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$25b export to China possible by 2030

Bilal9

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Just needs 1pc more market share, says a study



Star Business Report

Bangladesh's exports to China, the world's second biggest economy, will grow to $25 billion if local suppliers can grab an additional 1 per cent share of the Chinese market by 2030, according to a study released yesterday.
Currently, Bangladesh's share of exports to the Chinese market is 0.05 per cent, equivalent to a bit above $1 billion in a year, it said.

Bangladesh has the opportunity to increase its exports to China as since July last year, the Chinese government approved duty-free facility for 97 per cent of products from Bangladesh, which is a big advantage for the country, it added.

Some 8,256 products enjoy duty-free facility from Bangladesh to China as the country falls under the least developed country (LDC) category, said MA Razzaque, research director of Policy Research Institute (PRI).

He was presenting a keynote paper at a webinar on "Bangladesh-China Economic and Trade Relations in the aftermath of the Covid-19 Global Pandemic", jointly organised by Economic Reporters' Forum (ERF) and Bangladesh China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI).

Razzaque also advocated for attracting Chinese investment in different export projects in Bangladesh. "We need to materialise investment pledges from China," he said.

China's economy remains robust, its trade is fast recovering and it is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). The significance of Bangladesh's export to China becomes clear if some trade data is analysed, he said.

For instance, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, China's exports of goods and services were $2.69 trillion and imports were $2.48 trillion. "Future growth of China will make its imports volume even bigger," Razzaque also said.

Bangladesh should also negotiate to bring in Chinese investment pledges worth more than $27 billion. Currently, Chinese investment in Bangladesh is $2 billion and the Chinese companies have been implementing different mega projects in the country, he said.

After Bangladesh makes the United Nations status graduation to a developing country, it will need a lot of FDI and China might be a major source for investment, he said.

Negotiations are underway for a free trade agreement (FTA) to be signed between Bangladesh and China, said Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi.

Last fiscal year, bilateral trade amounted to $12 billion, of which over $11 billion were goods imported from China.
China is the largest source of imports for Bangladesh and in pre-pandemic times, Bangladesh used to import goods worth more than $18 billion from the country.

Li Jiming, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, said it was high time to consider the signing of an FTA as bilateral trade was growing alongside Chinese investment in Bangladesh.

Bilateral trade decreased by 30.6 per cent year-on-year in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the ambassador added.
A discussion is underway for joint production of Chinese Covid-19 vaccines in Bangladesh, said Li Jiming, recalling Bangladesh's medical support to China last year.

China has shown a resilient recovery from the fallouts of Covid-19, said Mahbub Uz Zaman, Bangladesh's ambassador to China.
In 2019, bilateral trade was $18.5 billion. In pre-pandemic times, it annually grew by 24 per cent, he said.

Since China is the largest raw material supplier for the industries in Bangladesh, so the trade balance is heavily tilted towards China, he added.

BCCCI President Gazi Golam Murtoza chaired the discussion, moderated by ERF General Secretary SM Rashidul Islam.

Sharmeen Rinvy, president of the ERF; Md Sirazul Islam, executive chairman of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority; and Al Mamun Mridha, general secretary of the BCCI, were also present.
 

SpaceMan18

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12:00 AM, June 10, 2021 / LAST MODIFIED: 03:29 PM, June 10, 2021

Just needs 1pc more market share, says a study



Star Business Report

Bangladesh's exports to China, the world's second biggest economy, will grow to $25 billion if local suppliers can grab an additional 1 per cent share of the Chinese market by 2030, according to a study released yesterday.
Currently, Bangladesh's share of exports to the Chinese market is 0.05 per cent, equivalent to a bit above $1 billion in a year, it said.

Bangladesh has the opportunity to increase its exports to China as since July last year, the Chinese government approved duty-free facility for 97 per cent of products from Bangladesh, which is a big advantage for the country, it added.

Some 8,256 products enjoy duty-free facility from Bangladesh to China as the country falls under the least developed country (LDC) category, said MA Razzaque, research director of Policy Research Institute (PRI).

He was presenting a keynote paper at a webinar on "Bangladesh-China Economic and Trade Relations in the aftermath of the Covid-19 Global Pandemic", jointly organised by Economic Reporters' Forum (ERF) and Bangladesh China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI).

Razzaque also advocated for attracting Chinese investment in different export projects in Bangladesh. "We need to materialise investment pledges from China," he said.

China's economy remains robust, its trade is fast recovering and it is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). The significance of Bangladesh's export to China becomes clear if some trade data is analysed, he said.

For instance, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, China's exports of goods and services were $2.69 trillion and imports were $2.48 trillion. "Future growth of China will make its imports volume even bigger," Razzaque also said.

Bangladesh should also negotiate to bring in Chinese investment pledges worth more than $27 billion. Currently, Chinese investment in Bangladesh is $2 billion and the Chinese companies have been implementing different mega projects in the country, he said.

After Bangladesh makes the United Nations status graduation to a developing country, it will need a lot of FDI and China might be a major source for investment, he said.

Negotiations are underway for a free trade agreement (FTA) to be signed between Bangladesh and China, said Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi.

Last fiscal year, bilateral trade amounted to $12 billion, of which over $11 billion were goods imported from China.
China is the largest source of imports for Bangladesh and in pre-pandemic times, Bangladesh used to import goods worth more than $18 billion from the country.

Li Jiming, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, said it was high time to consider the signing of an FTA as bilateral trade was growing alongside Chinese investment in Bangladesh.

Bilateral trade decreased by 30.6 per cent year-on-year in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the ambassador added.
A discussion is underway for joint production of Chinese Covid-19 vaccines in Bangladesh, said Li Jiming, recalling Bangladesh's medical support to China last year.

China has shown a resilient recovery from the fallouts of Covid-19, said Mahbub Uz Zaman, Bangladesh's ambassador to China.
In 2019, bilateral trade was $18.5 billion. In pre-pandemic times, it annually grew by 24 per cent, he said.

Since China is the largest raw material supplier for the industries in Bangladesh, so the trade balance is heavily tilted towards China, he added.

BCCCI President Gazi Golam Murtoza chaired the discussion, moderated by ERF General Secretary SM Rashidul Islam.

Sharmeen Rinvy, president of the ERF; Md Sirazul Islam, executive chairman of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority; and Al Mamun Mridha, general secretary of the BCCI, were also present.


Well bois we need to start getting as much share of the Chinese market as possible cause I smell MONEYYYYYY 🤑 , also we need to start exporting more to the West especially the electronics part aka Walton.

If we can pull this off successfully BD can sorta maybeeee have a brighter future
 

UKBengali

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BD's best bet is the garments industry as the likes of Walton will find it hard to outcompete Chinese electronics companies that can make all the way from low end to nearly up there with Samsung and LG now.

By 2030, China should be pretty much uncompetitive in mainstream garments and so that gives countries like Vietnam and BD the chance to grab a nice slice of the Chinese domestic textile market.
 

SpaceMan18

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BD's best bet is the garments industry as the likes of Walton will find it hard to outcompete Chinese electronics companies that can make all the way from low end to nearly up there with Samsung and LG now.

By 2030, China should be pretty much uncompetitive in mainstream garments and so that gives countries like Vietnam and BD the chance to grab a nice slice of the Chinese domestic textile market.
True , but fam I don't want BD doing garments forever we need to step up our dam R&D for our electronics
 

UKBengali

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True , but fam I don't want BD doing garments forever we need to step up our dam R&D for our electronics

Not saying that BD electronics companies should not try and grab some share of the Chinese electronics markets.

However, the China of 2030 will need to import its garments from overseas as it will be too expensive to make it themselves due to high labour costs and BD could easily grab many billions of US dollars out of the hundreds of billions of dollars of garments that Chinese will need every year. BD will have to aim at the mid to higher end of the market as it itself may become uncompetitive at the lower end by 2030.

Garments will remain the backbone of BD exports for another 10-15 years at least. BD can stay somewhat competitive in garments for another 15-20 years, even with the high economic growth that is predicted.

We always talk about how important the West is to BD's economy but it could easily by 50:50 West:China 15-20 years down the line.
 

Bilal9

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BD's best bet is the garments industry as the likes of Walton will find it hard to outcompete Chinese electronics companies that can make all the way from low end to nearly up there with Samsung and LG now.

By 2030, China should be pretty much uncompetitive in mainstream garments and so that gives countries like Vietnam and BD the chance to grab a nice slice of the Chinese domestic textile market.
Vietnam labor cost for apparel is already maybe twice that of Bangladesh. But yeah we need to find markets for post GSP scenario, and fast. Certainly Chinese electronics market is vast and wide-ranging, but there is demand for low-end items too, which maybe too expensive in China to make, like low-end smartphones.

One thing that will be a roadblock is Chinese language integration in electronic products and more importantly, economies of scale for low level components (like low level IC's, programmable processors, which will be the factor that will be hard to compete with Bangladeshi exports to China. It will be a long way away for sure.

The only thing Bangladesh can compete in - is high labor component operations for value-addition, such as making wiring harnesses for cars and industrial vehicles for example.

There is no automatic machine that can do those operations. Entirely manual. Even in the US, UK and EU.
 
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Paul2

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Vietnam labor cost for apparel is already maybe twice that of Bangladesh.
Not really. I believe you are getting an assembly line worker who can read, and write for around $200-$400 month for a person with little experience. Maybe a bit more in Vietnam.

One thing that will be a roadblock is Chinese language integration in electronic products and more importantly, economies of scale for low level components (like low level IC's, programmable processors, which will be the factor that will be hard to compete with Bangladeshi exports to China. It will be a long way away for sure.
Bangladesh really resembles to me China at around 20 years ago.

5 Years ago you had effectively no electronics industry, now you got to a significant percentage of that of India, despite:
  1. India being few times larage
  2. India having higher GDP per capita until recently
  3. India starting on this path back in at least back in seventies
  4. No local supply chain as such. Bangladesh had no not just electronics industry until recently, but many others.
The speed is truly phenomenal. If I am right, in 5 more years Bangladesh will enter the same period akin what we had in between 2000-2010, what people now call golden years. Same was with Japan with a decade preceding its bubble years, and Korea too.

If it will indeed be like that, please, don't squander your once in a lifetime economic dividend on vanity projects. Such chance comes to a country only once at the crossing line to industrialised economy, and never again.
 

bluesky

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Last fiscal year, bilateral trade amounted to $12 billion, of which over $11 billion were goods imported from China.
China is the largest source of imports for Bangladesh and in pre-pandemic times, Bangladesh used to import goods worth more than $18 billion from the country.
$25 billion export to China? I do not know why such a feature with sooo many unknown factors and soo many ifs has been published. Please read the quotation above that says the reality of BD exports only at $1 billion worth of goods currently.

Why such a low-value export now? It is because BD has virtually no manufacturing base for mechanical or electrical goods. So, unless it invests more in such fields, there is no way BD export will ever go above $1 billion.

China has exempted taxes on thousands of import items from BD. But, the country is doing nothing to produce mechanical/ electrical-based products.

But, who can stop this kind of BD-style big talking? After all, we are a renowned nation whose people love not to work but talk big.

আমরা আমরা নির্ভিক বাঙালি
মুখে মুখে বিশ্বজয়
কথায় বিশ্বাস করি কাজে পাই ভয়।


"জয় বাংলাদেশ"
 

fallstuff

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What are the 3% of the total exports that has duties on, anyone knows ? What are the Chinese duties on garments exports from Bangladesh ?
 

Bilal9

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Not really. I believe you are getting an assembly line worker who can read, and write for around $200-$400 month for a person with little experience. Maybe a bit more in Vietnam.

Bangladesh really resembles to me China at around 20 years ago.

5 Years ago you had effectively no electronics industry, now you got to a significant percentage of that of India, despite:
  1. India being few times larage
  2. India having higher GDP per capita until recently
  3. India starting on this path back in at least back in seventies
  4. No local supply chain as such. Bangladesh had no not just electronics industry until recently, but many others.
The speed is truly phenomenal. If I am right, in 5 more years Bangladesh will enter the same period akin what we had in between 2000-2010, what people now call golden years. Same was with Japan with a decade preceding its bubble years, and Korea too.

If it will indeed be like that, please, don't squander your once in a lifetime economic dividend on vanity projects. Such chance comes to a country only once at the crossing line to industrialised economy, and never again.
Wise words brother- much respect.

You are right that concerning monthly wages, we should compare apples to apples, however - I'd respectfully argue that Bangladesh has been able to hold down wage levels as labor supply is rather large compared to say Vietnam or even Cambodia (two of our closest wage competitors). But we will not have this advantage forever of course. Recently (2018) Bangladesh minimum wages for apparel manufacture went up to $95 a month, I reckon Vietnam's is higher, but by how much I do not know.
 

Bilal9

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What are the 3% of the total exports that has duties on, anyone knows ? What are the Chinese duties on garments exports from Bangladesh ?
NO Chinese duty on RMG exports from Bangladesh. About duty on 3% of export categories - I don't know actually.

Bangladesh RMG exports to China increasing

Desk Report

Posted on October 27, 2019 6:22:54 pm Last updated at October 28, 2019 11:54:35 am
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US-China trade war and good performance of apparel exports in non-traditional markets acted as a catalyst for the rise in apparel export.

Bangladesh’s overall merchandise export earnings have registered a 10.55% growth to $40.53 billion in the just-concluded fiscal year, riding mainly on apparel exports, according to the provisional data of Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Of them export to China contributed $506.51 million.

Since 2011 the Chinese government has given Bangladesh a priority trade advantage, Bangladeshi exporters enjoy duty-free access to an export of more than 5,000 products, which is the case for garment export. This has helped boost garment exports to China.

BD RMG exports China increasing

Figure: Since 2011 the Chinese government has given Bangladesh a priority trade advantage, Bangladeshi exporters enjoy duty-free access to an export of more than 5,000 products.

US economy was better in the last year, which helped Bangladesh to export more. Beyond this, export performance to non-traditional export destinations including China, Japan, and India were better.

Over the past decade, garment shipments in the Chinese market have grown 9.6 times bigger. In the first quarter, the export revenue was only $ 52.81 million. FY2018–19 saw a growth of 29.33%, according to the Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau.


BD apparel export China
Increasing production costs in China have given Bangladesh the opportunity to export cotton-based clothing. China is reluctant to engage in the manufacture of low-end garments as the high-tech industry is moving towards manufacturing, opined industry leaders.

The Chinese government discourages textile production in their country due to environmental concerns. China is reducing investment in garment factories at the domestic level. Instead, it continues to operate production in countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, Vietnam and India.

“China has already invested heavily in the Bangladeshi garment sector. We welcome new Chinese investment, but Chinese factories have to be fully compliant factories that are approved by buyers worldwide, “said an industry leader.

China is one of the top investors with $1.03 billion in Bangladesh from that $430 million in the textile sector last year according to BIDA.

Bangladesh needs to use geographical proximity with China to exports our readymade garment exports.
“Lead times are important to us in this age of fast fashion. China and Bangladesh are less distant than European countries and the US. This has led us to increase shipments to China,” said BGMEA Director Md. Mohiuddin Rubel. The stimulus package from the government seems to be working to export the new market.
 

nahtanbob

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BD's best bet is the garments industry as the likes of Walton will find it hard to outcompete Chinese electronics companies that can make all the way from low end to nearly up there with Samsung and LG now.

By 2030, China should be pretty much uncompetitive in mainstream garments and so that gives countries like Vietnam and BD the chance to grab a nice slice of the Chinese domestic textile market.
Have you ever heard of robots ?
 

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