• Tuesday, August 20, 2019

A former official casts doubt on India’s GDP figures

Discussion in 'Central & South Asia' started by beijingwalker, Jun 14, 2019.

  1. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker ELITE MEMBER

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    A former official casts doubt on India’s GDP figures

    Jun 15th 2019

    Almost two years ago Arvind Subramanian, then India’s chief economic adviser, published a little-noticed passage in the finance ministry’s annual economic survey. The previous two years posed a “puzzle”, he wrote. India had reported miracle growth in gdp (averaging 7.5%) despite miserable growth in investment, exports and credit. He looked for comparable examples elsewhere since 1991. He found none. No country had grown faster than 7% in such circumstances. None, in fact, had grown faster than 5%. India’s rapid expansion, he warned, might be hard to sustain.

    Or, indeed, hard to believe. Mr Subramanian’s official position meant he could not say that loudly then. But he is saying it now. In a paper published by Harvard University, where he is a visiting fellow, he argues that India’s growth figures have been greatly overstated. From the 2011-12 fiscal year to 2016-17, its economy officially expanded by about 7% a year, eventually outpacing China’s to become the fastest-growing big economy. That boast has helped entice over $350bn of foreign investment in the past seven years. But India’s true growth, Mr Subramanian thinks, is more like 4.5%. Rather than outperforming China, India has underperformed Indonesia.

    https://www.economist.com/finance-a...er-official-casts-doubt-on-indias-gdp-figures
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
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  2. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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  3. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker ELITE MEMBER

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    [​IMG]
     
  4. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri ELITE MEMBER

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    https://www.businesstoday.in/curren...ent-point-by-point-rebuttal/story/355507.html

    The economist has also often referenced lot of economists doubting China's growth figures....saying they are as low as 4% even in "reality".

    The point is very few actually look at such things like the MCA database change....and how that reflects in the context of maunfacturing companies (which A. Subramanian has chosen his full analysis scope on) registering under services category.

    In fact not one part of his "analysis" even looked at Services sector growth either. His whole premise is flawed and will be given point by point rebuttal by the EAC.

    Mind you he has also said every developing countries GDP growth is inflated more or less (if his analysis is used)... his is basically a matter of perspective (he wants GDP growth to fully be weighted to manufacturing and factor cost), so basically he has an issue with the global IMF SNA system entirely which uses total GVA and no sector-specific over-weight.
     
  5. letsrock

    letsrock FULL MEMBER

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    Really? "the whole premise" is flawed? he said nothing of the sort you claim here to have been said. It is your hyperactive bhakth brain misleading you. He didnt say not to use GVA, he didnt say GDP growth to be be fully weighted to manufacturing and facto cost(whatever that means). He picked up 16 or 17 common factors of consumption (which includes services by the way just read up )and correlated with growth and found a vast discrepancy. what "services" bull$hit. If a country like India which has extremely low per capita consumption of basic materials is growing then wont consumption of those basic materials grow as they are so deficit ?Are you saying instead of adding electricity or petrol the indian consumer is vastly spending on apps and games ? The delusions of yours. But he did include services such as credit.
     
  6. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri ELITE MEMBER

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    Hey false flagging scumbrain with no life..... people can pick and choose "factors" as well to get some narrative they want all day long. Question always is, is it the actual accurate snapshot according to what the actual hard data of liquidity flow is showing (in things like tax streams, commerce and logistics databases and market cap).

    The fact he specifically left out energy consumption and tax revenue (since this would bypass anything to do with manufacturing/service categorisation issue in MCA) says a huge lot....given they are far more macro-representative than picking and choosing some manufacturing trends (that too across significant base year levels)...given manufacturing only represents at best maybe a quarter of indian economy. Did he respectively pick say 3 service trends out of every 4 in total? Nope...he made it almost 90% manufacturing based. It is YOU that didn't actually read his "analysis".

    India simply would not have shown what it has shown in energy consumption growth, tax revenue growth and market cap growth if it were off by as significant as 2.5%. It would effectively mean going back to factor cost computation simply to keep the older non-IMF standard statistical system with less economic sector update (whole point of moving to MCA) in place. It was the choice of UPA govt to move to IMF SNA 2008....and correct decision given these days:

    a) we like to compare growth rates between countries expecting same standards in play in both
    b) The increasing fuzzy delineation between manufacturing and services w.r.t economic tabulation

    This will all show up in the rebuttal coming up which you can then cry about then. Its obvious some lefty group gave him a little bonus or hes looking for a better job than he currently has.

    But kudos to him for putting the buck with the UPA for changing the system in first place....lot of people missed out that he put it above the political fray.
     
  7. beijingwalker

    beijingwalker ELITE MEMBER

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    In China you see growth on the ground, in India you see growth on paper.
     
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  8. letsrock

    letsrock FULL MEMBER

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    Look marbles in mouth bhakth. You made a lot of claims before that he said this and he said that when that turned out to be bluff you are coming back flinging some other bombastic stuff and hoping others would be intimiditated. You need understand not all people are your dalits to be initimidated and infact it has the opposite effect of you been exposed as a clown on international setting.
    He did not leave out energy in fact he compared two specific energy components of electricity and petrol saying he left out shows that you havent bothered to read anything, relied on some bhakth commentary somewhere and came flinging here to be laughed at like a clown you are. No matter how many elections you win your Modi will always be a kasai and you will always be clowns. He noted that petrol pricing is not in india's hands and petrol prices came rapidly after 2014 so one cant be confident that any increase was simply due to pricing rather than consistent improvement in economic activity. which ofcourse is true. Regarding electricity consumption he noted that there were policy compulsions of pushing electricity usage through connections to every house which distorted the market. but 11 of 17 showed negative correlation including services such as credit.
     
  9. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri ELITE MEMBER

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    Garbled nonsense yet again ^^^ .... wont bother to read.

    For those interested, can watch:

     
  10. letsrock

    letsrock FULL MEMBER

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    hahaha you gave up and decided to fling a video on to the forum after a google search. bhaktard.