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China’s economy and military can overtake US, but it still won’t become global superpower

GumNaam

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I don't think America want to be a global military hegemony in the first place. As America develop further, it realized that it can't control global trade such as Panama channel, Malaca, Red sea and Med sea without military hegemony, later it realized it can't control the Middle East oil and combine oil trade with Dollor without military hegemony. American ideology and interests force it to be military hegemony though it's more and more unwelcome worldwide. Unfortunately America is forcing China to be on the same way. China has to find a new way which could be accepted by world people. Now China has only some initiatary ideas.
no. america still suffers from the "white man's burden" syndrome where they wrongly think they they somehow have the "inherent" duty to export their ideology to the rest of the world. the global destruction of world war 2 where the western hemisphere was the only place left unscath only made that misguided mindset stronger. well the world is smarter now, all the dirty little games america plays to plunge the world into another global CONVENTIONAL war where they will remain protected by the oceans is falling flat on their faces because nuclear powers like China & Russia are now asserting themselves thus rendering the american plans useless. heck, even the close european allies are starting to shy away from the american game plan.

the world is starting to tell america that there is no such thing as the "white man's burden" and no one is interested in there way of life and thinking so they should just, how should I put it, SHUT UP & SIT DOWN!
 

My-Analogous

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China has the money, the weapons and the might. But it can’t overthrow US from world hierarchy yet.

There is an ongoing discussion that China is emerging as a new superpower and replacing the US from the global power structure. China emerging strongly from the growing global economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic and Donald Trump’s ally-alienating policies within NATO for the last four years have pushed this narrative forward considerably. There is no doubt that China has already become the global powerhouse economically, and is expected to surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2028. China is still behind but on its way to surpassing the US in military power with increased spending on weapons technology and developing several secretive weapons.

There is no doubt over China acquiring economic and military strength superior to the US sooner than later, but the question is, can the Communist Party-led China be ever as formidable and complete a superpower as the US has been for the last eight decades? When the Soviet Union competed with the US to claim superpower status during the Cold War period, it somewhat matched America’s strength in leading alliances and military power. However, at the height of its power, the Soviet Union was never a match for US domination economically or culturally.


Like the Soviet Union in the past, China now faces several geopolitical and cultural challenges before it can reach global superpower status similar to the US. China can’t aspire to get the same respect and acceptance worldwide, even if its economic and military power overtakes the US. A democratic US will always have ideological, political, and cultural superiority compared to a Communist China.

One-party Communist country
Although China has developed a hybrid system to grow spectacularly on the economic front, it is still a one-party Communist country. Politically, it has become further closed and centralised than ever before. The Chinese Communist Party is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year. In 2011, when it was celebrating its 90th anniversary, I was fortunate to attend an invite-only meeting of the Chinese Political Science Association in Shanghai. Many top Chinese political scientists openly discussed the possibilities of China opening up to a multi-party electoral system. That sort of discussion is almost impossible to imagine in Xi Jinping-led China now


No doubt, China is a strong state with a powerful party bureaucracy, but its politics is potentially very fragile. Under a closed system, it is almost impossible to predict when that spark will arrive to ignite a political upheaval. This is a country where the Interpol chief or a globally famous billionaire can disappear without any official explanation. Hundreds of Chinese millionaires have been living abroad to protect their wealth from future uncertainties and to avail the opportunities of open societies.


China has become rich, it is spending heavily on its university education, but 600,000 Chinese students go abroad for their higher studies every year. China’s economy might be booming for decades, but 10 million Chinese have traveled to other countries to find jobs while 51 million people from all over the world have moved to the US for better work and improved living.

Tough neighbourhood
Despite its ongoing political troubles, there is no doubt that the American political system is resilient to any attack from destabilising forces. But that sort of trust in the system continues to elude China. Though China has been enjoying political stability for long, the Chinese people don’t have similar trust and confidence in their political system as the Americans have in theirs. This will not help China command the respect of other countries in its competition to become the global superpower.

Geopolitics also does not favour China as it has the US. Unlike the US, China is surrounded by several powerful and competing countries. Among them, at least two, Russia and India, see the dream of becoming superpowers. China has also fought wars against them and continues to have several border disputes. China is neither safe nor secure in its neighbourhood to freely engage in political and military projects in other parts of the world as the US does.


Besides China’s location in a tough neighbourhood, it also lacks trusted, powerful allies. On the one hand, the democratic US has established strong political and military cooperation with many regionally powerful countries like the UK, Germany, Japan, and Australia from the Cold War days. It continues to keep those allies, while getting new ones like India. On the other hand, China’s only significant ally in the world is Russia, but that alliance suffers from many contradictions and has not passed the test of time. It will be hard to imagine China gaining the upper hand militarily, economically, and politically in the future, vis-à-vis the US and its allies’ combined forces.

The US stands firm
The US has been and will continue to be the global cultural superpower, and there is minimal possibility of China posing any serious challenge to that status. Not only does its democracy and freedom provide ideological superiority to the US, its cultural influence through movies, media, music, and literature also extends across the world. The US is a country of immigrants, and it represents and enriches the cultures and ideas of the world. But China has remained a closed country for long. While English remains the world’s language, it is almost impossible to imagine Mandarin taking up that place.

China will always be struggling to catch up to the US and take the lead position in the global power race. Like the Soviet Union, its superpower status will be limited and confined to certain aspects of it. The US has everything to hold its own long in this competition if it doesn’t often engage in self-sabotaging acts like it has in the last four years.

Ashok Swain is a Professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Sweden. Views are personal.

China simply can't. Super Dooper power India will not allow them. They give this title to US only
 

khanmubashir

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China has the money, the weapons and the might. But it can’t overthrow US from world hierarchy yet.

There is an ongoing discussion that China is emerging as a new superpower and replacing the US from the global power structure. China emerging strongly from the growing global economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic and Donald Trump’s ally-alienating policies within NATO for the last four years have pushed this narrative forward considerably. There is no doubt that China has already become the global powerhouse economically, and is expected to surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2028. China is still behind but on its way to surpassing the US in military power with increased spending on weapons technology and developing several secretive weapons.

There is no doubt over China acquiring economic and military strength superior to the US sooner than later, but the question is, can the Communist Party-led China be ever as formidable and complete a superpower as the US has been for the last eight decades? When the Soviet Union competed with the US to claim superpower status during the Cold War period, it somewhat matched America’s strength in leading alliances and military power. However, at the height of its power, the Soviet Union was never a match for US domination economically or culturally.


Like the Soviet Union in the past, China now faces several geopolitical and cultural challenges before it can reach global superpower status similar to the US. China can’t aspire to get the same respect and acceptance worldwide, even if its economic and military power overtakes the US. A democratic US will always have ideological, political, and cultural superiority compared to a Communist China.

One-party Communist country
Although China has developed a hybrid system to grow spectacularly on the economic front, it is still a one-party Communist country. Politically, it has become further closed and centralised than ever before. The Chinese Communist Party is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year. In 2011, when it was celebrating its 90th anniversary, I was fortunate to attend an invite-only meeting of the Chinese Political Science Association in Shanghai. Many top Chinese political scientists openly discussed the possibilities of China opening up to a multi-party electoral system. That sort of discussion is almost impossible to imagine in Xi Jinping-led China now


No doubt, China is a strong state with a powerful party bureaucracy, but its politics is potentially very fragile. Under a closed system, it is almost impossible to predict when that spark will arrive to ignite a political upheaval. This is a country where the Interpol chief or a globally famous billionaire can disappear without any official explanation. Hundreds of Chinese millionaires have been living abroad to protect their wealth from future uncertainties and to avail the opportunities of open societies.


China has become rich, it is spending heavily on its university education, but 600,000 Chinese students go abroad for their higher studies every year. China’s economy might be booming for decades, but 10 million Chinese have traveled to other countries to find jobs while 51 million people from all over the world have moved to the US for better work and improved living.

Tough neighbourhood
Despite its ongoing political troubles, there is no doubt that the American political system is resilient to any attack from destabilising forces. But that sort of trust in the system continues to elude China. Though China has been enjoying political stability for long, the Chinese people don’t have similar trust and confidence in their political system as the Americans have in theirs. This will not help China command the respect of other countries in its competition to become the global superpower.

Geopolitics also does not favour China as it has the US. Unlike the US, China is surrounded by several powerful and competing countries. Among them, at least two, Russia and India, see the dream of becoming superpowers. China has also fought wars against them and continues to have several border disputes. China is neither safe nor secure in its neighbourhood to freely engage in political and military projects in other parts of the world as the US does.


Besides China’s location in a tough neighbourhood, it also lacks trusted, powerful allies. On the one hand, the democratic US has established strong political and military cooperation with many regionally powerful countries like the UK, Germany, Japan, and Australia from the Cold War days. It continues to keep those allies, while getting new ones like India. On the other hand, China’s only significant ally in the world is Russia, but that alliance suffers from many contradictions and has not passed the test of time. It will be hard to imagine China gaining the upper hand militarily, economically, and politically in the future, vis-à-vis the US and its allies’ combined forces.

The US stands firm
The US has been and will continue to be the global cultural superpower, and there is minimal possibility of China posing any serious challenge to that status. Not only does its democracy and freedom provide ideological superiority to the US, its cultural influence through movies, media, music, and literature also extends across the world. The US is a country of immigrants, and it represents and enriches the cultures and ideas of the world. But China has remained a closed country for long. While English remains the world’s language, it is almost impossible to imagine Mandarin taking up that place.

China will always be struggling to catch up to the US and take the lead position in the global power race. Like the Soviet Union, its superpower status will be limited and confined to certain aspects of it. The US has everything to hold its own long in this competition if it doesn’t often engage in self-sabotaging acts like it has in the last four years.

Ashok Swain is a Professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Sweden. Views are personal.

If Chinese over take USA in economics and military as the article also predicted then they would be number one world power

It's funny Indians bringing up movie stuff the supapawa of Bollywood bs ;)
 

Chhatrapati

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No point missed man, Ashok might be anti hinduvatdi, but doesn't mean he is anti India and pro China....you are the one who missed the point.
lol! Dude, I don't care if he is pro or anti-Hindutva but duffers here celebrating Swain's comments when he is critical of India and all of a sudden his Indianness becomes a factor. Also, he is not even India apart from his ethnicity. And I'm perfectly on point.
 

Han Patriot

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lol! Dude, I don't care if he is pro or anti-Hindutva but duffers here celebrating Swain's comments when he is critical of India and all of a sudden his Indianness becomes a factor. Also, he is not even India apart from his ethnicity. And I'm perfectly on point.
We applaud what us truth abd condemn what is wrong, its simple. His indianess also shows his bias towards China, its inbuilt in the Indian psyche, 1962 bruised their ego badly, ask any Chinese, they don't even know what is that war and how 'bad' India is until recently. We just don't have that inferior complex towards Indians, maybe an Infetior complex towards the West but never yindostan. Lol
 

Chhatrapati

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We applaud what us truth abd condemn what is wrong, its simple. His indianess also shows his bias towards China, its inbuilt in the Indian psyche, 1962 bruised their ego badly, ask any Chinese, they don't even know what is that war and how 'bad' India is until recently. We just don't have that inferior complex towards Indians, maybe an Infetior complex towards the West but never yindostan. Lol
Do you mean inferiority complex called Century of humiliation? We are not the ones aping westerners forgetting own culture. Anyway, I wasn't even talking about appraisal or condemnation of bot farm trolls rather hypocrisy of some who can't take criticism and using ethnicity as a way to condemn someone.
 

Chhatrapati

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Your country was made by the west, your official language became English and you blindly follow western governance, colonial mentality is forever embedded in Indian psyche.
Lol! All these are ironic when Chinese talks it. You're speaking English, and you're learning English in your country, you're dressed up like them all over, and you are aping the same western ideology called Communism. Where is Chinese culture? ................. Oh, you destroyed in the cultural revolution.
 

beijingwalker

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Lol! All these are ironic when Chinese talks it. You're speaking English, and you're learning English in your country
We learn English as a tool unlike you, having a foreign language as your OFFICIAL LANGUAGE.
The language is the No.1 carrier of one's culture, speaking of preserving own cultures...
Our constitution is written in our own language, how about your?
 

Han Patriot

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Do you mean inferiority complex called Century of humiliation? We are not the ones aping westerners forgetting own culture. Anyway, I wasn't even talking about appraisal or condemnation of bot farm trolls rather hypocrisy of some who can't take criticism and using ethnicity as a way to condemn someone.
A country using English as an official language and feels proud of his colonial past has no inferior complex vs the West? Lol. Want me to show u the Indian 2020 video with white servants? Or even the fair and lovely cream? Lol. You mean to tell me you wear dhotis to work? Dude, come on.

I am not denying, as with most modernised society, the Western influence is strong even for a traditionalist like Japan. That's the devil's bargain. Indians especially the newly emancipated females are starting to rebel, that explains the rape pandemic, the traditionalist poor Indian male feels threatened. Bhai, I feel you.
 

AViet

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China cannot match the US in this century.

Anybody who has studied world geopolitics and history can tell you that. Even Taiwan and South Korea are a much more vibrant and sustainable place than Mainland China.

Economy isn't everything. Sustainability is. America always finds ways to sustain itself. Communist China has a very myopic black and white worldview.
The black and white worldview is a typical Western trait. which have existed in all Western civilizations (perhaps including Indian civilization) since beginning of recorded history, while the Chinese (and East Asian in general) have seen the world in very different way, i.e. nothing absolutely good and nothing absolutely bad.

You can see it from the figure of taiji, which appears on Korean flag.

The USSR believed that everything communism was good and everything capitalism was bad, and now the West says openly that everything communism are bad (and I see that most Pakistani and Indian on this forum share this opinion).

In the meantime, Chinese and East Asian never say such stupid things and generally, people believe that every systems have good and bad aspects. It is inherently in our blood. There are very few extremists.

Now the West has gradually learnt it. And you are not the only one who suddenly claims this view belongs to the Western civilization. Again, a typical Western trait, i.e. claiming everything invented by Chinese as its own.
 
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Cliftonite

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The USSR believed that everything communism was good and everything capitalism was bad, and now the West says openly that everything communism are bad (and I see that most Pakistani and Indian on this forum share this opinion).
Communist societies are dystopian sh*tholes.

Don't make this into some Occidental v Orientalist thing. The KMT Taiwanese hold onto original Chinese culture quite well without all your CCP Big Brother totalitarianism. If anything, Chairman Mao and CCP did away with a lot of Chinese cultural values.
 

AViet

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Communist societies are dystopian sh*tholes.
Look at the most backward, poorest former communist countries like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan or Laos and compare them to democratic countries like Pakistan, India or Afghanistan.

Or just compare 02 countries with similar GDP per capita: communist Vietnam and democratic Phillipines.

Even North Korea, if considered a communist (in fact it is not), is still a paradise compared to Brazil, Columbia or Mexico.
 

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