What's new

China: The economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter

dani191

SENIOR MEMBER
Jul 10, 2017
3,422
-9
1,173
Country
Israel
Location
Israel
China: The economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter - less than forecast
Analysts had expected 19% growth, after in the first quarter of 2020 the Chinese economy contracted by 6.8% following the outbreak of the corona plague; Retail sales jumped 34.2% in March, above expectations - but industrial product disappointed with a 14.1% increase
Foreign news
08:07, 16.04.21
Tags:
growth
Corona
China
China's economy grew by 18.3% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, according to data released today by the country's Ministry of Statistics. Analysts' expectations were for 19% growth.

Read more in Calcalist:
Ahead of the climate conference: a dead end in talks between the US and China, India and Brazil
Western retailers boycott Chinese cotton and snatch boomerang
Alibaba fined China $ 2.8 billion


The growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 is the highest since China began publishing the figure, in 1992. However it comes after in the first quarter of 2020 the Chinese economy contracted by 6.8% due to the outbreak of the corona plague. In the second quarter of last year, the second largest economy in the world returned to positive growth.
The growth rate in January-March 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2019 stands at 10.3%.
In a quarterly comparison, the growth rate in the first quarter was 0.6%, compared to 3.2% in the fourth quarter - below analysts' expectations of a 1.5% increase.

1618571781453.png


Additional content

Watching a movie in a hall in Beijing on Thursday
Beijing Cinema (Photo: AP)
1618571792070.png

According to data released today, retail sales jumped 34.2% in March, above analysts' expectations of a 28% increase and above the January-February figure of 33.8%.
Industrial GDP climbed 14.1% in the past month - below analysts' forecasts for a 17.2% jump, compared to 35.1% in January-February.
The unemployment rate in urban areas fell slightly to 5.3% in March, but at the age of 16-24 it remained high - 13.6%.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Statistics, "The international arena is suffering from uncertainty and instability. The foundations for local recovery have not yet been formulated, and long-term structural problems remain."
According to Reuters, analysts' expectations for growth in 2021 as a whole stand at 8.6%, after a growth of 2.3% in the past year - the lowest rate in 44 years.
 

denel

PROFESSIONAL
Jul 12, 2013
6,082
-1
10,218
Country
South Africa
Location
South Africa
This is a lie. The Chinese economy contracted by -674%, people can wish.
Well done China.
absolutely. They are drowning in debt; that is why CPEC was initiated to keep this money flowing.
 

denel

PROFESSIONAL
Jul 12, 2013
6,082
-1
10,218
Country
South Africa
Location
South Africa
Bro I was messing about. I think it's impressive they do well even with the current circumstances.
Yes absolutely, the fact they can keep pushing remains valid. They had reached a tipping point with internal growth; hence look outwards and encourage lending.

Very good reading overall:


 

waz

SENIOR MODERATOR
Sep 15, 2006
17,339
68
45,022
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom
Yes absolutely, the fact they can keep pushing remains valid. They had reached a tipping point with internal growth; hence look outwards and encourage lending.

Very good reading overall:


I'll take a read, thanks.
 

aziqbal

BANNED
Aug 26, 2010
3,048
9
5,154
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Yes absolutely, the fact they can keep pushing remains valid. They had reached a tipping point with internal growth; hence look outwards and encourage lending.

Very good reading overall:


very good point

most Chinese fake advertisements like these are just to please the ignorant

look into the detail and you will see the level of corruption its very deep rooted

if anyone tries to question the CCP will arrest them and jail them its happened to many officials
 

CAPRICORN-88

SENIOR MEMBER
Aug 19, 2015
2,600
-4
5,187
Country
Singapore
Location
Malaysia
Now many green-eyed monsters surface in disbelief.

:coffee: :omghaha: :omghaha:


As for ASEAN we are all very happy because China is the growth engine we can relied on for our economy to grow and recover and not USA.
 

hualushui

FULL MEMBER
Jul 3, 2019
1,514
-2
2,682
Country
China
Location
China
very good point

most Chinese fake advertisements like these are just to please the ignorant

look into the detail and you will see the level of corruption its very deep rooted

if anyone tries to question the CCP will arrest them and jail them its happened to many officials
Tell your American dad, China’s economic growth data is fake, and China is about to collapse. :omghaha: :omghaha: :omghaha:
 

fallstuff

ELITE MEMBER
Nov 20, 2009
8,317
0
5,917
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United States
Yes absolutely, the fact they can keep pushing remains valid. They had reached a tipping point with internal growth; hence look outwards and encourage lending.

Very good reading overall:


That is the key point.

There are still hundreds of partially occupied city out there. construction has been the driving engine of Chinese economy.

That's why I think all Chinese foreign lending requires all the employees working in the over inflated projects must be Chinese.

There is a reason why Government in Bangladesh barely used any money of the $34 billion of credit. China funded Deep sea port project was cancelled then given to the Japanese company. Multi-billion $ Dhaka Airport extension is being done by Japanese and Korean companies.
 

StraightEdge

FULL MEMBER
Jan 21, 2021
217
-2
167
Country
India
Location
India
It's hilarious when people say China has reached a tipping point of internal growth - did anyone check the household savings rate and compared it to other developed economies? They have one of the highest domestic saving rate and along with the massive 1.4 billion population, it makes them the most lucrative markets for consumption driven economy. The west relies on consumption, whereas the Chinese (and to certain extent Indians) first thinks about saving then consumption. When there is a gradual shift towards consumption, there will be huge potential for internal growth.

Quoted from a paper by IMF -

Household savings in China have been trending up since the early 1990s and peaked at 25 percent in 2010 and moderated slightly in recent years. Globally, household savings have been falling (from 14 percent of GDP in 1980 to about 7 percent today). The diverging trend has led to an increasing gap between China and the rest of the world. At 23 percent of GDP, today China’s household savings are 15 percentage points higher than the global average and constitute the main drivers of higher national savings in China. As discussed later, this gap reflects a confluence of factors, ranging from demographic structure, and developmental stage, to rising income inequality and housing affordability.
Also look at their debt per capita, their debt is well controlled and will have no problems to fund more massive infrastructure projects in future - I am talking about projects in scale of hundreds of billions or more.

Another important stats that people ignore is about debt compared to income per capita. How much of debt per capita as a percentage of their income -
China's per capita debt role recently but is still only 21 per cent of median wealth in mid-2019
In the US, by contrast, per capita debt amounted to 95 per cent of Americans’ median wealth in mid-2019.


After covid, the situation will be much more worse in US/west about the debt - US federal debt is well past their total GDP. Situation is worse in EU/UK. So when next time someone says debt is bad for China, ask them to check the numbers.
 

dbc

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Feb 1, 2009
4,478
11
4,824
Country
United States
Location
United States
It's hilarious when people say China has reached a tipping point of internal growth - did anyone check the household savings rate and compared it to other developed economies? They have one of the highest domestic saving rate and along with the massive 1.4 billion population, it makes them the most lucrative markets for consumption driven economy. The west relies on consumption, whereas the Chinese (and to certain extent Indians) first thinks about saving then consumption. When there is a gradual shift towards consumption, there will be huge potential for internal growth.

Quoted from a paper by IMF -



Also look at their debt per capita, their debt is well controlled and will have no problems to fund more massive infrastructure projects in future - I am talking about projects in scale of hundreds of billions or more.

Another important stats that people ignore is about debt compared to income per capita. How much of debt per capita as a percentage of their income -
China's per capita debt role recently but is still only 21 per cent of median wealth in mid-2019
In the US, by contrast, per capita debt amounted to 95 per cent of Americans’ median wealth in mid-2019.


After covid, the situation will be much more worse in US/west about the debt - US federal debt is well past their total GDP. Situation is worse in EU/UK. So when next time someone says debt is bad for China, ask them to check the numbers.
Wrong US household savings rate was at 26% in 2020 while you cite IMF figures for China from 2018. China’s savings rate has increased in 2020, China’s saving rates have been higher because their welfare system is underdeveloped and Chinese households are worried about uncertain times. Regardless, your argument falls apart because the Chinese have less disposable income so a higher savings rate translates to less real impact in USD. American households contributed half of the total global excess savings in 2020 despite Chinese households contributing a larger percent of their disposable income. China’s total debt to GDP ratio currently stands at 335% So your assertion that the situation is worst in the US/UK is once again ..incorrect.

The savings rate among Chinese households jumped to 33.9% of disposable income by the end of 2020 from around 30% in 2019, Goldman Sachs estimates. It’s slowly inched up from below 29% in 2013 due to rising precautionary saving as the social welfare network in the country is still under development, according to the report.

The cash hoard is small compared with the U.S., which the investment bank estimates has excess savings of 11% of GDP. Bloomberg Economics calculates extra savings globally to be $2.9 trillion, with American households contributing half of that.


The consequences for savings were dramatic. The savings rate in the United States rose from 7.3% in Q4 2019 to 9.6% in Q1 2020 and then to 26.0% in Q2 2020.

 

StraightEdge

FULL MEMBER
Jan 21, 2021
217
-2
167
Country
India
Location
India
Wrong US household savings rate was at 26% in 2020 while you cite IMF figures for China from 2018. China’s savings rate has increased in 2020, China’s saving rates have been higher because their welfare system is underdeveloped and Chinese households are worried about uncertain times. Regardless, your argument falls apart because the Chinese have less disposable income so a higher savings rate translates to less real impact in USD. American households contributed half of the total global excess savings in 2020 despite Chinese households contributing a larger percent of their disposable income. China’s total debt to GDP ratio currently stands at 335% So your assertion that the situation is worst in the US/UK is once again ..incorrect.

The savings rate among Chinese households jumped to 33.9% of disposable income by the end of 2020 from around 30% in 2019, Goldman Sachs estimates. It’s slowly inched up from below 29% in 2013 due to rising precautionary saving as the social welfare network in the country is still under development, according to the report.

The cash hoard is small compared with the U.S., which the investment bank estimates has excess savings of 11% of GDP. Bloomberg Economics calculates extra savings globally to be $2.9 trillion, with American households contributing half of that.


The consequences for savings were dramatic. The savings rate in the United States rose from 7.3% in Q4 2019 to 9.6% in Q1 2020 and then to 26.0% in Q2 2020.

You are comparing total debt vs govt debt, I don't know you did that intentionally or by mistake. When I said US federal debt, I mean only the debt for US govt. You quoted China's total debt which includes financial and non-financial corporate debt. If you look at total debt, US and other developed economies are at similar level. Don't forget all the mega infrastructure projects that China already completed are very capital intensive and would have caused most of the debts. This is something which US is yet to do.

Debt.png


As for household saving, Chinese traditionally always tried to save more, but over past decade they have been spending more, a trend which obviously was impacted by the covid situation. As far as I know the govt have been pushing for more consumer driven economy and it will take another decade or 2 to get to that level. But the signs are there in the past decade that they are spending more than before.

Savings.png
 

Globenim

SENIOR MEMBER
Aug 19, 2011
2,767
-3
4,751
Country
China
Location
Thailand
Nothing that can be compensated by daily repetition of lazy lies of US regime set up and financed "indpendent experts" making up and recylcling bogus economic numbers and mental gymnastics echoed daily by independent US regime run and controlled media mouthtpieces reassuring their biggest adversary is forever imploding or just seconds away from it for the last 30 years and definitely not a legitimate competently ruled country that is simply growing and doing well because its doing some many things right. 🙄
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom