Based on world bank GDP calculation BD is 32 largest GDP in the world. It has overtaken Malaysia and starting to catchup south africa and nigeria.
Our nearest asian target is thailand but we have a long way to go to catchup with them.
This is obviously total size of the GDP rather than per capita which is the real barometer in my opinion. Given the size of our population we have a very very long way to go but incrementally we see progress.
World bank 2021 report is here.
https://databank.worldbank.org › ...PDF Gross domestic product 2021 - World Bank DataBank
Absolute size of the economy i do not think is a big thing. GDP per capita is the real measure..... we have a long way to go to catch the thaisDepends what you mean by "long way to go".
In 2022 Thailand was at 500 billion US dollars with BD at 400 billion.
Expect average annual BD economy by 3-4% a year than Thailand over this decade and so by 2030, BD should have a larger economy than Thailand.
That is true in that it gives you leverage but i suppose my concern is the average person in BD and their living standard.Absolute size is equally important.
It gives you scale and heft.
Means you can have a more diverse economy.
And less prone to blackmail by bigger players.
In your calculation everything being equal BD will reach where the thais are now in 11 years...Even then do not expect the gap to not close within 10-15 or so years.
In terms of per capita PPP BD is at 6.6K and Thailand at 15K
Thailand is now totally in "middle-income" trap with economy expected to grow at 3% annual average over the next 10-15 years.
BD is expected to grow 7% but I think 8% is more realistic and so let us take 7.5% as an average.
(6.6/15) x 1.075^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.075^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.075)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.075) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.075) = 11.35
Yes, you saw that right!
BD can realistically catch up with Thai living standards in just over a decade as BD economy is expected to grow so much faster than Thailand's.
Thailand is not a good target for BD and more than a marker as it tries the long haul to maybe one day(2050+) to become a developed economy.
In your calculation everything being equal BD will reach where the thais are now in 11 years...
Have in factored in thai growth rates.... they wont remain static.
Have to be honest can not follow your calculation. What is 1.075 and where do you get ln(25/11) from?
Thanks for the clarification.Apologies but I forget to deduct 3% which is expected Thai growth and so it should be:
(6.6/15) x 1.045^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.045^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.045)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.045) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.045) = 18.65 years.
So we are now looking at around 2040 when BD should catch Thailand with living standards - quite a long way away but it is not a lifetime away.
The 1.045 is the expected relative difference in growth rates between BD and Thailand - BD at 7.5% and Thailand at 3%.
ln(25/11) just comes from the previous numbers above and so it is the simplication of 1/(6.6/15)
As an economist I am sure that you are familar with using natural logs(ln) to bring a power(in this case x) down.
PS - We are forgetting one thing and that is BD economy may start a "super-growth" phase, once major critical infrastructure and lots of SEZs are online by mid-decade and sustain 8-9% average after that in which case it will catch up with Thailand by around 2035.
If and I am hopeful we can fully utilise our demographic dividend we can emulate china. They have really shown what can be done in a short time with concerted effort. Just a slight change in the comparative ratio in BD favour in early years will have major impact in the number of years to catch up.
According to your own ministry's the GDP is 236.6 lakh crore rupee or roughly $3.05 trillion.This year we would be a $3.5 tn economy. UK is under recession and their currency has gone down 17%. British GDP was £2.2 trillion in 2021 which today translates to $2.6 trillion (yes comparing last year’s GDP with current exchange rate doesn’t make sense but I did it to give you an idea).
Is the uk gdp stabilizing or shrinking?3.3 is low for India , we will hit atleast 3.5 Trillion , will be the 5th largest economy.
You do it seems!Does anyone f care about your reports?