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China’s 2020 GDP means it will overtake U.S. as world’s No. 1 economy in 2026, sooner than expected

beijingwalker

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I agree I guess , but look the U.S has many talented scientists from all races that work together unlike China where it's just kinda known at certain times they give up and copy. Copying isn't bad but when one does it too much it ruins the countries image.

U.S has an ecosystem that makes innovation/inventions in a higher amount , the Chinese makes small innovation but again the culture prohibits thinking outside of the box.

Chinese are sadly rote learners unlike the U.S where people take crazy risks

America also spends 700+ billion usd on their military , that ain't going down soon either.

CCP chose to be this way not the Chinese people , as I see China can be better than America but again America has more pros and a lot of people if given the choice will go to America than China.
It's all about money and where talents could have more money and opportunities, US didn't get to its current place overnight, once US economic domination is no more , soon will go with other things. China will achieve her goals also step by step.
In a nutshell, economy is the foundation for all other good things to be coming.
 

SpaceMan18

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It's all about money and where talents could have more money and opportunities, US didn't get to its current place overnight, once US economic domination is no more , soon will go with other things. China will achieve her goals also step by step.
In a nutshell, economy is the foundation for all other good things to be coming.

China has the economy now but still chose to not innovate at higher levels , it's almost like the CCP is forcing people to copy rather than express their own ideas.

CCP doesn't want people expressing feelings cause that leads to people doubting the government , which leads to you know etc.
 

letsrock

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Looking at the long term demographic US will become a Hispanic predominant country and then break up into many smaller states, US doesn't have cohesive blood and cultural bond that Chinese people hold for thousands of years.
Most hispanics are white and become all american within a generation or so. Look at Marco Rubio full republican but hispanic.
It's all about money and where talents could have more money and opportunities, US didn't get to its current place overnight, once US economic domination is no more , soon will go with other things. China will achieve her goals also step by step.
In a nutshell, economy is the foundation for all other good things to be coming.
If you think US is all about economic domination then you are wrong. There are many things us did really well. One is the integration among white populations. Most europeans were at each other throats till 1945 or even till 1989 but in usa all of them got along well pretty soon despite some initial problems with irish or italians. Thats a great achievement of america and its inherent fairness atleast among white americans. But ofcourse blacks were treated bad and they are still trying to rectify it.
 

TaiShang

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China has the economy now but still chose to not innovate at higher levels , it's almost like the CCP is forcing people to copy rather than express their own ideas.

CCP doesn't want people expressing feelings cause that leads to people doubting the government , which leads to you know etc.
Actually, China is among the top in many scientific metrics, including international patents, start-up with over 1 billion USD valuation, publications in international reviewed scientific journals, spending on R&D, new technologies such as AI, IOT, Fintech, quantum communication etc. Government leads and encourages. It actually punishes companies that invest in still profitable but outdated sectors. It provides very good scholarship to send students overseas. It encourages youth participation in science. China's space program is composed of very young people with big responsibilities.

China's social media is the world's most vibrant. We actually know, by simply following social media, even the smallest developments in the world - although this is not accessible to those without Chinese language ability. For example, on my Baidu news feed, I just read the plight of young girls (including some Twitter screenshot), who are forced to take pictures of themselves (nude) due to unpaid debt to the lender. The girl was talking about killing herself, but, the lender did not care.

I do not see any specific glaring creativity in Indian style democracy. What it produces is incompetence, corruption, and underdevelopment.

This is the case in over 100 so-called democracies. At best, they are forced clients of technology produced in very few Western countries.
 

Surya 1

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China’s 2020 GDP means it will overtake U.S. as world’s No. 1 economy in 2026, sooner than expected

January 18, 2021 6:00 PM GMT+8

China's standout economic growth in 2020's pandemic-battered global economy has led analysts to update their forecasts for when China will overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy to as early as 2026.

On Monday, China reported a year-on-year increase of 6.5% for the fourth quarter of 2020 and a 2.3% increase for all of 2020, surpassing analysts' forecasts and making China the the only major economy to log positive growth in 2020.

Nomura Holdings had estimated China's economy would surpass the U.S.'s in 2030, but China's economic performance in 2020 caused the firm to shorten that timeline to 2028, extrapolating from International Monetary Fund projections, or to as early as 2026 if renminbi appreciation continues.

The pandemic "dealt a much larger blow to the U.S. economy than to China's economy," the Nomura report said. "Time will tell, but in our view there is a high likelihood that 2026 will be the milestone at which China re-emerges as the world's largest economy."

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Nomura's estimate, like other analysts' projections, measures when China will overtake the U.S. in market exchange rates. Economists use gross domestic product to measure the size of a country's economy, and there are two ways to compare GDP figures: by using purchasing power parity (PPP), which compares the prices of goods in each country (the Big Mac Index, for example) or by using market exchange rates to convert a country's nominal GDP in its own currency to a common one, in most cases the U.S. dollar.

In PPP terms, China's GDP overtook the U.S.'s in 2017, according to Nomura, but using market exchange rates rather than PPP to compare economies is "a logical choice when financial flows are involved."

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a U.K.-based think tank, similarly revised its estimate for when the Chinese economy would surpass the U.S. A late December report from CEBR said China GDP would eclipse U.S. GDP for the first time in 2028—five years earlier than the firm's previous estimate—and said the pandemic prompted the revision.

"For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China," the CEBR report said. "The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favor."


While China's domestic economy rebounds, other major economies, like the U.S., are struggling to control the spread of the coronavirus and return to pre-pandemic economic growth.

China's GDP will grow 5.7% per year until 2025, followed by 4.5% annually until 2030, CEBR estimates, while the U.S. economy will grow 1.9% per year from 2022 to 2024 and then 1.6% per year "for the rest of the forecast horizon."

Oxford Economics changed its prediction for when China's economy will overtake the U.S.'s from 2030 to 2029 because of the pandemic. "China has coped with the pandemic better than the U.S.," said Louis Kujis, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance, has a slightly longer timetable for the cross-over, but he also shortened his estimate because of the pandemic. Pang says it will be "ten years or longer" before China overtakes the U.S. as the world's largest economy. Before the pandemic, Pang says, he had estimated it would take around 15 years.

"While the global backdrop continues to be uncertain and other hard-hit economies are still a long way off from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels," said Pang, "we think China will act as the primary engine and vital stabilizer of the global economy."

Yifan Zhang, an associate professor of economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, didn't have an exact guess for the year China's economy will become the world's biggest. "Whether it's 2026 or 2028 or 2030 matters less," Zhang said. "On the day when China becomes the largest economy again, it signals there's a shift of power between the East and West."

That is going to happen sooner or later. Few years here or there doesn't matter.
 

TaiShang

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That is going to happen sooner or later. Few years here or there doesn't matter.
I believe quality is important, not quantity. Hence China's focus on critical technologies through active government guidance (much as in developed East Asia), which is the main reason for US-China friction.

West loves us so much that they do not want us to toil our delicate heads, but become passive consumers of their own crativity. :D
 

SpaceMan18

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Actually, China is among the top in many scientific metrics, including international patents, start-up with over 1 billion USD valuation, publications in international reviewed scientific journals, spending on R&D, new technologies such as AI, IOT, Fintech, quantum communication etc. Government leads and encourages. It actually punishes companies that invest in still profitable but outdated sectors. It provides very good scholarship to send students overseas. It encourages youth participation in science. China's space program is composed of very young people with big responsibilities.

China's social media is the world's most vibrant. We actually know, by simply following social media, even the smallest developments in the world - although this is not accessible to those without Chinese language ability. For example, on my Baidu news feed, I just read the plight of young girls (including some Twitter screenshot), who are forced to take pictures of themselves (nude) due to unpaid debt to the lender. The girl was talking about killing herself, but, the lender did not care.

I do not see any specific glaring creativity in Indian style democracy. What it produces is incompetence, corruption, and underdevelopment.

This is the case in over 100 so-called democracies. At best, they are forced clients of technology produced in very few Western countries.

Ah I see

India is a failure not cause of democracy but cause of diversity , China does innovate but again even if the CCP encourages young people into science the culture or education systems kills their creativity.

Chinese parents still force their kids to be engineers or doctors which has to change in order for China to grow.

China's space program is great but again some of their rockets resemble Russian rockets. China needs to innovate in either rocket engine tech or cost saving.

China's social media is aight , CCP bans any American social media though cause of competition.


When the Chinese are corrupt too much gets done when an Indian or Bangladeshi is corrupt too little or nothing gets done.

A lot of original stuff comes out in the U.S , China needs to be original again
 

Dungeness

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Ah I see

India is a failure not cause of democracy but cause of diversity , China does innovate but again even if the CCP encourages young people into science the culture or education systems kills their creativity.

Chinese parents still force their kids to be engineers or doctors which has to change in order for China to grow.

China's space program is great but again some of their rockets resemble Russian rockets. China needs to innovate in either rocket engine tech or cost saving.

China's social media is aight , CCP bans any American social media though cause of competition.


When the Chinese are corrupt too much gets done when an Indian or Bangladeshi is corrupt too little or nothing gets done.

A lot of original stuff comes out in the U.S , China needs to be original again
Are you sure you are talking about Chinese parents? Or you are imaging that's what Chinese parents would do because Indian parents are doing so?

China did not band US social media, they simply asked them to keep servers in China and they declined. Do some homework before judging others.
 

Daniel808

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Ah I see

India is a failure not cause of democracy but cause of diversity , China does innovate but again even if the CCP encourages young people into science the culture or education systems kills their creativity.

Chinese parents still force their kids to be engineers or doctors which has to change in order for China to grow.

China's space program is great but again some of their rockets resemble Russian rockets. China needs to innovate in either rocket engine tech or cost saving.

China's social media is aight , CCP bans any American social media though cause of competition.


When the Chinese are corrupt too much gets done when an Indian or Bangladeshi is corrupt too little or nothing gets done.

A lot of original stuff comes out in the U.S , China needs to be original again
China is leading in 5G patent Technology, they also TOP 1 country in patents applied.

Not only that, their Science R&D spending are on the way to outpace US.

You need to learn more, instead using biased point of view from western propaganda

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TaiShang

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Ah I see

India is a failure not cause of democracy but cause of diversity , China does innovate but again even if the CCP encourages young people into science the culture or education systems kills their creativity.

Chinese parents still force their kids to be engineers or doctors which has to change in order for China to grow.

China's space program is great but again some of their rockets resemble Russian rockets. China needs to innovate in either rocket engine tech or cost saving.

China's social media is aight , CCP bans any American social media though cause of competition.


When the Chinese are corrupt too much gets done when an Indian or Bangladeshi is corrupt too little or nothing gets done.

A lot of original stuff comes out in the U.S , China needs to be original again
India is not diverse. It is chaotic and cast-based.

China banned US social media because they rejected to locate servers in China. Tik Tok, US servers are in the US, as per US national security regulations.

It is good to have complete control over a very strategic billion dollar business, besides. This is like Japan protecting their rice or auto industry.

Corruption and sustainable development are mutually exclusive. If you have underdevelopment, you are chronically corrupt.
India may be not a perfect country. But they surely have way more ethics and humanity than Chinese. The world can attest to that.

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Hopefully, Kashmir can be solved by a J & K solution with each region going to their respective countries. The brutal, genocidal, fascist Chinese should have no say in our bi-lateral matter.
Indian pride.
 

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