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Case for Nuclear Civil Defense Preparation.

Baibars_1260

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The case for preparations for surviving a nuclear attack.

"It will never happen" is not a good answer to "What if...? " It can happen, and likely will. Pakistan is in extreme danger of a preemptive nuclear strike.
The dooms day clock from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists lists Pakistan as one of the countries most likely to suffer a nuclear attack.

While our armed forces are adequately prepared for weathering a nuclear strike the civil populations and the administrations seem to be fatalistic in their approach to ensuring that at least a section of the targeted population survives a nuclear attack. In Pakistan there is little information on how the civil, fire and medical emergency institutions will be tackling a nuclear strike.
Even NGOs like the Eidhi Foundation, have given little public information on how to survive this catastrophe.

No one talks about it and there isn't a thread on PDF highlighting what Pakistanis as individuals should do in such an event.

This thread is meant to discuss how to survive a nuclear attack and its aftermath based on Cold War era preparations by the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Commonly known as " Duck and Cover" these were procedures and practices in place that was disseminated to the public at large how as individuals and communities they could survive injuries, blindness or death outside the immediate blast radius of a nuclear strike.
For the purpose of the discussions we can assume 65 kt strike on Karachi as simulated by Alex Wellerstein, a Harvard-educated historian, who specializes on the history of nuclear weapons and has a nuclear effects simulator on his website.

1611488541933.jpeg


So according to the simulation we expect about 6.4 million dead assuming the bomb is dropped in the city center ( Saddar Bazaar) and about 16 m injured.
(Note: At this point let's not deviate the thread on how Pakistan will retaliate or what damage the enemy will sustain. There is a site that discusses this: Link )
Let's first discuss the effects and then how to survive as individuals. We cannot rely on government assistance on anything whether immediate first aid, food, water, medical treatment, or long term survival. These aspects have been war gamed by Cold War adversaries,
This thread only covers the prospect of surviving the blast beyond the C zone ( PECHS, Shah Feisal , Jamshed Town )
Those in the impact and green zone ( Natha Khan Goth, Saddar etc. ) would not survive the detonation, and either be killed instantly or be so severely injured as to succumb within a few minutes to an hour after the attack.
The rest of the population would die within 12-24 hours from third degree burns, and crushed under houses. So we are leaving this section of the population from the context of the discussion.

The rest of the population will be exposed to the effects of radiation exposure, radiation fall out contamination of water and food , complete absence of utilities , medical assistance, and law and order breakdowns.
We can break up the discussion.
1. Effects of the blast and how to
protect.
2. Aftermath and long term survival.
3. Preparations for the "What if.. "
( Water, Iodine tablets etc. ).

Flash blindness:,
So the immediate danger would be flash blindness. If the attack is in the night then most people would be asleep so when the warning is sounded ( a siren or more likely on the phone) . those asleep are unlikely to witness the blast and suffer permanent or temporary blindness. The attack is more likely to come during lunch hour on a working day or immediately after Friday prayers to catch as many people outside as possible.
We naturally have a tendency to look up to the sky on a air raid warning,
This is most stupid thing to do because the attack will likely be an air burst that will blind us instantly.
In a subsequent post we can share exact zones for permanent and temporary blindness risk.

Radiation exposure:
If warned, the first thing to do is to cover as much exposed skin as possible, rolling down our sleeves, pulling a coat or jacket over our heads. If in the open turn facing away from the blast and don't ogle the mushroom cloud in the distance.
If outside and warned lie on the ground close to a wall or building. Bases of walls and buildings survive the blast and there is less chance of being crushed under debris
If inside in a college, school university, office or work place it is best to duck under a table or bench to get protection from flying glass, and debris.
(To be continued. The entire discussion cannot be condensed into one post, PDF members please contribute @PanzerKiel @Windjammer @Reichmarshal @The Eagle @Cliftonite )
@PAKISTANFOREVER @Goenitz @Capt. Karnage @Dalit
Meanwhile here is a very informative video ( 1951) by the US
Homeland Security of what to do in a nuclear attack. A Pakistani You Tuber should make one in Urdu for Pakistan.

 
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Baibars_1260

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An excellent site giving information on effects of a nuclear blast,

From: https://www.atomicarchive.com/science/effects/flash-blindness.html
@Beast @Song Hong @beijingwalker @siegecrossbow
( Would appreciate if our Chinese comrades would share their knowledge of individual civil defense.During my stint in China I found average people very aware and knowledgeable on this aspect of our lifestyles )

Simulating:

The nuclear simulator: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Flash Blindness:
Flash blindness is caused by the initial brilliant flash of light produced by the nuclear detonation. The light is received on the retina than can be tolerated, but less than is required for irreversible injury. The retina is particularly susceptible to visible and short wavelength infrared light. The result is a bleaching of visual pigment and temporary blindness. Vision is completely recovered as the pigment is regenerated.

During the daylight hours, flash blindness does not persist for more than 2 minutes, but generally lasts a few seconds. At night, when the pupil is dilated, flashblindness will last for a longer period of time.

A 1-megaton explosion can cause flash blindness at distances as great as 13 miles on a clear day, or 53 miles on a clear night. If the intensity is great enough, a permanent retinal burn will result.

Retinal injury is the most far-reaching injury effect of nuclear explosions, but it is relatively rare since the eye must be looking directly at the detonation. Retinal injury results from burns in the area of the retina where the fireball image is focused.

Nuclear Radiation
The release of radiation is a phenomenon unique to nuclear explosions. There are several kinds of radiation emitted; these types include gamma, neutron, and ionizing radiation, and are emitted not only at the time of detonation (initial radiation) but also for long periods of time afterward (residual radiation).
Initial Nuclear Radiation
Initial nuclear radiation is defined as the radiation that arrives during the first minute after an explosion, and is mostly gamma radiation and neutron radiation.
The level of initial nuclear radiation decreases rapidly with distance from the fireball to where less than one roentgen may be received five miles from ground zero. In addition, initial radiation lasts only as long as nuclear fission occurs in the fireball. Initial nuclear radiation represents about 3 percent of the total energy in a nuclear explosion.
Though people close to ground zero may receive lethal doses of radiation, they are concurrently being killed by the blast wave and thermal pulse. In typical nuclear weapons, only a relatively small proportion of deaths and injuries result from initial radiation.
Residual Nuclear Radiation
The residual radiation from a nuclear explosion is mostly from the radioactive fallout. This radiation comes from the weapon debris, fission products, and, in the case of a ground burst, radiated soil.
There are over 300 different fission products that may result from a fission reaction. Many of these are radioactive with widely differing half-lives. Some are very short, i.e., fractions of a second, while a few are long enough that the materials can be a hazard for months or years. Their principal mode of decay is by the emission of beta particles and gamma radiation.
 
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Baibars_1260

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Am "cutting and pasting" here before we move on to the protection phase :
Simulating.
A great simulator.
For the purpose of our simulation Ground Zero would be .
Coordinates : 24 49' N 67 02' E

Blast Effects
Most damage comes from the explosive blast. The shock wave of air radiates outward, producing sudden changes in air pressure that can crush objects, and high winds that can knock objects down. In general, large buildings are destroyed by the change in air pressure, while people and objects such as trees and utility poles are destroyed by the wind.

The magnitude of the blast effect is related to the height of the burst above ground level. For any given distance from the center of the explosion, there is an optimum burst height that will produce the greatest change in air pressure, called overpressure, and the greater the distance the greater the optimum burst height. As a result, a burst on the surface produces the greatest overpressure at very close ranges, but less overpressure than an air burst at somewhat longer ranges.

When a nuclear weapon is detonated on or near Earth's surface, the blast digs out a large crater. Some of the material that used in be in the crater is deposited on the rim of the crater; the rest is carried up into the air and returns to Earth as radioactive fallout. An explosion that is farther above the Earth's surface than the radius of the fireball does not dig a crater and produces negligible immediate fallout. For the most part, a nuclear blast kills people by indirect means rather than by direct pressure.

Thermal Radiation Effects
Approximately 35 percent of the energy from a nuclear explosion is an intense burst of thermal radiation, i.e., heat. The effects are similar to the effect of a two-second flash from an enormous sunlamp. Since the thermal radiation travels at roughly the speed of light, the flash of light and heat precedes the blast wave by several seconds, just as lightning is seen before thunder is heard.

The visible light will produce "flashblindness" in people who are looking in the direction of the explosion. Flashblindness can last for several minutes, after which recovery is total. If the flash is focused through the lens of the eye, a permanent retinal burn will result. At Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there were many cases of flashblindness, but only one case of retinal burn, among the survivors. On the other hand, anyone flashblinded while driving a car could easiIy cause permanent injury to himself and to others.

Skin burns result from higher intensities of light, and therefore take place closer to the point of explosion. First-degree, second-degree and third-degree burns can occur at distances of five miles away from the blast or more. Third-degree burns over 24 percent of the body, or second-degree burns over 30 percent of the body, will result in serious shock, and will probably prove fatal unless prompt, specialized medical care is available. The entire United States has facilities to treat 1,000 or 2,000 severe burn cases. A single nuclear weapon could produce more than 10,000.

The thermal radiation from a nuclear explosion can directly ignite kindling materials. In general, ignitable materials outside the house, such as leaves or newspapers, are not surrounded by enough combustible material to generate a self-sustaining fire. Fires more likely to spread are those caused by thermal radiation passing through windows to ignite beds and overstuffed furniture inside houses. Another possible source of fires, which might be more damaging in urban areas, is indirect. Blast damage to Stores, water heaters, furnaces, electrical circuits or gas lines would ignite fires where fuel is plentiful.

Direct Nuclear Radiation Effects
Direct radiation occurs at the time of the explosion. It can be very intense, but its range is limited. For large nuclear weapons, the range of intense direct radiation is less than the range of lethal blast and thermal radiation effects. However, in the case of smaller weapons, direct radiation may be the lethal effect with the greatest range. Direct radiation did substantial damage to the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Human response to ionizing radiation is subject to great scientific uncertainty and intense controversy. It seems likely that even small doses of radiation do some harm.

Fallout
Fallout radiation is received from particles that are made radioactive by the effects of the explosion, and subsequently distributed at varying distances from the site of the blast. While any nuclear explosion in the atmosphere produces some fallout, the fallout is far greater if the burst is on the surface, or at least low enough for the firebalI to touch the ground. The significant hazards come from particles scooped up from the ground and irradiated by the nuclear explosion. The radioactive particles that rise only a short distance (those in the "stem" of the familiar mushroom cloud) will fall back to earth within a matter of minutes, landing close to the center of the explosion. Such particles are unlikely to cause many deaths, because they will fall in areas where most people have already been killed. However, the radioactivity will complicate efforts at rescue or eventual reconstruction. The radioactive particles that rise higher will be carried some distance by the wind before returning to Earth, and hence the area and intensity of the fallout is strongly influenced by local weather conditions. Much of the material is simply blown downwind in a long plume. Rainfall also can have a significant influence on the ways in which radiation from smaller weapons is deposited, since rain will carry contaminated particles to the ground. The areas receiving such contaminated rainfall would become "hot spots," with greater radiation intensity than their surroundings.
 
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Baibars_1260

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More cutting and pasting:
The likely burst:


An enemy attack on Karachi would likely be a surface burst or air burst:



Types of Nuclear Explosions
ypes of Nuclear Explosions
Types of Nuclear Explosions

The destructive force associated wiht a nuclear explosion vary with the location of the point of burst in relation to the surface of the earth.
The main types are:

High Altitude Burst

Detonation above 100,000 feet. Destrutive forces do no significantly affect the ground.

Air Burst.

The fireball does not touch the ground. Detonation is below 100,000 feet.Surface BurstDetontation occurs at or slightly above the actual surface of the earth. One of the greatest results of the type of burst is the amount of radioactive debris and fallout, and the force of the blast wave.

Sub-surface

BurstDetonation occurs under ground or under water. Depth determines destructive forces on the surface.
 
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Vapour

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Excellent thread @Baibars_1260

As far as I'm aware, PA doesn't have tracking and early warning radars covering most of India, nor anywhere near the quantum of military purpose satellites required to keep an eye on IA stratetgic positions across their entire landmass and neither an ABM whatsoever. So, the public is at risk of all conventional missile and other type attacks as well as nukes.
 

Baibars_1260

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Excellent thread @Baibars_1260

As far as I'm aware, PA doesn't have tracking and early warning radars covering most of India, nor anywhere near the quantum of military purpose satellites required to keep an eye on IA stratetgic positions across their entire landmass and neither an ABM whatsoever. So, the public is at risk of all conventional missile and other type attacks as well as nukes.
Thanks for responding Vapour ,
We know the chances of detecting an impending nuclear attack is slim. The USA and USSR too had this problem in the mid 1960s and early 1970s, when a nuclear attack would almost inevitably be from a ballistic missile, even though there were bombers constantly flying and submarines in the ocean ready to deliver secondary attacks.
Neither the USSR nor the USA had complete radar coverage of each other's territory to detect a missile liftoff. But because of longer flight times and the ballistic path over Canada the USA had set up NORAD which could detect incoming missiles giving 15 to 30 minutes of warning. Later using thermal imaging mapping via satellites the USA and USSR both developed launch detection capabilities.

So far as Pakistan is concerned the enemy is likely to attempt a surface burst in clear weather ( for maximum flash blindness) the warhead in its final phase ( single or MIRV) is likely to go lower when in Pakistani airspace, and thus be detected by our ground radars. It would give us maybe 30 seconds to a minute of warning. Our allies may also be able to detect a ballistic missile launch via satellite, and warn us to give us 5-6 minutes of warning.
If we do get 5 minutes of warning we may be able to take the "duck and cover " procedures if we know what to do.

Because NATO nuclear missiles had been stationed in Europe much of the Western Russia was on a 5 minute nuclear alert. They lived with that threat and trained for it. As civilians we can't look to our government or NGOs to save us.

The entire United States has facilities to treat 1,000 or 2,000 severe burn cases. A single nuclear weapon could produce more than 10,000.
As you can see even the USA does not have enough hospital beds to treat more than 2000 severe burn cases. An attack on densely packed Karachi would produce 100,000 severe burn cases.

It is taking individual action that might save some if not most of us.
In 2019 tensions I has advised my extended family members in Karachi to move temporarily to Hub or Larkana. Staying away from packed target areas is a sure way to survive.
 

peagle

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The case for preparations for surviving a nuclear attack.

"It will never happen" is not a good answer to "What if...? " It can happen, and likely will. Pakistan is in extreme danger of a preemptive nuclear strike.
The dooms day clock from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists lists Pakistan as one of the countries most likely to suffer a nuclear attack.

While our armed forces are adequately prepared for weathering a nuclear strike the civil populations and the administrations seem to be fatalistic in their approach to ensuring that at least a section of the targeted population survives a nuclear attack. In Pakistan there is little information on how the civil, fire and medical emergency institutions will be tackling a nuclear strike.
Even NGOs like the Eidhi Foundation, have given little public information on how to survive this catastrophe.

No one talks about it and there isn't a thread on PDF highlighting what Pakistanis as individuals should do in such an event.

This thread is meant to discuss how to survive a nuclear attack and its aftermath based on Cold War era preparations by the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Commonly known as " Duck and Cover" these were procedures and practices in place that was disseminated to the public at large how as individuals and communities they could survive injuries, blindness or death outside the immediate blast radius of a nuclear strike.
For the purpose of the discussions we can assume 65 kt strike on Karachi as simulated by Alex Wellerstein, a Harvard-educated historian, who specializes on the history of nuclear weapons and has a nuclear effects simulator on his website.

View attachment 709974

So according to the simulation we expect about 6.4 million dead assuming the bomb is dropped in the city center ( Saddar Bazaar) and about 16 m injured.
(Note: At this point let's not deviate the thread on how Pakistan will retaliate or what damage the enemy will sustain. There is a site that discusses this: Link )
Let's first discuss the effects and then how to survive as individuals. We cannot rely on government assistance on anything whether immediate first aid, food, water, medical treatment, or long term survival. These aspects have been war gamed by Cold War adversaries,
This thread only covers the prospect of surviving the blast beyond the C zone ( PECHS, Shah Feisal , Jamshed Town )
Those in the impact and green zone ( Natha Khan Goth, Saddar etc. ) would not survive the detonation, and either be killed instantly or be so severely injured as to succumb within a few minutes to an hour after the attack.
The rest of the population would die within 12-24 hours from third degree burns, and crushed under houses. So we are leaving this section of the population from the context of the discussion.

The rest of the population will be exposed to the effects of radiation exposure, radiation fall out contamination of water and food , complete absence of utilities , medical assistance, and law and order breakdowns.
We can break up the discussion.
1. Effects of the blast and how to
protect.
2. Aftermath and long term survival.
3. Preparations for the "What if.. "
( Water, Iodine tablets etc. ).

Flash blindness:,
So the immediate danger would be flash blindness. If the attack is in the night then most people would be asleep so when the warning is sounded ( a siren or more likely on the phone) . those asleep are unlikely to witness the blast and suffer permanent or temporary blindness. The attack is more likely to come during lunch hour on a working day or immediately after Friday prayers to catch as many people outside as possible.
We naturally have a tendency to look up to the sky on a air raid warning,
This is most stupid thing to do because the attack will likely be an air burst that will blind us instantly.
In a subsequent post we can share exact zones for permanent and temporary blindness risk.

Radiation exposure:
If warned, the first thing to do is to cover as much exposed skin as possible, rolling down our sleeves, pulling a coat or jacket over our heads. If in the open turn facing away from the blast and don't ogle the mushroom cloud in the distance.
If outside and warned lie on the ground close to a wall or building. Bases of walls and buildings survive the blast and there is less chance of being crushed under debris
If inside in a college, school university, office or work place it is best to duck under a table or bench to get protection from flying glass, and debris.
(To be continued. The entire discussion cannot be condensed into one post, PDF members please contribute @PanzerKiel @Windjammer @Reichmarshal @The Eagle @Cliftonite )
@PAKISTANFOREVER
Meanwhile here is a very informative video ( 1951) by the US
Homeland Security of what to do in a nuclear attack. A Pakistani You Tuber should make one in Urdu for Pakistan.

Good read, but, I think in the case of South Asia, the only preparation is not to have a nuclear war.

The days of cold war, when the adversaries were far away, and there were systems set in place, there was room for some sort of warning, where the people could reach cover, if it was available.

In the case of South Asia, it is likely an India/Pakistan scenario, the distances involved means there is nothing you can do that could provide effective protection. You'd be lucky just protecting the leadership, forget about the populous.

No war, thus no nuclear war seems like the only preparation that can be done. You do that, by resolving all bilateral issues, and building peace.
 
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Baibars_1260

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So lets review how we will tackle the after effects of a nuclear blast.
@khanmubashir @Goenitz @PanzerKiel

1. Temporary Flash Blindness.
In most cases we should recover in time unless we have been careless enough to look at the sky after a warning has been sounded.
If we get a retinal burn it will depend on how severe it is and how much our vision is affected.

Note: Would invite PDF members with medical degrees to write on this.

2. Burns and Thermal shock.
There will be no facilities left functional to treat 3rd Degree burns. Minor burns can be treated at home with Silver Sulphadine and dressing. These would be needed in far more quantity than what is present in the average home first aid box. Remember that we must budget for all members of an average family of four to be burnt over exposed portions of their bodies. Children under the age of 10 would be especially vulnerable to burns as they would be wearing shorts or skirts exposing their legs and likely playing outside on a clear Friday afternoon. Luckily Silver Sulphadine is cheap and so are dressings. Catching a burn early before infection sets in is vital.

Note: Would need PDF members with medical degrees to advise.

3. Radiation Sickness.
Most of us would have been exposed to radiation unless we have been working underground in a mine (or in the hold of a ship?) , during the attack. We won't know how much radiation we have been exposed to unless we measure our environment. In the past this was difficult without an outrageously expensive laboratory grade Geiger Counter. Technology has improved We don't really know how effective these are but there are numerous low priced Geiger Counters available ( $70 average) from various manufacturers, and there is even a Geiger Counter Apps ( Android) with a probe available. In the early Cold War era DIY enthusiasts would take diode vacuum tubes ( thermionic valves) and make probes out of them by painting them with lead paint leaving a "window" for the radiation to be detected. When brought close to a radioactive source the gamma rays would affect the bias and produce
intermittent modulation causing clicks to be picked up in headphones.
It was laborious task trying to count the clicks per minute and calculate the radiation level using some mathematical formula.

( Note: PDF members with Electrical Engineering degrees, and Physics degrees please comment).
All clothes, shoes, caps, and apparel worn during the attack would have to be discarded and buried safely. Our homes would need to be meticulously scanned with a Geiger Counter to detect radio active dust and ash blown in through open windows or sucked in by air conditioning even though these would have ceased functioning due to a lack of power.

Radiation sickness will become evident through nausea and hair loss and the usual symptoms experienced by cancer patients during radiation therapy.
( Note: PDF members with medical degrees please advise)

For Cold War era anti-radiation home therapy Potassium Iodide tablets are recommended These are cheap and stock of these for the entire family is a good investment.
 
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Baibars_1260

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The best protection: Locations

At this point I would pause a little to allow PDF members to play around with the nuclear attack simulator (link below)


We simulated only for Karachi when in-fact the simulator would work for any city or small town ( Example : Sahiwal).
Estimating the likelihood of being a target in a nuclear exchange is vital.
The enemy has about 150-200 warheads of which at least 100-120 is likely to strike us in waves or batches of 25-30. This is a worst case scenario, assuming that all our retaliatory strikes are intercepted ( unlikely 🙂 ) , and the enemy continues to launch all its missiles and assets without loss. In that case multiple warheads are likely to strike major population centers , and others would be directed at command and control centers, military assets. Military assets would be hit repeatedly to ensure that retaliation is eliminated. Using the nuclear simulator and seeing our resident locations in proximity to "targets of interest" to the enemy will highlight the risk factor.
Example : As mentioned in the equation in the link below a one megaton warhead devastates within a radius of 80 miles ( 128 km ).


We don't have a list of targets the enemy has programmed . It is obvious that the enemy would not waste it's assets on a resort like Pir Ghaib in Baluchistan. Our enemy does not have tens of thousands of warheads like the adversaries in the Cold War era to saturate our territory. However being close to a cantonement, airbase, or ordinance production center is obviously a risk.

But we can't choose the locations that are safest from a nuclear attack simply on our own. Our work, professions, property, and businesses dictate where we live.

Once again, learning from the Cold War era, here us what we can do.

-We can arrange safe houses in rural areas, with the help of friends, family or rent on a one time, one event charge, to move our families out of our city locations in times of tension. Rural, farmers or even a humble peasant would welcome an additional income in a crisis. Those of us who can afford it could even invest in a remote rural property. This could be done by several families pooling their resources together. In the Cold War doomsday preppers called these safe locations "bug outs"

- A pre-emptive nuclear attack is unlikely to happen out of the blue. Limited conventional conflict and escalation would be the likely path to a nuclear holocaust, or a complete act of madness by rabidly vicious regime envisioning a "victory", Keeping a close touch on the events will warn us that we should move our families out.

- It is not just surviving the nuclear strike, but surviving the aftermath. Having a rural base to relocate to ( the " bug out " ) , after the urban environment has been irradiated, and devastated is a great prepping foresight . This could be done collectively by several families. There will be modest amounts of food, and water, and adequate shelter available. We will be living in a 19th century environment but we will survive.

( Next: Surviving the Aftermath ).
 
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arjunk

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We need easy access to the following:
  • Flashlight
  • Portable radio
  • Batteries
  • First-aid kit
  • Necessary medicines
  • Sealed food, such as canned foods, and bottled water
  • Manual can opener
  • Cash and credit cards
  • Extra clothes
They should be mass produced and available preferably in a kit form for a cheap amount of money in most shops (private or government run). They could potentially be air dropped by PAF C-130s/IL-76 though the PAF's transport planes might be completely wiped out in such a dire situation.

That should be enough to survive for weeks or a few months until foreign rescue services try to arrive (at least at Karachi since it's at the coast).

I believe a nuclear tipped ABM around major population centers is the only way to protect against a Nuclear blast.
n 2019 tensions I has advised my extended family members in Karachi to move temporarily to Hub or Larkana. Staying away from packed target areas is a sure way to survive.
There is nowhere to survive. India has 150+ nukes and enough material to build 200+. They only need 20 to target all major cities. The rest will go to areas people will try to hide in. Multiple 60kt nukes (~3) may be needed to completely destroy Karachi, so even Hub might not be safe. Currently, the wind would blow the fallout southeast, but that may not be the case all year or even all day long.
1611595161858.png


The area inside the grey ring is where physical damage will be severe, while the area inside the orange ring is where thermal damage can occur. The Western most blast is a surface blast, and therefore it spreads far more fallout:
1611595251789.png


There is also the possibility of a crappy Indian missile missing its target and hitting Hub instead of Karachi.
 

Baibars_1260

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Good read, but, I think in the case of South Asia, the only preparation is not to have a nuclear war.

The days of cold war, when the adversaries were far away, and there were systems set in place, there was room for some sort of warning, where the people could reach cover, if it was available.

In the case of South Asia, it is likely an India/Pakistan scenario, the distances involved means there is nothing you can do that could provide effective protection. You'd be lucky just protecting the leadership, forget about the populous.

No war, thus no nuclear war seems like the only preparation that can be done. You do that, by resolving all bilateral issues, and building peace.
( Am going off topic but I do owe you a response).

At this time the possibility of a
" no nuclear war" or "no war" status is remote. We will be living with the threat for a very long time.

Past enemy regimes knew,, and acknowledged the risk of severe damage from retaliatory strike. Which is why they kept their fingers off the nuclear trigger.

Unfortunately the current fascist enemy regime is driven by an Apocalyptic mindset based on obscure ancient mythology.

We are not dealing with a rational (though completely uncompromising ) enemy like the adversaries in the Cold War.
The enmity between Cold War adversaries was not cultural, religious or based on a thirst for revenge on perceived wrongs 1000 years back. The differences were on the type of economic and social world order and wealth distribution. Otherwise either side was least interested in nuking the other side.
At the height of the Cold War the US orchestras visited Moscow and the Bolshoi ballet group toured Western Capitals . There was no hatred amongst the peoples. The Soviet Union despite its Asian landmass had a European culture and the West was comfortable with this.
Unfortunately that is not the case with Pakistan's prime enemy, We are at serious risk of nuclear annihilation by a preemptive nuclear strike by an enemy that hates us for who we are.

We can't predict or stop a nuclear strike but can only retaliate.
It is even more unfortunate that the enemy is delusional enough to believe that we can't retaliate.
( Note: The Cold War adversaries were realistic. The communists also knew there was no hereafter or heaven and this was the only world there was)
But this is not unusual, for an enemy that believes Radars don't work in cloudy weather and lemons and chillies applied on a fighter jet makes them more capable.
It is therefore safe to say that a nuclear strike is very likely. We can leave the retaliation to our armed forces. As individuals we must make sure some of us survive the nuclear attack. Which is why for civilians to prepare for a nuclear strike is as important as for our armed forces to retaliate against one.
 

Baibars_1260

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We need easy access to the following:
  • Flashlight
  • Portable radio
  • Batteries
  • First-aid kit
  • Necessary medicines
  • Sealed food, such as canned foods, and bottled water
  • Manual can opener
  • Cash and credit cards
  • Extra clothes
They should be mass produced and available preferably in a kit form for a cheap amount of money in most shops (private or government run). They could potentially be air dropped by PAF C-130s/IL-76 though the PAF's transport planes might be completely wiped out in such a dire situation.

That should be enough to survive for weeks or a few months until foreign rescue services try to arrive (at least at Karachi since it's at the coast).

I believe a nuclear tipped ABM around major population centers is the only way to protect against a Nuclear blast.


There is nowhere to survive. India has 150+ nukes and enough material to build 200+. They only need 20 to target all major cities. The rest will go to areas people will try to hide in. Multiple 60kt nukes (~3) may be needed to completely destroy Karachi, so even Hub might not be safe. Currently, the wind would blow the fallout southeast, but that may not be the case all year or even all day long.
View attachment 710425

The area inside the grey ring is where physical damage will be severe, while the area inside the orange ring is where thermal damage can occur. The Western most blast is a surface blast, and therefore it spreads far more fallout:
View attachment 710426

There is also the possibility of a crappy Indian missile missing its target and hitting Hub instead of Karachi.
👍👍👍Excellent post!
Will respond in detail and I completely agree with the target assessment of the cities. There are "bug out " locations which of course would need to be planned in advance.
I disagree with PAF C-130s paradropping supplies. No large fixed wing aircraft will be able to operate even if they survive the EMP, and blast. The airbase fuel supplies and runways will be destroyed. The only aircraft surviving would be some light rotary wing aircraft and some STOL aircraft; only those located at remote civilian stations ( mountain rescue, agricultural pest control ). Some helicopters on offshore oil rigs would survive initially until the rigs are also targeted. PIA planes parked (rather stranded) at foreign destinations would survive but would have no airports to fly back to even if the foreign airports agreed to refuel these aircraft knowing that they would never be paid for the fuel, We should assume zero air assets.
As mentioned earlier we cannot expect relief from any government resource whether military or civilian.
The survival kits would need to be stocked before hand. Edhi and voluntary agencies could stock survival kits before hand.
I was intrigued by the survival kit list you made, That list is great in the case of a normal natural or manmade disaster. In a usual natural or manmade disaster aid from elsewhere would be forthcoming and the kit would help us get by. A nuclear attack would need different survival tools since we would be living in the "stone age" for a very long time, and no aid would be coming ever.

Example:
You mentioned portable radio
These would need batteries which would quickly run out and never replaced.
For those who could afford it, they would need hand cranked radios
with backup solar power.
For those who don't have the means for these expensive sets, either DIY (or from commercial kits) Crystal sets would work just as well. No power needed and the kits could be made from scrapped land line telephone earpieces and copper wire harvested from E-waste transformers. "Cat's whisker" detectors could be made from rusty razor blades, burnt out inserts from disposable "Bic" type razors.
 
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Marker

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After experiencing the effect of nuclear blast on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, discussing a contingency plan to face this catastrophe has become a taboo for the nations of the World.

Only mentally retarded leadership will opt for such action against any nation.

Nukes or WMDs are only for deterrence to avoid any full scale war.

To make this topic for general discussion the taboo should be un-tabooed.

We as a Pakistani nation has to first realize what challenges we are facing internally and externally.

What is our geopolitical and geo-economical standing? Whom can we trust or otherwise?

How far Indian leadership or any other country's leadership can go to attain their set of national goals?

Why Pakistan is important for attaining goals for others?
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In the end what will be the outcome? Will the world ready to face the nuclear catastrophe?

Unless we are not convinced, that the world being forced towards its own destruction by its very occupant - humankind, the taboo will remain taboo.
 
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peagle

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( Am going off topic but I do owe you a response).

At this time the possibility of a
" no nuclear war" or "no war" status is remote. We will be living with the threat for a very long time.

Past enemy regimes knew,, and acknowledged the risk of severe damage from retaliatory strike. Which is why they kept their fingers off the nuclear trigger.

Unfortunately the current fascist enemy regime is driven by an Apocalyptic mindset based on obscure ancient mythology.

We are not dealing with a rational (though completely uncompromising ) enemy like the adversaries in the Cold War.
The enmity between Cold War adversaries was not cultural, religious or based on a thirst for revenge on perceived wrongs 1000 years back. The differences were on the type of economic and social world order and wealth distribution. Otherwise either side was least interested in nuking the other side.
At the height of the Cold War the US orchestras visited Moscow and the Bolshoi ballet group toured Western Capitals . There was no hatred amongst the peoples. The Soviet Union despite its Asian landmass had a European culture and the West was comfortable with this.
Unfortunately that is not the case with Pakistan's prime enemy, We are at serious risk of nuclear annihilation by a preemptive nuclear strike by an enemy that hates us for who we are.

We can't predict or stop a nuclear strike but can only retaliate.
It is even more unfortunate that the enemy is delusional enough to believe that we can't retaliate.
( Note: The Cold War adversaries were realistic. The communists also knew there was no hereafter or heaven and this was the only world there was)
But this is not unusual, for an enemy that believes Radars don't work in cloudy weather and lemons and chillies applied on a fighter jet makes them more capable.
It is therefore safe to say that a nuclear strike is very likely. We can leave the retaliation to our armed forces. As individuals we must make sure some of us survive the nuclear attack. Which is why for civilians to prepare for a nuclear strike is as important as for our armed forces to retaliate against one.
I understand, and totally agree with your reasoning, and, no, it is not off-topic, because it establishes the reasons behind the need for the measures you are wanting to explore.

But, it still does not change the situation, how, what, why, when is relevant depending on your situation. In its simplest form, if you are standing on a footpath, and a bus comes towards you, you can move out of the way, if you see it coming towards you, and if it is far enough.
But, if you do not see, or if you do see the bus coming towards you, but its just a few feet away, there is not much you can do.

The same logic would apply here, we are far too close, and we do not have the necessary warning infrastructure in place. Let us assume we put one in place, still the distances are so small and the warning time from detection to detonation is so small, it makes the investments required for protection not worthwhile.

The only thing we can do, in my opinion is the very minimal, there I suppose your point has some sort of conclusion and value.
Have enough safety measures to ensure we have some sort of a society left, if such a thing was to happen. You do that by creating safety mechanisms for the essentials, that's the leadership, and talent in all spheres of life, food stocks agriculture seeds etc. And, information for the private citizens, for those who wish to take steps on their own, it may save some depending on radiation exposure.

So, I suppose there is some benefit, but its to be judged whether the efforts required for those resultant benefits are worthwhile. I still think, not. If we were at least a middle income country, then I would say yes. but we are discussing this taking into account our existing situation. Under these conditions, in my opinion, workings towards avoiding any war, is the best safety mechanism against a nuclear disaster.

There are few other examples, but certainly the Indians develop simple arguments, that get fed to a wider audience, journalist, experts and opinion makers in society, those arguments are repeated in unison and often as they can. That then gets absorbed by the populous, and that creates a national narrative, and a single solid viewpoint, to which someone unprepared does not have an answer. Its a very effective tool, most I think do not see it, the choosing of the right words, sentences and statements. it is easily missed if you not looking.

We don't do anything of the sort, although, I have only seen one example, I think it was not planned but it got picked up and used fairly widely, it is this,

The Indians developed an argument, and it was repeated constantly, that if we have a nuclear war, India is much bigger, so there will be nothing left of Pakistan, but we will still survive in some form. It is a stupid argument, but psychologically very effective, I saw many a Pakistani commentators and presenters with funny confused looks after hearing it, because they did not know what to say.

All of a sudden I started hearing a counter argument from the Pakistani side. it was,

That if we have a nuclear war you may finish us, but we'll make sure there is nothing left of you, you will be wiped off from history, but there are 50 Muslim countries, we will live on. They turned it from a nation-state argument, to a semi religious one, our identity as Pakistani may be gone but as Muslims we will live on.

This I heard repeated every time the Indian version was said. The Indians stopped saying it, in fact i have not heard it for a while, I am sure it is still alive to be used, but since the counter argument was put in the public domain, the Indians stopped using there's.

I gave the above example to highlight, the various ways, we can dominate or counter the nuclear environment, other then the practical physical things. After-all a bully is only brave if given the space to do what he wants, they can bring all the aggression they want, but if the reply is hard enough, he learns to back down.
 

Baibars_1260

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I understand, and totally agree with your reasoning, and, no, it is not off-topic, because it establishes the reasons behind the need for the measures you are wanting to explore.

But, it still does not change the situation, how, what, why, when is relevant depending on your situation. In its simplest form, if you are standing on a footpath, and a bus comes towards you, you can move out of the way, if you see it coming towards you, and if it is far enough.
But, if you do not see, or if you do see the bus coming towards you, but its just a few feet away, there is not much you can do.

The same logic would apply here, we are far too close, and we do not have the necessary warning infrastructure in place. Let us assume we put one in place, still the distances are so small and the warning time from detection to detonation is so small, it makes the investments required for protection not worthwhile.
Good post @peagle
As you have correctly pointed out we are too close to the enemy to have sufficient warning of a nuclear strike. We can neither be forewarned of, or prevent a nuclear
strike.

It is surviving the aftermath that is important. Not just Pakistan, there is no country in the world, that can protect its population in the event of a nuclear strike ( Watch the movie " The Day After...").
Even the 30 minute warning is mostly cosmetic. Ducking under the table or lying at the base of the wall won't help in a direct hit.
In any case as I said in my earlier posts much of the Western Soviet Union ( Moscow, Kiev etc.) and Eastern Europe was under a 5 minute ( or less ) nuclear alert due to Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles in Europe. So was Britain, France, Germany, Austria Belgium etc. Until the IRBM treaty was signed and the focus shifted to slower cruise missiles the population of Europe, Britain and the Soviet Union were very philosophical about the nuclear threat. They were more concerned about the aftermath. The lucky ones in a nuclear attack are the ones, who are killed in the first few seconds.

But there were always peace overtures at the worst of times, such as when Gorbachov and Reagan said that they would like to play with their grandchildren. Yuri Andropov replied to American schoolgirl Samantha Smith who asked him why he wanted to kill her. Samantha visited the Soviet Union and spent time with ordinary Soviet children at a children's camp at a resort. Soviet Air Force helicopter pilots who courageously flew over the damaged reactor in Chernobyl spewing lethal radiation and capped it dumping loads of concrete were mortally sick. Having more advanced medical facilities in the treatment of radiation exposure US hospitals opened their doors to treat these pilots. Despite the efforts of the American doctors all the pilots died. These heroic Soviet pilots were venerated by their American colleagues who gave them a military salute as their bodies were flown home.

We don't have this accommodation with our enemy. It is religious hatred which has no cure. Our enemy doesn't believe they will be harmed in a nuclear showdown with us. Just as in World War 2, Hitler never believed Berlin or any part of Germany could be bombed.

So the purpose of this thread is not to explore how to avoid a nuclear war. If we can avoid a nuclear war that would be the best thing that could happen.
- If a nuclear strike does happen those of us who survive ( if we survive) should be prepared for the aftermath.
Even in a protracted conventional
war resulting in attrition saturation bombing we as individuals must know how to prepare for it.

Simply keeping a wad of cotton in our pockets, and inserting it in our ears could prevent our eardrums from bursting and permanently deafening us in a blast. The Vietnamese learned this the hard way.
We talk so lightly about war with our enemy guests threatening this and that to each other and none of us know or care what really happens in a war.

The Cold War never turned hot for a reason. Europe had seen two World Wars. In India and Pakistan we are too focused on our smart-phones and tablets to see what real war is like. The fact that there won't be an internet or smart-phones, and we will have to go back to Ham Radios, (what is a Ham Radio? :woot: ), is lost on the crowd here.

I sometimes cynically wish there was a war so that these keyboard warriors here who write acronyms like "LMAO" ROFL, with see real blood and charred bodies, and then see if they day LMAO.
 

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