• Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Beyond LAC logjam, it’s time to start India-Pakistan-China dialogue

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by خره مينه لګته وي, Jun 28, 2020.

  1. خره مينه لګته وي

    خره مينه لګته وي FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,574
    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2014
    Ratings:
    +0 / 1,971 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Pakistan
    June 4, 2020, 12:49 pm IST Sudheendra Kulkarni in Voices | India, politics, World | TOI


    At the predictable risk of being branded as an “anti-national” by BJP supporters, I am compelled by the latest eruption of tension between India and China over our unresolved boundary dispute to affirm two inescapable truths. One, without India-Pakistan-China dialogue and cooperation, India cannot resolve the longstanding issues with its two large neighbours. Two, without peaceful and good-neighbourly relations with China and Pakistan, neither India nor the rest of South Asia can rise to their full potential of prosperity, progress and greatness.

    These truths are self-evident. Yet, they will be snubbed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s supporters, whose conception of nationalism is premised, internally, on hatred towards Muslims, and, externally, on projecting Pakistan and China as our arch enemies. In a polarised society, such jingoism may yield electoral dividends to the BJP. However, it cannot help the PM smoothly manage India’s relations with Beijing and Islamabad, as has become recurrently evident during his six years in office. Much less can he succeed in finding lasting solutions to the border disputes that have beleaguered these two ties almost since India’s independence. A great leader is one who changes the course of history. Apply this test to Modi, and it appears that, despite his massive parliamentary mandate, he will have little transformative gains to show on these two principal challenges to his foreign policy.

    Until recently, we — and also the rest of the world — viewed India’s problems with Pakistan over Kashmir and India’s border row with China as two separate, largely unconnected, challenges. We can no longer do so after China’s recent muscle-flexing along the frequently contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, where it occupies 38,000 sq km of territory in Aksai Chin that India claims as its own. Neither Modi’s government nor his supporters should feign surprise at this grave development. After all, if there was any doubt that the dispute over Jammu & Kashmir involved not just two nations, India and Pakistan, but also a third power, China, it was removed by the government itself on 5 August last year. Its sudden decision to change the constitutional status of J&K state, and the state’s bifurcation into two union territories, has had the unintended consequence of further solidifying China-Pakistan alliance, which will make it impossible for India to determine the future of Kashmir and Ladakh as per its wishes.

    Can India take P*k (Azad J&k) and Aksai Chin back? No.

    When Modi abrogated Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, his jubilant supporters claimed that this bold decision would put an end, once and for all, to the Kashmir problem both in its internal and external dimensions. Influential official voices, obviously with the PM’s approval, asserted that getting Pakistan's Kashmir and China-oc**pied Aksai Chin were India’s next objectives.

    General Bipin Rawat, then army chief and now the chief of defence staff, said, “The next agenda is retrieving P*K Kashmir
    (which includes ‘Azad Kashmir’, Gilgit-Baltistan and the 7000-sq-km Shaksgam Valley Pakistan ceded to China in 1963) and making it a part of India.”

    External affairs minister Dr S Jaishankar said,We expect one day to have physical jurisdiction over Azad Kashmir.”

    Home Minister Amit Shah
    went a step further and declared in Parliament, “When I talk about Jammu and Kashmir, Azad Kashmir and Aksai Chin are included in it… We will give our lives for this region”.

    No PM should make, or allow his colleagues to make, claims the nation cannot deliver. Can India ever get Azad Kashmir back from Pakistan, or Aksai Chin back from China? The answer to these questions, though obvious, was made unmistakable by the developments triggered by the Modi government’s August 5 decision.

    First, China rejected India’s claims on Aksai Chin by stating that New Delhi had “hurt Chinese sovereignty” by “unilaterally” altering J&K’s status. It further averred that India’s new law was “not acceptable and won’t in any sense be binding.” Now, by making its newest incursion into an undefined LAC, which is neither delineated on maps nor demarcated on the ground, China is in effect saying it does not accept even India’s perception of the 3,488-km-long LAC as “binding”.

    Next, China sent an unmissable message about its resolve to side with Pakistan on P*K Kashmir. Within five days of the Modi government’s new move on J&K, Beijing announced: “China will continue to firmly support Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and continue to preside over justice for Pakistan on the international stage.”

    It’s not difficult to decode the meaning of these words: should India ever attempt to “retrieve” Azad Kashmir militarily, China will be there to give Pakistan its “firm support”.

    A nation that chooses to delude itself pays a heavy price for its delusions. For too long, successive Indian governments — Modi’s is by no means an exception here — have been misleading our people into believing that India must, and India can, make all of pre-1947 J&K its own. This stance is weakening India. With government-backed sections of the media acting as drum-beaters, it has fuelled sentiments of ultra-nationalism, which is long on rhetoric and woefully short on realism. Poof? The “Boycott Chinese goods” campaign, and Sonam Wangchuk’s ludicrous claim that Beijing can be brought to its knees by the Indian army responding with “bullets”, and Indian people doing the same with their “wallets”. Furthermore, anti-Pak and anti-China jingoism has made the task difficult for Modi himself. Despite his popularity, he looks incapable of convincing people that compromises would be necessary for a permanent resolution of the disputes with India’s two important neighbours.

    The stand-off on LAC has already revealed these weaknesses within the government. For instance, contrast Amit Shah’s bravado on Aksai Chin with the reconciliatory statement by defence minister Rajnath Singh, who indicated India’s clear preference to de-escalate tension with China through diplomatic efforts. Seeking to downplay the gravity of the situation in Ladakh, Singh said both India and China have “perceptional differences” with respect to the LAC. When India is unwilling, because it is unable, to stop Beijing’s frequent LAC violations, can we ever foresee our military seizing all of Aksai Chin and also the Shaksgam Valley after an armed confrontation with China? Similarly, can India fight, and win, a two-front war in that region, which would surely be the case if the Modi government attempted to wrest P*K Kashmir from Pakistan?

    Why Modi should welcome India-China-Pak dialogue

    mooted by Xi Jinping

    Five lessons emerge from the foregoing analysis.

    One, if any external power, or an alliance of powers, wages a war on us, India must fight back with all its might, as befits any sovereign and self-respecting nation. However, should India set goals whose fulfilment makes unwinnable wars inevitable?

    Two, it is in India’s own vital long-term interest that she attaches high priority to resolving the boundary dispute with China. Keeping the LAC ambiguous is making India a bigger loser than China. The current stand-off in Ladakh may end through parleys. But what will India gain by having to face future flashpoints along the LAC?

    Three, both India and China must honestly examine the factors that are breeding, and sustaining, mutual distrust. Many Indians rightly believe that China, because of its heightened economic and military strength, does not sufficiently respect India’s core concerns. The Chinese leadership must take necessary steps to change this belief. On our part, India must acknowledge the futility of, and step back from, strategically aligning with the USA to contain China’s rise. Mutual distrust can be replaced by mutually beneficial cooperation if our two great nations, instead of playing the perilous power games of the West, choose to be guided by the wisdom of our civilisations.

    Four, the Modi government’s insistence on resuming Kashmir-related dialogue with Pakistan only on the condition that the latter give P*K Kashmir back is as fruitless as Islamabad’s belief that the Indian side of Kashmir will someday become either independent or join Pakistan. Happily, there are winds of positive change in Pakistan now. Both the civilian establishment represented by Prime Minister Imran Khan, and the military establishment led by its powerful army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, have realised that making peace with India, based on an honourable solution to the Kashmir question, is in Pakistan’s own vital interest. The two establishments have also broadly understood that Pakistan must abandon the dangerous and self-hurting policy of aiding kashmiri Separatists to achieve its foreign policy objectives. Now, here is a question that India’s own political and ruling establishment must answer: If it’s okay for India to tell Beijing that it is ready for “a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable” (read: compromise-based) solution to the boundary question with China, why shouldn’t we convey the same message to Pakistan with regard to Kashmir? Why does the Indian establishment, which rightly affirms that India is not a pushover vis-à-vis China, continue to believe that Pakistan is a pushover vis-à-vis India? Moreover, isn’t it obvious that, by resolving the Kashmir issue with Pakistan, India (and Pakistan, too) will emerge stronger in dealing with China?

    Finally, Modi must continue his strategic dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping even more vigorously. (The two leaders have met more than a dozen times and also held two informal summits at Wuhan and Mahabalipuram.) In doing so, Modi should welcome a potentially game-changing idea proposed by Xi. During their informal summit in Mahabalipuram in October last, the Chinese president proposed to our PM, “a trilateral partnership” among China, Pakistan and India, “free from the influence of third parties” — an indirect reference to Washington. Xi underscored that “the Chinese side sincerely expects sound China-India relations, China-Pakistan relations and India-Pakistan relations, and expects to see all sides work together to promote regional peace and stability and achieve common development and prosperity.”

    This proposal was revealed by none other than China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, while briefing the Chinese media that came to India to cover the summit. We do not know how the Modi responded to Xi’s tantalising offer. But all those Indians who keenly wish for a resurgent India to take her rightful place in the global community in the 21st century — which requires it to be freed from the shackles of debilitating disputes inherited from the 20th century — have a right to suggest to our prime minister: “Modi ji, why not give Xi Jinping’s idea a try? And why not, making good use of a peaceful neighbourhood, concentrate on accelerating India’s inclusive and all-round development?”
    .
    .
    .
    DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Source Times Of India
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 5
  2. Silverblaze

    Silverblaze FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,963
    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2012
    Ratings:
    +3 / 2,159 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Pakistan
    Hindu points of view should go straight to the garbage.

    Conflict is inevitable now. China will defend itself. US will goad india to attack China. Pakistan should take complete advantage if they are not too busy deciding if OBL was a shaheed or not.
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 3
  3. Vapnope

    Vapnope SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    2,875
    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2015
    Ratings:
    +14 / 4,087 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Pakistan
    A notable Indian twitter handle claimed in 2019 that India would take AJK by March 2020. He/she was so sure that he asked his followers to save this tweet. So i am not sure what happened in March this year..
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 2
  4. waz

    waz SENIOR MODERATOR

    Messages:
    15,046
    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2006
    Ratings:
    +63 / 36,987 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    No dialogue no nothing. Pakistan and China should carry on.
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 9
  5. Ali_Baba

    Ali_Baba FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,278
    Joined:
    May 27, 2018
    Ratings:
    +1 / 1,663 / -0
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    India is exposed currently, on its two war strategy, but at the same time, China is exposed to India right now. China has not invested in her airbase infrastrcture facing India, and that comprimises China quite alot right now, maybe it is enough to be game changer to stop both Pakistani and Chinese plans for this part of the world.

    I do hope, China sees the error of her ways, and looks to rectify this situation. You only have to look at the map to see how bad, China is both tactically and strategically as far as the air picture goes. China has not planned well in this regard.

    It may well be, what saves India ...
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 1
  6. Cliftonite

    Cliftonite BANNED

    Messages:
    1,579
    Joined:
    May 4, 2020
    Ratings:
    +2 / 3,000 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Pakistan
    Thanks but no thanks. India is a metastic cancer that will only spread. It has to be eliminated.


    But my dear, you forgot one very pertinent point. China's population is not anywhere near the Indian border. Tibet and Xinjiang are both sparsely populated. What damage can Indian air force do to the barren wastelands of Tibet?

    Also China has bases in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, quite strategic places if you ask me. It can do much damage to India if it wants
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 3
  7. masterchief_mirza

    masterchief_mirza SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    5,734
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2019
    Ratings:
    +13 / 11,602 / -1
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    No, no, no NO!!!!

    Darwin would be spinning in his grave if mankind offered such an evolutionary deviant and honorary clown college graduate Modi any kind of opportunity to avert the inevitable natural selection event that is heading his way.
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 6
  8. Dalit

    Dalit ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    9,344
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2012
    Ratings:
    +2 / 14,994 / -17
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Netherlands
    All wishful thinking. War is inevitable.
     
  9. Longhorn

    Longhorn FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    1,633
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2019
    Ratings:
    +1 / 2,389 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Typical PDF response from both sides.
    Not one post discussing the actual merits or otherwise of the very sensible and relevant arguments presented in the article.
     
  10. khansaheeb

    khansaheeb ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    8,018
    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2008
    Ratings:
    +3 / 9,110 / -1
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    You cannot reason with Nazis, they understand only one thing and that is defeat.
     
  11. Thumboor

    Thumboor FULL MEMBER

    Messages:
    125
    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Ratings:
    +0 / 151 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Not really anything to gain in this for Pakistan?
    - low trade volume with India.
    - lack of people to people contact.
    - no political interest in this 'solution' by all parties.

    Only solution now would be to hold the UN mandated plebiscite. Not likely, hence the situation will be resolved through war or the status quo will remain.
     
  12. scorpionx

    scorpionx SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    6,450
    Joined:
    May 12, 2012
    Ratings:
    +92 / 14,689 / -1
    Country:
    India
    Location:
    India
    Napoleon Bonaparte once said, " when small men attempt great enterprises, they always end up by reducing them to the level of their mediocrity". This exactly happened with Narendra Modi's foreign policy. When you compromise your long term strategic interest for your short term gain in domestic politics, you are sleepwalking into disaster. Unlike any of his political predecessors, Modi's men reminded me the American arrogance during the republican government of the 90's. With no relation with ground situation, spokesmen ignored the famous Bismarkian wisdom, " Be polite; write diplomatically; even in a declaration of war one observes the rules of politeness." Men in BJP hardly posseses that kind of sensible diplomatic maturity.

    As the situation is now, today; backing out or shying off is a political disaster for Modi. When you said there is no incursions, even 'Pappu' will tear you apart with facts on grounds. Modi has to accept- India lacks not only in effective military preparedness but it has horrible black holes in its strategic thinking. The entire thought pattern in Military planning, exependiture efficiency needs a thorough overhaul. Spend the next ten/fifteen years to build a decent military industry, self sufficient for your needs. People have already caught your bluff several times. They may not be generous next time.
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 1
  13. El Sidd

    El Sidd ELITE MEMBER

    Messages:
    52,390
    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2017
    Ratings:
    +21 / 43,354 / -12
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    Canada
    India routinely belittle Pakistan for offering peace initiative.

    No government in Pakistan will sit and negotiate peace with the Nazis.
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 1
  14. jamal18

    jamal18 SENIOR MEMBER

    Messages:
    2,259
    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Ratings:
    +1 / 2,243 / -0
    Country:
    Pakistan
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Pakistan has gone from wanting Kashmir as part of Pakistan, to accepting an 'independent' Kashmir. It can go no further. No resolution of kashmir dispute, no normalization with India.