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$31bn exports, $32bn remittances and Rs6trn revenue likely in full 2021-22: Govt expects 5pc growth in 2HFY22

That Guy

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lets try bankruptcy once may be we have 0 loans after that :D
I know you're joking, but foreign companies will start taking over Pakistani assets across the world. Every deal Pakistan has signed will be thrown in the trash. Pakistan's poverty rate will become unbearable, and the price of everything with become far worse, as hyperinflation may set in.
 

HammerHead081

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i want to test imran khan but corona ne kam kharab ker diya now he can say covid did not let me work
There is no doubt Imran Khan has made some awful decision in terms of choosing ministers (Buzdar) and bending over backwards for Taliban and TLP.

But he is correcting our economic indicators to say the least and growing the economy despite it massively weakening due to the robbery done by last government.
 

Ali_Baba

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The one area where this horde of people could be leveraged is services possibly. Our useless governments, including IK's PTI, cannot even get the services industry right by training and putting this massive population to work.

It will take 2 or 3 more elections won by the PTI to fix the "direction" of travel in the mess that PPP and PML created let alone get anywhere close to Bangladesh right now - let alone Turkey.

Service industry will take a decade to fix - PTI has made the right moves by creating tech parks, increasing STEM university participation and moving to fix the BSc degree issue(though the PPP yaya's in Sindh are resisting ... ).
 

Menace2Society

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Are these people serious? $31B with a population of 210M people is a stretch goal for these buffoons?? The famous Urdu idiom "chullu bhar paani mey doob maro" (we should die of shame) comes to mind. One of the most horrendous examples of under-utilized manpower in the history of mankind! Turkey, with 84M people, has exports worth $225B this past year!! Let's take stock of that. It is criminal that these bastards who have ruled Pakistan have left an army of uneducated, impoverished masses that do nothing but procreate.

The one area where this horde of people could be leveraged is services possibly. Our useless governments, including IK's PTI, cannot even get the services industry right by training and putting this massive population to work.

Its not the politics but the useless nature of policies and wastage that bothers ones mind about the ongoings in Pakistan.

A country this size should have giant manufacturing plants for electronics, machinery, heavy industry. Exports should be well above $250 billion. Saying this is under performing is too kind, this is decades of factory owners controlling the current account of the country for their own personal gain. No wonder some Pakistani politicans are richer than Pakistan, with zero debt and max profits. Do you think they run their personal finances like they have done the country? :lol:
 

Imran Khan

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Zero loans & zero credit & zero credibility globally
پہلے کونسا ہمارے وزیر اعظم کو دیکھ کر ورلڈ کمیونٹی پھولوں کے ہار لے آتے ہیں یا ہوائی فائرنگ کرنے لگتے ہیں ہماری کریڈیبیلٹی پہلے بھی نیگیٹیو 200 ہے :rofl:
I know you're joking, but foreign companies will start taking over Pakistani assets across the world. Every deal Pakistan has signed will be thrown in the trash. Pakistan's poverty rate will become unbearable, and the price of everything with become far worse, as hyperinflation may set in.

as i know we have 2 hotels and one junk airline . they can take it
 

Meengla

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It will take 2 or 3 more elections won by the PTI to fix the "direction" of travel in the mess that PPP and PML created let alone get anywhere close to Bangladesh right now - let alone Turkey.
Service industry will take a decade to fix - PTI has made the right moves by creating tech parks, increasing STEM university participation and moving to fix the BSc degree issue(though the PPP yaya's in Sindh are resisting ... ).

Good post.
I don't think there is much choice left but to stick with the current govt for at least 2-3 more election cycles BUT making sure the govt doesn't get too complacent. Perform or perish!
Changes have been happening in Pakistan. My family is in textile business in Karachi and from the chatter I hear there IS at least some fears about 'living above means' scrutiny or hiding profit/income, in addition to Non-Payer bank accounts penalized, plus there are fears caught electricity theft. NOT saying my family is doing illegal things but telling about growing level of accountability in Pakistan, however slowly it maybe.
Political stability is must. THAT'S where BD has succeeded. Plus no wars--Pakistan has been a 'security state' throughout its history and trying to punch above its weight and that in my opinion is the root cause of most of Pakistan's problems.
PS. A You Tube Vlogger Makhdoom Shahabuddin, who is generally more credible than many other bloggers, in a recent video claimed that China has assured to pay all of Pakistan's $120 billion (basically assuming the loans) if push comes to shove. Don't know how true is that.
 

ziaulislam

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$31bn exports, $32bn remittances and Rs6trn revenue likely in full 2021-22: Govt expects 5pc growth in 2HFY22
  • 'Year 2021 - Resilient now ever!', the Finance Division said while issuing performance report of year 2021
Press Release Updated 01 Jan 2022
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ISLAMABAD: The Finance Division said it is expecting the growth to stay at five percent, exports $31 billion as well as remittances $32 billion and tax collection of Rs6 trillion besides reduction in trade deficit to reduce in second half of fiscal year 2022.
While issuing performance report of year 2021 on Friday, the Finance Division said that “Year 2021 - Resilient now ever!”
Sustainability: Pakistan boom-bust lifecycle appears cyclical than sustainable in past. This is reflected from past global commodity, political or economic shocks of 1998, 2009, & 2018, where economy got busted in very short interval of time
Unlike past, PTI government has managed to bring the sustainability to macroeconomics. Despite the most devastating health and Economic Shocks of century, ie, Covid-19 and recent multi decade high-price commodity shock, Pakistan economy has displayed the greatest resilience, which is unprecedented in the 74-year history of Pakistan.
Pakistan’s macroeconomic performance was widely accepted by all international macro-economic Financial Institutions (Including IMF, World Bank, ADB, Moody’s, S&P and Fitch etc.)
The government’s response to the pandemic has been widely acclaimed and recognised. According to The Economist, Pakistan has been ranked number 1 in the ‘Economists’ world normalcy index as the country has lifted most of its Covid-19 restrictions imposed to curb the virus spread.
Energy items: there’s no reduction in trade deficit intensity
The Economist normalcy index offers some evidence about how people are responding to restrictions in real-time. Pakistan is followed by Nigeria, Britain & Germany on the list which was updated on November 5, 2021
Pakistan has rolled out the largest social safety net in Pakistan’s history. According to World Bank report “global social protection responses to Covid-19” (May-2021) Pakistan ranks 4th globally in terms of the number of people covered and 3rd globally in terms of the percentage of population covered amongst those that covered over 100 million people; the World Bank has stated that only few countries have attained impressive six-digit levels in this regard. Pakistan’s Ehsaas Emergency Cash is one of them.
Response to Covid: It is important to note that, Pakistan’s response to COVID is most effective and timely than rest of the world, despite the fiscal constraints. The Vision of Prime Minister Imran Khan of implementing the smart lockdown is the most appropriate, which allowed the economy to grow. Followings initiatives provided by PTI government & SBP for the relief of the masses.
A fiscal relief package of Rs1,240bn to provide relief to neutralize the socioeconomic impact of Covid-19.
Overall Rs2,073bn relief package by SBP
Introduced Running Finance Facility for Hospitals and new Industrial Investments (TERF)
Introduced Rozgar Scheme to prevent layoffs by financing wages and salaries of employees
Provided relief for loan restructuring to borrowers
SBP reduced the policy rate by 625bps
Electricity bill concessions Rupees 46 billion and to SMEs Rupees 50.6 billion
Reduction in winter tariffs @11.97/kWh & @12.96/kWh in 2020 & 2021
Relief to 8mn families under Ehsaas program from 3.7mn before PTI government
Total release of Rs232 funds under Ehsaas program in 2021 from Rupees 102 billion in 2014
106bn under Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar, low-cost housing scheme loans have been approved by banks
Growth: Importantly, economy performed above expectations; GDP growth 4%, tax collection exceeded above targets, reserves improved, current account reported lowest since 2011
Target surpassed: Nov tax collection reaches Rs476bn mark
The key to note that this growth was achieved when rest of the world was encountering massive output contraction. India (-8%), UK (-10%), USA (-3.7%), Iran (-6.5%)
While Pakistan growth was broad-based. Against 2.1% target the growth came in at 3.94%.
Agriculture at 2.77%, Industry 3.57%, and Services at 4.43%
It is pertinent to note that record bumper crops witnessed in 2021 and the trend likely to continue next year as well
Rice came in at 8.4 million tons (last year 7.4mn tons), Maize 8.5 million tons (last year 7.9 million tons), wheat 27.5 million tons (last year 25.2 million tons), cotton 7.1 million bales (last year 9.1 million bales)
In 2022, sugarcane is expected at 87.7 million tons, wheat 28.9 million tons, and Rice 8.8 million tons.
Corporate Sector:
Interest rates remained lower for most of the year at 7%, which gave impetus to private sector
Aggregate profit after tax of KSE-100 in 3Q of 2021 is reported at Rupee 258 billion. The Highest in the last 10 years
The growth is broad based, corporate sector has posted the record profitability of Rupees 929 billion in FY21, up from Rupee 587 billion in 2018
Overall, 247% growth in companies’ incorporation (69,380 companies during July-2018 to Dec-21 reported, compared to 19,996 companies in the last three years of PMLN government)
44% of total 157,000 companies registered in Pakistan incorporated in the PTI’s 3 years
Sector wise, Real Estate (494%), IT Sector (194%), & Tourism (136%) growth witnessed from 2018-21
Record number of 19 IPO’s worth Rupee 85 billion executed in the last three year
External Sector: Remittances and exports are above than pre-Covid level of 2019-20. This in turn, current account deficit posted 10 years low of US$1.9bn in FY21
Exports of Goods came in at $25.6bn, up 14% higher in FY21.
First time in the last ten years, exports indicators are looking promising and the average monthly exports now targeting US$3bn from US$2bn as in PMLN time
Jul-Nov remittances post 10pc growth YoY
Exports of services are another area where significant improvements have been witnessed. Services exports in FY21 also increased by 10% to US$5.9bn
IT sector exports have doubled from PML-N time and expected to reach US$3.5bn to US$4bn, up 300% by the end of this government’s term
While remittances have piled up to record level to US$29.4bn, from US$23.1bn year earlier
The other hallmark of PTI government in its three years was the contraction of unnecessary imports and imports substitution. However, recent commodity price shock has jacked up the imports
As per our analysis, the 80-85% of import surge is due to price affect and 15-20% is quantitative in line with economic growth
Recent policy actions are already fetching results and import growth is expected to slow down. Moreover, given the better-than-expected agriculture crop outlook, the food import will be curtailed.
Fiscal: Federal taxes registered a record growth in FY21 and came almost Rupee one trillion more than 2018 level at Rupee 4,764 billion
Similarly, the growth in non-tax revenue has witnessed a massive increase to Rs1,630 billion
Overall, the deficit situation has improved to 7.1% of GDP from 8.1% in FY20
The primary balance is also contained to 1.4% from 1.8% of GDP year earlier
This year tax situation is even better than last year and Pakistan is likely to post Rs6 trillion tax target and more than Rupee 1,200 billion in a single year
So far due to excellent tax collection the primary balance has reported a surplus of Rupee 206 billion in the first four month of current fiscal year
Inflation: Following Budget FY22, global commodity prices surged to unprecedented levels, triggering pressure on currencies and pushing higher inflation around the world
•As per FAO world food prices climbed 27%, 10-year peak
•CRB Index climbed 37.67% year-over-year
•Bloomberg Commodity index increased 28.4% in a year
•USA CPI climbed by 6.8% in November, the fastest pace since 1982
•German Inflation at 5.2% in November, highest rate since June 1992
•UK 10-Year high inflation witnessed at 5.1%
•China factory inflation is at 26 years high at 12.9%
•India WPI hits record high at 14.23%
•CPI in Pakistan cloaked in at 11.5% in November 2021, while it is interesting to note that recently the price of food is witnessing a significant decline, onions down 25% YoY, Pulse Moong 25%, Tomatoes 17%, Eggs 10%, Chicken 10% and Potatoes 8% while the prices of wheat flour, rice and sugar depicted a stability
Ehsaas Program: Under Ehsaas Emergency Cash Program, the government has disbursed Rs 179.3 billion to 14.8 million beneficiaries to provide immediate cash relief of Rs 12,000 whose livelihood has been severely affected by the pandemic
Other progress: The government has cleared the outstanding power sector dues in tune of more than Rupee 220bn and refunds of more than Rupee 250 billion
Power supply remained uninterrupted, resultantly exports and industrial output growth remained in double digit
After very long-time rural economy has strengthened with record growth in crop yields and prices
The country is also witnessing the construction boom led by construction package announced by Prime Minister
More than Rupee 1,000 billion worth projects were approved in one year
Construction of Dams initiated which will double the water storage from current 13 million acre feet and addition of 10,000 mega watts of electricity
The country has scored overall well on health front, more than 150mn vaccines have been administered. Close to US$2bn spent on vaccines without provincial contribution
Highest number of social and economic programs launched e.g Kamyab Pakistan, Sehat card, Ehsaas Rashan, KamyabJawan, Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar, Kissan card, etc
Introduction of winter relief tariffs to industries, commercial and households
Introduced the Textile, Auto, and SME Policies
Focus on non-conventional products and market exports for diversification especially on IT sector related incentives
Implemented the toughest FATF action plan in limited period
Better administrative controls and productivity growth brought prices of essential food items down e.g. Wheat flour, Sugar, onion, potatoes, tomatoes, and pulses
Outlook: Going forward, we expect the growth to stay at 5%, exports $31bn, remittances $32bn, taxes Rupee 6,000bn, trade deficit to reduce in 2HFY22
Recent pressures on Current account are due to commodity shock but risks are receding due to timely policy actions.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2022
Foreign inflows hitting 65b$... Almost 50% increase in 3 years..pretty solid

But not enough as gap was 70% to begin with(24b deficit) or 140% of exports

140% trade deficit in 2018

So you will need to atleast triple your exports to even break even..

Lol..not doable
Are these people serious? $31B with a population of 210M people is a stretch goal for these buffoons?? The famous Urdu idiom "chullu bhar paani mey doob maro" (we should die of shame) comes to mind. One of the most horrendous examples of under-utilized manpower in the history of mankind! Turkey, with 84M people, has exports worth $225B this past year!! Let's take stock of that. It is criminal that these bastards who have ruled Pakistan have left an army of uneducated, impoverished masses that do nothing but procreate.

The one area where this horde of people could be leveraged is services possibly. Our useless governments, including IK's PTI, cannot even get the services industry right by training and putting this massive population to work.

Its not the politics but the useless nature of policies and wastage that bothers ones mind about the ongoings in Pakistan.
Agree we need to wave a wand and magically we will have industries with all imported machinery setup and all the trained service staff for service industry without our comeptition doing anything ready to bring in large inflows..overnight

We dont have to worry about money needed for even importing machinery
 

FuturePAF

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Agreed but all these problems were created over the last 70 years not in 1 day, thus they will take atleast a minimum of a decade to resolve to the point where major changes are seen. At this rate PK can reasonably achieve the export target of 50 BN USD by 2024-2025. If imports are reigned in, FDI/Remittance increased, then the deficit problem will resolve on its own. IK will need atleast until 2030 to resolve the majority of PKs problems. That is the sad state of affairs for us.

FDI is the key. The reason Remittances are growing is because other economies around the world are growing, to the point that remittances are higher than exports. Pakistan needs policies that attract enough FDI (3-5% of GDP every year) so the Pakistani economy itself grows domestically and for the export market. There are many inefficiencies in the Pakistani economy that I think are being addressed but not as comprehensively as they need to be to speed up grow as much as possible.
 
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Awan68

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Good post.
I don't think there is much choice left but to stick with the current govt for at least 2-3 more election cycles BUT making sure the govt doesn't get too complacent. Perform or perish!
Changes have been happening in Pakistan. My family is in textile business in Karachi and from the chatter I hear there IS at least some fears about 'living above means' scrutiny or hiding profit/income, in addition to Non-Payer bank accounts penalized, plus there are fears caught electricity theft. NOT saying my family is doing illegal things but telling about growing level of accountability in Pakistan, however slowly it maybe.
Political stability is must. THAT'S where BD has succeeded. Plus no wars--Pakistan has been a 'security state' throughout its history and trying to punch above its weight and that in my opinion is the root cause of most of Pakistan's problems.
PS. A You Tube Vlogger Makhdoom Shahabuddin, who is generally more credible than many other bloggers, in a recent video claimed that China has assured to pay all of Pakistan's $120 billion (basically assuming the loans) if push comes to shove. Don't know how true is that.
Pakistan has been a security state from its inception because we have had a 10 times bigger and stronger neighbour as our enemy and to top it all, just in the time frame of 30 yrs we have had 2 superpowers gunning for our blood which we successfully deflected and defeated. Pakistan has punched where no other country in modern history has done. Comparison with BD which is more and less an indian vessel and has been at peace since its inception is well, ridiculous.
 

Imran Khan

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Good post.
I don't think there is much choice left but to stick with the current govt for at least 2-3 more election cycles BUT making sure the govt doesn't get too complacent. Perform or perish!
Changes have been happening in Pakistan. My family is in textile business in Karachi and from the chatter I hear there IS at least some fears about 'living above means' scrutiny or hiding profit/income, in addition to Non-Payer bank accounts penalized, plus there are fears caught electricity theft. NOT saying my family is doing illegal things but telling about growing level of accountability in Pakistan, however slowly it maybe.
Political stability is must. THAT'S where BD has succeeded. Plus no wars--Pakistan has been a 'security state' throughout its history and trying to punch above its weight and that in my opinion is the root cause of most of Pakistan's problems.
PS. A You Tube Vlogger Makhdoom Shahabuddin, who is generally more credible than many other bloggers, in a recent video claimed that China has assured to pay all of Pakistan's $120 billion (basically assuming the loans) if push comes to shove. Don't know how true is that.
sir thier stupid ministers destroying country like stupid friends

buzdar is jahil ganwar not good manager at all
aviation minister just said few lines and all pakistani airline banned from EU /USA huge loss
asad umer was giving us big dreams before elections but cant find him now.
5th finance minster already changed
FM is creating stupid remarks and issues with arab countries
despite tall claim minister of privatization failed to sale PIA / RAILWAY/STEEL MILL etc
sheryar afridi did two blunders in new york and paris
even president himself did stupidity by signing deals in governor house and marriages in president house.
 

CrazyZ

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Are these people serious? $31B with a population of 210M people is a stretch goal for these buffoons?? The famous Urdu idiom "chullu bhar paani mey doob maro" (we should die of shame) comes to mind. One of the most horrendous examples of under-utilized manpower in the history of mankind! Turkey, with 84M people, has exports worth $225B this past year!! Let's take stock of that. It is criminal that these bastards who have ruled Pakistan have left an army of uneducated, impoverished masses that do nothing but procreate.

The one area where this horde of people could be leveraged is services possibly. Our useless governments, including IK's PTI, cannot even get the services industry right by training and putting this massive population to work.

Its not the politics but the useless nature of policies and wastage that bothers ones mind about the ongoings in Pakistan.
227 million people now. 4.5 million babies are born in Pakistan every year. We added 17 million more people in Pak in last few years. By the way, 17 million is the population of Netherlands whose exports are, well, 577 billion dollars.
Too much pessimism. Netherlands does a lot of re-export of goods made other European countries through its ports. Turkey had decades head start over Pakistan in development. Looking at raw population numbers masks the true demographic picture. Much of Pakistan's population is very young so can't add much to output.....this is also the key opportunity looking forward. Millions of workers will be approaching peak economic output over the next few decades. PTI is laying the groundwork for a bigger boom to come.
 

lafete

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japan started car assembly in Pakistan in the 80s. They never transferred any tech. Have been milking the country for 40 years now. Take Take Take. Now through their cartels they want the same subsidies for gas powered cars as electric cars.

The country needs a visionary leader.

There is fear of corruption which prevents govt from getting involved in industry or investment. How much foreign investment built china? The way you deal with fear is by facing it not running away from it.

There are by-pass tech's like how the cell phone by passed landline.

The future is electric, but there is no major initiative from the govt. No electric powered stoves to get rid of the reliance on gas. No major investment on solar or smart grids, no desire to take advantage of low hanging fruit.
 

blain2

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Then thank the government's that came previously

How exactly do you propose the current government is going to expand the export base for the country when the previous two governments did nothing and the export base actually contracted under them

30 billion is pitiful but let's remember that's increased from the amount under the last useless set of idiots under Nawaz
They are collectively at fault. But since neither you nor I sit in the government, we should be asking each of these successive governments what they have been doing to enhance the quality of our human resource, the one and ONLY asset that we have. We have no other resources, all the talk of natural gas, hidden gems and minerals in Balochistan etc. is just talk. The only thing that will take Pakistan's exports into hundreds of billions is the use of this massive sea of people. No other option.
 
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blain2

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We are starting from a very low base so we need very small targets. Small steps will ultimately get you to your destination.
I understand but we started with this low base a good 7 decades ago. I am not venting on anyone here specifically, I am just aghast at the continuing state of affairs. Once IK goes, the policies will be revamped by the next set of leaders to set the country on a new course and set the people back further.

The simple issue in my mind is the education and enablement of the human factor. It is the cheapest and lowest hanging fruit yet successive governments in Pakistan have collectively failed at delivering on this.

I am also hoping against hope that this single curriculum endeavor will help but I am not too sure. In the short to medium run it will peg our people back even further back in terms of competitiveness.
 

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