ve said for some time, it doesn’t matter if China passes US in a decade, we’ll just pass you again in the latter half of the century.

In reality, time is with US, not China.
If Trump or someone in his patriot party return presidency 2024, nothing we can predict now, haha
 

Nasr

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Billions of dollars worth of Iraqi Oil, plundered by your scum elite. A million Iraqis died because of your scum US Govt sanctions. Syrian Oil sold given freely by your scum US Govt to the illegal, illegitimate, murder, liar state of israel. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians dead, starving, living in sub-human conditions because of US Govt uncompromising support to the illegal, illegitimate, murder, liar state of israel. Hundreds of thousands of Libyans dead, starving, homeless and ravaged by wars imposed by US Govt. Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis murdered, starving, homeless and destroyed due to wars supported by US Govt. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans murdered, starving and destroyed due US Govt's illegal occupation and 20 year on Afghanistan.

See if anyone cares whether what WSJ has to say about China. The only thing real people want, is a humiliating demise of america. It is coming, and there is not a damn thing you can do to stop it.
 

ZeEa5KPul

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As I’ve said for some time, it doesn’t matter if China passes US in a decade, we’ll just pass you again in the latter half of the century.

In reality, time is with US, not China.
☝ That right there is a severe case of copium addiction. Copium... not even once.
China has the same patents per capita as Switzerland and Canada. US is below.

Productivity is on China's side.

And morons say China doesn't respect intellectual property.

@F-22Raptor, take a look at your pathetic trolling history, chump:
We've gone from "Why China Won’t Overtake the United States" to "China’s Economy Overtaking the U.S. Will Be Harder Than It Looks". Pretty soon we'll have "Why China won't have an economy 5x the size of America's. Dear God, Please!":omghaha:

It's both amazing and pathetic how bitterly Americans cling to their delusional beliefs. Guess Obama was right about one thing when he described his countrymen as "bitter clingers."
 
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retaxis

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As I’ve said for some time, it doesn’t matter if China passes US in a decade, we’ll just pass you again in the latter half of the century.

In reality, time is with US, not China.
Time is against the US. As US becomes black/hispanic majority your IQ and GDP will become those of Mexico/Brazil. Rich people will leave US for Australia and Cananda and America will become minority majority country in the next 20-30 years. China just has to wait and watch US go down in flames lol.
 

bshifter

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As I’ve said for some time, it doesn’t matter if China passes US in a decade, we’ll just pass you again in the latter half of the century.

In reality, time is with US, not China.
Herein lies the flaw of this logic. China will only get richer. Brace yourself for the reality impact in the latter half of the century.
 

FuturePAF

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Doubtful the United States will continue to exist as a nation.
Don’t count the US out. It is more robust then any other country, and based on demographics and its technological advantage it has a stable future. It is just going through a rough patch, but don’t under estimate her.

China may outpace the US nominally for a generation, but as demographics and debts catch up with China, similar to Japan at the end of the 80s, the US will gain back her lead.
 

tower9

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Don’t count the US out. It is more robust then any other country, and based on demographics and its technological advantage it has a stable future. It is just going through a rough patch, but don’t under estimate her.

China may outpace the US nominally for a generation, but as demographics and debts catch up with China, similar to Japan at the end of the 80s, the US will gain back her lead.
China isn't Japan. When China overtakes the US, it will pull away. But the US will still remain a superpower.
 

F-22Raptor

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☝ That right there is a severe case of copium addiction. Copium... not even once.

And morons say China doesn't respect intellectual property.

@F-22Raptor, take a look at your pathetic trolling history, chump:
We've gone from "Why China Won’t Overtake the United States" to "China’s Economy Overtaking the U.S. Will Be Harder Than It Looks". Pretty soon we'll have "Why China won't have an economy 5x the size of America's. Dear God, Please!":omghaha:

It's both amazing and pathetic how bitterly Americans cling to their delusional beliefs. Guess Obama was right about one thing when he described his countrymen as "bitter clingers."
The US has a far more vibrant future ahead of it than China. It has the money, military, science and technological prowess, institutions, and cultural power to dominate the future.

China’s future is literally death and old age. Enjoy Poobah
 

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