• Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Census 2017. Pakistan

Discussion in 'Social & Current Events' started by Kaptaan, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. Kaptaan

    Kaptaan PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    The census 2017 is over and we have the provisional results. As expected there are complaints from some about the accuracy of the census. In Pakistan o such exercise can be expectd to be completed without some complaints - mostly from the losers. As in all such endeavours there is going to be "winners and losers". The losing side will start croaking as soon as they smell things might have not gone their way.

    I was reading in Dawn the process of the census. What I was impressed about was how the army was used. Contrary to my assumption Pakistan Army did not just act as security but actually provided one side to the two pronged survey. The survey involved civilian staffers of PBS who did their counting on their papers. The military had it's own forms and soldiers did their own counting. Therefore we had two independant censuses being carried out simultanously but independantly of each other. The civilian PBS and the most trusted organization in Pakistan. The army.

    This was done because it was felt PBS staffer would be open to local or provincial manipulation. So by running a separate census simultanously by the army both would act as to balance out any "mistakes". Quote -

    "He explains the role of the army as “keeping a countercheck on the civilian side because we can’t be trusted with a headcount.”

    “the civilian dispensation is simply interested in doing a headcount; the army is being brought on board to lend credibility and they are doing their own headcount through an independent form printed by PBS for that purpose. If the results are not reliable and not comparable to other data collected, then the onus lies with the PBS.”

    "Separate forms to the tune of 55 million to be completed by the army will be stored with the military when the exercise has finished and in the case of identification of any differences they will cross check results with the forms completed by enumerators says PBS"


    https://www.dawn.com/news/1313981/p...why-this-extensive-exercise-will-be-defective

    Therefore we now know that the army filled out it's own forms, collated them and stored 55 million of them to validate and cross referance the PBS headcounts. COAS Gen. Bajwa loaned 200,000 soldiers for the task which was more then the civilian enumerators. It is therefore safe to conclude that census 2017 carries Pakistan Army validation. Indeed that is why the army was brought in. Not only did it provide security but it ran a parallel headcount.


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    Given this I am apt to think that Census 2017 was as good as could be expected in a country like Pakistan. What I want to know is why are people still dismissing this census? What would be neutral umpire? Indian Army? United Nations Force? Or the guys who are complaining should have done the survey? I want to hear from those who are not happy to address the points I raised and if they are not satisfied even with the Pakistan Army validation what would their proposal be? Are they questioning the armies credibility? Or COAS Bajwa?


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    @Joe Shearer Can you please, if you have time read this up and see if there are any glaring methodological flaws - keeping in mind this is Pakistan and not Norway. Your impartial input would be appreciated by me.
     
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  2. Joe Shearer

    Joe Shearer PROFESSIONAL

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    This evening?

    There are, as you know, methods for testing the validity of sample results, and this procedure can be profitable measured against those. A simple reading suggests that the validity of this method is significantly greater than a single, straightforward count. Let me get home, do my homework and write it up for you.

    This is personal for you, and nothing to do with the forum.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
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  3. Kambojaric

    Kambojaric SENIOR MEMBER

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    I think the only major group to oppose the result are those who thought Karachi's population was above 20 million let alone the around 15 million as reported by the census. Personally I thought the population would be higher than 15 million as well but given that the army has assisted in the census process I am willing to accept the figures, as it is a bipartisan entity.

    Further there is a trend of reverse migration from Karachi as well due to the serious security situation in the city as well as the corruption and existence of violent thugs belonging to the various political party's in the city. I personally know four relatives who have moved back to Punjab from Karachi due to violence and intimidation in recent years. The situation has improved in the last two years due to rangers action it should be pointed out.

    As per the census Karachi's population has still grown by 60% between 1998 and 2017, which is still very strong growth.
     
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  4. saiyan0321

    saiyan0321 SENIOR MEMBER

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    This is an amazing post and a fine question raised by the OP. The fact is that the ones who are making noise will only accept a census where their favorable results come to pass. Without it, they will absolutely refuse to accept it. This is simply another case of the constant cry of victimization that every citizen of Pakistan so wilfully participates without thinking for a second. Forget Pakistan army. The UN can do a census and these parties will reject it citing Zionist conspiracy or western conspiracy bcz as long as their own personal interests are not safe guarded they will continue to play victimization politics. The onus is on the people that whether they use their heads or they simply blindly believe the conspiracies.

    Many points in the census made sense ad they correlated with the WOT issues and the inrugency issues and they took into mark migrations and safety of cities.

    I knew from day one that the census would be rejected and controversial simply bcz in Pakistan everything is made controversial by the political parties especially the ethnic parties. Its their bread and butter. Whining and crying victimization is what sells in Pakistan.

    Quite frankly this stems from our own mentality that on a national level we believe in our victimization in the world and this is due to the populace having victim mentality. Its a never ending cycle and at this point one wonder's where is the government taking the state. What is the direction? What is the plan?

    Anyway that is another topic.

    Yes @Joe Shearer i would very very interested on your views on our census.

    Quite frankly this census is perhaps the most credible census we have ever held due to use of army and double recording.
     
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  5. Kaptaan

    Kaptaan PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    I actually began to have my doubts about the census after reading all the complaints I read - in particular with regards to Karachi. I then did my own lay observations like satellite imagery of Lahore and Karachi but the spread of the built environment proximated to the figures given by the census. There appeard to be no slip between Karachi and Lahore from what I could see but with all the hue and cry emanating from Karachi residents my doubts persisted - given that we had a PML Nawaz Sharif federal government and also in power in Lahore with Shebaz. It did seemed possible given Pakistan and proclivity for "fudging facts" the PML government had skewed the results in it's favour to the loss of Karachi.

    I was also told by many members from Pakistan that the soldiers just stood guard and the actual count was done by civilian PBS enumerators. Thus having the army their did not really make the count immune from being distorted and did not really carry Pakistan Army 'seal of approval' as it only provided security. However after reading this article I honestly was surprised that in face we had two headcounts in Pakistan. One done by the army. I am surprised non of the detractors mentioned this - indeed they reduced the armies role to just "observers".

    Thus my surprise after I read this article. I have no doubts now about the accuracy and consider it as good as your going to get in Pakistan. Karachi's population is correct as far as I am concerned.

    @Joe Shearer Noted and thanks!
     
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  6. Musafir117

    Musafir117 ELITE MEMBER

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    Bhai Army was helping the teams regarding security " mainly " or the work doing properly or not " may be " the point is the " figures " which is done by core corrupt elites.
    There is no problem in counting may be few missed but haramkhori done in office desks where Army not present. Peace
     
  7. Sher Shah Awan

    Sher Shah Awan SENIOR MEMBER

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    I also had my doubts when the initial figures were released but I do believe evidence is mounting that this census was the most balanced and thorough we have ever had. If we are willing to accept the results of 1998 census to a great extent, I do not see any reason to reject the 2017 based solely on our feelings and political leanings if as mentioned, the army did their own head count as well separate from the civvies.

    I don't believe this census was without fault, but I am willing to believe it is the closest we have ever got to in providing realistic statistics.
     
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  8. Musafir117

    Musafir117 ELITE MEMBER

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    Bhai ye " intezamiya " garam tave de utte vi beh ke vi bolan ke ae sache ne " I don't believe them. Sorry for my gulabi punjabi:)
     
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  9. Kash_Ninja

    Kash_Ninja FULL MEMBER

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    https://www.dawn.com/news/1356681

    I suggest reading this article, any Karachi people still complaining need to stop being so deluded and just accept the fact that Karachis attractiveness and local economy has simply diminished over the last two decades.
     
  10. AZ1

    AZ1 FULL MEMBER

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    I am from Karachi and would like to add but looks like already image has been set that we are false complaining about anything. OP said he observe it but he completely fail to observe that on daily basis there is huge number that come to Karachi, looking for jobs from punjab etc. On every street you will see hotel and those hotel been run by people who came from punjab or other part of pakistan and hotel is just one example of many.
     
  11. RealNapster

    RealNapster SENIOR MEMBER

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    And they are not registered in Karachi. Their NIC's still have that old "punjabi address" on it. Bhai i too live in a town that i was not raised in. I still have my village address in my CNIC. which mean's every elections I go to my village to vote.
     
  12. bacho

    bacho FULL MEMBER

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    It doesn't matter where they are registered, people are counted where they live. There is nothing to gain if you live in Karachi while your vote is registered in Multan or FATA. I'm sure if huge numbers of punjabis existed in Karachi they will let their presence felt politically.

    You can register your vote to current address. Many people don't do it but you are counted in current location so vote being registered somewhere else doesn't benefit you.
     
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  13. RealNapster

    RealNapster SENIOR MEMBER

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    Applied. Form not processed yet, Some sarkari baabo is not willing to move his as*. :)
     
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  14. AZ1

    AZ1 FULL MEMBER

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    You still left the main thing. What to do with those people coming to Karachi on daily basis? Large population needs larger funds. This is Karachi we are talking about where from barber shop to tandoor you will find people from punjab. Karachi needs to be given its full share. Although it will be useless as long as PPP is there to kill us.
     
  15. bacho

    bacho FULL MEMBER

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    If that was the case then PTI or N league will dominate Karachi and not MQM. Stop exaggerating population numbers without any proof. People are actually moving out of Karachi. If by full share you mean based on imaginary population then its not possible. If Karachi gets less then duo share then there is a case.