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As Pakistan trade deficit highest ever in a month our FM and Federal cabinet has decided to further reduce tariff of cars on 1000 CC cars.

F.O.X

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posting links from here and there

internet is so convenient for pti trolls
Just goes to show you know Jack $hit about financial system and how it works, I wont be wasting my time on little kids anymore, if you wan to have a discussion complete your education first.
 

Mav3rick

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so according to OP 2018 default was better where we had cad $20 billion but this cad is bad? lol
18-20 Billion CAD for a 314.6 Billion GDP in 2018 apparently appears better than 10-15 Billion CAD for a 280 Billion GDP in 2021!

In economics, CAD should not exist in ideal conditions or should be maintainable with other sources if the exports are not sufficient (FDI, Remittances etc.). However, even if CAD is maintainable with additional debt in a growing economy where purchasing power and loan servicing grows stronger every year, the is no cause for concern.

The only cause for concern is when Rupee is allowed to "free float" to 170, economy shrink's, exports not registering the true potential of the country, foreign debt continues to pile on at an unprecedented rate, circular debt gets out of control, real inflation in 3 years climbs over 60%-70% (electricity, gas, medicine, flour, milk, oil, vegetables and fruit, pulses, transport etc.) and still people continue the same old rhetoric that this is because of the doings of the previous Government!
 

AZ1

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18-20 Billion CAD for a 314.6 Billion GDP in 2018 apparently appears better than 10-15 Billion CAD for a 280 Billion GDP in 2021!

In economics, CAD should not exist in ideal conditions or should be maintainable with other sources if the exports are not sufficient (FDI, Remittances etc.). However, even if CAD is maintainable with additional debt in a growing economy where purchasing power and loan servicing grows stronger every year, the is no cause for concern.

The only cause for concern is when Rupee is allowed to "free float" to 170, economy shrink's, exports not registering the true potential of the country, foreign debt continues to pile on at an unprecedented rate, circular debt gets out of control, real inflation in 3 years climbs over 60%-70% (electricity, gas, medicine, flour, milk, oil, vegetables and fruit, pulses, transport etc.) and still people continue the same old rhetoric that this is because of the doings of the previous Government!
Yeah thats why we were near to default and our foriegn reserve depleting in millions per week.

who made the electricity contracts? debt payment? $92 billion loan debt? dont try to fool others here.

2013 PAK reserves $24B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B
2013 PAK External Debt $58B
2018 PAK External Debt $92B
2018 Current account deficit $20B



and if its about food price the. look this

E-2UP1eVUAEkRWL.jpeg


check this if above isnt enough
AEFD49CB-9B9A-492A-8CBF-A2906FCB3D2B-1.jpeg
 
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Patriot forever

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18-20 Billion CAD for a 314.6 Billion GDP in 2018 apparently appears better than 10-15 Billion CAD for a 280 Billion GDP in 2021!

In economics, CAD should not exist in ideal conditions or should be maintainable with other sources if the exports are not sufficient (FDI, Remittances etc.). However, even if CAD is maintainable with additional debt in a growing economy where purchasing power and loan servicing grows stronger every year, the is no cause for concern.

The only cause for concern is when Rupee is allowed to "free float" to 170, economy shrink's, exports not registering the true potential of the country, foreign debt continues to pile on at an unprecedented rate, circular debt gets out of control, real inflation in 3 years climbs over 60%-70% (electricity, gas, medicine, flour, milk, oil, vegetables and fruit, pulses, transport etc.) and still people continue the same old rhetoric that this is because of the doings of the previous Government!
This thinking and misconception is the reason why we ended up with IMF 🙂

You got everything upside down.
 

Mav3rick

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Yeah thats why we were near to default and our foriegn reserve depleting in millions per week.

who made the electricity contracts? debt payment? $92 billion loan debt? dont try to fool others here.
Only those who either don't understand these things or are truly blinded would believe that nonsense. People don't even understand what default really is and what its repercussions are and I am sure you don't either. Just as an example, Greece defaulted, what happened? Foreign reserves deplete and are replenished, this is a cycle and is inconsequential unless the depletion continue to outpace replenishment which was not the case.

Electricity contracts when the Government was facing 16 hours of Load Shedding and was at the mercy of IPP's was a normal thing; consider the example of the face mask which shot to Rs. 25/mask when the demand grew monstrously only to fall back down to Rs. 2-3/Mask today. 92 Billion debt at 315 Billion GDP I would take any day over 120 Billion Debt in a 280 Billion GDP!



and if its about food price the. look this

View attachment 778638
In my opinion, if the above is true, the person should be banned from politics and perhaps even exiled out of Pakistan. It is, however, unbelievable.
This thinking and misconception is the reason why we ended up with IMF 🙂

You got everything upside down.
That's your opinion, right? And could be very very wrong? Matter of fact, you decided to convey your opinion without a shred of argument in support, this is typical of those who create arguments and hatred because of their political affiliations instead of sane and logical conclusions.
 

AZ1

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In my opinion, if the above is true, the person should be banned from politics and perhaps even exiled out of Pakistan. It is, however, unbelievable.
this indeed true rest is upto you to think. I can share videos of economic expert. PTi somehow manage pakistan from bankrupt.

now our remittances higher
reserve are higher

we also manage to bring down CAD to minimum from $20 billion to $2 billion and. now CAD is increasing some says we will be $18 billion by 2022-2023 with this speed even then we would be less $2 billion CAD then pmln but our reserve will also higher than what was in 2018.

Pmln just took loans and kept rupees stable now we have to return those loan with interest. There is no rocket science here.
 

Affan-khan

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REER is now below 100 so dollar will stay here or go down. Last year it was same 168 and then to 152. Look like 160-168 is level to keep CAD at check. Price of palm and crude is more than double lower prices in future will help to reduce that bill. Plus double the machinery import than 5 year average due to TERF is another reason of higher import bill. Ckd import is just 240 million usd how much this impact total imports?
 

AZ1

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This is interesting, can you add current figures from 2020/21?
then you should also compare
loan debt
CAD
Reserves
Remittance
Export

This is why i posted above

2013 PAK reserves $24B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B
2013 PAK External Debt $58B
2018 PAK External Debt $92B
2018 Current account deficit $20B
 

Patriot forever

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REER is now below 100 so dollar will stay here or go down. Last year it was same 168 and then to 152. Look like 160-168 is level to keep CAD at check. Price of palm and crude is more than double lower prices in future will help to reduce that bill. Plus double the machinery import than 5 year average due to TERF is another reason of higher import bill. Ckd import is just 240 million usd how much this impact total imports?
Yes right now currency is bearing the brunt of this internarional inflationary cycle. Once it gets stable currency will appreciate on its own and our CAD will come down. If that does not happen we have to slow down the economy.

Screenshot_20210918-124714.jpg
Screenshot_20210918-124731.jpg


This is the import breakdown for July and August.

There are barely any un necessary imports. Its the international inflationary cycle at work.

No extra taxes can bring it down, as everything which is remotely luxury is already taxed. Terf is through concessional financing which is already booked so interest hike will not effect it, along with other machinery imports it is necessary to increase export capacity along with local industrial growrh. Vaccines imports ( in medicinal imports) is unavoidable.

REER value went below 100 and it will play a part to bring imports down. Fuel prices impact is passed on so again it will again encourage moderation in consumption.

Next is maybe 25-50 bps increase in interest rate ( I hope they don't over do it).

What we should not do is artificially manage the situation.
 

Mav3rick

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this indeed true rest is upto you to think. I can share videos of economic expert. PTi somehow manage pakistan from bankrupt.

now our remittances higher
reserve are higher

we also manage to bring down CAD to minimum from $20 billion to $2 billion and. now CAD is increasing some says we will be $18 billion by 2022-2023 with this speed even then we would be less $2 billion CAD then pmln but our reserve will also higher than what was in 2018.

Pmln just took loans and kept rupees stable now we have to return those loan with interest. There is no rocket science here.
Professionally I am not an economist but neither is the Finance Minister; incidentally I say that because he is a person who cannot handle his own Bank (Silk Bank) and yet the reigns of Finance for the entire Pakistan were handed over to him. But my friend, it is a myth that we were facing any default or bankruptcy. The caretaker Government did not have the necessary mandate for certain things due to which things got a bit delayed and that's just it.

Our remittances were going to be higher regardless of who was in power as remittances are higher because of lesser travel and FATF due to which we made transfers easy and cracked down on illegal channels of money transfer.

Reserves are higher??? Did we not have reserves hitting 24Billion under PML? And what good are reserves when we are unable to steady the economy or conversion rate to our advantage?

PML did indeed take around 42 Billion in external loans I think (from memory) and serviced 24 Billion in loans (loans taken by previous Governments and current loans)) while growing the GDP at an average of 4.5+........the net increase was 28 Billion I think; PTI has already taken over 43 Billion and serviced 12-13 Billion while growing the GDP at an average of 2.5.........net increase is around 29 Billion already.

The rocket science, which evades many here, is the economic cycle which is impervious to sustained increase in debt with sustained growth since growth means ability to service even more debt. Continue your GDP growth at 4.5+ or more and you can take 4% of your GDP in loans. In simple words, a debt of Rs. 10 for an income of Rs. 200 is sustainable as long as both things grow at the same ratio, debt of Rs. 15 for an income of Rs. 300, debt of Rs. 20 for an income of Rs. 400 and so on. However, when the debt continues to rise and income is in retard or at a much lower level/pace then there is extreme cause to worry......as is the current case of Pakistani Economy.
 

blueazure

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Just goes to show you know Jack $hit about financial system and how it works, I wont be wasting my time on little kids anymore, if you wan to have a discussion complete your education first.

typical PTI troll post

jumping in threads, insulting members , talk gibberish ,

( and having no knowledge ofc )


heck , i can post 50 links from here and there
----------------------

this forum is a gutter thanks to you lot !
Reserves are higher??? Did we not have reserves hitting 24Billion under PML? And what good are reserves when we are unable to steady the economy or conversion rate to our advantage?
meray bhai

PTI walas scream on top of their voices and remind us about our reserves daily

yet they conveniently forget that nearly 50 % of our 'reserves' are liabilities ( aka borrowed money with lien)
 

Mav3rick

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then you should also compare
loan debt
CAD
Reserves
Remittance
Export

This is why i posted above

2013 PAK reserves $24B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B
2013 PAK External Debt $58B
2018 PAK External Debt $92B
2018 Current account deficit $20B
Yes indeed, I am open to comparing of everything.

Waise your post is very incorrect. I don't want to use words stronger than that as I give you the benefit of the doubt that you posted the figures without verification. But let me correct them here:

2013 PAK reserves $24B 13.5B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B 19B
2013 PAK External Debt $58B 64B
2018 PAK External Debt $92B
2018 Current account deficit $20B 18B

So please let's also throw in GDP, growth, Debt Accumulation & Debt Servicing, CAD/CAS, Reserves, Remittances and Export.
meray bhai

PTI walas scream on top of their voices and remind us about our reserves daily

yet they conveniently forget that nearly 50 % of our 'reserves' are liabilities ( aka borrowed money with lien)
I still want to give people the benefit of the doubt as they are not my enemies, they are also just as upset with PML as am I but they have so much blind faith in PTI and specifically the munafiq-e-aala Imran Khan that they believe everything he says.

P.S. The borrowed money is around 30% and 10% is a gift from IMF under their 660 Billion USD grant for struggling economies.
 

Chak Bamu

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When PTI trolls start talking economics, one should just quietly ask them if they know what is GDP & how it is calculated? At that point they just seem to vanish. GDP growth is no joke. It take a lot to grow GDP. If it were that easy, PTI government would be getting somewhere economically. All the hallabaloo about CAD & loans is there only because this is what they pick from twitter PTI accounts & start parroting it everywhere without checking the numbers or economics' reasoning.

International price fluctuations are always there, but in the absence of GDP growth, price spikes really hurt. This is what is happening now.
 

AZ1

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Yes indeed, I am open to comparing of everything.

Waise your post is very incorrect. I don't want to use words stronger than that as I give you the benefit of the doubt that you posted the figures without verification. But let me correct them here:

2013 PAK reserves $24B 13.5B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B 19B
2013 PAK External Debt $58B 64B
2018 PAK External Debt $92B
2018 Current account deficit $20B 18B


So please let's also throw in GDP, growth, Debt Accumulation & Debt Servicing, CAD/CAS, Reserves, Remittances and Export.


I still want to give people the benefit of the doubt as they are not my enemies, they are also just as upset with PML as am I but they have so much blind faith in PTI and specifically the munafiq-e-aala Imran Khan that they believe everything he says.

P.S. The borrowed money is around 30% and 10% is a gift from IMF under their 660 Billion USD grant for struggling economies.
Thank you for correction better to back it with source. let say it's $18 billion deficit left by pmln and pti manage to bring this down to $3 billion that is not a plus point than what is?


2013 PAK reserves $24B 13.5B
2018 PAK Reserves $9B 19B
Could you please let us know the exact foreign reserve by Aug 2018 when PTi govt came in. Because it was continuously depleting that time in millions every week even when PTI came it kept on depleting every week that's why Imran khan rush to saudia, china etc.



2013 PAK External Debt $58B 64B
Let me know what you see in




2018 PAK External Debt $92B

2018 Current account deficit $20B 18B


Please do post comparison of remittances, exports
 
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