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Applying Extreme Scenario Analysis to Pakistan's current geo-strategic positioning


Oct 10, 2016
Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds").
The normal application of this technique focuses on likely scenarios in order to understand the usual behavior of any algorithm or strategy. But when you want to understand what would happen if things go wrong completely, you evaluate the outcomes when extreme events happen. These are events which one considers highly unlikely. Why should time be spent in analyzing such events? Because in risk assessment, events have a probability and an impact factor. An event that has very low probability and a very high risk factor MUST be considered in analysis.

Before proceeding further, let us introduce terminology for a core concept: the Bajwa-Khan Traitorship, otherwise abbreviated as BKT. The abbreviation rings of the word 'Bhakt' and encompasses not just Bajwa and Khan, but the entire group of acolytes, yes-men, and advisors who have worked under and along with this traitorous leadership to advance their cause.

The direction for Pakistan's current geo-strategic positioning was set by Imran Khan's effusive 'peace gesture' at the very start of his term. The Pakistan government and army have consistently followed through on similar lines. The opening up of the Kartarpur Corridor, a soft, reconciliatory stance towards India's outright dismissiveness, and a subservient attitude that seeks to normalize and reinforce the Indian narrative of terrorism emanating from Pakistan - these are the hallmarks of BKT. Today, the world sees Pakistan through this lens, and BKT considers this a highlight of their reign and a medal of honor.

The underlying assumptions of this positioning include American support and desire for peace and stability in South Asia, India's anti-Pakistan rhetoric being a farce for local consumption, and a long term desire of Indian leadership for equanimity towards Pakistan. As to the sources for these assumptions, the author can muster only two: clairvoyance or closely held discussions with American and Indian officials.

In this article, we treat the BKT assumptions as respectable and worthy of being considered sane. We then consider the extreme opposite: that America and India want to see Pakistan eliminated from the face of the earth. Where does Pakistan's current geo-strategic positioning place it, if this assumption is held true? It turns out that Pakistan is currently in an extremely precarious situation. And we have recent history as witness to this.

Let us recap the Musharraf-Vajpaye peace overture and the outcome. History records the July 2001 Agra Summit being followed by the Dec 2001 Indian Parliament attack in which Pakistani militants were implicated. Thus, if we are to make history our guiding light, then under the assumptions of our extreme scenario analysis, we are on the cusp of a heinous terrorist attack within India, whose responsibility will be placed upon Pakistan. And this time, Pakistan's enemies will seek to destroy every shred of credibility for Pakistan's desire for peace.

It should be noted that the risk of a false flag operation is there, whether Pakistan clamors for peace or not. But the fallout, if the risk is realized, is exponentially higher when it leads to Pakistan being labeled a hypocrite and untrustworthy nation. A better handling of the situation would have been an outward silence on the issue of relations with India, while using back channel diplomacy to reach a general understanding. And the specific terms of this understanding should have included the public acceptance of Pakistan as a nation that has put terrorism behind its back, which amongst other gestures would involve taking Pakistan out of the FATF grey list. Second, since it was India that refused Musharraf's generous offer for solving the Kashmir issue, it should have been India who takes the lead in publicly extending the hand for peace.

Pakistan's so called educated, intellectual, and liberal civil society and intelligentsia is found clueless on such important national matters. No one seems to put Pakistan's interests first, and puts forward proposals that see Pakistan assuming a position of strength. The impact of the extreme event would be disastrous for Pakistan's image and existence. And thus, the formulation of Pakistan's foreign policy should have taken this possibility into account and positioned us to avoid such an outcome. At best, it highlights the amateurishness of our policy makers. At worst, it reeks of treason to the country.

Let us now consider the fact that governments around the world are aware of Pakistan's positioning and will be performing their own analysis of the current situation. And Pakistani leadership would come across as weak and immature at best. At worst, they would be seen as sycophantish and subservient. In any case, Pakistan is the target of derision and ridicule around the world. Which brings us to the blind-eye effusiveness that creeps up amongst Pakistanis around Feb 27. Feb 27, 2019 was a pre-planned stunt to lull an uneducated, naively nationalistic Pakistani population into a false sense of superiority, while important geo-strategic events unfold that undermine Pakistan's very existence. And it is the BRT stewardship that has the honor of misleading the nation through this time of crisis.

But how extreme are these assumptions? Does America really want to see a nuclear Pakistan emerging on the world map? It should be readily evident that America would not want a nuclear Pakistan. But what about a de-nuclearized Pakistan? Let us look at the American wishlist: acceptance of Qadiyaniat, eradication of Madressahs and Jihad, open acceptance of transgender people and the activities they engage in, and finally acceptance of the entire LGBTQI spectrum. This is the Pakistan which may be palatable to the West. Otherwise, just as Arab nations have been broken up into micro-nations, the world order would seek four different countries that would be easy to manage and influence.

On this anniversary of Feb 27, I hope that my fellow Pakistanis will open up their eyes and acknowledge the crises we are going through. Even if these extreme events never come to pass, we must acknowledge the amateurishness and cluelessness of our leadership, and with one voice, demand better performance. We, the citizens of Pakistan, have the right to not be ridiculed in the world due to the idiocy of our leaders.

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