• Thursday, November 21, 2019

Comments on Profile Post by Shane

  1. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    China's role in the GCC cannot be denied but at this moment is still limited to just economic cooperation with the arabs. The Americans still control all the Sheikhdoms and have each one of their kings and princes under surveillance and even control the foreign policy of the GCC to a great extent. (Paragraph 1)
    Aug 28, 2019
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  2. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    Do you remember when Trump said that MBS of Saudi can be easily replaced? The American bureaucrats and establishment brief the president Trump on the situation of the M.E before he comes out to the media and i'm sure they always tell Trump how fragile their Sheikhdoms are. The Americans know this and hence control the GCC to a much more greater degree than China ever will, at least for the next decade. (para2)
    Aug 28, 2019
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  3. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    Americans dont give a rat's *** as to what the foreign policy of the GCC is with regards to Pakistan and/or India. They just want to make sure that GCC acts like a great wall against Iran because Iran threatens the very existence of the state of Israel. (para3)
    Aug 28, 2019
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  4. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    The GCC also has its own reason to counter Iran and that is due to the unfortunate Shia Sunni conflict and hence GCC finds not China,not Pakistan or India, but Israel as a great strategic ally.

    China, however, could become an important player in the future of GCC only if the Iran (nuclear) threat is neutralized. Before that happens, GCC wont make new alliances that could weaken their unity against Iran.
    Aug 28, 2019
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  5. Shane
    Shane
    Nice write up.

    I see Israel, US and India partners in the larger ME game.

    Iran plays India's trade ally card well to grow stronger.

    US tolerates Iran to keep Arabs wary and in its corner while Israel bates GCC for protection against Iranian influence.

    So you think Pakistan's refusal to lead the war against houthis pushed GCC more towards Israel and India during Raheel/Nawaz era? Did we chose wisely?
    Aug 28, 2019
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  6. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    It was only natural for the GCC to look for other means to tackle the Iran problem after Pakistan excused from the assault. They went with the best bet, which was Israel.

    If Pakistan went forward with the assault, I am pretty sure that the GCC would have been overwhelmed with happiness. There would be around 50 thousand Pakistan Army soldiers in Southern Saudi Arabia to help them against the Houthis.
    Aug 28, 2019
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  7. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    But the problem is that Pakistan could not afford to have sectarian violence starting in Pakistan specially when the war against terrorism was in decisive stages. 20% of Pak population is Shia who really associate with Iran on a spiritual level and would have really minded the Pakistani initiative.
    Aug 28, 2019
  8. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    Now I can never know what hell could have broken loose on Pakistan if she went ahead with leading the offensive against Houthis, but now I'm pretty sure what happens if we dont.
    Aug 28, 2019
  9. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    Pakistan could have really benefited if she lead the way in Yemen. The influence in the Arab peninsula would have been long lasting. India would also be on the back foot as GCC would be actively lobbying to convince India to not bother Pakistan. Pakistan could have access to new military hardware and get economic assistance.
    Aug 28, 2019
  10. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    But at the same time I would also like to imagine another type of scenario : After Pakistan said yes to the offensive, Shia militancy starts to sprout all over Gilgit Baltistan region and in areas of Balochistan, supported by India and Iran. Just like the PTM movement, these movements also start to have Pakistan under a lot of pressure.
    Aug 28, 2019
  11. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    The CPEC project with the Chinese, which the Pakistan Army values more than anything, could be easily compromised if sectarianism got hold of Pakistan. The dream of Pakistani establishment to get a good economy could have been destroyed.
    Aug 28, 2019
  12. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    It was always a double edged sword for Pakistan. However, a better choice was made because GCC is just too fragile to be having a strategic alliance with. China would fare to be a much better partner in the future coz China is here to stay but the same cant be said for MBS of S.A for example. Plus to be frank, the lives of our jawans are too precious to be wasted anymore specially on Iran backed militia 2000kms away.
    Aug 28, 2019
  13. Shane
    Shane
    The situation is always not black and white, meaning?opportunities.

    Diving deeper we can see that Houthi movement at the time was political and included Sunnis from houthi strongholds as well and also sunnis from Ali Abdullah Saleh untill the sides parted ways and saleh was killed by Houthis.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  14. Shane
    Shane
    Houthis are Zaidi Shias, not the same sect as Iranian Twelver Shia sect.

    Iran denied that it helps Houthis in the first few years.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  15. Shane
    Shane
    Pakistan could have taken advantage of the above differentiating factors to nullify sectarian divide within Pak and the notion of openly going against Iran.

    Pakistan Army's involvement would have made the fight more humane and professional against
    Terrorists instead of a Wahabi-Shia sectarian war.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  16. Shane
    Shane
    Gen Raheel wanted to get appointed privately after his retirement as the Islamic coalition chief, a 2million$/m job.

    We can add 2+2 which ever way but the answer never is anything but 4. So when the "parliament" decided to stay neutral so did the state conveniently obliged.

    So who benefitted and who didn't is also black and white with a lot of grey to leave room for denial.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  17. Shane
    Shane
    About China and Saudia, there is just one thing that I would add, Saudis will be the biggest 3rd country partner in the CPEC. India is offering Saudis and UAE Chabahar alternative to Gwadar as well as a more sympathetic Israel as a package deal to isolate Pakistan.

    Ironic how India is friends with both Arabs and Iran as well as Israel and the US doesnot impose sanctions on Chabahar port.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  18. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    You are right to say that the situation is not always black and white. Its more complicated than we can imagine. Pakistan could have easily found ways to justify an offensive in Yemen. But at the same time, militias giving rise to sectarianism in Pakistan could have also done the same.
    Aug 29, 2019
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  19. V. Makarov
    V. Makarov
    I would not recommend a Pakistani to ever get demoralized if India is good friends with GCC and Israel, because India cannot offer GCC what Pakistan can. If someone can steal the GCC from us, its only Israel (she already has). Even still, GCC will always shout for Pakistan if something ever happens in the future I guarantee it :-)
    Aug 29, 2019
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