It'd be interesting to see what the breakdown in WS-10C equipped vs AL-31FN equipped J-20 is. Clearly, production has picked up in the last couple of year as J-20 switched to using WS-10C. Aside from engine, I'd imagine other subsystems have also matured a lot more leading to more production.
From what I can see, basically 2 out of 3 daduis in FTTC uses AL-31FN + all of 9th brigade. That would indicate 45 to 50 production J-20s using AL-31FNs.
All of 1st and 5th brigade, 1 out of 3 daduis in FTTC are using WS-10C. Assuming that CAC does 2 major deliveries a year. The mid year delivery probably filled up most of the 1st brigade (which is how we saw all those pictures coming out) and started maybe 4 aircraft in 5th brigade. And the end of the year deliveries filled up all of 1st brigade and maybe half of 5th brigade. That would mean about 55 production J-20s using WS-10C if we include all of the end of the year deliveries that have not really started training yet.
If I had to guess, their yearly production would look something like this. What do you think
@Deino?
2016 4
2017 10
2018 16
2019 20
2020 20
2021 32
Keep in mind that in the second half of 2021, they may well have been producing 3 to 4 a month. And if the news of shifting J-10 production to Guizhou is true, then they will probably be at 45 to 50 J-20s a year by 2022. Still far behind the production rate of F-35, but that rate would be as high as J-10s were ever reached. I would imagine this jump would not have been possible if they were still dependent on the Russians for engine.
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