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China still 30 years from being a top manufacturer: Ex-minister

aziqbal

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Why are trolls so disturbed by this latest development?
China still 30 years from being a top manufacturer: Ex-minister
Former industry minister Miao Wei says China’s basic capabilities are ‘still weak’ and risks have significantly increased.

A former industry minister said that the risk of being 'hit in the throat' have increased for China [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]

A former industry minister said that the risk of being 'hit in the throat' have increased for China [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
8 Mar 2021
China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of “great power”, according to a former industry minister, despite boasting the world’s most complete industrial supply chains.
In recent years, China has become the world’s top manufacturing nation, accounting for more than a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries’ heavy dependence on US high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.
KEEP READING
China sets modest 6% economic growth target amid COVID reboundUS slams China’s ‘direct attack’ on Hong Kong’s autonomyChina posts record exports as global demand recovers from COVIDChina urges US to reverse ‘dangerous practice’ on Taiwan
“Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others and the risk of ‘being hit in the throat’ and having ‘a slipped bike chain’ has significantly increased,” Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for 10 years before stepping down last year, said on Sunday.
As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly more than a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), the lowest since 2012.
“The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy’s ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness,” said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.
‘Big but not strong’
President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate and firms need to tackle “bottleneck” technologies to become fully innovative.

“China’s manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being ‘big but not strong’ and ‘comprehensive but not good’ has not been fundamentally changed,” Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.
While the tax burden on companies remains heavy and financial support of the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.
“We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies.”
Exports surge

Miao’s comments coincided with data from the General Administration of Customs showing that China’s exports surged in the first two months of the year, reflecting strong global demand for manufactured goods and with figures partly skewed by the low base in 2020 when the economy was in lockdown.

Exports jumped 60.6 percent in dollar terms in the January-February period from a year earlier, well above the 40 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In February alone, exports more than doubled from last year.

However, in the longer term, “we see uncertainty for exports in the second half of the year as external demand for working-from-home and anti-epidemic goods may start to slow, alongside the pandemic staying in check. In addition, more export economies would return to the market, potentially leading to more intensive competition in global markets,” David Qu, a China economist told Bloomberg.
The value of exports declined to almost $205bn in February, likely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. However, that was still 155 percent higher than shipments in the same month in 2020, when China was in lockdown to contain the first outbreak of COVID-19.
 

aziqbal

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and for all the Chinese still overseas: practice legal self defense when possible. follow all relevant local laws.
China says manufacturing 'greatness' still 30 years away
Published8 March
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China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of great power.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTQILAI SHEN
China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a government advisor told party delegates on Sunday.
Many observers already see China as the "world's factory" given that more than a third of global output from cars to phones comes from there.
But China's leaders are concerned about its heavy dependence on the US for high-tech products like semiconductors.
"Basic capabilities are still weak" Miao Wei warned on Sunday.
"Core technologies are in the hands of others" and China runs the risk of "being hit in the throat" warned Mr Miao, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade.
He is now a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.
Although China still produces a significant amount of consumer and industrial products, its manufacturing output as a share of its economy has declined.
Last year, manufacturing accounted for slightly over a quarter of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the lowest level since 2012.
"The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly" Mr Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
"China's manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being big but not strong and comprehensive but not good has not been fundamentally changed," Mr Miao added.
Tech battle
China also laid out its draft economic plan for the next five years. It wants to speed up the development of advanced technologies from chips to artificial intelligence.
The initiatives follow repeated blocks on China's access to US technology under the Trump administration. Chinese companies such as Huawei have been cut off from buying critical components.
Establishing its own world-class domestic chip makers has become a top priority for Chinese leaders.
Its five-year plan targets seven strategic areas considered essential to national security and includes AI, quantum computing, neuroscience and aerospace.
The blueprint reiterates China's desire to increase competitiveness in aircraft development, robotics and new-energy vehicles.
 

Beast

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China still 30 years from being a top manufacturer: Ex-minister
Former industry minister Miao Wei says China’s basic capabilities are ‘still weak’ and risks have significantly increased.

A former industry minister said that the risk of being 'hit in the throat' have increased for China [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]'hit in the throat' have increased for China [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]

A former industry minister said that the risk of being 'hit in the throat' have increased for China [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
8 Mar 2021
China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of “great power”, according to a former industry minister, despite boasting the world’s most complete industrial supply chains.
In recent years, China has become the world’s top manufacturing nation, accounting for more than a third of global output, driven by domestic demand to produce everything from motor vehicles to industrial machinery. But its industries’ heavy dependence on US high-tech products such as semiconductors constituted a strategic weakness.
KEEP READING
China sets modest 6% economic growth target amid COVID reboundUS slams China’s ‘direct attack’ on Hong Kong’s autonomyChina posts record exports as global demand recovers from COVIDChina urges US to reverse ‘dangerous practice’ on Taiwan
“Basic capabilities are still weak, core technologies are in the hands of others and the risk of ‘being hit in the throat’ and having ‘a slipped bike chain’ has significantly increased,” Miao Wei, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for 10 years before stepping down last year, said on Sunday.
As the Chinese economy pivots towards a services-based model and polluting smoke-stack factories are mothballed, manufacturing output as a share of the economy has declined. In 2020, manufacturing accounted for slightly more than a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), the lowest since 2012.
“The ratio of manufacturing output to GDP has been declining too early and too quickly, which not only weighs on economic growth and affects employment, but also brings security loopholes to our industries and diminishes our economy’s ability to withstand risks, and its global competitiveness,” said Miao, now a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body to the government.
‘Big but not strong’
President Xi Jinping said in November that innovation in the manufacturing industry is far from adequate and firms need to tackle “bottleneck” technologies to become fully innovative.

“China’s manufacturing industry has made great achievements in recent years, but the situation of being ‘big but not strong’ and ‘comprehensive but not good’ has not been fundamentally changed,” Miao said in a speech to CPPCC delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
There are many problems restricting the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing but the most fundamental one is insufficient market-oriented reforms, Miao said.
While the tax burden on companies remains heavy and financial support of the manufacturing sector needs strengthening urgently, a shortage of innovative and high-tech talent has also significantly constrained development of the sector, Miao added.
“We must maintain our strategic resolve, stay clear-headed and deeply understand the gaps and deficiencies.”
Exports surge

Miao’s comments coincided with data from the General Administration of Customs showing that China’s exports surged in the first two months of the year, reflecting strong global demand for manufactured goods and with figures partly skewed by the low base in 2020 when the economy was in lockdown.

Exports jumped 60.6 percent in dollar terms in the January-February period from a year earlier, well above the 40 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In February alone, exports more than doubled from last year.

However, in the longer term, “we see uncertainty for exports in the second half of the year as external demand for working-from-home and anti-epidemic goods may start to slow, alongside the pandemic staying in check. In addition, more export economies would return to the market, potentially leading to more intensive competition in global markets,” David Qu, a China economist told Bloomberg.
The value of exports declined to almost $205bn in February, likely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. However, that was still 155 percent higher than shipments in the same month in 2020, when China was in lockdown to contain the first outbreak of COVID-19.
Glad you all take the bait! :enjoy: Go ahead and believe an ex minster who claim China manufacturing is 30 years behind western. Trump and Biden are not dumb idiots like some. There is reason why they insist to fight trade war with China.

I really wish Trump and BIden can trust such article about China 30 years behind them in manufacturing. :enjoy:
 

aziqbal

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Glad you all take the bait! :enjoy: Go ahead and believe an ex minster who claim China manufacturing is 30 years behind western. Trump and Biden are not dumb idiots like some. There is reason why they insist to fight trade war with China.

I really wish Trump and BIden can trust such article about China 30 years behind them in manufacturing. :enjoy:
China is not a technology superpower. Stop treating it like one
Business & Technology
Paul Triolo Published October 1, 2019
Share this article


It’s a common argument in the debate about how to respond to China’s technology rise: Beijing is intent on “catching up and surpassing” the West in advanced technologies. The Chinese Communist Party’s ambition to make China “self-sufficient” in sectors like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing threatens to displace Silicon Valley and poses risks to the U.S. economy and military superiority, the argument goes.
The U.S. and China are embroiled in a $360 billion trade and technology confrontation largely because of how successfully the “catch up and surpass” meme has taken hold in Washington. But the underlying reasoning — artfully captured in recent pieces such as Julian Baird Gewirtz’s recent article in Foreign Affairs, “China’s Long March to Technological Supremacy” — is flawed. At best, it puts too much stock in the Chinese government’s ability to drive cutting-edge innovation. At worst, by ascribing technology superpowers to China, Washington risks an overreaction that could undermine U.S. firms’ own ability to innovate.

Like all good tropes, there is a kernel truth to concerns about China’s rising tech prowess. China’s big platform companies and a growing number of unicorns increasingly compete head-to-head with large Silicon Valley firms. The U.S. has no company comparable to Huawei in 5G. And unlike the U.S., Beijing isn’t shy about setting big industrial policy goals and throwing money at them. Under President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平, the Communist Party made a big show of programs such as Made in China 2025 and its New Generation AI Development Plan (AIDP).
The first mistake many Western observers make is assuming that aspirational government policies drive Chinese private-sector innovation and not the other way around. The second is to think that government rhetoric is the same thing as a coherent and achievable strategy. Both mistakes stem from confusion about how innovation works in the real world.
Here’s a reality check: When is China going to be able to develop “self-sufficiency” in cutting-edge semiconductors? Maybe never. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment? Maybe never. An alternative software stack for the cloud? Maybe for China, but not one that can compete globally. Enterprise software? Same.
China’s policy support for digital innovation has an uneven track record. The AIDP was out of date the moment it was published. And while China has caught up in simpler technologies like solar cells or high-speed rail, showy investments in more advanced sectors like semiconductors have failed to catapult China past the West — despite favorable government subsidies and what could generously be called a lax attitude toward intellectual property protections.
For Chinese technology companies, all this talk of tech dominance and self-sufficiency must seem odd. Huawei, Alibaba, and the like historically have tended to do what makes the most business sense — developing or acquiring technologies where they perceive they have a competitive edge, while relying on Western firms to fill in the gaps necessary to compete in global markets. And here, supposed shortcuts such as illicitly acquiring technology do not constitute a viable business model and can only provide limited benefits without an innovative workforce, stable and adaptive management, and a realistic long-term business model and strategy.
Huawei’s reliance on Google’s Android operating system for its smartphones is a good example — global consumers who dropped Huawei handsets after it was cut off from Android are unlikely to be tempted back by a home-grown Huawei alternative OS that will lack many popular Google apps. Huawei’s chip design arm HiSilicon may be China’s leading semiconductor success story, but Huawei’s investments in chips were not driven by government fiat so much as by the desire to drive down the cost of its smartphones and base stations by reducing the royalties the company pays to Western suppliers.
Although HiSilicon can now produce AI, baseband, and smartphone core processor chips on par with leading Western designs, it is far from “self-sufficient”: It relies on chip design tools from the U.S. and Germany, licenses microprocessor reference frameworks from ARM, and outsources manufacturing to TSMC in Taiwan, which uses fabrication techniques that Chinese mainland companies can’t hope to match.
This is the flaw of the “catching up and surpassing” meme. It is simply unfeasible for China — or any other country — to replace the high-tech ecosystems in which the country’s leading tech firms are embedded with home-grown alternatives.
Are Chinese tech firms catching up and overtaking U.S. and Western rivals in some areas? Sure, just like Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese companies did during a previous era of technology development. Chinese firms probably also enjoy some unfair advantages over Western competitors. But it’s false to think Chinese firms could or would want to supplant Western innovation everywhere.
The irony is that U.S. policy actions such as placing Huawei on the Commerce Department’s Entity List will force Chinese companies down a different road: designing out U.S. semiconductors and developing viable alternatives to existing options like Android. That will be an expensive an inefficient process – and not just for China: a long-term technology rift would also put revenue of leading U.S. tech suppliers at risk, sapping the funds available for the next generation of innovation.
Beijing can talk up its desire for dominance and self-sufficiency all it wants. The global success of Chinese tech firms will depend much more on individual companies’ ability to anticipate and respond to constantly evolving and market-driven customer demands, technology trends, and the actions of competitors. Indeed, the more complex and interconnected and global the technology ecosystem, the less successful governments are likely to be in directing technology development. And in the case of Chinese global players, more government involvement is more likely to hinder their efforts to compete.
Western policymakers should have more faith in the system that has gotten them this far; instead, they are acting as though China is 800 feet tall. History suggests that when a country ascribes superpowers to its adversaries, policy mistakes tend to follow.
 

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Mark my word today, within the next 5~10 year China will be the world factory for semiconductors.

None of fhe other nations will have the economy of scale to challenge China whether it is in innovation or patent rights.

Huawei revenue dropped 16% as expected due to UNFAIR trade practice by USA using unfounded allegations but Huawei profit wenf up 12%. Thanks to royalties paid by others for its 100,000 patent rights.
 

aziqbal

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Mark my word today, within the next 5~10 year China will be the world factory for semiconductors.

None of fhe other nations will have the economy of scale to challenge China whether it is in innovation or patent rights.

Huawei revenue dropped 16% as expected due to UNFAIR trade practice by USA using unfounded allegations but Huawei profit wenf up 12%. Thanks to royalties paid by others for its 100,000 patent rights.
tats what Chinese were saying 30 years ago
 

Paul2

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If not China, then who is?:rofl:

Who glops 50% of world's semiconductor output, who makes 1 gigaton of steel, who is the biggest trade supplier of world's biggest economies?

Semiconductors, jet engines etc have little bearing on the fact that if China is to embargo anybody, that country's populace will struggle keep its pants on.

If anybody wants to challenge that, I dare them to just closed the lead with us on any major industrial commodity, or good.
 

aziqbal

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If not China, then who is?:rofl:

Who glops 50% of world's semiconductor output, who makes 1 gigaton of steel, who is the biggest trade supplier of world's biggest economies?

Semiconductors, jet engines etc have little bearing on the fact that if China is to embargo anybody, that country's populace will struggle keep its pants on.

If anybody wants to challenge that, I dare them to just closed the lead with us on any major industrial commodity, or good.
the point is some Chinese were claiming it is a innovation economy

when clearly its not
 

Paul2

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the point is some Chinese were claiming it is a innovation economy

when clearly its not
Can US make infra projects comparable to even what 3rd tier cities in China do? I tell you, they will spend more time just to find out what American contractor can do it, than it takes to build the thing.

RnD? Lol, nearly all of electronics RnD has went to China 1 decade+ ago. Americans come to China to have things designed, not the other way around.

Apple is so ashamed of this fact that they even stamp their stuff with "Designed in California" in big bold letters, as if they think it will obviate the fact of them having their RnD offices in China.
 
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beijingwalker

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But China is the only country in the world that can make everything by herself and everything for this world.

China becomes world leader in industrial economy scale
Updated: 2019-09-23 17:05
China became the world leader on the industrial economy scale, with the digital economy scale reaching 31 trillion yuan ($4.36 trillion) in 2018, accounting for one-third of the country's GDP, Sina Finance reported on Monday.

China has become the only country in the world to obtain all the industrial categories listed in the United Nations industrial classification, said Miao Wei, minister of industry and information technology, at a news conference on Friday.

The industrial added value of the country saw an average annual growth of 11 percent from 12 billion yuan in 1952, to over 30 trillion yuan in 2018, Miao said.

The country's added value of the manufacturing industry accounted for over 28 percent of the world's total in 2018, becoming an important engine driving world industrial growth. Among the world's more than 500 major industrial products, China ranks first in output at over 220.

Statistics from the World Bank indicate the added value of China's manufacturing industry surpassed that of the United States to become the world's number one manufacturing country in 2010.

Meanwhile, the technological innovation capacity of China's industrial communications industry has greatly improved and the country has the largest number of necessary patents for 5G standards.

In the past 70 years, China's small and medium companies and private companies played an important role in increasing employment, keeping stable growth and stimulating innovation, according to Miao.

By the end of 2018, the number of small and middle-sized companies surpassed 30 million and the number of self-employed industrial and commercial households exceeded 70 million. These contributed over 50 percent of the country's tax revenue, over 60 percent of the GDP, over 70 percent of technological innovations and more than 80 percent of labor force employment.

Miao also emphasized the importance of promoting high-quality development of major technical equipment, including the homegrown large passenger plane the C919, which effectively promoted the upgrading of China's industrial technology and enhanced basic industrial capacity and the industrial chain on the one hand.

On the other hand, major technical equipment could also provide basic support to key areas in the national economic development, including energy, petrochemicals and transportation, Miao added.

China will continue to take supply-side structural reform as its main task, and work to address major weaknesses in research and development, engineering, and industrialization to enhance our innovation capabilities and promote the high-quality development of major technical equipment, according to Miao.

 

antonius123

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China is not a technology superpower. Stop treating it like one
Business & Technology
Paul Triolo Published October 1, 2019
Share this article


It’s a common argument in the debate about how to respond to China’s technology rise: Beijing is intent on “catching up and surpassing” the West in advanced technologies. The Chinese Communist Party’s ambition to make China “self-sufficient” in sectors like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing threatens to displace Silicon Valley and poses risks to the U.S. economy and military superiority, the argument goes.
The U.S. and China are embroiled in a $360 billion trade and technology confrontation largely because of how successfully the “catch up and surpass” meme has taken hold in Washington. But the underlying reasoning — artfully captured in recent pieces such as Julian Baird Gewirtz’s recent article in Foreign Affairs, “China’s Long March to Technological Supremacy” — is flawed. At best, it puts too much stock in the Chinese government’s ability to drive cutting-edge innovation. At worst, by ascribing technology superpowers to China, Washington risks an overreaction that could undermine U.S. firms’ own ability to innovate.

Like all good tropes, there is a kernel truth to concerns about China’s rising tech prowess. China’s big platform companies and a growing number of unicorns increasingly compete head-to-head with large Silicon Valley firms. The U.S. has no company comparable to Huawei in 5G. And unlike the U.S., Beijing isn’t shy about setting big industrial policy goals and throwing money at them. Under President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平, the Communist Party made a big show of programs such as Made in China 2025 and its New Generation AI Development Plan (AIDP).
The first mistake many Western observers make is assuming that aspirational government policies drive Chinese private-sector innovation and not the other way around. The second is to think that government rhetoric is the same thing as a coherent and achievable strategy. Both mistakes stem from confusion about how innovation works in the real world.
Here’s a reality check: When is China going to be able to develop “self-sufficiency” in cutting-edge semiconductors? Maybe never. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment? Maybe never. An alternative software stack for the cloud? Maybe for China, but not one that can compete globally. Enterprise software? Same.
China’s policy support for digital innovation has an uneven track record. The AIDP was out of date the moment it was published. And while China has caught up in simpler technologies like solar cells or high-speed rail, showy investments in more advanced sectors like semiconductors have failed to catapult China past the West — despite favorable government subsidies and what could generously be called a lax attitude toward intellectual property protections.
For Chinese technology companies, all this talk of tech dominance and self-sufficiency must seem odd. Huawei, Alibaba, and the like historically have tended to do what makes the most business sense — developing or acquiring technologies where they perceive they have a competitive edge, while relying on Western firms to fill in the gaps necessary to compete in global markets. And here, supposed shortcuts such as illicitly acquiring technology do not constitute a viable business model and can only provide limited benefits without an innovative workforce, stable and adaptive management, and a realistic long-term business model and strategy.
Huawei’s reliance on Google’s Android operating system for its smartphones is a good example — global consumers who dropped Huawei handsets after it was cut off from Android are unlikely to be tempted back by a home-grown Huawei alternative OS that will lack many popular Google apps. Huawei’s chip design arm HiSilicon may be China’s leading semiconductor success story, but Huawei’s investments in chips were not driven by government fiat so much as by the desire to drive down the cost of its smartphones and base stations by reducing the royalties the company pays to Western suppliers.
Although HiSilicon can now produce AI, baseband, and smartphone core processor chips on par with leading Western designs, it is far from “self-sufficient”: It relies on chip design tools from the U.S. and Germany, licenses microprocessor reference frameworks from ARM, and outsources manufacturing to TSMC in Taiwan, which uses fabrication techniques that Chinese mainland companies can’t hope to match.
This is the flaw of the “catching up and surpassing” meme. It is simply unfeasible for China — or any other country — to replace the high-tech ecosystems in which the country’s leading tech firms are embedded with home-grown alternatives.
Are Chinese tech firms catching up and overtaking U.S. and Western rivals in some areas? Sure, just like Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese companies did during a previous era of technology development. Chinese firms probably also enjoy some unfair advantages over Western competitors. But it’s false to think Chinese firms could or would want to supplant Western innovation everywhere.
The irony is that U.S. policy actions such as placing Huawei on the Commerce Department’s Entity List will force Chinese companies down a different road: designing out U.S. semiconductors and developing viable alternatives to existing options like Android. That will be an expensive an inefficient process – and not just for China: a long-term technology rift would also put revenue of leading U.S. tech suppliers at risk, sapping the funds available for the next generation of innovation.
Beijing can talk up its desire for dominance and self-sufficiency all it wants. The global success of Chinese tech firms will depend much more on individual companies’ ability to anticipate and respond to constantly evolving and market-driven customer demands, technology trends, and the actions of competitors. Indeed, the more complex and interconnected and global the technology ecosystem, the less successful governments are likely to be in directing technology development. And in the case of Chinese global players, more government involvement is more likely to hinder their efforts to compete.
Western policymakers should have more faith in the system that has gotten them this far; instead, they are acting as though China is 800 feet tall. History suggests that when a country ascribes superpowers to its adversaries, policy mistakes tend to follow.

The writer must be people like you :laugh:
 

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