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Attack by Myanmar’s Kachin minority signals deepening crisis

Destranator

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Kachin or Karens are none of our business and they live are far away from the BD border. Even if it is Rohingya, BD just cannot cross the international border that was decided during the time of President Ayub Khan sometime in the 1960s (?).

By that Treaty, Burmese troops withdrew south of Naaf Dariya and the centerline of Naaf has been demarcated as the international border. Before that, both banks of the river belonged to Burma.

BD is not a superpower like America or Russia. It is the only crying baby in this world.
Thanks. I agree that BD has no business intervening in Burma.
 

Bengal71

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Your points are very well thought out. Let me put out my position in order of my preference.

1. Arm the rohingya clandestinely- i believe this is the optimal solution. There are many insurgency in the simian collective where minorities have carved out an area of autonomy. However each of these minorities has a backer. Rohingya current position is because BD have not backed them. An armed rohingya insurgency i belive would be sucessful. The simian armed forces have failed to beat any of their insurgencies and they will fail here too.

It is also possible this further insurgency will break the camels back and may lead to army losing its grip on power. Even if it does not, no matter the rohingya can create a safe place for themselves. This eases pressure on BD in the short term and we gain long term leverage accross the naff.

This will also make the rohingya a player rather than just victims in the future.

For us worst case scenario we have removed a source of volatility to where it belongs rather than incubating the problem in our country.

Rohingya are people and they are our cousins. As all people they will rise to the challenge, they just need someone to back them. They are not seeking independence, just the right to exist. The aims are different, the calculus is not the same as 1971. Their aim is perfectly attainable with our help.
I would still maintain that the Rohingya are not up to the job. Besides even before the Rohingya crisis started Islamic terrorist groups tried to exploit the situation and get a foothold in Arakan. If they managed to do it, you would see a lot of recruits from BD going there, joining them and upon return destabilizing BD itself. The other issue is Burma will easily turn it into a Islamic terrorism issue and the whole world specially the western world has not appetite for Islamic terrorism, we and Rohingya both would lose any international support.

Because of this reason, initially my opinion was if we were to go into the arming and training business we should only do so with the non-Rohingya who are fighting against the Burmese government. We could theoritically negotiate with those armed groups that we would finance, arm and train them in return for safety of the Rohingya and if they ever manage autonomy or an independent country they would recognize the Rohingya as their own citizens. If we go the arming and training route, even today I believe this is the best option.

2. Integrate them in BD- Rohingya are muslims, it will be costly to integrate but we can do it and it is safer then herding them up in random places ad infinitum. Lack of opportunity and hope is the reasons for rohingya turning to crime or religious orthodoxy. These are symptoms of marginalisation and not the cause of it.
Integration in BD is not acceptable. It will give the wrong message to the Burmese that BD is so weak they can get away with anything. They will try other sinister things in the future.

3. War with Burma - unpaletable option and should be avoided but not at all cost. Any further progrom against rohingya should result in a military response. We need to cross naff and capture enough territory to settle and safeguard the rohingya. International legal precedence would support BD in this as we would be going in to prevent a further genocide.

BD should not seek to anex the territory officially but just create a safe heaven. BD needs to immediately internationalise the situation and get the UN in to sort out the mess. BDs only purpose would be to safeguard the safe heaven. The situation is likely to become a stalemate until democracy returns.

I really do not see this leading to any kind of prolonged war. Simian collective can not afford it and can not fight us without ceeding territory to other insurgencies.

China will seek to calm situation rather than whole heartedly support the savages.

I detest this option primarily because it is assumed that BD forces have the capability to cross the Naf and secure a territory. Even if they can manage it, there is no reason to believe that the Burmese military will not start a prolonged war to gain back the territory, they will even resort to conscription if needed, it's their own land why won't they.

I am not convicned China will just try to calm the situation and won't support the Burmese whoheartedly. They have demonstrated that by giving veto repeatedly to support the Burmese. Moreover they have strategic interest in Burma, they are building ports and roads connecting Chine to the BoB. If anything they will fully stop supplying weapons to BD and mind you most of our equipment are from China, and they will supply the Burmese with anything they need, if they can't afford to buy they will supply for free.
 

mb444

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I would still maintain that the Rohingya are not up to the job. Besides even before the Rohingya crisis started Islamic terrorist groups tried to exploit the situation and get a foothold in Arakan. If they managed to do it, you would see a lot of recruits from BD going there, joining them and upon return destabilizing BD itself. The other issue is Burma will easily turn it into a Islamic terrorism issue and the whole world specially the western world has not appetite for Islamic terrorism, we and Rohingya both would lose any international support.

Because of this reason, initially my opinion was if we were to go into the arming and training business we should only do so with the non-Rohingya who are fighting against the Burmese government. We could theoritically negotiate with those armed groups that we would finance, arm and train them in return for safety of the Rohingya and if they ever manage autonomy or an independent country they would recognize the Rohingya as their own citizens. If we go the arming and training route, even today I believe this is the best option.



Integration in BD is not acceptable. It will give the wrong message to the Burmese that BD is so weak they can get away with anything. They will try other sinister things in the future.




I detest this option primarily because it is assumed that BD forces have the capability to cross the Naf and secure a territory. Even if they can manage it, there is no reason to believe that the Burmese military will not start a prolonged war to gain back the territory, they will even resort to conscription if needed, it's their own land why won't they.

I am not convicned China will just try to calm the situation and won't support the Burmese whoheartedly. They have demonstrated that by giving veto repeatedly to support the Burmese. Moreover they have strategic interest in Burma, they are building ports and roads connecting Chine to the BoB. If anything they will fully stop supplying weapons to BD and mind you most of our equipment are from China, and they will supply the Burmese with anything they need, if they can't afford to buy they will supply for free.
I understand your reservation fully, however maintain my points.

China can not afford to alianate BD. She has interest in both countries although arguably more in simian collective. It is not a zero sum game.

BD is not really reliant on china, economically the balance of trade and investment favours china.

BD can fully tilt towards the quad and this venture will open up the simian collective to the west. This would a major disadvantage for china as they would lose access to the indian ocean.

BD has cards to play. I believe the quad would back BD if the game is played judiciously. For this reason China will also play ball.

You see i view the rohingya issue as a time bomb. We can not control it and waiting is not an option and potentially has massive negative ramification for BD . We have to act now, either help the rohingya stand on their feet in BD or accross the border.
 

Bengal71

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I understand your reservation fully, however maintain my points.

China can not afford to alianate BD. She has interest in both countries although arguably more in simian collective. It is not a zero sum game.

BD is not really reliant on china, economically the balance of trade and investment favours china.

BD can fully tilt towards the quad and this venture will open up the simian collective to the west. This would a major disadvantage for china as they would lose access to the indian ocean.

BD has cards to play. I believe the quad would back BD if the game is played judiciously. For this reason China will also play ball.

You see i view the rohingya issue as a time bomb. We can not control it and waiting is not an option and potentially has massive negative ramification for BD . We have to act now, either help the rohingya stand on their feet in BD or accross the border.
I am also for acting now but I just don't see a good option, that's all.
 

casual

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I would still maintain that the Rohingya are not up to the job. Besides even before the Rohingya crisis started Islamic terrorist groups tried to exploit the situation and get a foothold in Arakan. If they managed to do it, you would see a lot of recruits from BD going there, joining them and upon return destabilizing BD itself. The other issue is Burma will easily turn it into a Islamic terrorism issue and the whole world specially the western world has not appetite for Islamic terrorism, we and Rohingya both would lose any international support.

Because of this reason, initially my opinion was if we were to go into the arming and training business we should only do so with the non-Rohingya who are fighting against the Burmese government. We could theoritically negotiate with those armed groups that we would finance, arm and train them in return for safety of the Rohingya and if they ever manage autonomy or an independent country they would recognize the Rohingya as their own citizens. If we go the arming and training route, even today I believe this is the best option.



Integration in BD is not acceptable. It will give the wrong message to the Burmese that BD is so weak they can get away with anything. They will try other sinister things in the future.




I detest this option primarily because it is assumed that BD forces have the capability to cross the Naf and secure a territory. Even if they can manage it, there is no reason to believe that the Burmese military will not start a prolonged war to gain back the territory, they will even resort to conscription if needed, it's their own land why won't they.

I am not convicned China will just try to calm the situation and won't support the Burmese whoheartedly. They have demonstrated that by giving veto repeatedly to support the Burmese. Moreover they have strategic interest in Burma, they are building ports and roads connecting Chine to the BoB. If anything they will fully stop supplying weapons to BD and mind you most of our equipment are from China, and they will supply the Burmese with anything they need, if they can't afford to buy they will supply for free.
You have the right idea regarding the Rohingyas. However I don't believe China supports the Junta. China wants stability in Myanmar and right now the Junta is failing to provide that. The Chinese gov is probably furious with the Junta but don't see any other options. Also, China has influence of varying degrees with the ethnic armed organizations on its borders. If a civil war does break out, it's not clear which side China will fall on. As for BD, I suggest trying to influence the EOAs on the border and also keep communications open. Also there is common interest with countries in the region of keeping stability in Myanmar.
 

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