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Bengal71

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My take is that Hasina does not really see defence as important but she is not strictly saying no to BAF and other branches buying expensive cutting-edge hardware like fighters and frigates. The reason they are not doing so is that the leadership of these branches are corrupt and/or incompetents who are more interested in lining their own pockets than upgrading BD military capability.

My opinion is the opposite in this case. BD is not Pakistan, in BD the military does not control the government but the government controls the military. It is the job of the civilian leadership who need to have a vision of what kind of defensive capability they want and for what reason to defend against what threat. Then they need to give the job to the millitary leadership, the military leadership will then devise a plan and work out what procurement are required. The civilain government will then work with the military to create plans, schedules and financial allocations to it's ability to realize the goals.

It should not be like, military tells the government what they want and then they approve the budget. It should be the other way around, the government must tell the military what they want (high level objective, not technical) and military will work out the technical staff, send proposals and ask for money.

In our case it is a total failure of our government, they have no ability to understand the need for defense. I explained the reasons in an earlier post as I understand it.
 

UKBengali

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My opinion is the opposite in this case. BD is not Pakistan, in BD the military does not control the government but the government controls the military. It is the job of the civilian leadership who need to have a vision of what kind of defensive capability they want and for what reason to defend against what threat. Then they need to give the job to the millitary leadership, the military leadership will then devise a plan and work out what procurement are required. The civilain government will then work with the military to create plans, schedules and financial allocations to it's ability to realize the goals.

It should not be like, military tells the government what they want and then they approve the budget. It should be the other way around, the government must tell the military what they want (high level objective, not technical) and military will work out the technical staff, send proposals and ask for money.

In our case it is a total failure of our government, they have no ability to understand the need for defense. I explained the reasons in an earlier post as I understand it.



I think we are making two separate points here.

Yes there is no vision or guidance from the government for sure - who would have thought after the 2017 bitch-slapping that BD got, that in 2022 that BAF would not now at least be the equal of the MAF, if not better.

BA seems to have a vision and is upgrading itself fairly well and MA is not closing the gap with it.

BAF is just getting further and further behind from MAF as they start inducting more and more JF-17s.

Now the worrying thing is that MN is constructing a 4000-4500 tonne frigate with 32-cell VLS that would carry the latest Chinese sensors and missiles. In one stroke the MN could be almost on a par with BN once this frigate comes into service(~2025).

If BD is not careful it may have a MN and MAF that could hold its sea trade hostage by the end of this decade. With Myanmar the normal rules of international relations simply do not apply.

The case of BA shows that it is possible with the right leadership for a branch to progress and modernise itself under a coherent plan without firm direction from government.
 
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Bengal71

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I think we are making two separate points here.

Yes there is no vision or guidance from the government for sure - who would have though after the 2017 bitch-slapping that BD got, that in 2022 that BAF would not now at least be the equal of the MAF, if not better.

BA seems to have a vision and is upgrading itself fairly well and MA is not closing the gap with it.

BAF is just getting further and further behind from MAF as they start inducting more and more JF-17s.

Now the worrying thing is that MN is constructing a 4000-4500 tonne frigate with 32-cell VLS that would carry the latest Chinese sensors and missiles. In one stroke the MN could be almost on a par with BN once this frigate comes into service(~2025).

If BD is not careful it may have a MN and MAF that could hold its sea trade hostage by the end of this decade. With Myanmar the normal rules of international relations simply do not apply.

The case of BA shows that it is possible with the right leadership for a branch to progress and modernise itself under a coherent plan without firm direction from government.

The case of BA is an example of adding the cart in front of the horse. The BA issue clearly demonstrates what I have been discussing with you.

See with democratic governance, the governance needs to be top-down. The government needs to have vision of what they want to achieve. They need to devise a vision in layman's term such as "BD must have the ability to defend against Burmese military aggression" or "BD must have the ability to per-emptively strike Burma to disable it's ability to attack BD". Once these visions are agreed upon and formalized, it needs to be given to the militray. The military must then translate it into techinical matters such as raising 2 more corps, buying frigates or missiles or jets or x or y or z. It will then present it to the government what is required to realize the vision/goal of achieving "BD must have the ability to defend against Burmese military aggression". The government will then look into it and work out a timeline/schedule for procurement in view of the finances available, if something is not achievable because of lack of finances or something else the military needs to go back to the drawing board to come up with alternatives that is within our means. And so on...

With BAF doing nothing, BN doing nothing, BA doing something clearly demonstrates that the situation is not top-down, it's not even bottom-up as is the case with Pakistan. It's a case of whimsically doing whatever without planning, goals or vision.

On the other hand in the development front the government is showing good planning and vision. The power generation, infra, SEZs etc are well planned, there is simply no plan, vision or goal for defense.
 

UKBengali

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On the other hand in the development front the government is showing good planning and vision. The power generation, infra, SEZs etc are well planned, there is simply no plan, vision or goal for defense.



I simply have no idea what is going on with BAF as I would not be surprised if there is not even a single squadron of 4+ gen fighters being ordered before 2025 now, I think that with BN there is at least a vision that has been publicly laid out in 2017 and we will see within the next 1-2 years a partner being finally selected for the 6 next-gen frigate programme.

Don't expect the first two frigates to come into service before the latter part of this decade now and the final one before circa 2035.

With BA superior, BN regaining lost superiority as MN simply won't have the funds to keep up, then the nightmare scenario of BD sea lanes of communication being held hostage to unpredicatable Myanmar will never come to pass.

It will work out in the end but no thanks to the government who have totally neglected defence since they came into power 14 years ago.
 
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Bengal71

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I simply have no idea what is going on with BAF as I would not be surprised if there is not even a single squadron of 4+ gen fighters being ordered before 2025 now, I think that with BN there is at least a vision that has been publicly laid out in 2017 and we will see within the next 1-2 years a partner being finally selected for the 6 next-gen frigate programme.

Don't expect the first two frigates to come into service before the latter part of this decade now and the final one before circa 2035.

With BA superior, BN regaining lost superiority as MN simply won't have the funds to keep up, then the nightmare scenario of BD sea lanes of communication being held hostage to unpredicatable Myanmar will never come to pass.

It will work out in the end but not thanks to the government who have totally neglected defence since they came into power 14 years ago.

With the problems you are describing such as BAF doing nothing, BN doing nothing but BA doing something, the answer to the root cause of the problem is found in what you are describing.

The BA MUST NOT have a vision. The BAF or BN MUST NOT have a vision. It is the government that MUST HAVE the vision which then be handed over to the military to run with and milestones set for them and the government periodically checking which milestones they achieved and which did not and why not.

The root cause of the problem is the vision is not originating from where it must originate from. It's like children without a father or mother without guidance, one becomes pious and the other becomes a gunda.
 

UKBengali

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With the problems you are describing such as BAF doing nothing, BN doing nothing but BA doing something, the answer to the root cause of the problem is found in what you are describing.

The BA MUST NOT have a vision. The BAF or BN MUST NOT have a vision. It is the government that MUST HAVE the vision which then be handed over to the military to run with and milestones set for them and the government periodically checking which milestones they achieved and which did not and why not.

The root cause of the problem is the vision is not originating from where it must originate from. It's like children without a father or mother without guidance, one becomes pious and the other becomes a gunda.



Unfortunately that is just the way it is with current AL Hasina leadership.

As long as the next-gen frigate programme gets back on track then like I say BD will probably be ok.

BN will have to rely on its frigates to protect itself both from MN and MAF air-strikes as BAF will be useless.

Forget about building up any deterrence with India now and just be happy if BD military can keep up with Myanmar as that would be the best that we can hope for.
 

Bengal71

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Unfortunately that is just the way it is with current AL Hasina leadership.

As long as the next-gen frigate programme gets back on track then like I say BD will probably be ok.

BN will have to rely on its frigates to protect itself both from MN and MAF air-strikes as BAF will be useless.

Forget about building up any deterrence with India now and just be happy if BD military can keep up with Myanmar as that would be the best that we can hope for.

Even if equipment is procured somehow it will not mean we will have achieved deterrance. Defense is much more than procuring equipment. Logistics, supply, economics, politics and many other issues need to be dealt with. I can assure you none of that will be dealt with by half-assed effort by a government that does not understand defense.
 

UKBengali

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Even if equipment is procured somehow it will not mean we will have achieved deterrance. Defense is much more than procuring equipment. Logistics, supply, economics, politics and many other issues need to be dealt with. I can assure you none of that will be dealt with by half-assed effort by a government that does not understand defense.


Yes but better to have the kit available than not at all if there is a crisis situation.
 

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