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Can Pakistan Withstand The Pressure

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by A.Rahman, Apr 8, 2006.

  1. A.Rahman

    A.Rahman ELITE MEMBER

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    CAN PAKISTAN WITHSTAND THE PRESSURE FROM US, INDIA AND ISRAEL?

    Muqtedar Khan


    This article was published in The Daily Star (Lebanon), 09.24.2003, Foreign Policy in Focus 09.24.2003, Counterpunch, 09.18.2004, Dawn (Pakistan) 09.27.2003, The Muslim Observer and The Detroit News.


    Pakistan has perhaps taken more risks than any other nation in America's war on terror. Yet it remains most insecure about its relations with Washington. In fact Pakistan's extensive and risky cooperation with the US has done little to alleviate its own security dilemmas. Pakistan, even today remains exposed to the dangers of preemptive strikes from America's other close allies in the war on terror, India and Israel. Even from the US, Pakistan is not fully assured.

    Washington seems to maintain a complex strategy of coercive diplomacy combined with economic assistance towards Pakistan which rewards it economically for its cooperation but does not reduce its geopolitical threats. In a strange way Pakistan in spite of being a close ally of the world's most dominant power continues to live in a Hobbesian world.
    Insecurity can lead nations to monumental irrationality. Notice how a heightened sense of vulnerability after September 11 attacks has led American foreign policy from one monumental blunder to another. As Pakistanis, especially the Islamists are made to feel that their nation is being bullied into working against its own interests and its own people and faith, their anger, resentment and fear is increasing.

    At seminar after seminar on South Asian security and on the war on terror, I hear Pakistanis expresses deep concern, confusion and suspicions about Washington's policies and in particular the emergence of a new anti-Pakistan axis --- US, Israel and India. Pakistan essentially identifies three dangers to its national security and they are:


    1. A conventional strike by India from the Kashmir border or a strategic strike by India against Pakistan's nuclear facilities.


    2. A preemptive strike by Israel at Pakistan's nuclear facilities with India's direct assistance or by using India as a base.

    3. A preemptive strike by the US against Pakistan's nuclear facilities to prevent them from becoming available to Islamists who could easily come to power in Pakistan.



    Every nightmare scenario for Pakistan involves a threat to their nuclear capability form either one or all of the three states who are currently working very closely --- India, Israel and the US. All three of these nations now identify "Islamic terrorism" as the main threat to their own security and their ultimate nightmare involves Jihadis armed with nukes. Pakistan's nuclear weapons, sought primarily for defense against a conventionally superior India, seem to have increased the possibility of Pakistan becoming a victim of attacks from more powerful nations far and near, rather than making it more secure. Perhaps there is a lesson in this for Iran.

    The question however that Washington needs to address is a more complex one and needs more subtle geopolitical analysis than Washington has been indulging in lately. Can the world in general and India, Israel and the US in particular afford to make a nuclear armed nation feel confused and insecure about its relations with them? Pakistan's defense strategy is based on a "first strike policy". Very simple this means that when in danger the Pakistanis will trigger the nukes. Keep in mind that this is the policy of secular, rational generals and not some crazy Mullahs.

    We do not have to wait for Pakistani nukes to fall in to the hands of Taliban types before we see them lighting the sky. All we need to do is scare the present administration sufficiently. Nothing can be scarier for the present military establishment in Pakistan than the threat to their nuclear weapons. Is Washington scaring the Pakistanis? Yes it is. But things have not reached dangerous levels, but who knows what the threshold level of Pakistan is? How much pressure can it handle?

    Washington continues to insinuate that Pakistan has been sharing its nuclear secrets with Iran and North Korea. Washington also continues to express its fears about the stability of Pakistan's command and control structure and the possibility of their nukes falling in the hands of militant Muslims. Despite Pakistan's repeated reassurances on both counts, Washington continues to maintain its doubts.
    Every time Indians meet with Israelis, the conversation is the same. Israelis ask, "What can you do for us?" And Indians ask "What are you going to do about Pakistan?" So far Israel has not expressed much concern over Pakistani nukes; it is more worried about the Iranian nuclear program. But the growing Indo-Israeli military and intelligence cooperation and the Indo-American military exercises in Kashmir are definitely raising the fear barometer in Islamabad.

    The US must understand that it cannot enhance its own security by making others feel insecure. While it works to keep Taliban types out of power and out of range of the nuclear buttons in Pakistan it must also work to reduce the stress and uncertainty in the minds of those who now already have their fingers on the nuclear buttons in Islamabad. Washington can take the following concrete steps to allay mutual fears. (While the neocons may not understand the word "mutual", I am sure Ms. Rice or General Powell can decode it for them).

    1. Washington can use the war on terror to develop a semi-formal regional security institution involving US, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Starting with the basic limited goal, that is in the interest of all four nations, of keeping the Taliban types out of power in South-West Asia and maintaining regional stability, the US could reduce tensions and allay fears. This setup may also come in handy as a forum for future Indo-Pak peace process and for resolving the Kashmir issue through regional summits.

    2. The US continues to guarantee Israeli security. It must use this guarantee to keep Israel from destabilizing other regions in pursuit of real or imagined threats. An institutional American security interest in South-West Asia will also help to reduce Israeli fears about Pakistani nukes.

    3. Finally the US must learn that it cannot have an instrumentalist approach to other nations. It cannot force Pakistan to take risks with its domestic and international balances of power in US interests without the US also taking steps to ensure that Pakistan is not over exposed to strategic threats. A disregard for Pakistani domestic politics gave the Islamist parties a historically unprecedented victory in the last elections a contributing to current fears in Washington, Tel Aviv and New Delhi.
    Before the nukes are triggered, Washington must learn to nurture its allies while nudging them to towards safer policies and pro-American postures.


     
  2. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

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    this article shares some concern which has been quite visibkle for the past few years.

    u shud never push your enemey however weak he is to the corner...:embarassed:
     
  3. A.Rahman

    A.Rahman ELITE MEMBER

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    please explain, I dont get it ( maybe i m a lill bit sleepy)
     
  4. Munir

    Munir PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Israel and US must stop acting like the bully. They have their own internal problems. Even if we take human rights into consideration then the Palestinians aren't exactly treated normal and what about Guantanomo or thos secret US flights all over the world? At the same time Pakistan and other nations should develop better economy. If people have bread and property they do not have time to hate others. They can talk with other side and understand principles of US or Israel or even others... As long as people stay poor they have no clue why they vote for the next corrupt politician nor do they understand why the west is not happy with people that burn flags.

    But the chance of US willing to start another war is limited. Pakistan moved towards a nation with better control and prosperity bit is is not already entering democracy. Do add to that democracy isn't the best system (there is probably no good system). And where some nations voted democraticly for change of regime the US tends to manipulate the arena (Hamas). We should look into democracy and make it better and not manipulate.
     
  5. sword9

    sword9 PROFESSIONAL

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    I would'nt bet on that assumption. For the US to retain its economic superiority, it is essential for the oil prices to be high, and it will do everything in its power to keep up those prices. The reason is that if the current growing economies of China and India may negate the dollar value, so if oil prices go up this will effect the growth rate of these two and other economically growing nations.

    I am no economics genius but this what global media sources indicate.
     
  6. Munir

    Munir PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    It is very nice for the military producers and those that earn lots of cash with high oil prices but if you do look into the debth of the US then you might find out that it is all sponsored by foreign cash (bonds). They can go on like Germany did on ww2 but one day they have to face the results.

    High prices means for the largest consumer that it will slow down economy. It will not slow down other economies at higher rate then the US economy.

    They have not much military reserves left. Where will they find another coalition this time? Israel is moving towards new borders and Hamas will settle probably the deal. Good.
     
  7. tahirkhely

    tahirkhely FULL MEMBER

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    I pray for that time to come because we know how capable israelis and americans are. and about indians we dont know may be another Kargil is needed.
    by the way my advice to Israel is that they should not kill palestinians. Allah Naraz hotay hain. And Also to US that they should come out of Iraq and Afganistan immediately. Time is Fast approaching.
     
  8. miroslav

    miroslav BANNED

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    Yeah. I missed the last one.

    My advise to the muslim world is they should become more patient. There is no such dispute that cannot be solved on the table by talks.

    Mullah's should stop declaring Jihad every now on then for small issues. Osama should not plan terrerist attacks all over the world. Jawahiri should not ask pakistani's to throw away Musharraf.

    Miro
     
  9. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

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    If a situation like that ever arises......then the 3 stooges will infact be giving birth to the Islamic SuperPower stretching from Morroco to Indonesia. As an initiation Party...... Pakistani supplied Nukes shall be exploded in each Moslem state to begin what will be a Joint defense alliance on the lines of NATO. Libyan/Arab Money, Pakistani/Turkish/Egyptian military forces ,Central Asian resources and malaysian/Indonesian manpower. Thus....the Birth of a Nuclear Armed Islamic Empire.....united under one god, one prophet and one holy book.

    China and Russia will welcome it ;)
     
  10. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

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    Howman y countries are there btw morocco and Pakistan,,,do u have that many nukes, and if u have i f u blast one each then u wont have any more when US comes knocking!!!

    And tell us who will rule it....???
     
  11. sigatoka

    sigatoka SENIOR MEMBER

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    U.S. is a net Oil importer, in fact the largest importer of Oil. Why on Earth would they want Oil prices to be high?
     
  12. sword9

    sword9 PROFESSIONAL

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    So that other growing economies do not catch upwith it and the value of the dollar remains high.
     
  13. RAPTOR

    RAPTOR FULL MEMBER

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    theyre already pumping the hell out of iraqi oil wells and shipping it all to the strategic reserves . Haliburton wants to drill for oil in Pristine Alaska which is thought to contain more oil than all of the middle east combined.
     
  14. Bull

    Bull ELITE MEMBER

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    who kaes moremoney when oil prices are high?

    saudis,kuwaitiss...!!! no its america and europe.

    there is 500bn $ USd in Europe invested by kuwaitis alone.where does all the money that saudi earns goes,it goes ot US and europe remember the 40Bn $ Ac purchase plan of saudis.

    imagine the amount of money US oil companies are making due to this high oil prices..

    On the other hand emerging countries like India and China will have to struggle more to catch up.
     
  15. tahirkhely

    tahirkhely FULL MEMBER

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    Bull, its not persinal. i m serious . tell me whether u r muslim or not
    then i will tell u some thing that u will never understand. i m serious dont be skeptic.