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Bangladesh to see 6.8pc growth this year: ADB

Black_cats

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Bangladesh to see 6.8pc growth this year: ADB

ECONOMY
TBS Report
15 September, 2020, 10:10 am
Last modified: 15 September, 2020, 11:13 am



The report also forecasts 0.7 percent negative growth for the economies across developing Asia, the first negative economic growth since the early 1960s
Photo: Collected
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Photo: Collected

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has predicted a 6.8 percent growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Bangladesh for the current fiscal year (FY-21).

The government set a target to achieve 8.2 percent of growth, and the projection of the ADB is 1.4 percentage points lower than the budgetary target of the government.

The ADB identified the projected growth as a reflection of gradual recovery, supported by a strong manufacturing base and strengthening of development in export destinations.

The forecast has come from an update of the ADB's flagship report titled "Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020," published on September 15 from the head office of the ADB.


'Developing Asia' to shrink for first time in nearly six decades: ADB


The report also forecasts 0.7 percent negative growth for the economies across developing Asia, the first negative economic growth since the early 1960s.

The report projected a 6.8 percent growth in the next year, as the region starts to emerge from the economic devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report projected 1.8 percent growth for the economy of China in this year and 9 percent negative growth for India.

China will recover with 7.7 percent growth in the next year while India will recover with 8 percent growth.

The report expected the rate of inflation to moderate to 5.5 in Bangladesh and the current account deficit to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP in the current fiscal.

Prudent macroeconomic management and speedy implementation of the government stimulus measures are key imperatives to ensure the projected recovery, said the report.

The ADB identified a prolonged pandemic in Bangladesh or its export destinations as significant challenges for the growth projection.
"Bangladesh's economy has started recovering from the pandemic. Despite significant pressure on the health and pandemic management systems, the government has managed the economy well with appropriate economic stimulus and social protection measures, ensuring basic services and commodities for the poor and vulnerable," said Manmohan Parkash, ADB country director in Bangladesh.

He also added that recent economic performance in exports and remittances, and the government's macroeconomic management, including securing foreign funds for economic stimulus and social protection, have made this recovery feasible.

"We are encouraged by the increase in exports and remittances, and hope the recovery will be sustained, which will help in achieving the projected growth rate," said the country director.

"Early access to vaccine and continued emphasis on health pandemic management can help sustain this recovery," he added. "This crisis is an opportunity to undertake further reforms in resource mobilization, export diversification, employment generation, skills development, as well as social protection, and ADB is working with the government in these areas to provide further support."

The report also said the government's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected to boost public and private investment in the current fiscal year.

The central bank's expansionary and accommodative monetary policy is expected to aid the projected growth while keeping inflation contained. Vital remittances will stimulate private consumption.

The South Asia subregion is expected to shrink by 6.8 percent in 2020 due to the negative growth of the Indian economy, and the area is also expected to rebound by 7.1 percent in 2021, said the report.

 

idune

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GDP growth rate now a political number: CPD

CPD casts doubt on BBS growth data for the last year saying it was politically motivated


Photo: Collected



The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Sunday said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has become just a number mismatched with the reality.
The think-tank said there is no scope for using the number except for political purposes as the figures are being generated through old, inconsistent and incomplete data.
In a virtual media briefing, the CPD claimed that the provisional data used by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) to estimate a 5.24 percent GDP growth in the 2019-20 fiscal year does not reflect the latest economic reality amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The civil society organisation said the economy had been experiencing a slump even before the outbreak of Covid-19, while it registered a negative growth in the last three months of the FY2019-20 due to the pandemic.

Against this backdrop, it seems impossible that the overall growth rate would cross 2.5 percent in the last year, according to the CPD.

CPD Senior Research Fellow Dr Towfiqul Islam Khan presented the keynote paper at the programme elaborating on how BBS data differ widely from the economic reality.
Quantum index of industrial production (QIIP) for large and medium manufacturing industries dropped 24.5 percent until last April, while exports dipped 51.2 percent in the April-June period. Only 76.8 percent implementation of Annual Development Programme (ADP) also dragged down the year-on-year spending, the CPD economist explained.
"Therefore, the provisional GDP growth estimate of the BBS is not realistic," he said.


How can growth in pandemic time be same?

He further said the data of private sector credit growth, import of capital machinery, revenue collection and operating expenditure of the government also do not support the estimated growth.
"For many countries, GDP has shrunk substantially. Pakistan in FY20 is likely to register (-) 0.4% GDP growth. The economy of Vietnam in the January-June period of this year was able to grow by only 1.81 percent," he added.
"In view of the above, even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY2020, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world," said Tawfiq.
Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the CPD, said a 5 percent growth requires the economy to grow over 11 percent in previous nine months if it is assumed that 90 percent economic activities continued in the fourth quarter, which is not realistic.
"What changes the economy underwent suddenly that investment rose even during the pandemic? And why the growth slowed then even with the heightened investments?" he said.
He added that the government would not require to announce the virus stimulus if investment in industrial sectors and production did not dropped.
He did not subscribe to the explanation that the BBS estimate was based on data for nine months till March before the pandemic struck with full force.
"The BBS compared the growth figures with those of the previous years. They did not say that they calculated the July-March figures. If they did they could have an exit route," Prof Mustafizur Rahman said, hoping that the BBS might review its estimate in October calculation when the final figures will be available.
CPD Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun said the BBS report prepared on provisional and inconsistent data does not reflect the coronavirus crisis. Formulating policies for poverty alleviation, minimising inequality and generating employment are not possible if an accurate GDP growth rate remains unavailable.
"Such estimates can send a wrong signal and hinder foreign assistance," she commented.
She said the foreign development partners would reduce their assistance for the country if the government presents manipulated growth rates and gives an impression that the economy is doing well defying the pandemic.
Bangladesh deserves more support from the IMF, but the agency has provided less as the government has anticipated a lower impact of Covid-19 on the economy, she pointed out.
Dr Fahmida said growth rate has become merely a number which is used for political purposes.
She said the growth rate seems to have just turned into some numbers with political sensitivity to be used as yardsticks for success.
"The growth numbers have become a fascination for policymakers, which are being used with political motives. These have become political numbers now," Dr Fahmida said.
But GDP growth is not just a number, she noted, adding the figure will not deliver anything if the poverty and inequality rates do not fall and jobs are not created.
CPD Research Director Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said poverty rate would not have gone up, as evident in many surveys on Covid-19 impacts on livelihood, if per capita income actually rose as claimed by the BBS.
The government would not require to come up with cash incentives, relief and extra allocation in social safeties either, he pointed out.
"And if the investment remained intact defying the virus fallout the government would not have to declare employment and investment-friendly stimulus packages," he added.
Is the BBS figure based on nine months' data?
The BBS disclosed provisional GDP growth numbers for the last fiscal through its website without mentioning the period of data used to formulate the report, but the officials said the report was prepared with data for the first nine months.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman said at the press briefing the BBS would prepare the growth report with the data for nine months if they did it in May, as it usually does. "Since they disclosed the figures in August, we assume they calculated 12 months' data," he added.
As the report has no reflection of the Covid period, it would not be sufficient to prepare any programme, project or policy to recover the economy from the Covi-19 shocks.
BBS report is based on old data
More than half of the provisional GDP estimate is not based on credible real time data, said Towfiqul in his presentation.
He said other than industrial, construction and crop sectors, GDP estimates for majority of sectors do not consider real time credible data as there are areas where no surveys took place in a decade or so.
The provisional GDP growth estimate, which did not capture the impacts of Covid-19 and provide a reliable assessment about the actual health of the economy, would not help to formulate any effective policy to tackle the detrimental impacts of the pandemic, Dr Towfiqul observed in his presentation.
Why the stimulus and cash support?
Dr Mustafizur Rahman raised a question about the rationality of announcing stimulus packages worth Tk1,03,000 crore to create an investment-friendly environment if the investment truly increased.
The BBS report has claimed that investments from both the public and private sectors increased in FY2020 compared to the previous fiscal.
Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said the BBS claimed the per capita income has increased but the government is providing cash and food support for the people considering a sharp increase in the number of poor people.
"Income of the people increased but the number of poor people also increased. How?" asked Moazzem, referring to the BBS data.
Is Bangladesh outlier?
The CPD referred to shrinking growth forecasts in most of countries due to adverse impact of Covid-19.
Towfiqul Islam Khan said, almost all countries, including the UK, USA and Singapore, have experienced deceleration, in varying degrees, in terms of growth performance.
He also said the GDP of Pakistan is likely register a negative growth of 0.4 percent in FY2020.
GDP growth for the economy of Vietnam during Jan-Jun of 2020 was able to grow by only 1.81 percent, he said, adding the GDP of India for the April-June quarter is anticipated to register a significant contraction.
Then what would be actual growth rate?
The CPD earlier projected a 2.5 percent growth for the last fiscal year and the think-tank still sticks to its previous projection.
Towfiqul Islam Khan said even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY20, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman said the health of all indicators but remittance was weak before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Covid-19 has destroyed all of the indicators, the growth figure of 5.24 percent estimated by the BBS is, therefore, unrealistic, he said.
It would be very difficult to achieve even 2.5 percent of growth, he added.
 

The Ronin

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Bangladesh's economy is showing a sign of early recovery and its gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2021 fiscal year, the latest Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says.

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update was released on Tuesday.

The growth reflects gradual recovery, supported by a strong manufacturing base and strengthening of growth in export destinations. Inflation is expected to remain moderate to 5.5% and current account deficit to narrow to 1.1% of GDP in FY2021, an ADB news release said.

ADB said prudent macroeconomic management and speedy implementation of government's stimulus measures are key imperatives to ensure the projected recovery but noted that the main risk to this growth projection is a prolonged coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in Bangladesh or its export destinations.

"Bangladesh economy has started recovering from the pandemic. Despite significant pressure on the health and pandemic management systems, the government has managed the economy well with appropriate economic stimulus and social protection measures, ensuring basic services and commodities for the poor and vulnerable," said Country Director Manmohan Parkash.

'Crisis an opportunity'

He said the recent economic performance in exports and remittances, and government's macroeconomic management including securing foreign funds for economic stimulus and social protection have made this recovery feasible.

"We're encouraged by the increase in exports and remittances, and hope the recovery will be sustained, which will help in achieving the projected growth rate," Parkash said, adding that early access to vaccine and continued emphasis on health pandemic management can help sustain this recovery.

"This crisis is an opportunity to undertake further reforms in resource mobilisation, export diversification, employment generation, skills development, as well as social protection; and ADB is working with the government in these areas to provide further support."

ADB has already provided initial assistance of $600 million in loans and $4.4 million in grants for managing socioeconomic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and supporting quick recovery. ADB has programmed $5.9 billion firm and $5.2 billion standby assistance for Bangladesh in 2021-2023.

In FY2021, the government's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected to boost public and private investment. The central bank's expansionary and accommodative monetary policy is expected to aid the projected growth while keeping inflation contained. Strong remittances will stimulate private consumption, ADB said.

Inflation is expected to stay at 5.5% in FY2021, reflecting a good crop outlook and favourable international commodity prices. Consumer caution and underutilized production capacity should mitigate any upward pressure on prices from the government's fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.

 

DalalErMaNodi

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GDP growth rate now a political number: CPD

CPD casts doubt on BBS growth data for the last year saying it was politically motivated


Photo: Collected



The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Sunday said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has become just a number mismatched with the reality.
The think-tank said there is no scope for using the number except for political purposes as the figures are being generated through old, inconsistent and incomplete data.
In a virtual media briefing, the CPD claimed that the provisional data used by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) to estimate a 5.24 percent GDP growth in the 2019-20 fiscal year does not reflect the latest economic reality amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The civil society organisation said the economy had been experiencing a slump even before the outbreak of Covid-19, while it registered a negative growth in the last three months of the FY2019-20 due to the pandemic.

Against this backdrop, it seems impossible that the overall growth rate would cross 2.5 percent in the last year, according to the CPD.

CPD Senior Research Fellow Dr Towfiqul Islam Khan presented the keynote paper at the programme elaborating on how BBS data differ widely from the economic reality.
Quantum index of industrial production (QIIP) for large and medium manufacturing industries dropped 24.5 percent until last April, while exports dipped 51.2 percent in the April-June period. Only 76.8 percent implementation of Annual Development Programme (ADP) also dragged down the year-on-year spending, the CPD economist explained.
"Therefore, the provisional GDP growth estimate of the BBS is not realistic," he said.


How can growth in pandemic time be same?

He further said the data of private sector credit growth, import of capital machinery, revenue collection and operating expenditure of the government also do not support the estimated growth.
"For many countries, GDP has shrunk substantially. Pakistan in FY20 is likely to register (-) 0.4% GDP growth. The economy of Vietnam in the January-June period of this year was able to grow by only 1.81 percent," he added.
"In view of the above, even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY2020, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world," said Tawfiq.
Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the CPD, said a 5 percent growth requires the economy to grow over 11 percent in previous nine months if it is assumed that 90 percent economic activities continued in the fourth quarter, which is not realistic.
"What changes the economy underwent suddenly that investment rose even during the pandemic? And why the growth slowed then even with the heightened investments?" he said.
He added that the government would not require to announce the virus stimulus if investment in industrial sectors and production did not dropped.
He did not subscribe to the explanation that the BBS estimate was based on data for nine months till March before the pandemic struck with full force.
"The BBS compared the growth figures with those of the previous years. They did not say that they calculated the July-March figures. If they did they could have an exit route," Prof Mustafizur Rahman said, hoping that the BBS might review its estimate in October calculation when the final figures will be available.
CPD Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun said the BBS report prepared on provisional and inconsistent data does not reflect the coronavirus crisis. Formulating policies for poverty alleviation, minimising inequality and generating employment are not possible if an accurate GDP growth rate remains unavailable.
"Such estimates can send a wrong signal and hinder foreign assistance," she commented.
She said the foreign development partners would reduce their assistance for the country if the government presents manipulated growth rates and gives an impression that the economy is doing well defying the pandemic.
Bangladesh deserves more support from the IMF, but the agency has provided less as the government has anticipated a lower impact of Covid-19 on the economy, she pointed out.
Dr Fahmida said growth rate has become merely a number which is used for political purposes.
She said the growth rate seems to have just turned into some numbers with political sensitivity to be used as yardsticks for success.
"The growth numbers have become a fascination for policymakers, which are being used with political motives. These have become political numbers now," Dr Fahmida said.
But GDP growth is not just a number, she noted, adding the figure will not deliver anything if the poverty and inequality rates do not fall and jobs are not created.
CPD Research Director Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said poverty rate would not have gone up, as evident in many surveys on Covid-19 impacts on livelihood, if per capita income actually rose as claimed by the BBS.
The government would not require to come up with cash incentives, relief and extra allocation in social safeties either, he pointed out.
"And if the investment remained intact defying the virus fallout the government would not have to declare employment and investment-friendly stimulus packages," he added.
Is the BBS figure based on nine months' data?
The BBS disclosed provisional GDP growth numbers for the last fiscal through its website without mentioning the period of data used to formulate the report, but the officials said the report was prepared with data for the first nine months.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman said at the press briefing the BBS would prepare the growth report with the data for nine months if they did it in May, as it usually does. "Since they disclosed the figures in August, we assume they calculated 12 months' data," he added.
As the report has no reflection of the Covid period, it would not be sufficient to prepare any programme, project or policy to recover the economy from the Covi-19 shocks.
BBS report is based on old data
More than half of the provisional GDP estimate is not based on credible real time data, said Towfiqul in his presentation.
He said other than industrial, construction and crop sectors, GDP estimates for majority of sectors do not consider real time credible data as there are areas where no surveys took place in a decade or so.
The provisional GDP growth estimate, which did not capture the impacts of Covid-19 and provide a reliable assessment about the actual health of the economy, would not help to formulate any effective policy to tackle the detrimental impacts of the pandemic, Dr Towfiqul observed in his presentation.
Why the stimulus and cash support?
Dr Mustafizur Rahman raised a question about the rationality of announcing stimulus packages worth Tk1,03,000 crore to create an investment-friendly environment if the investment truly increased.
The BBS report has claimed that investments from both the public and private sectors increased in FY2020 compared to the previous fiscal.
Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem said the BBS claimed the per capita income has increased but the government is providing cash and food support for the people considering a sharp increase in the number of poor people.
"Income of the people increased but the number of poor people also increased. How?" asked Moazzem, referring to the BBS data.
Is Bangladesh outlier?
The CPD referred to shrinking growth forecasts in most of countries due to adverse impact of Covid-19.
Towfiqul Islam Khan said, almost all countries, including the UK, USA and Singapore, have experienced deceleration, in varying degrees, in terms of growth performance.
He also said the GDP of Pakistan is likely register a negative growth of 0.4 percent in FY2020.
GDP growth for the economy of Vietnam during Jan-Jun of 2020 was able to grow by only 1.81 percent, he said, adding the GDP of India for the April-June quarter is anticipated to register a significant contraction.
Then what would be actual growth rate?
The CPD earlier projected a 2.5 percent growth for the last fiscal year and the think-tank still sticks to its previous projection.
Towfiqul Islam Khan said even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.5 percent in FY20, it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman said the health of all indicators but remittance was weak before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Covid-19 has destroyed all of the indicators, the growth figure of 5.24 percent estimated by the BBS is, therefore, unrealistic, he said.
It would be very difficult to achieve even 2.5 percent of growth, he added.

This is last month's news and relating to the financial that has passed not the current one, if you don't understand, then don't spam crap everywhere someone posts something positive.


Utterly ridiculous behaviour, now report this post too.


A sour crybaby cum propagator of lies is all you'll ever be.


20200914_182430.gif


@Atlas @Bilal9 @Bengal71 look this pathetic behaviour.
 

Atlas

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This is last month's news and relating to the financial that has passed not the current one, if you don't understand, then don't spam crap everywhere someone posts something positive.


Utterly ridiculous behaviour, now report this post too.


A sour crybaby cum propagator of lies is all you'll ever be.


View attachment 670011

@Atlas @Bilal9 @Bengal71 look this pathetic behaviour.
Let this @idune guy provide some entertainment in our boring life . Why you are upset ? I always enjoy his entertaining posts. :lol:
 

DalalErMaNodi

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Let this @idune guy provide some entertainment in our boring life . Why you are upset ? I always enjoy his entertaining posts. :lol:

To the rest of us, he's a joke but think about how he is portraying Bangladesh to others on here.


Utterly childish behaviour from someone who is most definitely a grown adult, pathetic.


By the way, I made that gif, just for his posts like this one above, feel free to use it, if you need to. :partay:
 

idune

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CPD projects only 2.5% GDP growth for Bangladesh, lowest in 25 years




ILLUSTRATION: RUMMAN R KALAM

Star Online Report

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has said today that Bangladesh's GDP growth will be no more than 2.5 percent this fiscal year, and that poverty will soar by 35 percent.
CPD made these projections under an "optimistic scenario", saying that this is the best case of the country's economic growth given that no further nationwide shutdowns are put in place to restrict the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the previous fiscal year, Bangladesh saw GDP growth of 8.15 percent -- an all-time high -- and riding on the back of record growth figures from 2016 onwards.
Previously, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) had all predicted GDP growth of less than 4 percent for Bangladesh, with EIU going the lowest with 1.6 percent and IMF being the most optimistic, with a 3.8 percent GDP growth projected.
If the GDP growth does come down to 2.5 percent as per CPD's projections, it will be the lowest figure in 25 years in Bangladesh according to Bangladesh Bank data, since 1994 saw 4.1 percent growth.

 

DalalErMaNodi

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CPD projects only 2.5% GDP growth for Bangladesh, lowest in 25 years




ILLUSTRATION: RUMMAN R KALAM

Star Online Report

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has said today that Bangladesh's GDP growth will be no more than 2.5 percent this fiscal year, and that poverty will soar by 35 percent.
CPD made these projections under an "optimistic scenario", saying that this is the best case of the country's economic growth given that no further nationwide shutdowns are put in place to restrict the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the previous fiscal year, Bangladesh saw GDP growth of 8.15 percent -- an all-time high -- and riding on the back of record growth figures from 2016 onwards.
Previously, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) had all predicted GDP growth of less than 4 percent for Bangladesh, with EIU going the lowest with 1.6 percent and IMF being the most optimistic, with a 3.8 percent GDP growth projected.
If the GDP growth does come down to 2.5 percent as per CPD's projections, it will be the lowest figure in 25 years in Bangladesh according to Bangladesh Bank data, since 1994 saw 4.1 percent growth.


This is from June and relating to previous financial year, is everything all right upstairs ?


Get yourself checked.
 

idune

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Regime does not have enough money to pay already inflated salary of regime employees. They are using fund allocated for other emergency to pay regime employees.

Regime already desperate for fund, raided autonomous corporations to scrape funds.

Finance minister does not even know where projected development fund will come from.

Around 200K expatriate workers came back already and more on the way; meaning severe hit on remittance.

Other than daily eating and breathing, almost all other growth related works are stalled or moving in snail pace.

From where regime (and its propaganda howlers) will pull the growth rabbit from? It is not even coming from behind (with empty stomach).
 

Bengal71

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This is last month's news and relating to the financial that has passed not the current one, if you don't understand, then don't spam crap everywhere someone posts something positive.


Utterly ridiculous behaviour, now report this post too.


A sour crybaby cum propagator of lies is all you'll ever be.


View attachment 670011

@Atlas @Bilal9 @Bengal71 look this pathetic behaviour.
I like the 'pathetic behavior' in the video. BD police are pure bred bastards, they deserve faaaar worse.
 

DalalErMaNodi

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I like the 'pathetic behavior' in the video. BD police are pure bred bastards, they deserve faaaar worse.

Not talking about the gif, look at the pathetic behaviour being displayed, posting irrelevant, months old news to discredit the positive predictions made by ADB.
 

Indos

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Whatever the CPD and you say, ADB is certainly not a political party in Bangladesh allied to BAl or BNP. Or, is it so?
To check whether which one claim is true, we can use tax data, if the economy is still growing quite significantly at 6 % rate so the tax collection will likely to increase quite significant as well.
 

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