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BD forecast to be fastest growing large developing economy by IMF till 2026

Indos

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I am quite optimist that Indonesian GDP growth will be at least 6 % 2023 forward inshaAllah, unlike what is projected by IMF at its recent projection.

I have heard that Gupta, IMF Chief Economist, presentation few days ago. Asian Chief Economist is also an Indian. She even doesnt mention about energy crisis and only said supply bottle neck, higher commodities that can push inflation up across many nations.

As nation that has many coal production and reserve where domestic industry and utilities will get cheaper price than market price, just compared 70 USD per ton of coal in Indonesia and more than 200 USD per ton coal must be paid in international market. I believe it is the situation where investors will start to regard highly countries that has better shield in term of energy crisis that will likely last quite long, due to transition process from fossil energy into more sustainable one.

This is why I regard highly market assessment as they are the ones who doesnt have vested interest in doing the projection. So far Rupiah, Indonesian currency shows strong position and it shows market confidence in our economy.


Anyway thanks @UKBengali for posting the data
 

Indos

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What is basically done by IMF is just bringing back the previous trend that happen during the normal period for the last 5 years that ended in 2019. Where for India case they have optimist projection since India was slowing during that period into 4-5 % growth per year.

This energy crisis doesnt even become their main consideration and they think this problem will be gone next year forever, where for me I think it will likely stay for possibly next 6 - 8 years since oil and gas companies will split their investment fund from being concentrated on fossil fuel drilling and exploration and its supplies infrastructures ( oil tankers, refinery, etc) into sustainable energy investment in solar and others. The gap between this and the demand that make the energy crisis that we are currently happening.

I dont say next year we are going the same level of energy crisis experience by Europe, India, China, and also several countries, but the supply will likely be tight and this will reduce the previous inventories of fossil fuel, this situation that IMO will make investors think that putting the investment in the country that can secure their energy demand will bring more certainty in their business planning. The degree of importance on this aspect will be greater, that will eventually effect their investment planning, this is what I am thinking

Even Singapore also has faced similar problem as well


And the 5 % projection during "normal" period for Indonesia doesnt also consider some structural reform that have been made by Indonesia which is Omnibus Law. The law is passed in early 2021 and the implementation is started around September this year. This factor is not there during previous period where Indonesia posted 5-5.7 % economic growth since around 2013-2019.

The implementation of the law in Indonesia is expected to make the level of ease of doing business in the country getting greater inshaAllah as projected by many economist and investment bankers around the world, including institution like World Bank and Fitch Rating.

Those combination of factors that make me optimist my country can still post economic growth at least 6 % in 2024-2026 period, following similar projection in 2023 by IMF inshaAllah
 
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UKBengali

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I am quite optimist that Indonesian GDP growth will be at least 6 % 2023 forward inshaAllah, unlike what is projected by IMF at its recent projection.

I have heard that Gupta, IMF Chief Economist, presentation few days ago. Asian Chief Economist is also an Indian. She even doesnt mention about energy crisis and only said supply bottle neck, higher commodities that can push inflation up across many nations.

As nation that has many coal production and reserve where domestic industry and utilities will get cheaper price than market price, just compared 70 USD per ton of coal in Indonesia and more than 200 USD per ton coal must be paid in international market. I believe it is the situation where investors will start to regard highly countries that has better shield in term of energy crisis that will likely last quite long, due to transition process from fossil energy into more sustainable one.

This is why I regard highly market assessment as they are the ones who doesnt have vested interest in doing the projection. So far Rupiah, Indonesian currency shows strong position and it shows market confidence in our economy.


Anyway thanks @UKBengali for posting the data


Well 5-6% growth for Indonesia is quite good as you are twice as rich per capita than BD.

BD's growth while on the surface looks fantastic should not be that surprising as it is coming from a very low base - $6, 000 US dollars per capita GDP PPP compared to 13,000 for Indonesia.

As long as Indonesia can maintain this rate for the next 2 decades then it will start approaching high-income level.
 

Protest_again

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exact 7.2% for all years? This is the projection GOB gives to IMF. So take it with a handful of salt.
 

TOTUU

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With the further development of developing countries, the share of developed countries in Europe and the United States in the world economy is rapidly decreasing. This change will make the world more equal, and the days of developed countries plundering developing countries by virtue of their first-mover advantage will come to an end.

Hopefully, as the economic power and military strength of developing countries rise, they can take back the power of speech and media from the West. The West is now using these powers to gain too much political, economic and technological advantage.

The media in various countries are filled with Western views, and we don't see the views of developing countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Africa, Iran, Turkey, China, etc. in our own countries. It seems like only the West exists in this world.

It's really sad, I can hardly find a voice from Bangladesh in China, even by search engines, and the same thing happens in all developing countries. Developing countries understand each other by western descriptions, not by developing countries' self descriptions.

I use this piece of music to represent this mood

 

Bilal9

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With the further development of developing countries, the share of developed countries in Europe and the United States in the world economy is rapidly decreasing. This change will make the world more equal, and the days of developed countries plundering developing countries by virtue of their first-mover advantage will come to an end.

Hopefully, as the economic power and military strength of developing countries rise, they can take back the power of speech and media from the West. The West is now using these powers to gain too much political, economic and technological advantage.

The media in various countries are filled with Western views, and we don't see the views of developing countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Africa, Iran, Turkey, China, etc. in our own countries. It seems like only the West exists in this world.

It's really sad, I can hardly find a voice from Bangladesh in China, even by search engines, and the same thing happens in all developing countries. Developing countries understand each other by western descriptions, not by developing countries' self descriptions.

I use this piece of music to represent this mood

is that an Erhu?

It makes such wonderful emotional notes...masterful performance....

On topic - many media outlets in Bangladesh are infiltrated by Indian media influencers. Because of cultural similarity - this has always been easy to do.

But there are counter trends in Bangladesh happening, we can see it already.

Western/Indian media influence will decrease with time and cultural ties and bonds between Chinese and Bangladeshi people will deepen.

Indian media influence will fade faster than Western influence, because of how people are currently educated in English medium schools. Higher class and business leaders are all educated in Western Universities, especially in the US.

Many young folks are however studying Mandarin and going to study in Chinese universities.
 
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Wood

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Congrats, Bangladesh! It is even better to find an India friendly gov. in Bangladesh is predicted to achieve success :-)
 

Bilal9

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Who is she? What's her trackrecord?
Born in Kolkata, in a literate educated family, track record is liberal, despite being Indian. She is not a BJP fan though BJP is interested in changing her mind.

She received her Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University, a B.A. from Lady Sri Ram College, and M.A. degrees from the Delhi School of Economics and the University of Washington. Teaches at Harvard, and is on leave to be Chief Economist to the IMF.

 
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bluesky

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What is basically done by IMF is just bringing back the previous trend that happen during the normal period for the last 5 years that ended in 2019. Where for India case they have optimist projection since India was slowing during that period into 4-5 % growth per year.

This energy crisis doesnt even become their main consideration and they think this problem will be gone next year forever, where for me I think it will likely stay for possibly next 6 - 8 years since oil and gas companies will split their investment fund from being concentrated on fossil fuel drilling and exploration and its supplies infrastructures ( oil tankers, refinery, etc) into sustainable energy investment in solar and others. The gap between this and the demand that make the energy crisis that we are currently happening.

I dont say next year we are going the same level of energy crisis experience by Europe, India, China, and also several countries, but the supply will likely be tight and this will reduce the previous inventories of fossil fuel, this situation that IMO will make investors think that putting the investment in the country that can secure their energy demand will bring more certainty in their business planning. The degree of importance on this aspect will be greater, that will eventually effect their investment planning, this is what I am thinking

Even Singapore also has faced similar problem as well


And the 5 % projection during "normal" period for Indonesia doesnt also consider some structural reform that have been made by Indonesia which is Omnibus Law. The law is passed in early 2021 and the implementation is started around September this year. This factor is not there during previous period where Indonesia posted 5-5.7 % economic growth since around 2013-2019.

The implementation of the law in Indonesia is expected to make the level of ease of doing business in the country getting greater inshaAllah as projected by many economist and investment bankers around the world, including institution like World Bank and Fitch Rating.

Those combination of factors that make me optimist my country can still post economic growth at least 6 % in 2024-2026 period, following similar projection in 2023 by IMF inshaAllah
Whatever you say about IMF projections, our @UKBengali jumps at whatever IMF says for the BD future. He thinks IMF writes economics Bibles all the time.

Yes, this kind of colorful projection will continue until the day when BD fails to pay back the international loans with interest.
 

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