• Friday, January 24, 2020

A worrisome ‘alliance’!

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by Norwegian, Feb 2, 2015.

  1. Norwegian

    Norwegian ELITE MEMBER

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    [​IMG]
    The writer is a former foreign secretary

    President Barack Obama is fond of making history. He made history in 2008 when he became the first non-white occupant of the White House. He now makes history again as he became the first US president ever to attend India’s Republic Day parade, a Soviet-style jamboree, an annual show of military might long associated with the anti-Americanism of the Cold War. He was on a highly symbolic three-day visit to India, his second in less than two years, again unprecedented in history, where his host, Narendra Modi, was also making history in meeting Obama for the fourth time in just eight months after his election.

    The two leaders met in Washington, DC last September and then again at a G-20 Summit in Australia and at the East Asia Summit in Myanmar, both in November 2014. Obama’s visit also comes less than a year since Washington effectively ended its blacklisting of Modi, who became a persona non grata in the US and the European Union for his role in the killing of more than 2,000 Muslims following deadly communal riots in the western state of Gujarat in 2002 while he was its chief minister. The two leaders with distinct history on their side and inspired by their common ‘humble’ roots, seem to have bonded well, developing a personal equation which was overly visible in Obama’s unprecedented reception on arrival, by Modi, with an exuberant hug, and in the mutual bonhomie one saw when they talked and walked together in the elegant garden at the Hyderabad House where Modi poured a special cup of tea for Obama. No wonder, according to reports, their talks were cordial and productive covering a whole range of bilateral as well as regional and global issues.

    Topping the agenda reportedly were “enhanced military cooperation, bilateral trade, climate change and investments in India’s civilian nuclear sector” on which a deal was struck to break a longstanding impasse over a local law on the liability issue that has long kept foreign nuclear companies from getting involved in the Indian market. Apparently, Modi’s ‘special cup of tea’ worked in extracting Obama’s nod on the deal. Other than a hotline that will now connect Prime Minister Modi and President Obama, one doesn’t see any new groundbreaking outcomes from the Obama-Modi talks. They just agreed to restart negotiations on a pending investment treaty and renewed the 10-year defence treaty signed in 2005. Whatever the worth of these decisions, the two sides were optimistic of their relations moving to “a whole new level”. Obama described the outcome as “powerful symbolism backed by substance”. Elated as they were on their mediocre origins, both Modi, son of a tea-seller and Obama, grandson of a cook, had reason to be euphoric over the outcome of their talks, which they believe will lead to one of the “defining partnerships of the 21st century”.

    What an irony that the world’s two largest democracies are starting a ‘strategic partnership’ under a man of Modi’s controversial credentials and a Nobel Laureate US president, who has been justifying wars to make peace. In a glow of bonhomie, the two partners announced plans to unlock billions of dollars in military and nuclear trade as the bedrock of their alliance. Their Defence Trade Technological Initiative involves massive collaboration in terms of joint ‘pathfinder’ projects, including joint production of drone aircraft and equipment for C-130 military planes, cooperation on aircraft carriers and jet-engine technology and increasing upgrading of their joint military and naval exercises.

    What a solid foundation for global peace and harmony! Obviously, in building up this new alliance, the US has its own priorities as part of its larger China-driven Asian agenda in pursuit of maintaining its worldwide political and economic power. India on its part is seeking to use this partnership for its own ambitions of gaining a global power status. Based on their respective expediencies, both sides are playing on Kautilya’s game plan to cope with what they both see as the spectre of Rising China. The future of this partnership will depend not on the avowed interests of its signatories, but on how other countries in the region, affected by this worrisome alliance, feel compelled to respond.

    Indeed, it is the beginning of another Cold War. The only difference is that this time, India stands on the other side of the pole. The politics of alliances and alignments is back with dangerous implications for peace and security of this region. Actions are bound to provoke reactions. If the turbulent political history of this region had any lessons, the US engagement in this nuclearised region should have been aimed at promoting strategic balance rather than disturbing it. Washington should have been eschewing discriminatory policies in dealing with the India-Pakistan nuclear equation, the only one in the world that grew up in history totally unrelated to the Cold War. But this never happened.

    Instead, the US gave India a country-specific nuclear deal with a carte blanche in the Nuclear Suppliers Group for access to nuclear technology. Any measure that contributes to lowering of the nuclear threshold and fuelling of an arms race between two nuclear-armed neighbours provides no service to the people of this region. A stable nuclear security order is what we need in South Asia. Only non-discriminatory, criteria-based approaches would be sustainable. Preferential treatment to India in terms of nuclear technology not only widens existing security imbalances in the region, but also seriously undermines the prospects of India-Pakistan restraint and stabilisation.

    Unfortunately, principles of equity and justice today are globally non-existent. Of course, Americans are a pragmatic nation. They understand the worth of obliging India on its nuclear ambitions and quest for ‘great power’ status, and will continue to exploit it for their own ends. We in Pakistan have a long history of lessons learnt from similar alliances. We know such alliances never endure and keep changing as the world and its dynamics do by the inevitable process of change inherent in the rise and fall of power. For now, however, there are ominous security implications for this region.

    The international community has an obligation, not only to eschew discriminatory policies in their dealing with the India-Pakistan nuclear equation, but also to take steps that facilitate the prospects of durable peace in this region. Peace in South Asia will remain elusive as long as Kashmir remains under Indian occupation. The world must know that there is but one fair, just, legal and moral solution to Kashmir, which was provided by the UN, and which both India and Pakistan mutually accepted in UN Security Council resolutions.

    Published in The Express Tribune, January 31st, 2015.

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    A worrisome ‘alliance’ – The Express Tribune

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  2. indo

    indo FULL MEMBER

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    I think the author is just overreacting. India's foreign policy has been always based on non alignment and this will continue inspite of who rules India. India is never going to be a pawn of Usa, although it will co operate with USA on mutual intrests.
     
  3. Norwegian

    Norwegian ELITE MEMBER

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    India has been good friends with Soviets in the past and they are now good friends with the US. Mutual interests is the key, something Pakistani foreign policy makers clearly lack.
     
  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA SENIOR MEMBER

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    Honestly other than the bonhomie demonstrated between the leaders, we are yet to understand the fineprint of "breakthroughs" if any... Grossly opaque is the so called defence proposition of the 4 point under pathfinder projects but even more opaque is so called joint cooperation (yes EMALS and jet engine). The news of GE 404/414 hot engine tech with full TOT was doing rounds before the visit and coincided with Kaveri program quite burial. But we did not hear anything at all... EMALS interest is nothing new as for some time even in PDF its been speculated about IN interest for INS Vishaal and may be some F35B thrown in as part of that package. Nuclear deal i dont read too much as unless a plant is getting constructed, the posturing and agreements make no sense to me. When i see GE or westinghouse investments and plan rollout and application for setup then i guess we all can really feel the reality of this breakthrough.

    About India Pakistan and so called discriminatory policies.. i guess ppl or media are yet to really grow up at all... instead of only saying every other foreign power warming up to india and doing some deal and not doing the same with pakistan should not be viewed with biased eyes. Every country has it own agenda at international level with some strengths and weakness. Pakistan also has good relations in fact much better relations with Middle east or saudi.. so should India always crib saying its discriminatory. i guess, the media and authors of such articles should open their mindset a bit.

    Also, one small part where india is a bit ahead is that at this moment the GOI is able to tap diplomatic relations better.. Foreign policy alignment with economic interests is making Indian PM Modi try its best to woo every global leader. I feel thats where MR Sharif and his team is missing a point or two. Other than India RUssia or Pak China, it would be interesting to see how governments in each country moves forward and forge stronger relations. well GOI went ahead with Japan, France, USA, Germany, Australia and UK - all 6 are seriously engaged for economic and trade tieups. But the same effort seems to be missed by Gov of Pak. Proactive approach is needed.. not reactive...
     
  5. DeathInvader

    DeathInvader FULL MEMBER

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    So far the policies implemented by the New Government has been excellent. It's actually being diplomatic.
    Russians are incapable of helping India if there is any bully from its more stronger neighbor, China. India needs friends who already have conflicts with them. The Shift in policy and the swiftness it was implemented should be applauded. But it still has been late and the New Government knows this very well. And the Offensive Defense tactics used by Indians has been effective in keeping threats at bay. The momentum at which this was done and the rate at which this is progressing is marvelous. And definitely this has sounded an alarm to India's not-so well-wishers.
     
  6. Jit

    Jit BANNED

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    Pakistani officials especially the ones that served in their diplomatic corps and foreign service between 1985 and now have developed a common disease - they see that everyone of their concepts goals and strategies invalidated, many a times violently and by their own fellow countrymen; such abject failure in such scales could only be seen last by the leaders of Hitler's Nazi party. Then the leader's took upon themselves to make the idiosyncrasies of a mad racist man sound like global strategy and military mission. Here in Pakstan people like this guy have taken the mad ideology of Islamic jihadis and with or without realizing it, are trying to give if the flavor of geostrategy and politics. They fail to see all they are doing is in the process, making the whole of Pakistan a tool for the jihadi terrorists just like Germany got used as a tool for Nazi terrorists.

    After almost two decades, dont the Pakistan foreign policy makers realize they are wrong, have no role and are simply being used? At this rate the Pakistani government, military and clergy are becoming Undistinguishable from the terrorists they say they are fighting! Having played double cross so long, now they area unable to stop double crossing themselves!
     
  7. Not Sure

    Not Sure BANNED

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    The author appears obsessed with India.

    "Apparently, Modi’s ‘special cup of tea’ worked in extracting Obama’s nod on the deal.
    Other than a hotline that will now connect Prime Minister Modi and President Obama, one doesn’t see any new groundbreaking outcomes from the Obama-Modi talks."

    And because the author has said both the things - That Modi-Obama meet was useless (just a hotline), but it was also very fruitful in nuclear cooperation (and C 130 parts etc.), now whichever way you go, you will end up agreeing with the author :P

    "What a solid foundation for global peace and harmony!"


    When did India or the US declare that Obama is visiting India in his quest for world peace??? Obama and Modi want India and US to get closer, and that's what this visit was all about.

    "If the turbulent political history of this region had any lessons, the US engagement in this nuclearised region should have been aimed at promoting strategic balance rather than disturbing it."


    There the author was worried about global peace, and here he is all about the regional peace... can't decide? :lol:

    "The international community has an obligation, not only to eschew discriminatory policies in their dealing with the India-Pakistan nuclear equation, but also to take steps that facilitate the prospects of durable peace in this region."

    I can't help laughing whenever anyone utters the term "International Community" lol - such a clear reflection of helplessness & frustration. International powers are always looking for those who would man up and be contributing partners, like India, or those who would simply prop themselves up to be used, abused, and discarded, like Pakistan.

    Very entertaining read nonetheless, esp that Kautilya part :devil: :lol:
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2015
  8. wolfschanzze

    wolfschanzze BANNED

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    The whole article does is beat around the bush and arrive at two points 1) whine 'why didn't we get this new technology and Nuclear deal,since we were there allies from a long time".
    Pakistan needs to ask itself, why did USA give India such deals and not to Pakistan and where did it go wrong.
    2)That everything related to peace in South Asia is dependent on Kashmir,atleast be pragmatic in this sense,even China,USA know that Kashmir is a internal issue of India.
    There can be no intervention by any third party nor UN as was agreed by Pakistan when they signed Shimla agreement , during the 1971 Unconditional Surrender.No the world does not think peace and stability is dependent on resolving Kashmir, nor about maintaining parity in Defence,tech or Sciene.India will always be ahead of Pakistan in all fields and thats the truth.

    Pakistan should stop dreaming about Kashmir and instead look at its home,with TTP creating havoc and ISIS at the doors.
    Maybe,USA realizes Pakistan doesn't think strategically,pragamatically on the long term nor does it have any capability left to help in it's goals.Nor is their Economy that good, nor is their Security situation.On the other hand,India looks like a much better destination as a democracy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2015
  9. Norwegian

    Norwegian ELITE MEMBER

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    Some of my fellow countrymen might ask why I tagged Indian members of PDF under this thread. Well, I wanted them to see how amateurish our (former and current) foreign secretaries are :D
     
  10. Bagha

    Bagha FULL MEMBER

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    @Norwegian - Bro India is aligned with anyone , who is good for business.
    We are a infrastructure hungry nation now and those who contributes to it is our friend.
    And Russia and US are required for security hardware purpose.
    After INS Vikramaditya chapter , we got to know that you can't bargain hard if you are overly dependent on one country for defense hardware, hence diversification.
    LOL.:rofl:
     
  11. OrionHunter

    OrionHunter ELITE MEMBER

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    There we go again! Kashmir, Kashmir, Kashmir! A mirage that our Pakistani friends are chasing!

    Indo US military cooperation has more. This agreement, which guides the entire range of military dialogue between the two countries, will enhance the scope of bilateral military exercises, reciprocal visits by military personnel, increased intelligence sharing and maritime cooperation. The focus would not be on just materiel procurement, but on joint development of military technology. The Defence Technology and Trade Initiative, under which the US will transfer to India at least 17 military technologies. That is a game changer.

    This also includes transfers of technology to build the RQ 11 UAVs and the roll-on-roll-off intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance module for the 11 C-130J.

    Other technologies on offer from the US include those for air defence and Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and for advanced electromagnetic aircraft launch systems for carrier-based fighters. The know how to design and build varied UAVs, ground emplacement mine-scattering systems, Big Data cyber systems, warship guns and assorted military helicopters, too are on offer.

    The US government has approved the transfer of BAE Systems M777 155mm/39 calibre light weight howitzers’ entire assembly line from Hattiesburg, Mississippi to India. If eventually agreed, India would become the global assembly, integration and test center for the M777 howitzer.

    India has in principle agreed to sign several protocols which include the Logistics Support Agreement -- otherwise known as the Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement -- the Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum Agreement and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation.

    Whilst the LSA permits the reciprocal use of maintenance, servicing, communications, refueling and medical care facilities to the two militaries, the other two covenants are essential for the transfer of secure and encrypted communication systems aboard US military platforms.

    Quite a bag full of goodies, what?
     
  12. Krate M

    Krate M FULL MEMBER

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    If Obama meeting Modi is alliance, what is Modi meeting Xi jinping, both in India and China in less than a year time? What does Xi meeting Sushma swaraj mean?

    Direct hotline is a good diplomatic result and not something to be scoffed at. Any real results will show up in 6 months time. Already Australia is ready to supply fuel for reactors. Let's see how we deal with other countries.

    For an experienced foreign relations official, the author seems to have taken a very narrow view of this meeting.

    Far less than this has been achieved by lot of "fruitful dialogue" in "warm and welcome atmosphere" when India Pakistan have met. I would rather have 10 such "non-groundbreaking" meetings with such world leaders over 1 fruitful dialogue with Pakistan.

    One thing Modi is doing alright is diplomatic relations. He has taken it to next level. He knows how much such optics matter. This is evident in the heartburn from Pakistan. He invited Obama as chief guest for Republic Day and then sends Sushma swaraj to China very next week.

    Just look at the sheer number of articles on this visit in Pakistani media and on Modi as well. You may start to believe that Modi rules over Pakistan from these articles.
     
  13. utraash

    utraash SENIOR MEMBER

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    Indo-US relations in different league that we don't need to bring Pakistan into this new equation....
    Our paramount importance is to build our economy, defense, maintain good relations with other nation.....
     
  14. anant_s

    anant_s SENIOR MEMBER

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    This issue of creating paranoia over US cuddling up with India has been discussed at great lengths and i don't understand this obsession of certain sections of Pakistani Media and experts over the issue.
    First there have been stories of Russia getting irked and now at some points in article US President is blamed to behave in an irresponsible manner.
    With whatever information available to us, i can tell, US is engaging India as a Democracy and Trade partner first and anything else later. US administration would surely know that just by doling out some reactors or defence hardware, it cannot expect India to become a satellite state to counter China, especially when India has an old alliance with Russia that has done the same for past 50-60 years and the fact that both China and India have mutual trade interests.
    I think where US might expect India to co-operate is on international forums such as WTO talks, Climate and environmental talks and perhaps Political situation in middle east.
    US has its interests in Pakistan and any warming of relations with India, doesn't mean ditching Pakistan. The so called Worrisome Alliance and its implications might just turn out to be Phantom.
     
  15. pursuit of happiness

    pursuit of happiness SENIOR MEMBER

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    --
    was expecting a strategic national outlook than personalised and skewed view on things .
    a person of that caliber know in and out about national interest..
    till india stood on his feet on economical.. ethical ( nulcear proliferation. global responsible nation, role on terrorisam , role in wto etc ) no one cared what india is saying..
    pak establishment was more than happy till 9/11 as US and pak had in line natioanl intresrest so us keep mouth and ear shut for terrorisam in india..
    now us got hit so they suddenly relaised india is saying right.. not for indias intresert but themself..
    --
    1Do pak est have ethical and moral right to call international commnuity being responsible when there are tons of event show that how irresponbile pak is ?

    2.Do pak was not happy till 90s when india had cold ties with usa and pak was getting all they want now tied tunes but diffrence is .. india -us have greater scope ,desgin on asia pacif if not world as whole .

    3. USA need business and world diplomacy and counter of china can any of it pak provide or any other nation in asia ?

    4. Alliance based on mutual intesrest ,
    india
    need them in wto for food secuirty, ipr and other trade .. for defence.. for tech .. for human resource develop.. edu .. etc.. list is on..
    USA..
    need market.. need help in cliamte change discuson with china as both have same strategy .. for trained and cost effetive human reosuece .... use india for there nation intresrt against china .. if possible russia..

    so better focus pak to make stand on its feet .. world come to you..
    all resource are there in pak to be top 3 nation in asia..
    look your policy .. priorities .. respect for contitution...
    kashmir .. made pak cost almost a nation.. still it does..
    how much time .. kashmir is juglar vein and people strat for basic facility of power.. petrol.. governcace.. ?