• Thursday, June 4, 2020

China vis a vis Pakistan - emerging economic and strategic factors and their implications.

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by Ace of Spades, Apr 5, 2020.

  1. Ace of Spades

    Ace of Spades FULL MEMBER

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    Strategic realignments are inevitable. Through out history one thing that's consistent is that nothing is consistent. New alliances were made, new ideologies were formed, new foes created and posturing was done. I am creating this thread to discuss potential outcomes of Pakistan's relation to china with emerging economic scenario and what are the implications for Pakistan.

    Historically Pakistan's relationship with china was strengthened truly after 1962, after china-indian war and later were forged around two factors, India and Diplomatic gateway of Pakistan to the west since Pakistan was a close ally of US during that era. However, over the years these factors changed and are changing, as soon as china moved towards industrialization their stance towards Kashmir, which used to be more pro Pakistan went on to be a "neutral policy" where statements like all parties should "exercise restrain" and "solve bilateral issues peacefully".

    Another factor, which in the beginning, was a pivotal point for deeper Pakistan vis a vis China corporation was china's use of Pakistan's influence and alliance with US. And that factor is also no longer there. However, over the years another factor that came in to existence is china's standing against US as a competitor for global economic might. That being a strong reality in my opinion west will rather formulate a new global economic plan with China, like PPP and PMLN did in Pakistan, you don't come to sindh and we won't come to Punjab. China will continue to diversify it's markets, hence, one belt one road initiative. But one can argue that will stay euro-centric initiative unless western alliances with GCC and turkey is undermined and i don't see that happening soon. Another likely scenario is china's tilt towards indian market further to sustain it's growth and economy. The battle to woe Indian market has already started as india's middle class expands. US currently is already trying to capture Indian market as much as it can, however, history tells that India never did put all of it's eggs in one basket and we gotta give this credit to them. In a likely scenario where India - China corporation on economic front increase, this will severely undermine Pakistan's strategic positioning with China; cutting down military ties. Unless, Pakistan intertwine it's economy with china and becomes production hub for Chinese goods and raise the stakes. Or diversify it's alliances and make new economic/ military blocs.

    World economy after covid-19 will drive big economies such as China, US, EU and even India towards closer corporation, to get their economies back on tract. And IMO we need to closely monitor this situation and prepare ourselves for any likely scenario. I am creating this thread to further expand on such scenarios and what can we do to effectively counter and secure Pakistan's interests.

    @Mangus Ortus Novem @SIPRA @PakSword @masterchief_mirza @StormBreaker @Blacklight
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2020
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  2. PakSword

    PakSword MODERATOR

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    Was watching this while reading your thread..

     
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  3. Mangus Ortus Novem

    Mangus Ortus Novem SENIOR MEMBER

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    @Ace of Spades


    YoungPakBrother mine,

    A solid opening... no doubt about it.

    Before we can define our relationships with others... we first need to define Ourselves.... because out of that comes the Fundamental Clarity to engage with the world... be it in individual life or in a nation's.

    One thing we need to understand that the Chinese don't think in terms of projects
    ... the Chinese always have an EndGame in mind....and all projects/investments are just BuildingBlocks towards that EndGoal.

    It is like the Game of Go ... or very typical Chinese ProblemSovlingTechnique of the ChineseBox... a small box in a big box, the big box in the bigger one...so on till the last box.

    This is because the WholismAppreciation in the ChineseCulutre and ConfucianStatecraft.... meaning nothing is stand-alone but things are interconnected...

    Now when we look at CPEC... what is it really?

    Just a node in BRI? Or something stand alone.... is it related to the Chinese 2050Plan or not?

    In Statecraft we are rather lazy to put it politely
    ....

    How many FO babuz speak fluent Mandrin?


    Do the staff in PakEmbassy in China speak fluent Chinese?

    How many professional from OurPakArmedForces speak the Chinese?

    Or for that matter our elite businessmen?

    Before we are truly able to disect the ChineseIntentions we need to enter the ChineseMind and decode the ChienseThinking first!

    TheCombinedWest has reached a level of HumanCondition that it is in Maintainence stage of development..and it is in its Self Interest to keep the world around it as it is so that there are no jolts to the Gains it has made in its Development.... be it miltary power or GlobalFinancialArchitecture ... the West is all for StatusQuo..and why not? Who would voluntarily give up such luxurious position...

    The Chinese complusion is 100yrs Goals... to wipe away Century of Tears/Humiliation as the Chinese call those times when the SummerHouse was bombed and looted by those whom the Chinese considered barbarians....

    China bid its time and gained its strength!

    And unlike us and most developing countries... the PRC had/has a very Clinical/HyperRational Matrix to measure its Comprehensive National Strength in which PLA Capabilities are but just one vector of the Matrix.

    It is instructive to understand/read how the border between China and Russia got 'settled'.... who won?

    In another thread by Our @StormBreaker I did bring to your good attention the Value of South and East China Seas...

    Now let us visit Our ForeignPolicy of the past 4 decades to have a baseline trend of What We Are?

    GCC is such a massive market for Pakistani products and services and we have millions of Paks working there as well... we HAD strategic relationships with them... Did we leverage that DiploCapital ...into EconomicGains?

    Can you Quantify the net gains in $Bln terms had we successfully integerated with GCC Market and had become an integeral part of it.... and not to forget GeoPolitical Leverage such an entaglement brings...

    Why couldn't we do this simple task?

    The Chinese SOEz are required to make Profit unlike Our SOEz .... so wherever they go they will make profit...for them it is all business... and nothing wrong with....

    Perhaps, you are positiioning a question:
    Can we Manage China?

    The way we are today the answer is Ugly and it is NO!

    Do we have to learn to manage China? Yes.

    Just a little perspective...I did mention it in another thread.... a couple of years ago data showed that the ChineseTourist oversease spending was a wopping $220Bln almost equal to the loss to PakEconomy in the War of Terror imposed upon us plus 80k PakLives lost..

    Now a massive Chinese middle class that is almost equal to the entire White population on the Planet...the ChineseMarket is one market we cann't afford to overlook.

    But do we understand the ChineseMarket?

    Do we have Instituitionalised Reasch done on this?

    Do our infamouse ChamersOfCommerce do systematic research on this?

    Now coming to your question of China cooling down its relationship with Pakistan because in your estimation the need has changed...then why would China build its biggest/most expensive embassy in Islamabad? It is almost equal to the American one...

    What is CPEC?


    I believe we need to welcome investments from everyone...have a very well defined EconomicRoadmap spread over 30yrs...we can copy/paste/modify the ChinaModel and leverage their expertise ...which they will be more than happy to provide.

    China is Pakistan's Life Insurance as Pakistan is China's..... something to meditate upon as to why...

    My sense is that the SinoPakRelationship is going to become more robust and multidimmensional and is almost out of SecurityDimmension.... CPEC Command tells us something...

    Besides in The Game of Chicken China is now the ThirdActor
    ....and where is the homebase for the ThirdActor?

    We need to focus on EastAfrica, AfroPakOcean is going to become a highly contested aqua-space sooner than later hence PNS is shopping, shopping....

    We need to have GCC-Pak Strategic Economic Forum and develop indepth mutally benefitial yet interdependt policies...

    IT Cities, GarmentCities and SEZz are the BuildingBlock and interedependence between China and Pakistan.

    Regarding, possible Chinese tilt towards India well that totally depennds on IndianPolicy...which is rather hostile to China for a decades almost... so either they join BRI or try to create an opponent to it with Japan and US.

    In case of competition the Value of Pakistan increases
    .. all we need is that Kabulistan turns back to Afghanistan and the process of Integeration into CPEC starts.

    Please, do read about CentralAisanEconomicCorridor and why it is essential that it gets integerated to CPEC.

    Our Destiny is also in OurHands ...it is upto us...once again to spoil the Gift!

    The Middle Kingdom has always seen itself as the Centre of Heavens... in Asia there can be only one... so India is almost out... it is now between the US and China.

    If we work on daft Diplo we can also create an EuroPak Economic Corridor and AmericanPak Economic Corridor.

    But for all that we need a professional class which the Babucracy hates...

    In a nutshell for the short to medium tern China is not going to dump us for India or anyone else...though the Chinese desire of investing a $400Bln in Persia would bring its own headaches for us for obvious reasons... once again it boils down to OurAbility to Manage the World which have not created ourselves!

    Mangus
     
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  4. Ace of Spades

    Ace of Spades FULL MEMBER

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    On point analysis, china indeed have end game in mind and we are either gonna play along, gain the benefits along the way and become integral part of it or china will continue and achieve it without us regardless and if at any point we becomes too big of the burden to carry, they won't think twice to get rid of the baggage. Unless we change our ways and start working on some-sort of economic framework; as long as we still have the leverage.

    Even if i set aside India for a second and china gets the alternative routes via Iran for the expansion of her economic might! As you rightly mentioned so, or any other alternatives; i am afraid at that point Pakistan has already lost the train.

    In a likely scenario where West comes to the reality and come to some-sort of arrangement with China to harvest the economic gains together; where would it leave us? But on the other hand there can't be two swords in one sheath. But they can come to some sort of temporary agreement for few decades. And imo that's all what India needs, 30-40 years, to accelerate her economy to the point that it will be one of the major players. Then would be alignment part; where new alliances will be forged. Afro-china trade, China-GCC trade all can be done by other routes, of course i am not negating Pakistan factor all together, it will stay relevant but may be not relevant enough if we don't materialize our position today. World is moving fast ahead and we are stuck at decades old alliances and relationships, GCC is a fresh example. How they changed their posturing towards Pakistan vis a vis India is incredible. And the "factor" that keeps Pakistan relevant to GCC is Iran, the day that factor becomes irrelevant and they come to some sort of arrangement, Pakistan's relationship with GCC would be story in history books.

    Every country just look out for their interests, China is may be Pakistan's life insurance may be vice and versa as well. But i think that's for now, may be for a decade more. After that i find it very hard to digest that Pakistan, if it continues to be what it's being, "a baggage" will stay relevant enough. And if you start involving India's economic ambitions, which actually can't be achieved with out China's corporation; the equation with Pakistan becomes imbalanced, unsolvable.

    The upcoming era is of economics, not of ideologies, land. But pure economics and resources. And for that we need to play our cards right! Best option that i see for Pakistan is to come with some-sort of federation agreement with Afghanistan as soon as they can, the geographical foot print will become too big to ignore, with strategic boundaries and mineral resources. And of-course make use of economic part of CPEC in favor of Pakistan's industrialization efforts; at-least till before it's too late.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
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  5. nahtanbob

    nahtanbob SENIOR MEMBER

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    On an overpopulated planet big powers have little margin for error for prolonged blood feuds like India/Pakistan. things can go wrong - 2008 economic meltdown, Covid virus in 2020. Who knows what is next ?

    you cannot fight geography. India, Afghanistan and Iran are your closest neighbors. I know China is also your neighbor. Most of Chinese population lives on the eastern seaboard
     
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  6. Ace of Spades

    Ace of Spades FULL MEMBER

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    The tussle will continue in the region unless there is one regional power, in case of Pakistan- India. That's how it works in all regions of the world. US dominate north America, Brazil dominates south, Germany dominates EU, though in case of EU the economic union dampens the effects of regional superiority, Saudi Arabia in case of middle east. But south asia is contested and will stay like that unless one compromise on it's strategic positioning.

    China is a neighbor and already dominates east; however, due to economic sustainability factor it's role in south Asia will stay relevant. And will stay a major player in shaping the future policies of the respective countries.
     
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  7. Invicta

    Invicta FULL MEMBER

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    Excellent post, it truly is a phenomenal scenario, a game of thrones type cut throat geo politics in the sub-continent. With big stakes for the rest of Asia might I add and GCC. If India does succeed then China will be challenged more in the Philippines/Vietnam/Indonesia region. Also Iran will be a tool for SA and other GCC. It is in a lot of countries interest to get Paksitan to a decent position, the GCC need to figure out where they stand.
     
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  8. nahtanbob

    nahtanbob SENIOR MEMBER

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    You have a simplistic view of geopolitics. What does Brazil's domination of Latin America mean ? Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina and Mexico march to their own beat. Ditto with Saudi Arabia. Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey act on their own.

    Nobody really knows what China's dominance means. At a certain level China really does not care about other countries. USA offered free markets, democracy etc. The Old USSR offered communism and state run economic system. What is even China offering ? Even Chinese have not figured out. For starters they have not renamed the Chinese Communist Party. There is nothing communist about it.
     
  9. IAU

    IAU ELITE MEMBER

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    CPEC
     
  10. Thamizh Puli

    Thamizh Puli BANNED

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    For China, Pakistan and India represent sizable markets; India bigger but Pakistan not insignificant
    For China, Pakistan marker is easier to acquire
    For China, Pakistan also helps with the OBOR vision/dream
    IOW, a cheap ally and market

    For Pakistan, China provides much needed money in dire straits
    For Pakistan, China provides protection in the UNSC
    For Pakistan, China represents excessive dependency and potential loss of sovereignty
    IOW next step in a horrible addiction to debt

    For India, China represents competition & risk
    For India, China represents a hope as well - if they can do it, India can kind
    For India, China also is evidence of how not to do certain things
    IOW a selective role model
     
  11. Adonis

    Adonis FULL MEMBER

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    CPEC is China's gain....not Pakistan's.
     
  12. IAU

    IAU ELITE MEMBER

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    And its Pakistan favor also development industrial development infrastructure development also
     
  13. nahtanbob

    nahtanbob SENIOR MEMBER

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    CPEC is Pakistan specific. CPEC has not delivered anything yet
     
  14. IAU

    IAU ELITE MEMBER

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    Its a big project, wait for few more year to complete, then Pakistan economy will be on the boom, and what USA delivered to Pakistan, you always used us and backstabb us in Critical times for Pakistan
     
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  15. Adonis

    Adonis FULL MEMBER

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    In bigger picture....it's like using your resources to give you part of it and keeping more from it. I don't want to open any can of worms, but CPEC is comparable to East India Company. This is even getting evident from fate of similar investments by China in other countries....No one is developing in that sense.