• Thursday, April 26, 2018

Bangladesh GDP 286 billion USD, Per capita 1,733 USD in 2018.

Discussion in 'Bangladesh Defence Forum' started by Homo Sapiens, Apr 18, 2018.

  1. Homo Sapiens

    Homo Sapiens SENIOR MEMBER

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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2018
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  2. Neptune_

    Neptune_ FULL MEMBER

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    Wow, shinning Bangladesh, incredible Bangladesh. :p:
     
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  3. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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    BD is now like the former Asian "Tiger" economies.

    Long may this super-growth continue.
     
  4. Pakistani Aircraft

    Pakistani Aircraft FULL MEMBER

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    Wrong. Bangladesh's Nominal GDP will be $286 billion by the end of 2018. However, by the end of 2017, it's $261 billion.
     
  5. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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    I find it funny how IMF predicts exactly 7% growth for BD from 2018-2023:lol:

    Sure that this year growth will be nearer 8%, and 8-9% average in the next decade.
     
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  6. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri ELITE MEMBER

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    No its not haha. Nowhere near the amount of quality investment or solid diversification into actual manufacturing...even at their early levels. Forget even the basic statistical +banking +bureaucrat aptitude difference for time being.

    What can they really do? It's a threshold GDDS country, no consistent quality data on the fundamentals are produced. Onus is on BD to change that (and qualify as better* GDDS and then SDDS).

    *ability to appear on The Economist's weekly appendix being one measure of this

    The curve fitting it affords is why Harvard projects your base growth as low as 4%, WB around 6% and BBS launders its inflation to try push the BAL groupthink propaganda at whatever number is most apt for the feelz (7, 8 or 9% or whatever fits the narrative within buffer of no-care by everyone else). IMF simply takes a feelz average in return and watches for when you actually become a credible country so it can care more about it:

    https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/wb-doubts-7-65pc-gdp-growth-estimate.552983/#post-10403712

    [​IMG]

    There is now a growing and growing reason why BD is so slow/reluctant in changing its base year (because of the big deflationary multiplier that will decrease the level in crucial parts of the "growth" sectors, similar to why Pakistan also postponed the exercise many years back when certain industries showed shrinking/stagnancy that was projected otherwise), combined with continuing to do zilch on its banking sector (that really a lot of the SDDS quality input would otherwise come from).

    Examples:

    2016:

    http://www.daily-sun.com/post/158821/Economy-to-look-good-in-the-new-GDP-base-year-count

    But the BBS officials are not confident about availability of credible data especially household information for this immediate past fiscal and preferred another ‘stable’ period of 2010-11 as new base year.

    When asked about concern on credible data, World Bank’s lead economist at Dhaka, Zahid Hussain said, ‘New statistics of household income and expenditure is being gathered now and will take time finalize.’ The government should collect data as much as possible from different sources before revising the base year to calculate GDP, he added.


    Today's reality dawning on some:

    https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

    There is some disquiet among economists about the quality of data provided by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). No less a person than the Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister has expressed his dissatisfaction about the qualifications of the BBS staff and the quality of their work. These are very long standing problems, and yet, very little has been done to improve the quality of the services provided by BBS.

    Household income: behind the rosy facade

    In stark contrast, according to HIES2016, each person at the household level actually received an income (household income divided by household size) that was 2 percent less than what they had received in 2010 and the real spending for consumption of each decreased by about 1 percent.

    The changes in per capita income and consumption that can be gleaned from the national accounts data are thus opposite to the information provided by HIES2016. The differences between the HIES and the national accounts data are rather too large to be ignored as statistical errors or due to different methods of calculation.

    Note that there was no large discrepancy for the period 2005 to 2010. The HIES2016 data clearly indicates that the household sector comprising the entire population has missed out entirely on the growth dividend of the period 2010 to 2016 that should have normally been accrued to them. The share of government revenue in national income also did not increase during this period.

    Where did the benefits of economic growth disappear? The Planning Ministry (which oversees BBS) owes an explanation to the nation about the sources of this anomalous finding.


    =============

    So yeah just like the doyal guy is now royally crushed from his earlier bold feelz prediction that ICP will give a big ole PPP multiplier upgrade to BD by now....similar thing will happen in following years regarding this BAL-miracle complex of "massive base update" etc etc that you and others push blindly for the feelz.....already on shaky foundation of GDDS that is not going to really change either. Because you don't want a GDP level shrink (esp in key parts of the BBS growth projectioneering), not without doing even further damage to what that will do to such things as the denominators used to handle debt and investment trends. Just keep the delusion buffer for your internal consumption as much as you can afford to, its fine. Getting to an actual world reference standard and doing the difficult reforms (both tied to each other) seems to not be your thing.

    @Joe Shearer @Gibbs @Ashes @bluesky @Mage
     
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  7. bluesky

    bluesky SENIOR MEMBER

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    IMF is IMF. Here, a stupid guy like you without a fundamental knowledge of national economics, are predicting something with no base. You are here foretelling things that only an economics expert can possibly do.
     
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  8. SorryNotSorry

    SorryNotSorry FULL MEMBER

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    Sleeping pill/sleeping aid sales went up 9% in BD since you made this post. Coincidence? I think not.
     
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  9. Skies

    Skies SENIOR MEMBER

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    Arbitrary statement.

    It means at 8%, the GDP worth of 1 usd will be 2.15 usd by next 10 years!

    Thats 115% increase or more than double in value.

    So basically, their claim is, by next 10 years, BAL will double the total GDP of BD.

    It also implies that the export might be doubled because of double service/production capacity by 10 years.

    If the production doubles, the job creation should be doubled also. But go to the biggest job portal (bdjobs.com) in BD. In last 5 years, I did not see any significant increase in number of job circular.

    There are only few job offers for 170 million people, and most of them are for sales and marketing.

    http://www.bdjobs.com

    upload_2018-4-18_2-4-11.png
     

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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2018
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  10. TopCat

    TopCat ELITE MEMBER

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    In 3 years BD will be the 2nd largest economy in south asia.
     
  11. Mage

    Mage SENIOR MEMBER

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    Double????It's terrible if it only doubles in 10 years.

    In 2008, BD GDP reached 91 Billion. Here we are in 2018, talking about 286 Billion.
    It tripled in 10 years..And the growth rate of next decade has to be higher than this decade. If Bangladesh can grow 8-9% on average yearly in next ten years, like @UKBengali , BD GDP will reach A Trillion by 2028.

    However his predictions are rather optimistic. I think 7-7.5% annual growth rate in average is more likely. But even by this BD should reach a trillion by 2030. Although that's by USD value of 2030 which will be lower than USD value of 2018.
     
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  12. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 PROFESSIONAL

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    Congratulations

    Hard work pays off
     
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  13. Neptune_

    Neptune_ FULL MEMBER

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    Someone pls do a micro analysis of Nilgiri's lengthy data driven post and make a short summary if possible. I couldn't read it after first couple of lines since it was way too long for me :P :P
     
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  14. Skies

    Skies SENIOR MEMBER

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    286 bn with 8% in 10 years = 617 bn

    and you are talking about 1 Trillion by10 years?!!!!!!!!!

    For 1 Trillion, you will need 13.4% growth for next 10 years.

    Formula: GDP x (1+(Rate/100))^Year

    You guys want to show things bigger intentionally to support BAL, let alone the credibility of BBS.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2018
  15. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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    Let us see who is right. IMF tends to predict less than actual growth mostly for BD.
    Before calling others stupid, look at yourself with the silly and incoherent crap you write all the time.
    Yes, google what "incoherent" means as you have a poor grasp of English on an English forum.
     
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