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A new block going to emerge. US-India-Israel Versus China-Pakistan-Iran Axis

NOWorNEVER

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The Chabahar (Iran), which means four-springs, fiasco for New Delhi was quite in the making. India invested in Chabahar to reach to the market in the Arab world and more significantly, to entail Pakistan in its wings, by keeping an eye from the ‘other’ side and also to counter Gwador-port of Pakistan. India’s betrayal of Iran had long become full-circle, and if a small jog of memory might help, who can forget Iranian foreign minister Javed Zarif dashing to meet India’s then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj on May 13, 2019 1, when India had stopped buying the Iranian oil in the wake of US sanctions on Iran. Sushma Swaraj had then tried to comfort her counterpart that India ‘would see’ once the elections were over. Only six-months later India new foreign minister S Jaishankar was in Tehran, on December 22, 2019, where he disgraced himself by openly expressing his gratitude to Pompeo to have allowed India to resume the stalled work in Chabahar 2 , something which was loathed by Iran 3. Today India stands dropped from Chabahar railway project by Iran 4 . Courtesy: China.

There is a fast changing military preposition in the world today, particularly in the South China sea, where the two giants China-US are into for a confrontation. US is roping into all its allies , including India, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, even UK along with Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia to drub China into its South sea, and there is a growing concentration of US military presence along with its naval exercises, which India had been into from May 2019 5 . India already has a military base in Indonesia which was opened up to keep an eye on the Malacca straits, from where the bulk of Chinese ships pass, and which obviously has then evoked a hard response from China 6 and it is this Malacca straits where the war in zeroing into. India which is nursing the immediate loss of its 15 soldiers in Ladakh is now more likely to play alongside US to choke China into Malacca straits , for which China would obviously make Pakistan, its ally and India’s foe, to scuttle Indian ships at Gwadar, from where Indian goods reach the Arab world. Gwadar and Chbahar are 170 kms apart. 7

It is also learnt that US aircraft military, in the first week of July, for three consecutive days, conducted reconnaissance in China Southern Guangdong , and it was in June when US sent aircrafts near the island of Taiwan 8 ,which prompted China to deploy one of its most powerful 052D destroyer to combat US growing transgressions 9.

destroyer.jpg


China has played the masterstroke and as a counter measure to US belligerence has invited US number-one adversary Iran to start military exercises with it, something which has started the ring alarm bells in New Delhi, as Ram Madhav, the RSS China hawk and the figure behind the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K, has called for as ‘particular concern for India’ 10. China is now to invest 400 billion USD in banking system, ports, railways, telecommunications, weapon developement of Iran apart from and intelligence sharing in exchange to an uninterrupted oil supply from Iran for the next 25 years, which Iran would give at a heavily subsidised rate, has all been enumerated in a 18-page document ( in Persian Language) released from Wizarat-e-Umoor-e-Kharja by its minister Javed Zareef 11 . This single-move is likely to change the political equilibrium in the world as Arab States will now have to choose between US and China, and moreover, what is likely to happen is that the erstwhile Indian project of Chabahar is now very soon to be part of CPEC 12 ! This was all bound to happen as India had stopped buying Iranian oil 13 , on US directives and China had replaced it.

What however, would be worth pondering, is that China has taken this step, keeping in mind that US would implement heavy sanctions on it and would also put sanctions on countries trading with China too, hence China would need to device a new strategy for it, which obviously, is going to finally divide the present uni-polar world into a bipolar China versus the US world. The first for China is to pay to Iran in Yuan and not in Dollars, something which had been its standard practice since 2012. 14 . China, therefore, is planning to seal the fate of Dollar. The Indian rupee is around 10 times lower to Chinese Yuan.

This investment is being labeled as the highest ever in the world from any country, has come, after Iran rock-solid unwavering challenge to US from the last five-decades. It is estimated that it is almost seven-times to what China has sought to invest in CPEC. How fast Iranian economy is to rivet-high can be gauged that China which buys 10 million barrels of crude oil per day 15 is likely to order around half of its supply from Iran, whereas, the fact is that today Iran relies only through selling its oil in the grey market, to counter the sanctions slapped by US after US had scrapped ( in 2018) the nuclear-deal of 2015. 16.

A powerful Iran is to be an anathema to Israel which is right now placed with an order of supply of 50,000 UAV Heron drones from India 17 so as to face China and Pakistan. India, Israel and US are now to be in a block and China-Iran-Pakistan is to make for another. Iran and Israel have historic-issues the same way India has with Pakistan. India claims the whole of Kashmir as its part, half of it is with Pakistan, and China has only in June last signed a 2.4 billion USD of Hydel Power Project with Pakistan in Kashmir of Pakistan side 18 which would make a dam as a part of CPEC. China, thus, is making its presence more and more visible for India which right now is quite trepid in its response as when India takes on Pakistan over its Kashmir it would mean thwarting Chinese interests too.

There were some contestations between Iran and Pakistan over Afghan Taliban who are set to replace US sponsored Ashraf Ghani government. Afghan Taliban are seen as a protégé of Pakistan whose delegations have lately been visiting Iran 19 and this renewed bonhomie led to Iran to provide missiles to Afghan Taliban to bring down US Bombardier E-11A in Ghazni on Jan 28, 2020, which had the mastermind of operation that killed Osama Bin Laden and Qasim Soliemani Michael D’ Andrea on board, which was denied by White House. Andrea was also called as Ayatollah Mike. The death of two US officers Lt. Col. Paul K. Voss, 46, of Yigo, Guam and Capt. Ryan S. Phaneuf, 30, was however confirmed 20 .

India which had of late very deftly irked Pakistan over its Chabahar project by putting its foot on Pakistan’s tail has floundered its chances, its claim to have ‘civilisational-ties’ with Iran were smudged in May last year and what India faces now is a position in a quandary. US had for long isolated Iran and in the wake of COVID-19 wanted to isolate China, has in a way, forced China and Iran to become close. India’s only help is Israel with its ideology and military maneuverability. US does not have a permanent foe or a permanent friend. It only has permanent interests.

The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner. He is also a lawyer based in Lucknow.

https://countercurrents.org/2020/07/us-india-israel-versus-china-pakistan-iran-axis/
 

Figaro

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The Chabahar (Iran), which means four-springs, fiasco for New Delhi was quite in the making. India invested in Chabahar to reach to the market in the Arab world and more significantly, to entail Pakistan in its wings, by keeping an eye from the ‘other’ side and also to counter Gwador-port of Pakistan. India’s betrayal of Iran had long become full-circle, and if a small jog of memory might help, who can forget Iranian foreign minister Javed Zarif dashing to meet India’s then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj on May 13, 2019 1, when India had stopped buying the Iranian oil in the wake of US sanctions on Iran. Sushma Swaraj had then tried to comfort her counterpart that India ‘would see’ once the elections were over. Only six-months later India new foreign minister S Jaishankar was in Tehran, on December 22, 2019, where he disgraced himself by openly expressing his gratitude to Pompeo to have allowed India to resume the stalled work in Chabahar 2 , something which was loathed by Iran 3. Today India stands dropped from Chabahar railway project by Iran 4 . Courtesy: China.

There is a fast changing military preposition in the world today, particularly in the South China sea, where the two giants China-US are into for a confrontation. US is roping into all its allies , including India, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, even UK along with Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia to drub China into its South sea, and there is a growing concentration of US military presence along with its naval exercises, which India had been into from May 2019 5 . India already has a military base in Indonesia which was opened up to keep an eye on the Malacca straits, from where the bulk of Chinese ships pass, and which obviously has then evoked a hard response from China 6 and it is this Malacca straits where the war in zeroing into. India which is nursing the immediate loss of its 15 soldiers in Ladakh is now more likely to play alongside US to choke China into Malacca straits , for which China would obviously make Pakistan, its ally and India’s foe, to scuttle Indian ships at Gwadar, from where Indian goods reach the Arab world. Gwadar and Chbahar are 170 kms apart. 7

It is also learnt that US aircraft military, in the first week of July, for three consecutive days, conducted reconnaissance in China Southern Guangdong , and it was in June when US sent aircrafts near the island of Taiwan 8 ,which prompted China to deploy one of its most powerful 052D destroyer to combat US growing transgressions 9.

destroyer.jpg


China has played the masterstroke and as a counter measure to US belligerence has invited US number-one adversary Iran to start military exercises with it, something which has started the ring alarm bells in New Delhi, as Ram Madhav, the RSS China hawk and the figure behind the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K, has called for as ‘particular concern for India’ 10. China is now to invest 400 billion USD in banking system, ports, railways, telecommunications, weapon developement of Iran apart from and intelligence sharing in exchange to an uninterrupted oil supply from Iran for the next 25 years, which Iran would give at a heavily subsidised rate, has all been enumerated in a 18-page document ( in Persian Language) released from Wizarat-e-Umoor-e-Kharja by its minister Javed Zareef 11 . This single-move is likely to change the political equilibrium in the world as Arab States will now have to choose between US and China, and moreover, what is likely to happen is that the erstwhile Indian project of Chabahar is now very soon to be part of CPEC 12 ! This was all bound to happen as India had stopped buying Iranian oil 13 , on US directives and China had replaced it.

What however, would be worth pondering, is that China has taken this step, keeping in mind that US would implement heavy sanctions on it and would also put sanctions on countries trading with China too, hence China would need to device a new strategy for it, which obviously, is going to finally divide the present uni-polar world into a bipolar China versus the US world. The first for China is to pay to Iran in Yuan and not in Dollars, something which had been its standard practice since 2012. 14 . China, therefore, is planning to seal the fate of Dollar. The Indian rupee is around 10 times lower to Chinese Yuan.

This investment is being labeled as the highest ever in the world from any country, has come, after Iran rock-solid unwavering challenge to US from the last five-decades. It is estimated that it is almost seven-times to what China has sought to invest in CPEC. How fast Iranian economy is to rivet-high can be gauged that China which buys 10 million barrels of crude oil per day 15 is likely to order around half of its supply from Iran, whereas, the fact is that today Iran relies only through selling its oil in the grey market, to counter the sanctions slapped by US after US had scrapped ( in 2018) the nuclear-deal of 2015. 16.

A powerful Iran is to be an anathema to Israel which is right now placed with an order of supply of 50,000 UAV Heron drones from India 17 so as to face China and Pakistan. India, Israel and US are now to be in a block and China-Iran-Pakistan is to make for another. Iran and Israel have historic-issues the same way India has with Pakistan. India claims the whole of Kashmir as its part, half of it is with Pakistan, and China has only in June last signed a 2.4 billion USD of Hydel Power Project with Pakistan in Kashmir of Pakistan side 18 which would make a dam as a part of CPEC. China, thus, is making its presence more and more visible for India which right now is quite trepid in its response as when India takes on Pakistan over its Kashmir it would mean thwarting Chinese interests too.

There were some contestations between Iran and Pakistan over Afghan Taliban who are set to replace US sponsored Ashraf Ghani government. Afghan Taliban are seen as a protégé of Pakistan whose delegations have lately been visiting Iran 19 and this renewed bonhomie led to Iran to provide missiles to Afghan Taliban to bring down US Bombardier E-11A in Ghazni on Jan 28, 2020, which had the mastermind of operation that killed Osama Bin Laden and Qasim Soliemani Michael D’ Andrea on board, which was denied by White House. Andrea was also called as Ayatollah Mike. The death of two US officers Lt. Col. Paul K. Voss, 46, of Yigo, Guam and Capt. Ryan S. Phaneuf, 30, was however confirmed 20 .

India which had of late very deftly irked Pakistan over its Chabahar project by putting its foot on Pakistan’s tail has floundered its chances, its claim to have ‘civilisational-ties’ with Iran were smudged in May last year and what India faces now is a position in a quandary. US had for long isolated Iran and in the wake of COVID-19 wanted to isolate China, has in a way, forced China and Iran to become close. India’s only help is Israel with its ideology and military maneuverability. US does not have a permanent foe or a permanent friend. It only has permanent interests.

The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner. He is also a lawyer based in Lucknow.

https://countercurrents.org/2020/07/us-india-israel-versus-china-pakistan-iran-axis/
I doubt it ... China has a pretty strong relationship with Israel. India and Iran are on pretty good terms as well.
 

IceCold

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I already mentioned this on thread Iran drops India from rail project that there will be a new nexus formed. We will have Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran on one side, US, India and Israel (because of Iran) on the other. Turkey may also join the China Pakistan nexus.
 

Longhorn

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I doubt it ... China has a pretty strong relationship with Israel. India and Iran are on pretty good terms as well.
A week is a long time in politics.

I already mentioned this on thread Iran drops India from rail project that there will be a new nexus formed. We will have Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran on one side, US, India and Israel (because of Iran) on the other. Turkey may also join the China Pakistan nexus.
I predicted this a few weeks ago on a different thread and got shot down by an Indian poster.
 

NOWorNEVER

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India and Iran are on pretty good terms as well.
But for how long this so called good terms will continue. India's betrayed to Iran has exposed when India stopped import of Oil from Iran and give business to her foe Saudi Arabia. Iran was waiting for the opportunity which China has now provided with her massive $400 billions 25 years investment deal. Two sword cannot be in one sheath, so the useless/unreliable sword (India) have to be thrown out. Just compare $400 MILLIONS investment by unreliable partner India vs $400 BILLIONS Investment by proven reliable partner China. Iran is now backing BRI and CPEC after kicking India out.

The relations between Israel and China may have been improved, but after China Iran deal, the questions have now been raised by Israeli media that after the China-Iran deal, why is Israel still working with Beijing?
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/after...y-is-israel-still-working-with-beijing-635342
Israel cannot even exist without the support of US. The USA has been the biggest financier for Israel since the 1950s, taking this role from Israel's "mother-in-law" UK. Since that, the USA has very much took care of its 52th state. As has supported it pretty much more than the UK ever done. Militarily and Economically, Israel is heavily dependent on the funds it receives from the USA. American trade shapes a big part of the Israeli economy, so USA is very imperative for Israel. Again, Two sword cannot be in one sheath AND Israel cannot afford this relationship with China.
 

LeGenD

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These are propositions - nothing concrete (or biting).

Do people even understand the consequences of such propositions?

And what happens after that? Will the members of a bloc become invincible or something? Will the members of a bloc suddenly have magic solutions for numerous problems afterwards? Problems with the Western hemisphere in particular?

USSR encompassed 16 Soviet Socialist Republics. Do not forget this.

American bloc-forming options are not just limited to India and Israel - many countries can join the bandwagon depending upon what they offer to some. These so-called observers are sleeping or something.

Recall Obama administration's Pivot-to-Asia proposition? It was a stuff-of-nightmares for China. Multiple countries were on board (even paperwork was almost complete), but Trump administration was not interested. However, Trump administration will not last forever.

Establish a bloc and then see the other side do something about it. This is what happens in a COLD WAR, and it becomes really ugly for numerous countries involved.

My take is that the world is becoming multi-polar again with the added caveat of several big players in the field this time. Some of the vulnerable countries have 'options' to consider now - to find an anchor for sustainability in one of the big players in the field for long-term basis.

If a bloc is to be formed, it should be from sustainability standpoint, and not to fight an unwinnable war which will bankrupt economies instead.

I already mentioned this on thread Iran drops India from rail project that there will be a new nexus formed. We will have Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran on one side, US, India and Israel (because of Iran) on the other. Turkey may also join the China Pakistan nexus.
Bro,

You overlooked following considerations:

1. Russia have bilateral relations with India.
2. China have bilateral relations with Israel.
3. Turkey is still in NATO.
 

Mamluk

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1. Russia have bilateral relations with India.
2. China have bilateral relations with Israel.
3. Turkey is still in NATO.

Exactly. Blocks don't make sense. Russia values it's relation with India. Chinese have good relation with Israel (though Israel is cautious about China's rise).
 

Village life

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Nop, Indian Banya is not fool he will never ally to US to protect their interests in region most likely scenario could be a settlement with China through Russia ,
 

Nike

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These are propositions - nothing concrete (or biting).

Do people even understand the consequences of such propositions?

And what happens after that? Will the members of a bloc become invincible or something? Will the members of a bloc suddenly have magic solutions for numerous problems afterwards? Problems with the Western hemisphere in particular?

USSR encompassed 16 Soviet Socialist Republics. Do not forget this.

American bloc-forming options are not just limited to India and Israel - many countries can join the bandwagon depending upon what they offer to some. These so-called observers are sleeping or something.

Recall Obama administration's Pivot-to-Asia proposition? It was a stuff-of-nightmares for China. Multiple countries were on board (even paperwork was almost complete), but Trump administration was not interested. However, Trump administration will not last forever.

Establish a bloc and then see the other side do something about it. This is what happens in a COLD WAR, and it becomes really ugly for numerous countries involved.

My take is that the world is becoming multi-polar again with the added caveat of several big players in the field this time. Some of the vulnerable countries have 'options' to consider now - to find an anchor for sustainability in one of the big players in the field for long-term basis.

If a bloc is to be formed, it should be from sustainability standpoint, and not to fight an unwinnable war which will bankrupt economies instead.

I already mentioned this on thread Iran drops India from rail project that there will be a new nexus formed. We will have Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran on one side, US, India and Israel (because of Iran) on the other. Turkey may also join the China Pakistan nexus.
Bro,

You overlooked following considerations:

1. Russia have bilateral relations with India.
2. China have bilateral relations with Israel.
3. Turkey is still in NATO.

Israel will not ditch USA, her largest donor and backer for decades over China who frequently backing her enemies like Iran, Syria and several movements in middle east. Not to mention, Jewish lobby like AIPAC is had deep roots within US politics, they will not abandon them for folly adventure.

China in the play of foreign politics is more like Nouveau rich, they just can't throw money away to bought loyalty from friendly countries, the US is clearly more adept in this kind of playing games
 

kongn

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Pakistan can't enter a bloc with iran because the saudis and emiratis will pull the plug on the pakistani economy both on pending loans as well as expelling all workers. Niazi will again be 'summoned'.
 

IceCold

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Bro,

You overlooked following considerations:

1. Russia have bilateral relations with India.
2. China have bilateral relations with Israel.
3. Turkey is still in NATO.
Can I start with point 3, Turkey has been kicked out of F-35 project, France is regularly standing with Greece which is the opposing end of Turkey as is Germany, i am not sure how long Turkey would stay in NATO but chances are slimming down every day.
China has bilateral relations with Israel but that does not stop Israel from going against Iran. Russia has bilateral relations with Israel as well, did it stop Israel from hitting Syria and even destroying Russian assets?
Russia has bilateral relations with India but we have seen how India has firmly hedge its bets on US and the bear isnt happy about it. They have already showed their annoyance by warming up to Pakistan. Let me make a prediction right here and when it happens if anyone remembers can quote me, India will also get out of the S-400 deal just as it did with the FGFA project. India is getting firmly in US camp and it is only a matter of time. Remember there are no permanent friends but only permanent interests.
 

donkeykong

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Russia and china alpng with original shanghai five is a pact. The sco was going to be the new anti nato until we let india in (russia thought letting india in will finally cause india to stop sucking up to its anglo saxon masters) but that was a wasted effort as india cant change old habits.
 

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