What's new

Artillery strikes on Pakistan will only bring good PR. For impact, India needs more Balakots

ZedZeeshan

FULL MEMBER
Feb 23, 2016
637
-1
873
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Arab Emirates
India can flail around like a helpless giant, engaging in pointless artillery duels with Pakistan or increase penalty each time the neighbor crosses the line.

The killing of five Indian Special Forces soldiers by Pakistan Army sponsored terrorists required an Indian military response. But not this. The effect of India’s retaliatory artillery strikes on Pakistan’s behavior is easy to predict: zero, zilch, nada. Though the drone footage of artillery shells falling on (presumably) Pakistani positions might impress India’s WhatsApp warriors, it is not going to change the Pakistan Army’s behavior even an iota.

This is easy to predict, partly because India has done this many times in the past, with no discernible effect. So there is no reason to expect the results this time to be any different. But mostly, it is an easy prediction because its logic appears to be the same as it always was: a publicity stunt to demonstrate that action was being taken rather than a calculated effort to deter future attacks.

Pakistan won’t pause
Artillery attacks are the silliest form of military retaliation because Pakistan can easily reply in the same coin. Maybe Indian attacks will be more precise, or will kill more Pakistani soldiers, but these are marginal considerations for the Pakistan Army. The fact that India destroyed one more bunker than Pakistan did or that it managed to blow up a Pakistan ammunition dump will not even figure in Pakistan Army’s calculations, let alone alter that math. Don’t expect even a pause in the Pakistan Army’s effort to push terrorists into Kashmir.

Artillery and mortar duels across the LoC do not demonstrate Indian military’s superiority but rather a false military equivalence between the two sides. If Pakistan Army’s behavior is any guide, it actually breeds confidence that they can hold their own against India and that Pakistan is militarily as strong as India.

This is actually a lot worse than failing to deter Pakistan because it encourages the neighbour to continue its policy of supporting terror. The overriding impression – and hence the message – of India’s action is that it is unwilling or unable to escalate. This is disappointing because, in the last few years, India appeared to have overcome its traditional fear of escalation, as demonstrated by the surgical strike and the Balakot attack. What is in doubt now is India’s capacity to stay the course. Both those attacks broke the mould: the surgical strike because India openly claimed it, and the Balakot attack because India retaliated inside Pakistan’s territory for the first time.

India needs to continually penalise Pakistan
But occasional attacks like these will not suffice. New Delhi has to be prepared to militarily escalate each time Pakistan tests it. It should be prepared to escalate further if Pakistan responds to its escalation. Even in Balakot, India let Pakistan’s retaliatory attack go unanswered. Although there were some extenuating circumstances: one of India’s pilots had been shot down and was a prisoner and getting him back took precedence. Moreover, India had already undertaken a paradigm-breaking move. Both these factors provided a limited excuse for not escalating further.


New Delhi needs to address this key question: whether it is retaliating for show or effect? Until now, save the surgical strike and Balakot, India’s retaliation has been for show: to simply demonstrate that it was enraged. But it was an impotent rage, a flailing around that Pakistan could safely laugh it off while India suffered. It demonstrated more of India’s helplessness than its strength. Most unfortunately, it appeared to suggest that India’s conventional military superiority was useless in tackling Pakistan’s terror tactics.

The surgical strike and Balakot appeared to be the first step to suggest that India was moving towards retaliation for effect, to demonstrate to Pakistan that it could escalate in a manner that neighbour would not be able to match. Although none of the two attacks went as far as they should have, they at least ended the long-standing myth that any Indian escalation would lead to an uncontrolled action-reaction spiral, all the way to a nuclear exchange.

Looking beyond Balakot

But these strikes needed to be followed up with further action to demonstrate that India has both the capacity and willingness to escalate. New Delhi should have used every serious terrorist attack as an excuse for escalation, and any military response from Pakistan as an excuse for further escalation.

The problem, of course, is that this requires discipline: it takes longer-term planning, careful preparation and calibrated action. Any Indian action would lead to a response. Indian reactions to all possible Pakistani responses need to be prepared prior to any action, even while fully realising that not everything can be predicted or controlled. But a dedicated deterrence strategy and disciplined preparation would give India a much better chance of dealing with the inevitable surprises that are bound to occur with any such enterprise.
Alternatively, India can flail around like a helpless giant, engaging in pointless artillery duels, because as sure as night follows day, we’ll be here again and again.


The author is a professor in International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. Views are personal.

https://theprint.in/opinion/artille...-for-impact-india-needs-more-balakots/400048/
 

BHarwana

MODERATOR
Sep 24, 2016
24,828
20
38,342
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Lol.
Balakot will only bring good PR for Pakistan and demoralize Indian army.

The price of a cup of tea at PA officers mess is Mig21 and if you want tea with biscuits the price is MIG29 and for full lunch it costs SU 30 but Rafale are also accepted.
 

V. Makarov

FULL MEMBER
Nov 22, 2013
864
5
2,606
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
ac0c496cae1c3f53705c7f998e022c56.jpg
 

Mrc

ELITE MEMBER
Dec 19, 2013
10,372
0
12,073
Country
Pakistan
Location
Qatar
Next balakot needs an disproportionate response.

I will go after the whole western a'd Northern aircommands

This fantasy needs to translated into strategic advantage


There are several ways where we excel. We need to use them
 

American Pakistani

ELITE MEMBER
May 30, 2010
15,310
10
22,528
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Pakistan must remember that the best defense is the offense.

Unless pakistan won't kill at least 50 Bharti occupier terrorists per month India will keep killing innocent civilians.
 
Last edited:

IceCold

PDF VETERAN
May 1, 2007
17,750
9
22,117
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Indians thought Pakistan after Balakot would just increase border cross fire, they never in their wildest dreams thought, Pakistan would launch a counter attack in broad day light, take on their mighty MKI and even shot it down while at the same their compounds were being rattled from our strikes. The writer admits that India did not respond to Pakistan counter attack but than goes on to blame those so called extraordinary circumstances. What he forgets to mention is that Pakistan was the one that created those extraordinary circumstances for India by shooting down its jets and taking pilot hostage to its advantage. Not the other way round.
Modi needed a win and he got one at the cost of two jets, a chopper, 6 men killed. MIssion accomplished.
 

Sine Nomine

ELITE MEMBER
Nov 19, 2014
10,069
24
12,696
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Our own response on 27th was weak,it should have been disproportionate,regardless of thinking about counter punch.
Either Bharat would have escalated or pajeets would have stopped chest thumping.
 

SIPRA

ELITE MEMBER
Mar 31, 2019
11,039
3
19,270
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
The writer of the OP article seems to be some Professor of Parrotology, who are found in abundance, in subcontinent, and tell the fortunes of people, through cards, picked up by trained parrots.:lol::lol::lol:

Indians thought Pakistan after Balakot would just increase border cross fire, they never in their wildest dreams thought, Pakistan would launch a counter attack in broad day light, take on their mighty MKI and even shot it down while at the same their compounds were being rattled from our strikes. The writer admits that India did not respond to Pakistan counter attack but than goes on to blame those so called extraordinary circumstances. What he forgets to mention is that Pakistan was the one that created those extraordinary circumstances for India by shooting down its jets and taking pilot hostage to its advantage. Not the other way round.
Modi needed a win and he got one at the cost of two jets, a chopper, 6 men killed. MIssion accomplished.

Perfect analysis.

On which planet these indians live...really?

StuntedGrowth wannabe Strategists feeding the fantasy to the Indians...already high on Indianness!

Or these brilliant Indians planning to bankrupt Pakistan by offering the Tea after Tea....

Never a dull momnet when so much Indianness is around!

On Feb 27, their @$$holes were stuffed with "12 Masaalay ki Chaat". This itch is not going to go away very easily.:lol::lol::lol:
 

American Pakistani

ELITE MEMBER
May 30, 2010
15,310
10
22,528
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Our own response on 27th was weak,it should have been disproportionate,regardless of thinking about counter punch.
Either Bharat would have escalated or pajeets would have stopped chest thumping.
I was of similar opinion before but when I look at it now I realize that it was smart move by IK govt. It made world sympathize towards Pakistan calling India as aggressor, that include their ally Russia. We were in terrible negative light before that and after that world won't stop praising us. That was double victory achieved.
 

Mugen

SENIOR MEMBER
Feb 16, 2018
2,079
0
5,489
Country
Pakistan
Location
Egypt
I was of similar opinion before but when I look at it now I realize that it was smart move by IK govt. It made world sympathize towards Pakistan calling India as aggressor, that include their ally Russia. We were in terrible negative light before that and after that world won't stop praising us. That was double victory achieved.
This maybe true but we gave them a lesson on their weakness free of cost. And we are not doing well on the war of narrative front since then either. We barely made a dent when it comes to Kashmir and their immoral practises, and countless other things they have been doing.

We are decades behind in fifth gen. warfare and Pakistanis are sleeping still.
 
Last edited:

Dr. Strangelove

SENIOR MEMBER
Apr 20, 2011
4,701
7
8,476
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Mazak na Kiya kro LOL ho jata ha. Phir kenty ho Marty boat hain.

main-qimg-eb382898206a8ce6d25468355628c633


0_Moment-India-Air-Force-pilot-is-attacked-by-Pakistan-locals-after-being-shot-down.jpg


I m still waiting Confirmation on those 750 Imaginary Terrorits Injuns killed with their vedic weapons at Balakot. 56 inch Chest only works for domestic consumption on the battlefield aukat yad a jati ha.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom