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China and Iran: Destined to Clash?

Hyperion

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Most accurate analysis till date.

They sing it because of their requirements. Senators act on lobbies, and lobbies are payed for.
So essentially, it depends on the lobbyists. The Saudis pour billions into these while Israel has the Jewish population that supports the Zionist cause to pay for it.However, these lobbys do not control European ones and the US can ill afford a disengagement with the Europeans such as what happened in the Iraq war(except the 51st state thanks to Blair).

So the senators and congressmen must play a delicate balance of a gentle Iran while keeping their allies happy.
As such, they may seek to break up Iran in the same manner as they wish for Pakistan to carve out further territories. But realistically they would rather have a pacified Iran. Even Israel doesnt neccecarily need to stop bashing Iran even after peace overtures as it still needs a threat to justify spending on defence(It is after all a model democracy and accountable to its people). If Iran is to go pro US and shut up on Israel.. they will need to create another threat. Egypt might be a candidate but that is just conjecture...so Iran still had the role of Bogeyman to play. At the end, there will be NO conflict between Israel and Iran but it is quite likely the Middle east may be plunged into a "Muslim" Civil war with the GCC against the Iranians to essentially destabilize and devastate the area for future needs.
 

gambit

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Are we the ones threatening to invade and attack Iran?

No Surenas, that would be your dear Israel and America.

Are we the ones putting Iran under sanctions?

No Surenas, that would be your dear Israel and America
Looks like you did not read the article. No surprise there.
 

Zabaniyah

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If China does establish a military presence in the Middle East it will find itself directly at odds with Iran on one of the latter’s core interests – from long before the Shah through the present day, Iran has always harbored regional ambitions. Given its size, relative stability and coherence, in modern times Iran has always seen the presence of external powers in the Middle East as the main obstacle to it achieving these ambitions. Operating from Gwadar Port in southern Pakistan, a PLA Navy presence in the Persian Gulf would find itself even more in the crosshairs of Iran than the United States currently is. By necessity, Iran as a rising regional naval power and China as a global one would be destined to clash.
The article may be far-fetched. But it is mainly a question of "if".

Very interesting nonetheless.
 

vostok

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I don't know why you excluded Russia from Central Asia. Russia has quite successful return policy in the region - is building a hydroelectric power plants, arms army, restores military bases. Kazakhstan is a member of Customs Union, which soon will join Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have already submitted their applications. Then they will enter into Eurasian Union. Russian troops will guard the old Soviet border. All politics of the region - the pupils of the Soviet political school and Russia has enough levers to influence them.
The only problem - Uzbekistan, it tries to sit on all the chairs immediately and considers itself as a player not the figure on the board. But it probably waits for a period of instability and may be even desintegrate and reunite with the Union in parts.
Turkmenistan is the only country where Iran or China can compete with Russia.
 

rmi5

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I don't know why you excluded Russia from Central Asia. Russia has quite successful return policy in the region - is building a hydroelectric power plants, arms army, restores military bases. Kazakhstan is a member of Customs Union, which soon will join Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have already submitted their applications. Then they will enter into Eurasian Union. Russian troops will guard the old Soviet border. All politics of the region - the pupils of the Soviet political school and Russia has enough levers to influence them.
The only problem - Uzbekistan, it tries to sit on all the chairs immediately and considers itself as a player not the figure on the board. But it probably waits for a period of instability and may be even desintegrate and reunite with the Union in parts.
Turkmenistan is the only country where Iran or China can compete with Russia.
Actually, for Iran, the most important countries of central asia are Tajikstan, and Turkmenistan. about Tajikstan , you are not right, China has an enormous economical presence there, and Iran has lots of big projects there, from transportation to building dams, and also you need to know that tajiks consider themselves very close to Iranians. many of them even say that we are one nation living in two countries.
 

vostok

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Actually, for Iran, the most important countries of central asia are Tajikstan, and Turkmenistan. about Tajikstan , you are not right, China has an enormous economical presence there, and Iran has lots of big projects there, from transportation to building dams, and also you need to know that tajiks consider themselves very close to Iranians. many of them even say that we are one nation living in two countries.
I do not think that Russia opposed to your investments in the economy of these countries - do business, trade. But there will be standing Russian troops.
 

shuttler

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You have to recognise the source of the article: the "notorious" diplomat

Yes there are a lot of "ifs". doesnt usa sell weapons to both Pakistan and india, to the Arab world and Israel, like wise the Brits here:

Britain sent poison chemicals to Assad: Proof that UK delivered Sarin agent to Syrian regime | Mail Online

The article said about China's goods selling to Iran thereby destroying their own industry. That is globalization and americans, japanese et al are doing the same damn thing on us and other countries capturing our markets in fmcg, automobiles,electronic gadgets too. It is just absurd!

The purpose of the writer is trying to create tensions between the 2 countries. unnecessarily in a stupid way
 

rmi5

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The purpose of the writer is trying to create tensions between the 2 countries. unnecessarily in a stupid way
totally agreed.

I do not think that Russia opposed to your investments in the economy of these countries - do business, trade. But there will be standing Russian troops.
As long as you don't try to use those forces against Iran, it would be fine for Iranians ;)
 

ای ایران

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Iran is actually opening up to China and relaxing its visa rules for many countries around the World except for a handful where visitors will continue to face visa restrictions (UK, USA, Afghanistan, Pakistan and some others):

Iran opens doors to tourists as Rouhani fosters thaw in relations with the west

New atmosphere under reformist president sees visa rules eased with Chinese visitors a priority for sanctions-hit country

With its ancient ruins, glittering mosques and spectacular landscapes, Iran is home to some of the world's cultural treasures, but ever since the 1979 revolution, these have largely remained unseen by international tourists. In recent years, the country's most high-profile visitors have been nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Now, however, the new administration of Hassan Rouhani is taking steps to open up Iran to foreigners in an effort to improve its international image after the gloomy years under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – and to bring in much-needed foreign currency to an economy reeling from years of sanctions.

Mohammad-Ali Najafi, a vice-president and the head of the country's cultural heritage and tourism organisation, said Iran was overhauling its strict immigration rules to ease or abolish visa requirements for most foreign visitors.

"From the next two or three months, I predict that the number of foreign tourists who come to visit Iran as a tourist will greatly increase," said Najafi in a telephone interview from Tehran.

Najafi admitted some senior officials had been concerned at the prospect of allowing large numbers of tourists – especially westerners – in without prior security checks, but said that since Rouhani took office in August Iran's tourism body had eventually secured their support – and government approval.

The authorities will divide countries into three categories, Najafi said. Tourists from countries in the first group will not need a visa; visitors from the second group will be allowed in without a visa as long as they are part of an organised tour group; and visa procedures for the third group will be eased – meaning that many will be able to obtain a visa on arrival.

"Western countries will most probably be categorised in the second or third group," he said.

The semi-official Isna news agency has reported that except for 10 countries, including Britain, the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan, foreign tourists will be able to obtain visas upon arrival at the airport.

In September, Najafi was with Rouhani as the president travelled to New York for the UN general assembly. That visit marked a huge breakthrough in relations with the US, with the first direct talks between American and Iranian presidents since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, and renewed hopes that a solution can be found to the stalemate over Iran's nuclear programme.

The trip also opened up the possibility of a boost for the country's tourism industry. "When I was in America, I personally met with a number of tour operators, mainly those who are operated by Iranians in the US or non-Iranians who have had experience in dealing with Iran in the past," Najafi said.

After he was sworn in, Rouhani initially nominated Najafi as education minister but parliament accused him of previously having sided with the opposition Green movement and refused to sanction his appointment. Instead, Rouhani made him a vice-president, a cabinet position that does not require a parliamentary vote.

Iranians have also seen encouraging signs of the thaw at home: high-profile political prisoners have been released and the media face fewer restrictions. Najafi said the new political atmosphere had already encouraged more visitors.

"Over the past two months, many travel agencies have reported to us that the number of foreign tourists who have signed up to their Iran tours has increased a lot," he said. According to Najafi, four million foreign visitors came last year, mainly pilgrims from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Iraq who went to religious sites such as the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, a revered Shia site. "We don't have exact figures but we estimate that last year our tourism industry helped add some $2bn [£1.3bn] to our revenue," said Najafi. Now, Najafi said, the target was $10bn.

Goodwill ambassadors

Chinese tourists are a priority. "World figures show that China sends more tourists to visit other countries than anywhere else," Najafi said. "With help from our embassy in China, we have spoken to Chinese tourism officials and we have invited a number of them to come to Iran."

Najafi hoped foreign tourists would become "ambassadors for the goodwill of our country and our people" in the world. "We have a secure and safe country in our region … but we in Iran should take the first step in persuading westerners that they should have no fear in coming to Iran."

Unesco has so far declared16 world heritage sites in Iran, which was historically referred to as Persia in the west up until the 20th century.

In recent years, Iran's culture and heritage have fallen victim to the political dispute between Tehran and the west, which has dominated the global discourse on Iran. Brandon Stanton, an American citizen who travelled to Iran last year, attracted attention on returning home by posting an itinerary, along with pictures of Iran, on the Human of New York photo blog.

"Americans are especially loved," he wrote with astonishment. "This was noted in every travel account that I read, and I can confirm the fact. You will be smiled at, waved at, invited to meals, and asked to deliver personal messages to Jennifer Lopez. American music, movies, and media are thoroughly consumed by the people of Iran."

Amos Chapple, a photographer from New Zealand who has visited Iran on a number of times, said the Iran he saw was utterly different from the one represented in the west.

"Every traveller I met felt the same way: they had arrived expecting hostility and danger, but ended up amongst the most cosmopolitan and generous people in the Middle East," he said.

"Having visited three times it's just heartbreaking to see what damage the sanctions are doing to ordinary people who have nothing but goodwill towards America."

Zoe Holman, an Australian journalist who visited Iran for the first time in 2003, said: "Despite the divisions between 'the Muslim' and 'the west' being projected in geopolitics by the 'war on terror' and Iraq war, I was surprised, and humbled, to discover that none of these prejudices seemed to have trickled down to affect Iranian attitudes towards westerners.

"I was struck by the cosmopolitanism of urban Iranians, their education, open-mindedness and their humorous irreverence for the religious regime which governed them."

The Foreign Office currently advises against all but essential travel to most of Iran. Unlike tourists, journalists – especially those working for the foreign press – are usually unwelcome in the Islamic republic.
 

ای ایران

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As John Garver has noted, China has made it clear that it values its relationship with Pakistan more than its ties to Iran. If forced to choose between them, Beijing will side with Islamabad.
If true, it could only be for the reason of the client state reltionship Pakistan has with China. They surely are not equal partners and Pakistan is not an important trading partner for China, even though China is one of Pakistan's largest and most important trading partners.

China-Iran trade, according to the article you posted, in recent times has reached at around US $45 billon, whereas China-Pakistan trade is a meagre US $12 billion, US $9 billion of that Chinese exports, and only US $3 billion of that Pakistani exports (Pakistan, China commit to broaden economic relations). Pretty one sided.

Also Chinese investment in Iran is about US $18.6 billion (BBC News - What does China own in Britain?), whereas Chinese investment in Pakistan was only a paltry US $2 billion in 2012 (Pakistan’s Sharif Looks to China for Boost on Foreign Debut)



Pakistan doesnt even register on China's top destinations for investment.

What real use is Pakistan for China? Certainly, China has zero economic need for Pakistan as the figures clearly show.

Keck might need to do some revision on his piece. Interesting article nonetheless.
 

vostok

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As long as you don't try to use those forces against Iran, it would be fine for Iranians ;)
If you do not think conquer Tajikistan you have nothing to worry about.
Just after Tajikistan join the Eurasian Union, it will report to supranational regulators. You will have to deal not alone with Tajikistan, and with the Eurasian Union.
 

sinocommander

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If you do not think conquer Tajikistan's you have nothing to worry about.
Just after Tajikistan join the Eurasian Union, it will report to supranational regulators. You will have to deal not alone with Tajikistan, and with the Eurasian Union.
I support Russia.And iran will not harm a hair of tajikistan as long it is under russian protection .
 

Gandhi G in da house

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ای ایران;4886098 said:
If true, it could only be for the reason of the client state reltionship Pakistan has with China. They surely are not equal partners and Pakistan is not an important trading partner for China, even though China is one of Pakistan's largest and most important trading partners.

China-Iran trade, according to the article you posted, in recent times has reached at around US $45 billon, whereas China-Pakistan trade is a meagre US $12 billion, US $9 billion of that Chinese exports, and only US $3 billion of that Pakistani exports (Pakistan, China commit to broaden economic relations). Pretty one sided.

Also Chinese investment in Iran is about US $18.6 billion (BBC News - What does China own in Britain?), whereas Chinese investment in Pakistan was only a paltry US $2 billion in 2012 (Pakistan’s Sharif Looks to China for Boost on Foreign Debut)



Pakistan doesnt even register on China's top destinations for investment.

What real use is Pakistan for China? Certainly, China has zero economic need for Pakistan as the figures clearly show.

Keck might need to do some revision on his piece. Interesting article nonetheless.
China and Pakistan have a mutual antipathy towards India and China as is mentioned in the article uses Pakistan to keep India tied up. That is pretty much all the importance that Pakistan has for China even though some Chinese on here may not agree , but this makes Pakistan fairly important for China.
 

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