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Attack by Myanmar’s Kachin minority signals deepening crisis

bluesky

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BD should not just watch. It is time to train and arm the rohingya, if the junta falls the rohingya should to assisted in setting up a autonomous region or better still an independent country if the other nationalities declare independence.

BD can not directly get involved as it would unite the simian collective but we must back up the rohingya to retake and reestablish their country.
The Burmese pie may be too bitter for a weak and coward entity like Bangladesh. This pie will be taken care of by regional powers like China, India, and even Thailand. BD under Hasina Bibi's BAL is too, too weak to do so.

BD's stated foreign policy is to swallow bitter pills from others. This policy suits us very much because we are known in the world as COWARD BANGALI.
 
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Bengal71

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The Burmese pie may not be too bitter for a weak and coward entity like Bangladesh. This pie will be taken care of by regional powers like China, India, and even Thailand. BD under Hasina Bibi's BAL is too, too weak to do so.

BD's stated foreign policy is to swallow bitterness with others and sharpen a sweet relationship with them. This policy suits us very much because we are known in the world as COWARD BANGALI.
SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future.
 

Jobless Jack

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YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Kachin guerrillas attacked a police outpost in northern Myanmar early Wednesday, local media reported, in an indication of the deepening involvement of ethnic minority armed forces in the country’s popular movement seeking to unseat the junta that seized power in February.

The action follows conflict in eastern Myanmar, where Karen guerrillas seized an army outpost Saturday and Myanmar’s military followed with airstrikes that killed about 10 villagers and drove thousands more across the border into Thailand.


After the airstrikes, the Karen National Union issued a statement from one of its armed units saying Myanmar military “ground troops are advancing into our territories from all fronts” and it may have to respond. The KNU is the main political body representing the Karen minority.

The conflict in eastern Myanmar expanded the crisis regionally, as an estimated 3,000 Karen took temporary shelter in neighboring Thailand. Thai authorities said Wednesday only about 200 remained in the country and were preparing to go back across the border.

Leaders of the protest movement against the military’s Feb. 1 ouster of the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi have been seeking an alliance with the ethnic minorities’ armed groups to boost pressure on the junta. They would like them to form what they are calling a federal army as a counterweight to the government armed forces.

It is unclear what, if any, progress has been made toward that goal, though several of the major groups — including the Kachin, the Karen and the Rakhines’ Arakan Army in western Myanmar — have publicly denounced the coup and said they will defend protesters in the territory they control.

More than a dozen of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have been seeking greater autonomy for decades, going through cycles of armed conflict and uneasy ceasefires.

The Kachin Independence Army, the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organization, attacked a police station in Kachin state’s Shwegu township before dawn in Wednesday, local outlets The 74 Media and Bhamo Platform reported. The attackers were reported to have seized weapons and supplies and wounded one police officer.

The Kachin have staged a series of attacks on government forces since the coup, saying the latest round of fighting was triggered by government assaults on four Kachin outposts. After one Kachin attack in mid-March, the military retaliated with a helicopter attack on a Kachin base.

Protests meanwhile continue in Myanmar’s cities against the military takeover that reversed a decade of progress toward democracy in the Southeast Asian country that followed five decades of army rule.

Anti-coup protesters marched through an area of Yangon on Wednesday despite reduced numbers in the face of the ever-climbing death toll.

At least 521 protesters have been killed since the coup, according to Myanmar’s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which counts those it can document and says the actual toll is likely much higher. It says 2,608 people have been detained, a total that includes Suu Kyi.

The mainly young demonstrators processed through the city’s Hlaing suburb, stopping to honor a protester killed in an earlier confrontation with security forces.

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday ordered non-essential U.S. diplomats and their families to leave Myanmar, expecting the protests to continue. The U.S. earlier suspended a trade deal and imposed sanctions on junta leaders as well as restricted business with military holding companies.



Kachin, Karen guerrillas getting into action, if the situation devolves into civil war is there an opportunity here for Bangladesh to solve Rohingya issue?
Yes. But not now. Bd must wait

Only if burma descends into civil war, then BD intervenes to secure the arakan province.similar to what the turks did in northern syria. Only then can BD ensure the return of the rohingya.

But wont happen under awami league. Awami league has to go and BD will need chinese diplomatic support. Then possible
 

Mirzah

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SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future.
but Pakistanis did humble the soviets and made situation so unbearable that they had to retreat from Afghanistan. We need Bamars to retreat from Arakan if the Rohingya's have any realistic chance to return otherwise we have to host them till eternity.
 

Bengal71

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but Pakistanis did humble the soviets and made situation so unbearable that they had to retreat from Afghanistan. We need Bamars to retreat from Arakan if the Rohingya's have any realistic chance to return otherwise we have to host them till eternity.
Ok. And they are still assisting the US. who cares who they humbled. Their country in destablized by terrorism to this day. Will we be able to bear it if bombs go off in moques, streets, marketplaces 10/15 times a month all over the country? BD is as peaceful and stable as it gets. সুখে থাকলে ভুতে কিলায়।
 

Mirzah

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Ok. And they are still assisting the US. who cares who they humbled. Their country in destablized by terrorism to this day. Will we be able to bear it if bombs go off in moques, streets, marketplaces 10/15 times a month all over the country? BD is as peaceful and stable as it gets. সুখে থাকলে ভুতে কিলায়।
hosting 1.2 million refugees indefinitely isn't good for our stability, many are already involved in criminal gangs, drug smuggling. Cox's bazar, Teknaf is already reeling from their effects and deforestation. We can't keep waiting indefinitely for Myanmar generals to show mercy and take them back.
 
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SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future.
ISIS or Al Qaeda won't enter Myanmar. It is not their operational base.

What will happen is CIA might create new rebel or proxy groups in this region.
The Burmese pie may not be too bitter for a weak and coward entity like Bangladesh. This pie will be taken care of by regional powers like China, India, and even Thailand. BD under Hasina Bibi's BAL is too, too weak to do so.

BD's stated foreign policy is to swallow bitterness with others and sharpen a sweet relationship with them. This policy suits us very much because we are known in the world as COWARD BANGALI.
Bangladesh nor Thailand are regional powers who can play proxy warfare. Only India and China can do that. Bangladeshi and Thai intelligence ain't that advanced.

Bangladesh should not do anything unless it somehow gets involved into the conflict.
 

ARMalik

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YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Kachin guerrillas attacked a police outpost in northern Myanmar early Wednesday, local media reported, in an indication of the deepening involvement of ethnic minority armed forces in the country’s popular movement seeking to unseat the junta that seized power in February.

The action follows conflict in eastern Myanmar, where Karen guerrillas seized an army outpost Saturday and Myanmar’s military followed with airstrikes that killed about 10 villagers and drove thousands more across the border into Thailand.


After the airstrikes, the Karen National Union issued a statement from one of its armed units saying Myanmar military “ground troops are advancing into our territories from all fronts” and it may have to respond. The KNU is the main political body representing the Karen minority.

The conflict in eastern Myanmar expanded the crisis regionally, as an estimated 3,000 Karen took temporary shelter in neighboring Thailand. Thai authorities said Wednesday only about 200 remained in the country and were preparing to go back across the border.

Leaders of the protest movement against the military’s Feb. 1 ouster of the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi have been seeking an alliance with the ethnic minorities’ armed groups to boost pressure on the junta. They would like them to form what they are calling a federal army as a counterweight to the government armed forces.

It is unclear what, if any, progress has been made toward that goal, though several of the major groups — including the Kachin, the Karen and the Rakhines’ Arakan Army in western Myanmar — have publicly denounced the coup and said they will defend protesters in the territory they control.

More than a dozen of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have been seeking greater autonomy for decades, going through cycles of armed conflict and uneasy ceasefires.

The Kachin Independence Army, the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organization, attacked a police station in Kachin state’s Shwegu township before dawn in Wednesday, local outlets The 74 Media and Bhamo Platform reported. The attackers were reported to have seized weapons and supplies and wounded one police officer.

The Kachin have staged a series of attacks on government forces since the coup, saying the latest round of fighting was triggered by government assaults on four Kachin outposts. After one Kachin attack in mid-March, the military retaliated with a helicopter attack on a Kachin base.

Protests meanwhile continue in Myanmar’s cities against the military takeover that reversed a decade of progress toward democracy in the Southeast Asian country that followed five decades of army rule.

Anti-coup protesters marched through an area of Yangon on Wednesday despite reduced numbers in the face of the ever-climbing death toll.

At least 521 protesters have been killed since the coup, according to Myanmar’s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which counts those it can document and says the actual toll is likely much higher. It says 2,608 people have been detained, a total that includes Suu Kyi.

The mainly young demonstrators processed through the city’s Hlaing suburb, stopping to honor a protester killed in an earlier confrontation with security forces.

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday ordered non-essential U.S. diplomats and their families to leave Myanmar, expecting the protests to continue. The U.S. earlier suspended a trade deal and imposed sanctions on junta leaders as well as restricted business with military holding companies.



Kachin, Karen guerrillas getting into action, if the situation devolves into civil war is there an opportunity here for Bangladesh to solve Rohingya issue?
Propaganda at the most. Myanmar is stable and taken over by the military. Get over it and accept the reality. Fake articles won't get you people anywhere or change the reality on the grounds.
 

mb444

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SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future.

Your caution is well placed but rohingyas needs to be armed to enable them to reclaim their lands unless we wish them to settle in ours.

The simian collective has always been thus, BD reaps very little benefit from its "stability" perhaps we will benefit from "chaos".

The path to stability in the simian collective is there for us to see in chinese minorities.... armed to the teeth and thus peace.... the situation is not the same as in afganistan.

Rohingya debacle is entirely of BDs making.... the burmese are murderous savages, this has always been known. They only understands force... our inaction caused the expulsion of the rohingya....the rohingya are our buffer against the moghs and it is in BDs longterm interest to ensure rohingya returns to their land and is able to independently hold it.
 

bluesky

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SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future.
It is very difficult to answer your many rosy assumptions. But, is BD a Germany or a Japan that fought two WW? German had Hitler and we have Hasina Bibi.

কোথায় তালগাছ
আর কোথায় BAL গাছ !!!

We are not a regional player. Our military activities are limited in peacekeeping works in Africa under the UN. BD is a useless and impotent country when it is world or regional politics except that our politicians and newspapers make us believe otherwise.

BD is not even a paper tiger.
 

leonblack08

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SO what should be the policy to transform ourselves from "COWRD BENGALI" to "BRAVE BENGALI"?

If Burma implodes and a civil war erupts, should BD take the opportunity and arm Rohingya and ARSA secretly and try to carve out an independent nation out of Arakan? Assume it's a good strategy but what are the potential side effects of it? Let me try to list them out.

1. Because of civil war numberous refugees will enter BD, India and Thailand.
2. Because of civil war backer of all rebel groups will supply them weapons.
3. Because of civil war any law and order that exists in Burma will breakdown and it will be a heaven for international arms smugglers to sell weapon there.
4. Al Qaeda and ISIS types groups will thrive in there because they thrive in chaos.
5. Those AQ, ISIS type groups will gain access to huge amount of modern weapons that they don't have access to in BD or in India.
6. They will gain access to those weapons and they already have a very fertile land in BD to recruit extremists.
7. They will seek to use the opportunity to establish their dream Islamic state and heavy terrorism will ensue in BD and also in Inida.

..... and many more relevant consequences

Bravado filled decisions are not necessarily the best decisions at all times. One of our Muslim neighbors took such decisions decades ago and they are eating the fruits of that to this day. I would rather be a "Coward Bengali" and make the correct decisions keeping in view the long term future
.
Agreed. In addition to the security risk in the form of terrorist entities getting a new stronghold, we have a good reputation in the world. It helps our international trade and economy. We don't want to bring in undue attention to us by being involved in funding of "terrorist activities".

Sure US may support us funding ARSA now to fight the Junta, but 10 years down the line when AQ and ISIS gets involved, they will simply wash their hands off and make us the scapegoats. Just like they did with Pakistan. We don't want ARSA to become a headache for us 10 years down the line. No need to create a Frankenstein.

Bangladesh should remain neutral at all times. Let them implode and tear into pieces, it's their internal matter.

But at least this time we need to ensure we push back on refugee influx. We can't afford to host more refugees.
 

bluesky

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Propaganda at the most. Myanmar is stable and taken over by the military. Get over it and accept the reality. Fake articles won't get you people anywhere or change the reality on the grounds.
Yes, MM is stable, but evil newspapers claim so far the military has killed 581 protesters. So, how peaceful it is? I think more peace will prevail in that ragtag country now that Karen, Chin, and many other tribal areas are vying for autonomy or outright independence from MM.
 

Bengal71

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hosting 1.2 million refugees indefinitely isn't good for our stability, many are already involved in criminal gangs, drug smuggling. Cox's bazar, Teknaf is already reeling from their effects and deforestation. We can't keep waiting indefinitely for Myanmar generals to show mercy and take them back.
We all know that. But in the absence of a good solution it's not wise to accept any solution without calculating the consequences. The solutions being proposed have very far reaching consequences.
Agreed. In addition to the security risk in the form of terrorist entities getting a new stronghold, we have a good reputation in the world. It helps our international trade and economy. We don't want to bring in undue attention to us by being involved in funding of "terrorist activities".

Sure US may support us funding ARSA now to fight the Junta, but 10 years down the line when AQ and ISIS gets involved, they will simply wash their hands off and make us the scapegoats. Just like they did with Pakistan. We don't want ARSA to become a headache for us 10 years down the line. No need to create a Frankenstein.

Bangladesh should remain neutral at all times. Let them implode and tear into pieces, it's their internal matter.

But at least this time we need to ensure we push back on refugee influx. We can't afford to host more refugees.
In my opinion the best course of action at this time is to wait and see and let the events play out. If civil war breaks out in Burma, BD should use all it's power, the military and the paramilitary forces to completely seal off the border and ensure not a single Burmese refuge can enter regardless of what humanitarian crisis starts in Burma. Anti-terror law enforcement cells of the authorities must go on overdrive mode during the civil war period.

Best outcome for us would be if Arakan becomes an independent country after the civil war which will cut off the main Burmese heartland from us ensuring long term headache is gone. If Arakan can become independent then it would be easier for us to negotiate return of the Rohingya as the characteristic of the new state may not be he same as the original Burmese state. They may just go secular ensuring the rights of all ethnic and religious minorities.
 
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Bengal71

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It is very difficult to answer your many rosy assumptions. But, is BD a Germany or a Japan that fought two WW? German had Hitler and we have Hasina Bibi.

কোথায় তালগাছ
আর কোথায় BAL গাছ !!!

We are not a regional player. Our military activities are limited in peacekeeping works in Africa under the UN. BD is a useless and impotent country when it is world or regional politics except that our politicians and newspapers make us believe otherwise.

BD is not even a paper tiger.
I have no idea what you are talking about. What rosy picture? I drew a bleak picture. I have no idea what Germany and Japan fighting in WWs has got to do anything with it? Basically I don't understand what you are talking about.
 

Bengal71

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Your caution is well placed but rohingyas needs to be armed to enable them to reclaim their lands unless we wish them to settle in ours.

The simian collective has always been thus, BD reaps very little benefit from its "stability" perhaps we will benefit from "chaos".

The path to stability in the simian collective is there for us to see in chinese minorities.... armed to the teeth and thus peace.... the situation is not the same as in afganistan.

Rohingya debacle is entirely of BDs making.... the burmese are murderous savages, this has always been known. They only understands force... our inaction caused the expulsion of the rohingya....the rohingya are our buffer against the moghs and it is in BDs longterm interest to ensure rohingya returns to their land and is able to independently hold it.
Rohingya need to be armed to what effect and what results can be realistically hoped? The Rohingya are a small minority even in Arakan, there are other ethnic majorities in Arakan who also hate them and took park in the genocide along with the military. The Rohingya are a totally illiterate bunch, they are highly primitive and they don't have any educated leadership who can organize them. I very much doubt the Rohingya as a people firstly understand the need for an independent state or at least a homeland with autonomy or semi-autonomy. Even if they do I doubt they are able to be organized under a leadership and work with a plan in an organized and disciplined manner to achieve their objectives. Lastly, even if they had a good leadership and were able to be organized they have very little possibility of achieving anything because the majority population in Arakan are against them and the military and those people will together crush them. It will also legitimize Burmese claim that Rohingya as a terrorist group and lessen their crimes committed on the Rohingya. Ultimately it will achieve nothing. We will end up having a Rohingya who are now heavily armed and able to wrek havoc within out own country, with them will join the Islamic terrorist groups.
 

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