What's new

Bangladesh, 41st largest economy in the world now

UKBengali

ELITE MEMBER
May 29, 2011
19,637
7
24,321
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United Kingdom
Based on world bank GDP calculation BD is 32 largest GDP in the world. It has overtaken Malaysia and starting to catchup south africa and nigeria.

Our nearest asian target is thailand but we have a long way to go to catchup with them.

This is obviously total size of the GDP rather than per capita which is the real barometer in my opinion. Given the size of our population we have a very very long way to go but incrementally we see progress.

World bank 2021 report is here.

https://databank.worldbank.org › ...PDF Gross domestic product 2021 - World Bank DataBank


Depends what you mean by "long way to go".

In 2022 Thailand was at 500 billion US dollars with BD at 400 billion.

Expect average annual BD economy by 3-4% a year than Thailand over this decade and so by 2030, BD should have a larger economy than Thailand.
 

mb444

SENIOR MEMBER
Apr 18, 2012
4,909
1
8,182
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Depends what you mean by "long way to go".

In 2022 Thailand was at 500 billion US dollars with BD at 400 billion.

Expect average annual BD economy by 3-4% a year than Thailand over this decade and so by 2030, BD should have a larger economy than Thailand.
Absolute size of the economy i do not think is a big thing. GDP per capita is the real measure..... we have a long way to go to catch the thais
 

BananaRepublicUK

FULL MEMBER
May 13, 2022
1,029
0
779
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Absolute size of the economy i do not think is a big thing. GDP per capita is the real measure..... we have a long way to go to catch the thais

Absolute size is equally important.

It gives you scale and heft.

Means you can have a more diverse economy.

And less prone to blackmail by bigger players.
 

mb444

SENIOR MEMBER
Apr 18, 2012
4,909
1
8,182
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Absolute size is equally important.

It gives you scale and heft.

Means you can have a more diverse economy.

And less prone to blackmail by bigger players.
That is true in that it gives you leverage but i suppose my concern is the average person in BD and their living standard.

As i said for me per capita GDP is more important from my personal viewpoint.
 

Bilal9

ELITE MEMBER
Feb 4, 2014
22,745
4
34,856
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United States
Absolute size of the economy i do not think is a big thing. GDP per capita is the real measure..... we have a long way to go to catch the thais

Thailand's GDP is in the 500 Billion range - ours is in the 350 Billion range.

Thailand’s total exports were ~$236 billion in the year 2017 while ours even now is only ~$38 Billion. Its main export goods are machinery, food products, wood, chemicals, automobile, stone, glass, textiles and others. Its main export partners are the United States, China, European Union, Japan and others. Thailand also has a thriving agri-export sector especially for frozen foods, ready-to-eat packaging and preserved canned goods, unlike our present situation. If we have one company like RFL/Pran, they have ten of them like this.

There is a massive amount of Japanese FDI in Thailand. Thailand was lucky enough to attract almost all the Japanese labor intensive sunset industry investments during the late 90's onward. Mostly for labor-intensive and not capital-intensive industry.

Thailand's strength is their educated workforce. Even with all the education, they are having issues attracting new FDI in diverse higher value-addition sectors besides shoes and apparel, which is the limit of their high value addition, just like ours.

This should be a lesson to us, when we get past middle income status and cannot train our workers to do high value addition export jobs like Thailand and Malaysia.

We will be stuck in a Middle-Income trap like these countries and will need another apparel-type revolution.

The total portion of poor in Thailand is 10% of their population. While it is 20% in our case.

But one advantage we have is that the number of our employable workers is 70 million, while theirs is just 38 million.
 
Last edited:

UKBengali

ELITE MEMBER
May 29, 2011
19,637
7
24,321
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United Kingdom
Absolute size of the economy i do not think is a big thing. GDP per capita is the real measure..... we have a long way to go to catch the thais


Even then do not expect the gap to not close within 10-15 or so years.

In terms of per capita PPP BD is at 6.6K and Thailand at 15K

Thailand is now totally in "middle-income" trap with economy expected to grow at 3% annual average over the next 10-15 years.

BD is expected to grow 7% but I think 8% is more realistic and so let us take 7.5% as an average.


(6.6/15) x 1.075^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.075^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.075)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.075) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.075) = 11.35

Yes, you saw that right!

BD can realistically catch up with Thai living standards in just over a decade as BD economy is expected to grow so much faster than Thailand's.

Thailand is not a good target for BD and more than a marker as it tries the long haul to maybe one day(2050+) to become a developed economy.
 

mb444

SENIOR MEMBER
Apr 18, 2012
4,909
1
8,182
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Even then do not expect the gap to not close within 10-15 or so years.

In terms of per capita PPP BD is at 6.6K and Thailand at 15K

Thailand is now totally in "middle-income" trap with economy expected to grow at 3% annual average over the next 10-15 years.

BD is expected to grow 7% but I think 8% is more realistic and so let us take 7.5% as an average.


(6.6/15) x 1.075^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.075^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.075)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.075) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.075) = 11.35

Yes, you saw that right!

BD can realistically catch up with Thai living standards in just over a decade as BD economy is expected to grow so much faster than Thailand's.

Thailand is not a good target for BD and more than a marker as it tries the long haul to maybe one day(2050+) to become a developed economy.
In your calculation everything being equal BD will reach where the thais are now in 11 years...

Have in factored in thai growth rates.... they wont remain static.

Have to be honest can not follow your calculation. What is 1.075 and where do you get ln(25/11) from?
 
Last edited:

UKBengali

ELITE MEMBER
May 29, 2011
19,637
7
24,321
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United Kingdom
In your calculation everything being equal BD will reach where the thais are now in 11 years...

Have in factored in thai growth rates.... they wont remain static.

Have to be honest can not follow your calculation. What is 1.075 and where do you get ln(25/11) from?


Apologies but I forget to deduct 3% which is expected Thai growth and so it should be:

(6.6/15) x 1.045^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.045^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.045)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.045) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.045) = 18.65 years.

So we are now looking at around 2040 when BD should catch Thailand with living standards - quite a long way away but it is not a lifetime away.

The 1.045 is the expected relative difference in growth rates between BD and Thailand - BD at 7.5% and Thailand at 3%.

ln(25/11) just comes from the previous numbers above and so it is the simplication of 1/(6.6/15)

As an economist I am sure that you are familar with using natural logs(ln) to bring a power(in this case x) down.

PS - We are forgetting one thing and that is BD economy may start a "super-growth" phase, once major critical infrastructure and lots of SEZs are online by mid-decade and sustain 8-9% average after that in which case it will catch up with Thailand by around 2035.
 

mb444

SENIOR MEMBER
Apr 18, 2012
4,909
1
8,182
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Apologies but I forget to deduct 3% which is expected Thai growth and so it should be:

(6.6/15) x 1.045^x = 1, where x is the number of years for BD to catch up with Thailand.
1.045^x = 1/(6.6/15)
ln(1.045)^x = ln(25/11)
x ln(1.045) = ln(25/11)
x = ln(25/11) / ln(1.045) = 18.65 years.

So we are now looking at around 2040 when BD should catch Thailand with living standards - quite a long way away but it is not a lifetime away.

The 1.045 is the expected relative difference in growth rates between BD and Thailand - BD at 7.5% and Thailand at 3%.

ln(25/11) just comes from the previous numbers above and so it is the simplication of 1/(6.6/15)

As an economist I am sure that you are familar with using natural logs(ln) to bring a power(in this case x) down.

PS - We are forgetting one thing and that is BD economy may start a "super-growth" phase, once major critical infrastructure and lots of SEZs are online by mid-decade and sustain 8-9% average after that in which case it will catch up with Thailand by around 2035.
Thanks for the clarification.

Your straight line approach is a good one. I am however very hopeful it will not take that long.

One of the big factors in economic modeling is the velocity of money and price elasticity of goods. I suspect that thailand has lower price elasticity thus greater stability but certainly BD has and will continue to have higher money velocity and greater the velocity, greater the growth. This would be because we have a larger population (you already indicated the difference in manpower) in a smaller geographical area thus more transaction.

If and I am hopeful we can fully utilise our demographic dividend we can emulate china. They have really shown what can be done in a short time with concerted effort. Just a slight change in the comparative ratio in BD favour in early years will have major impact in the number of years to catch up.
 

UKBengali

ELITE MEMBER
May 29, 2011
19,637
7
24,321
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United Kingdom
If and I am hopeful we can fully utilise our demographic dividend we can emulate china. They have really shown what can be done in a short time with concerted effort. Just a slight change in the comparative ratio in BD favour in early years will have major impact in the number of years to catch up.


Absolutely we cannot even rule out 10% average annual sustained by mid-decade.

BD is a small and densely populated country with a single unitary goverment and it can grow really fast if the right conditions are in place.

It would probably be on 8% a year now GDP growth if it was not for the global headwinds we are now facing due to Covid-19 and Ukraine war.
 

damiendehorn2

FULL MEMBER

New Recruit

Nov 24, 2021
95
0
134
Country
Bangladesh
Location
United Kingdom
This year we would be a $3.5 tn economy. UK is under recession and their currency has gone down 17%. British GDP was £2.2 trillion in 2021 which today translates to $2.6 trillion (yes comparing last year’s GDP with current exchange rate doesn’t make sense but I did it to give you an idea).
According to your own ministry's the GDP is 236.6 lakh crore rupee or roughly $3.05 trillion.
 

Black Tornado

SENIOR MEMBER
Jul 26, 2021
2,454
-9
2,682
Country
India
Location
Nepal
According to your own ministry's the GDP is 236.6 lakh crore rupee or roughly $3.05 trillion.
That was 2021 GDP, average exchange rate in 2021 for Indian Rupee was roughly ₹74 = $1. Or simply $3.2 trillion dollars.
1658332883630.png

1658332940577.png
 

Constantin84

FULL MEMBER
Feb 4, 2020
663
0
707
Country
Romania
Location
United Kingdom
I wonder how Iran jumped from 500billion dollars in 2019 to over 1.74 trillion in 2022, that with several years of recession or modest economic growth....in the 2 to 3% margin? Something is way off...
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom