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2019 Indonesian General Election

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by Indos, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. Indos

    Indos PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    General elections will be held in Indonesia on 17 April 2019. For the first time in Indonesian history, the president, the vice president, and members of the parliament, will be elected on the same day with over 190 million eligible voters. Sixteen parties will be participating in the elections nationally - with four participating for the first time.

    In the presidential election, which follow a direct, simple majority system, incumbent Indonesian President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, will run for re-election with senior Muslim cleric Ma'ruf Amin as his running mate against former general Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta deputy governor Sandiaga Uno for the five-year term between 2019 and 2024. The election will be a re-match of the 2014 presidential election, in which Widodo defeated Prabowo.


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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indonesian_general_election
     
  2. Indos

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    Vision and Mission Presentation

    Jokowi (Infrastructure)



    Prabowo (General)

     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2019
  3. Indos

    Indos PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    The X Factors in Indonesia’s Presidential Race
    Economy and religion could define Indonesia’s 2019 presidential elections.

    By Ed Ratcliffe
    December 01, 2018


    With a GDP of more than $1 trillion, a population of 264 million, and diverse natural resources, Indonesia is one of the most dynamic economies in Southeast Asia. It is also one of the region’s most robust democracies. With less than six months until presidential elections in April 2019, the battle lines are already being drawn. As the government fights to maintain the rupiah amid changing global trade conditions, lively public debate emerges over the role of Islam in public life, inequality, foreign debt, and fake news.

    The Contenders

    The 2019 elections will see a rematch of the 2014 vote. President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the nation’s first leader from outside the political and military elite, is once again facing Prabowo Subianto, a former lieutenant general and establishment figure who chairs the Gerindra Party.

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    Jokowi remains the favorite; he is ahead in the most recent polls and retains his image as a down-to-earth man of the people. However, despite some success he has not delivered on all his 2014 election promises. In an effort to bolster his religious credentials and appeal to more conservative elements, Jokowi has chosen Ma’ruf Amin – head of the Indonesian Ulema Council and supreme leader of Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization) – as his running partner.

    Prabowo offers a strong-man image. As a former military leader, he has credibility on security and promotes a “just” society through economic and political prosperity. There are overlapping themes with Jokowi’s campaign, though no precise policy proposals from either candidate yet. Prabowo’s running mate is Sandiaga Uno, a business entrepreneur who retired as Jakarta’s deputy governor in order to run. Sandiaga has economic credibility and has already shown his appeal to younger voters, who, at 30 percent of the electorate, are crucial to both campaigns.

    It’s the Economy, Bodoh

    The economy is set to be the central aspect of the election campaign. It is a potential weak spot for Jokowi that Prabowo has already attacked on several fronts. Both candidates are likely to appeal to voters with populist economic policies as solutions to domestic social inequality and a tense global trade environment.

    In October, the rupiah fell to its lowest value in more than 20 years, stoking memories of the 1998 financial crisis. The immediate causes of the fall are global events, though a large current account deficit and U.S. denominated debt are underlying factors. The government – supported by the IMF – maintains that the currency issues are not indicative of Indonesia’s economic prospects, but a falling rupiah will impact day-to-day expenses and voters are likely to focus on pocketbook issues.

    While Jokowi has made inroads into welfare reform and social support, inequality remains stubbornly high. Money is being set aside by the government for energy and food subsidies. Prabowo has countered, tapping into lingering xenophobic tendencies with pledges to reduce reliance on foreign imports and labor.

    Prabowo has also claimed that Indonesia’s foreign debt trajectory will see the country bankrupt by 2030. Indeed, foreign debt has grown by 48 percent under Jokowi, largely due to public infrastructure spending. The government has struggled to rally private sector infrastructure investment and diversify away Chinese infrastructure investment, which has rocketed from $600 million in 2015 to $3.36 billion in 2017. The issue is currently salient across the region, with Malaysia cancelling Chinese-funded infrastructure projects.

    Behind the economic nationalism rhetoric, both candidates’ economic prospectus is likely to be more diverse. Jokowi’s track record has shown a strategy of long-term economic investment, reform, and liberalization, including improving infrastructure and increasing Indonesia’s credit rating, alongside populist projects – renationalizing natural resources and implementing energy price controls.

    Prabowo’s economic policy may also be influenced by his running mate’s business-friendly position. In both cases there may continue to be an incongruous mix of investment-friendly policies and protectionist moves in the energy, food and fuel sectors.

    Religion in Politics

    Since his first election campaign, Jokowi has faced repeated criticism over his religious credentials. In recent years political Islam has gained momentum in Indonesia, as groups pursue their interests through legal and democratic channels. These groups had a pivotal role in toppling Jokowi’s ally, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok, in the 2017 Jakarta gubernational race, in favor of Prabowo ally Anies Basdewan.

    Jokowi’s selection of Ma’ruf Amin as running mate was a thinly-veiled attempt to win conservative voters. But inasmuch as it has neutralized criticism, Jokowi’s base has accused him of selling out. However, Ma’ruf has recently been promoting a more moderate view – “Wasatiyyah Islam” or Islam tengah (centrist Islam) – that promotes the characteristics of balance and tolerance.

    Election Issues Reflect Global Trends

    Fake news runs rampant across Indonesian social media, especially on WhatsApp. Misinformation has had real-world consequences, including vigilante justice, arrests and riots. Both civil society and the government have attempted to debunk “alternative facts” and close the websites and groups responsible, leaving them vulnerable to accusations that they are silencing opponents and clamping down on free speech.

    Money politics and corruption have not yet garnered as much attention as in previous elections. Paying for votes will no doubt remain an issue, as Indonesia is susceptible to the practice of vote-buying based on its history as a patronage society. In elections in June to select governors and district heads, 18 governors and 75 mayors were under investigation for alleged bribery and corruption.

    Outlook for the Campaign Period

    Neither side has outlined a clear policy program outside their top-line mission statements: Creating a “sovereign and independent nation based on mutual cooperation” from Jokowi/Ma’ruf, and building an Indonesia that is “just, prosperous, politically and economically sovereign, and culturally distinct” from Prabowo/Sandiaga.

    The economy is sure to play a major role, and religion may continue to be important. Foreign policy has not been prominent in this, or previous, election campaigns beyond the domestic-related issues of Chinese investment and foreign workers. However, Jokowi has recently become more vocal in international forums on global trade tensions, encouraging nations to work together. This is indicative of Jokowi’s view that Indonesia’s economic fate is tied to regional and global economic performance more generally, despite the rising tones of economic nationalism seen domestically.

    Ed Ratcliffe is Head of Research and Advisory at Asia House.

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/the-x-factors-in-indonesias-presidential-race/
     
  4. Indos

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    Live: First Debate Jokowi-Prabowo



     
  5. Indos

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    Indonesian presidential campaign heats up with first debate

    By Stephen Wright | AP
    January 16 at 11:00 PM

    JAKARTA, Indonesia — Echoing the campaign tactics of Donald Trump, former Indonesian Gen. Prabowo Subianto says his country, the world’s third-largest democracy, is in dire shape and he is the leader who will restore it to greatness.

    Subianto, running for president a second time in the April 17 elections, faces a major campaign test Thursday when he and his running mate, millionaire businessman Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, debate President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his vice presidential pick, conservative cleric Ma’ruf Amin, in the first of five debates.

    The retired general’s message might appear to be lifted from Trump’s playbook of angry populism but Subianto has been at it far longer. He lost narrowly to Widodo in the 2014 election, a result he angrily refused to accept, and was a losing vice presidential candidate in 2004.

    A rousing strongman-style speaker, Subianto rails against poverty in Indonesia and says it’s lagging its neighbors economically, militarily and technologically. With more than 260 million people and rich in natural resources, it should be a world power but instead, he says, is at risk of collapse.

    “It’s easy to say ‘Indonesia will last a thousand years.’ But my fellow countrymen, if a state is unable to pay for hospitals, cannot guarantee food for its people, has a weak military system, can it last a thousand years?” Subianto said in his first major campaign speech this week.

    Senior figures in his campaign have even invoked ancient kingdoms based in Java and Sumatra, which held sway over parts of Southeast Asia, as an era of glory that modern Indonesia can reclaim.

    But so far opinion polls indicate Subianto isn’t expanding his support beyond an already converted minority — conservative Muslims who consider Widodo insufficiently Islamic and voters aged 50-plus who are nostalgic for the certainty of dictator Suharto’s rule that ended two decades ago.

    Subianto, who was married to Suharto’s daughter, was a feared general during the dictatorship and his involvement in its human rights abuses remains anathema to politically progressive Indonesians who, if dissatisfied with Widodo, are firmly behind him as the lesser of two evils.

    Polls show Widodo currently commanding between 52-54 percent support and Subianto 30-35 percent. But about 10 percent of voters are undecided and another 15 percent are considered swing voters, meaning the race has the potential to tighten.

    Subianto’s brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, has said the polls, like those that misjudged the U.S. presidential election and U.K. referendum on European Union membership, are wrong. Subianto has barely appeared on the campaign trial since campaigning officially began in September, leaving most appearances to his youthful running mate.

    Alexander Arifanto, an Indonesian politics expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said populist soundbites and slogans can narrow the race considerably but overcoming Widodo’s “fortress” of support in the provinces of Central Java and East Java is still a stretch for Subianto.

    “The Prabowo team can only attack, coming up with real policy is something that they are not doing,” he said. “They don’t have any concrete plan to come up with an alternative economic agenda to compete with Jokowi.”

    Widodo, the first Indonesian president from outside the country’s Jakarta elite, has made upgrading Indonesia’s creaking infrastructure the signature policy of his five year-term. A significant part of the effort has focused on Java, which with more than 140 million people is the world’s most crowded major island.

    About 3,430 kilometers (2,130 miles) of roads and 941 kilometers (585 miles) of highways and toll roads have been built nationwide, according to the Ministry of Public Works, along with numerous new airports and seaports. A subway in the congested capital is expected to open in March.

    Widodo’s lower middle-class roots in the central Javanese city of Solo and humble manner have made him widely liked. He, or the team around him, are also adept at connecting with Indonesia’s post-Suharto generation through savvy use of social media.

    A conservative Islamic movement toppled the minority Christian governor of Jakarta, a Widodo ally, in 2016 and he was subsequently sentenced to two years in prison for blasphemy. Widodo, however, is not the same lightning rod for controversy.

    “Jokowi was targeted as anti-Islam or less responsive to the problems of Muslims,” said Gun Gun Heryanto, a political analyst at Islamic State University in Jakarta. “But in fact Jokowi has provided a quick response to many sensitive problems of Muslims domestically and globally, and he chose a respected Muslim cleric as his running mate.”

    The debate topics Thursday include human rights, which won’t flatter Subianto if Widodo or Amin seize upon it to attack him.

    He was a field commander in East Timor during Indonesia’s brutal occupation of the country and was dismissed from the military in 1998 for ordering special forces troops under his command to kidnap more than two dozen student activists. He was never court-martialed.

    The students were tortured and two decades later, 13 of them remain missing.

    ___

    Associated Press writer Niniek Karmini contributed to this report.

    Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...67190c2fd08_story.html?utm_term=.b6860df76074