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America’s fantasy that China will soon collapse like the Soviet Union

LeGenD

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But CN has too many poor ppl and its birth rate is dropping sharply due to economic failures , its a sign of chaos and collapse like USSR :laugh:
Chinese economic growth through the years:



China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty by now:


China does have economic challenges to address but collapse theory is premature:



 

fitpOsitive

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America’s fantasy that China will soon collapse like the Soviet Union did is based on arrogance and ideology, not facts and reason
Tom Fowdy
Tom Fowdy
is a British writer and analyst of politics and international relations with a primary focus on East Asia.
4 Jan, 2021 14:40
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America’s fantasy that China will soon collapse like the Soviet Union did is based on arrogance and ideology, not facts and reason

FILE PHOTO. © Getty Images / Karin Slade
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Washington’s dream that Beijing is doomed to failure seems as strong as ever, despite events of the last year showing that American triumphalism is misplaced, misguided and potentially moribund.


2020 was a year to forget, but it was also immensely geopolitically significant. The outbreak of Covid-19 was a world-changing event which will profoundly alter the globe. Not least because the political shockwaves it created have brought relations between the United States and China to their lowest ebb in modern times.
In what many describe as a “new cold war,” the Trump administration has used its remaining time in office to escalate confrontation with Beijing and forcefully set a legacy for Joe Biden to follow. In setting out this scenario, some in the United States have framed the situation and its risks in very “short termist” thinking. It assumes China only has a short space of time to achieve its goals before, apparently, it becomes economically and socially depleted.
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An article published in Foreign Policy, titled “China Is Both Weak and Dangerous” and covering the book The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State, by American Enterprise Institute’s Dan Blumenthal, argues that China’s political system is weak and lacking in legitimacy. It then proceeds to argue that it is therefore, apparently, ideologically incapable of generating sustained growth or the innovation required to truly become a superpower and “displace” the US. As a result, the piece argues, Beijing only has a short period of time to “accomplish its goals,” thus making it dangerous.
Not surprisingly, I don’t buy into this argument. If anything, I would describe this kind of attitude, which I term “collapsism” as an ideological expression of overconfidence from some within the United States. It is a view which has become endemic since the end of the Cold War in 1991, which simply assumes China must be destined to fail at some point, while America marches on.
This of course is to be expected from the American Enterprise Institute, which, it goes without saying, is a ridiculously neoconservative and pro-war institution, but it nevertheless represents a broader and more misleading set of assumptions in American politics. The idea, perhaps more famously put by Gordon Chang’s “The coming collapse of China” ( 2001), is simply that the Chinese system is doomed to implode because it doesn’t tick the right ideological boxes. If anything, this view risks America being overconfident.
“Collapsism” better known as the “end of history thesis” is a strand of Cold War thinking which assumes that liberal capitalism is the only way to create a successful and stable country. It holds that all other ideologies are fundamentally flawed and cannot truly replicate the success of the West, even if they represent a geopolitical threat. It is an expression of American triumphalism following the collapse of the Soviet Union, based on the premise that in the end the West became more prosperous than the USSR and had outmatched it on innovation.
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Liberalism, having evolved out of Christian thought, has embedded the idea that one’s own “divine destiny” is inevitable and, in the same way, believes western political thought is “the way, the truth, the life.” On top of this, it also holds that only liberalism allows creativity and critical thinking, and, thus, technological success.
You don’t have to read heavy books on international relations to find this view; attitudes towards China are riddled with it. Mike Pompeo once boasted, “The Communist Party knows it can’t match our innovation,” spreading the misleading trope that the only way China can obtain technology is by “stealing” it, and claiming all Chinese students in the US are “sent” to do that. Overall, this is an expression of overconfidence that clouds US foreign-policy making. The idea that if China can be contained quickly and harshly, it can be beaten as its political system is leaning on borrowed time.
Not surprisingly, this view is also endemic in the mainstream media and commentary. When Covid-19 broke out in February, newspapers rushed to frame the outbreak in ideological terms and assumed naively such a catastrophe could never happen in a transparent and progressive society like in the West. This had to be a failure of China’s system. This is obviously a trait of this ideologically driven discourse outlined in ‘The China Nightmare’ and the events of 2020 proved it wrong before it was even published, which shows how short-sighted the analysis is.
First of all, it talks about China’s growth slowing down and facing the “Middle Income Trap”– this is the idea that, like some countries in Latin America, nations reach a certain point then fail to grow further. However, where is the evidence for this happening? China is already passing the middle-income mark and is set to be designated a high income country by 2023.
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It is also projected to become the world’s largest economy by 2028. The reason why many countries failed to surpass the middle-income mark was because of US led capitalism, not in spite of it. Mexico for example, cannot innovate because its economy is completely hegemonized by the US, who dominates its key industries and extracts Mexican talent for itself.
China does not face these problems or pitfalls. It has an increasingly educated workforce, universities which are increasingly competitive globally, a number of “unicorn” startups to rival the US and record levels of foreign direct investment in 2020. Does this really seem like a society “on the brink” with no potential to innovate? The author might want to consider that China has published more scientific papers since 2018 than any other country in the world, and files more intellectual property patents than anyone else too. Not bad for a nation that apparently “steals” everything, right?
Given this, the idea that China is weak and does not have time on its side is one based exclusively on ideology, not facts. Whilst the book highlights upcoming challenges, such as demographic decline, these are treated in a fatalist manner as if China has no way to absolve them, such as encouraging inbound immigration in the way Western nations have done. If anything, last year should have been a stark warning that China’s political system is not easily overcome or contained and, contrary to US hysteria, is not rampaging on a zero-sum path to world domination or to displace the US. This is a neoconservative fantasy which simultaneously believes Beijing is coming for Washington, yet cannot understand why China has not collapsed already.
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As a result, the real danger in US-China ties is the belief that a path of confrontation on Washington’s behalf, as we have seen with Trump, can upend Beijing quickly and affirm US supremacy. Realism is needed, rather than ideological and triumphalist thinking. China’s strategy has involved hedging against American pressure by consolidating more economic agreements and options with others, rather than barging headfirst into a bloodthirsty conflict, that suggests it is a country that is biding its time.
It would be very happy to stabilize its ties with Washington. If anything, American complacency and the belief China can be stabilized, encapsulated by Pompeo’s legacy, is inherently dangerous. Beijing has been written off too quickly many times before, and history does not always repeat itself and run in straight lines, as the US has assumed since 1991.
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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
If Turkey and Russia joined China, then it will death to USA and realignment of Europe to New block.
 

Viva_Viet

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Chinese economic growth through the years:



China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty by now:


China does have economic challenges to address but collapse theory is premature:



Bro, CN economy is growing, but their Living costs are even growing much Fastser, normal Chinese cant buy a small apartment even after working hard for 100 years.

Thats why CN birth rate is dropping sharply like Soviet,

------------
“I cried immediately,” said Hu, 29, who works as a video editor at a social media company. “Nowadays, Shenzhen wants to attract skilled workers. Maybe normal people like me don’t matter to the city anymore.”

Yet the boom has led to the highest property prices and lowest home ownership rates in China, a warning for the country’s other growing cities. The average two-bedroom unit now sells for about $900,000, in a city with per capita income of just $20,000.
 

ChinaToday

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Bcs Trump made a stupid mistake : Cancelled TPP deal and accused VN for money manipulation, so US had to keep buying products from CN, specially during Covid.

Biden realize the problem and remove VN from money manipulation list, it will help more investors can close their factories in CN and flee to VN toi avoid 25% tariff.

Next step, Biden should slap more tariff to laptop, chips, iphones, PPE etc manufacturing in CN, CN surely will got hit hard.:cool:
Why China money keep increasing ?? Bcs Biden are printing more Dollars and give it to u:lol:, u want more ?? Okay Biden have this printing machine :lol:

But CN has too many poor ppl and its birth rate is dropping sharply due to economic failures , its a sign of chaos and collapse like USSR :laugh:
Come on man stop making a fool of yourself , little Vietnam economy not even in the world top 20 talking crap won’t make it to the top Lmao
 

patero

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Chinese economic growth through the years:



China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty by now:


China does have economic challenges to address but collapse theory is premature:



The problem with all of these reports is that they rely on the CCPs official numbers. I can't reference the reports I read [it's pay walled] from a wall street analyst who specialises in China but after drilling down the CCPs own figures contradict the 'headline' numbers they report each year.

But there are very obvious problems with the GDP numbers reported each year by regional authorities. If the CCP mandates a GDP growth number of 6.8%, they invariably report almost that exact number-never less to avoid punishment, and only marginally more on most occassions to avoid having to increasingly fudge the numbers in successive years. By the time the central government aggragates the data, they have had multiple layers of 'over corrections'.

The analogy with the Soviet Union is apt, although they were more obsessed with production output than monetary value. It's looking like China has entered what will likely be a long period of stagnation, much like the Soviet Union. What is going to drive economic growth in China? Demographics are inevitably trending downwards, so it won't be labor inputs. Capital is very shaky, consider China's running current account deficit and the subsequent need to sell over-priced bonds to bring in FDI in a very dangerous balancing act. China's technological advancement has been horribly exposed by US trade sanctions against the likes of Huawei.
 

FuturePAF

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The question today is:
Can USA last another 10 years without bursting its bubbles and going into its worst depression ever?

Don't worry about China or even Russia, both these nations have been ready for quite some time now.

USA is still spending far beyond its ability to pay back its debtors.
The US can sustain itself if it maintains healthy demographics to support the social services and domestic consumer market as well as stays ahead in key technologies. With a rising China, the US will just have a slightly smaller share of the global GDP every year, but along with Allied European and Asian countries the total block will have more than half the world’s GDP, and will be able to keep China in check.

If the BRI raises developing nations to at least the $5000 GDP per capita level and creates a strong trade interdependence, China has a chance along with these nations and strategic deals with the European and Asian nations in America’s block to overcome the US’s global superiority. The US will have to counter BRI with a program of its own if it is to build up interdependencies with the developing nations, and counter Chinese inroads.
 

Viva_Viet

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Come on man stop making a fool of yourself , little Vietnam economy not even in the world top 20 talking crap won’t make it to the top Lmao
Okay, we are little Viet, but CN is still smaller than USSR...yeah, USSR collapsed already.

So, stop believing that CN is too big to fail . CN is still much smaller than USSR with much more poor people.( USSR population was just abt 290 millions while poor Cnese is already 600 millions).

CN also has many problems like USSR, such as birth rate dropping fast due to economic failures, people can't afford to pay for living cost, trade war, cold war against US etc
 
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CAPRICORN-88

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Easier said than done with Its massive deficit spending, debts and rising unemployment, 42% of small and medium businesses permanently closed for good.

USA is only heading one way with its inept leadership under a sleepy President.
760,000 Americans have filed for a record unemployment benefits last month.

Now Biden is still fooling around by trying to be the leader in climate change and possibly a new conflict in the Black Sea.

Good luck. :coffee: :cheers:
 

CAPRICORN-88

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China a USD15 trillion GDP is smaller than Soviet Union.
Soviet Union GDP must be much bigger than USA. :omghaha:

Some Khmer Krom Vietnamese still harping on cold war economics according to Khmer Krom Manga script.

So when will a VC Godzilla riding a flying pink elephant appear? Accompanied by a flock of Black Swan to revive and save the Kampa Kingdom.

:sarcastic: :sarcastic: :sarcastic:
 

hualushui

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Dude, we love Xi ,too. Hes just like fat Kim in NK, just try to act tough when leading the economy to the verge of collapse.

Tks to trade war, tks to "tough" Xi, VN economy suddenly getting better and better due to investors keep coming to avoid trade war:laugh:
Can you only achieve spiritual victory through fantasy? :omghaha: :omghaha: :omghaha:
 

Viet

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I don’t think CN is going to collapse soon. Wang yi just said he will help the new administration of VN to achieve the goal of socialism. I mean seriously he is so convinced he will help us to become a communist paradise.
 

Beast

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The US can sustain itself if it maintains healthy demographics to support the social services and domestic consumer market as well as stays ahead in key technologies. With a rising China, the US will just have a slightly smaller share of the global GDP every year, but along with Allied European and Asian countries the total block will have more than half the world’s GDP, and will be able to keep China in check.

If the BRI raises developing nations to at least the $5000 GDP per capita level and creates a strong trade interdependence, China has a chance along with these nations and strategic deals with the European and Asian nations in America’s block to overcome the US’s global superiority. The US will have to counter BRI with a program of its own if it is to build up interdependencies with the developing nations, and counter Chinese inroads.
You know the edge from american is only printing more notes.

USA is precisely just like Intel corps who lost touch with ever changing reality. The world u know 10 years ago is not the same now. Lacking to innovate, full of themselves and slow to adapt to change. That is why TSMC or even samsung can beat Intel corps.


Apple and Tesla can strived becos they embrace made in China. :enjoy:
 

Zsari

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I don’t think CN is going to collapse soon. Wang yi just said he will help the new administration of VN to achieve the goal of socialism. I mean seriously he is so convinced he will help us to become a communist paradise.
Nope, Wang is just pulling your leg.
 

Zsari

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The problem with all of these reports is that they rely on the CCPs official numbers. I can't reference the reports I read [it's pay walled] from a wall street analyst who specialises in China but after drilling down the CCPs own figures contradict the 'headline' numbers they report each year.

But there are very obvious problems with the GDP numbers reported each year by regional authorities. If the CCP mandates a GDP growth number of 6.8%, they invariably report almost that exact number-never less to avoid punishment, and only marginally more on most occassions to avoid having to increasingly fudge the numbers in successive years. By the time the central government aggragates the data, they have had multiple layers of 'over corrections'.

The analogy with the Soviet Union is apt, although they were more obsessed with production output than monetary value. It's looking like China has entered what will likely be a long period of stagnation, much like the Soviet Union. What is going to drive economic growth in China? Demographics are inevitably trending downwards, so it won't be labor inputs. Capital is very shaky, consider China's running current account deficit and the subsequent need to sell over-priced bonds to bring in FDI in a very dangerous balancing act. China's technological advancement has been horribly exposed by US trade sanctions against the likes of Huawei.
 

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