• Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Comments on Profile Post by OsmanAli98

  1. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Nasser had a chance if he seize the opportunities of cold war. Opportunities usually emerge during huge social/economic crisis. Then reformers/revolutionaries will rise.
    The west will interfere anyway, it's huge geopolitical interest. I think those revolutionaries need allies like China, or take the next cold war time window.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  2. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Also Arab world need a cold blood but wise leader like Stalin or Mao. Calculate all powers and interest, hide/accumulate power and take the chance to united as many as possible, including allies, enemies.
    The leader learn from USSR 1917 and China 1934, how to organize and manage a huge party.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  3. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    If Arab world want to revive, be prepared for high price. China reunited cost at least 40 millions death. Renaissance will take another 30-50 years. No mistake is allowed, every step should be carefully calculated.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  4. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    China renaissance environment is bad, 2 super power, one is on the north and west border, the other is on the east and south sea coast. Also a regional power- India on the south west border.
    Arab world renaissance environment is worse than China.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  5. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    The only 2 I can think of for now, is Iran and Turkey. Both has potentials to revive. Not under Erdogan, he is not qualified.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  6. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    People like Gaddafi had a vision, but they were too weak and too hasty which costed them dearly.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  7. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    I don't think the Arab world is going to have a true visionary leader for a long *** time, it's just in utter chaos and foreign powers are already too far up their backside.
    Mar 7, 2020
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  8. OsmanAli98
    OsmanAli98
    I think Arab integration fully needs to be done in baby steps and you are right Gaddafi was the last Arab leader that had a vision or sorts however I think regional integration needs to start with like this Algeria,Tunisia,Libya and Maroc should be form a Maghreb Union or sorts would require Algeria and Maroc to drop hostiltilties between each other
    Mar 7, 2020
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  9. OsmanAli98
    OsmanAli98
    Maroc should let the Sahawaris go and let them have their own republic and normalize ties with Algiers, as for the Levent once Syria sorta stablizes form a union or sorts with Lebanon or Jordan perhaps but the tricky part is the geo politics of the Levent Jordan is way to close to the US Syria close to Russia Lebanon way too sectarian
    Mar 7, 2020
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  10. OsmanAli98
    OsmanAli98
    The Gulf is probably the only region where Arab integration has worked despite their ideology being uber capitalist,uber too close to the US and their hot headed leaders from UAE and KSA but minus the tragic events in Yemen and spilt with Qatar the GCC has worked much better than other Arab integration projects
    Mar 7, 2020
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  11. OsmanAli98
  12. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Base on Russia and China experience, the place to have revolution usually start from huge social crisis. Gulf is too damn rich, their leaders and elites obsess with oil money, their people are fed with good food and easy money.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  13. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Yemen is a place with terrain, too close to Aden, no chance.
    Syria is too close to Israel, no chance.

    North Africa Arab population mainly distribute along the coast, no strategic depth. No chance.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  14. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Only Egypt has some sort of strategic depth along the Nile. The integration along the Nile has some chance, but not possible in foreseeable future.

    Egypt herself is over populated, which is good for political movement, but Egypt is too damn close to Suez Canal, interference is unavoidable. Little chance I think.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  15. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    I am pessimistic, but there are places which has strategic depth, resource, terrain, leaders and industrial base.
    Iran and Turkey.

    Actually Pakistan is a good place too, but Pakistan is too busy to deal with India. The rise of Pakistan can only happen when India collapses, I am just saying the fact, no political purpose.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  16. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Compare Iran and Turkey, Iran has much bigger chance. Iran power is centralized more than anyone in Muslim world, more resource than anyone including KSA. including oil, gas, minerals, more importantly, the WATER for industry.

    Iran has strategic depth more than anyone, Turkey is too damn close to Europe, and too much sea coast is exposed. While Iran is protected much better, only south sea coast exposed.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  17. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Iran has geopolitical importance, connect ME and Central Asia, that's the leverage to negotiate with other major powers.
    Iran has cultural influence, base on Shiah, Farsi and ethnics.
    Iran also has expansion space, from Levant to Afghanistan.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  18. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    We will see what happened when Iran armed herself with Nukes.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  19. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    Iran is also making sure it keeps its enemies busy. Supporting Palestinian insurgents, the Syrian regime and Yemeni insurgents is ensuring its enemies get locked in proxy battles rather than dealing with them directly.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  20. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    Iran itself also has cracks, but they're nowhere near as major as those within Arab countries, and if Arab countries try to make them bigger it could backfire massively with a trickle down effect.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  21. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    (because Iran's cracks are related to modernity vs theocracy, the very tinder box that causes Arab countries so much woe)
    Mar 8, 2020
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  22. Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    I think Pakistan could get around the India problem by making peace with it, but that won't happen anytime soon.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  23. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    Modernity is good, but the road to modernity is bumpy. Many countries failed on the halfway. Such as Thailand, Philippines, South America, Mexico, Egypt, and the list can go on and on.
    Mar 8, 2020
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  24. viva_zhao
    viva_zhao
    There are two countries are similar to China. One is Singapore, governed by elites base on credibility and capability. One is Iran, centralized the power on top of all interest group and sectarians.
    The difference between China and Singapore is size.
    The difference between China and Iran is CCP Party versus Guardian Council.
    Mar 8, 2020
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