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  • 英国衰落是因为他们没办法,才选绥靖。不是他们要的。
    vi-va
    vi-va
    所以中国这次硬顶,就是搓破了印度的左右逢源的战略构想。真的把刀子逼在了印度的肚子上。印度如果继续强硬,就会成为砧板上被捶打的货,彻底失去被美国拉拢的筹码。


    印度如果不强硬,就会被全世界包括印度周边国家识破印度色厉内荏。现在尼泊尔是毛派当家,巴基斯坦因为克什米尔370等问题也放弃了绥靖的构想。

    印度突然发现自己从优良的外交地位一下子跌入深渊。这个深渊恰恰是modi外交失衡的结果。

    Modi走民粹派,但是在国家关键的建设方面少有建树。说得多,做得少。一旦硬碰硬,就泄了。
    vi-va
    vi-va
    这就充分展现了印度学自英国的英式外交特色。

    所谓只制衡不对抗,绝非克制,而是精明。实质是让其他国家和中国冲突,印度坐得渔利,甚至能两面叫价,不到最后一刻绝不随便摊牌。

    所谓只合作不结盟,就是有距离地互相利用,但保持更灵活的外交主动权,和更大的加盟叫价权。

    这就提醒我们,印度其实是在三个点之间求平衡:

    ·印度不希望美国深入印度洋

    ·印度也不准备真帮美国打中国

    ·印度更不希望看到一个强大的中国,尤其不希望看到一个进入印度洋的强大中国
    vi-va
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    这就决定了印度的战略,一定是继续在不结盟的幌子下保持自己的行动自由,但又要可了劲地宣传中国威胁论,绷紧中美关系。用中国威胁论掩护印度崛起的同时,还要用印度崩溃论同时迷惑中美。对美国打中国牌,对中国打美国牌。两面叫价,套足实利。中美关系缓和的时候就制造紧张空气。中美关系吃紧的时候就用不结盟来和美国保持距离,用中印合作套取好处。一有机会,还不忘了对华搞蚕食、挖墙脚,甚至搞机会主义冒险。
    If the USSR had no revisionists that wanted China to be Soviet vassal could the world order be radically different
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Mao is very ideological and bold. He can be very rational/irrational if USSR knew what he really wanted. Khrushchev was a pig farmer(true). He was played by Nixon when Nixon was vice president. Nixon just fooled him around, then suddenly Khrushchev tried to mend ties with US.
    The biggest blow to USSR is Khrushchev himself, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Cult_of_Personality_and_Its_Consequences
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Stalin style system can not select leaders peacefully, either by force, or coup. China tried to overcome the defects of this kind of system for 2000 years. It's not a easy job to be honest.

    If it's not Khrushchev but Stalin in charge, China will still be with USSR for quite many years. and Stalin played geopolitics much better. Even Mao knew it and won't challenge Stalin.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    But those USSR leaders after Stalin were inferior. Mao despised them even those guys hold a much bigger gun.
    Yankee-stani
    Yankee-stani
    China in a way has been able to create its own it eco system I am old enough to remember Bush railing against the firewall
    vi-va
    vi-va
    China has started preparing self-circulation economy, as well as reaching out to more countries.
    China as a latecomer has many shortcomings, but as an ancient civilization, we went through way too many ups and downs.
    Prepare for the worst, and endurance is the key for winning.
    vi-va
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    The WASP was unchallenged for way too long. Their people are not prepared for sacrifice, at least not yet.
    不用回那些东西,都没人回复就掉下去了
    vi-va
    vi-va
    If you knew how difficult I get into the top university in China, while the minorities can get into it with lower test score. You will know a small portion of how well they were treated.
    Ground reality is not the same as western media reported at all.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Keep it. It's totally fine. Not a big deal.
    Rafeh
    Rafeh
    Look I understand what you saying. I also know china does provide good facilities to its minorities. On the other hand, lots of our problems in Pakistan are due to us not doing that. Still, I just wanted to clarify. Take good care.
    Thoughts on B'aathism and Arab Socialism
    Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    I think Pakistan could get around the India problem by making peace with it, but that won't happen anytime soon.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Modernity is good, but the road to modernity is bumpy. Many countries failed on the halfway. Such as Thailand, Philippines, South America, Mexico, Egypt, and the list can go on and on.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    There are two countries are similar to China. One is Singapore, governed by elites base on credibility and capability. One is Iran, centralized the power on top of all interest group and sectarians.
    The difference between China and Singapore is size.
    The difference between China and Iran is CCP Party versus Guardian Council.
    The origin of coronavirus may comes from United States was deleted. Reason: Dangerous conspiracy theory / Dubnious sources / Fake news
    Welcome back Comrade Viva
    vi-va
    vi-va
    A lot of PDF members here are prone liberal, especially those get educated or live in western countries.
    Chinese are bashed, which I am not surprised.
    Nilgiri
    Nilgiri
    Welcome back @viva_zhao , hope to have good convo with you on matters soon. Osman sadly got banned for a week just now
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Thank you, my Indian friend.
    I noticed that. My post got deleted yesterday as well. I can live with it. :)
    China needs better soft power look towards the Russians are doing tbh
    vi-va
    vi-va
    China need soft power, China lag behind for decades. Many reasons, the biggest decline of China civilization in history since 19th century, the invasion of western powers, the invasion of Japanese(which is heart breaking, because Japanese is Chinese culturally back in 1930s), and revolutions after revolutions, good and bad ones.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    China is lonely, most of the resources on earth has been occupied by western powers, if you count European, Russia, US, Canada, Australia, South America together, they has 8 times of resources of China.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    China is no fool, it's long long term game. If China fail, I am pretty sure, the future of all Muslim is dark. There is no one can check the western power. Literally NO ONE.
    There is difference between folks on PDF and folks on the ground in Pakistan or in the govt
    vi-va
    vi-va
    No, I did NOT misunderstand. The same elites who speak English, read English in HK and Pakistan. Those elites think for themselves, love themselves more than the countries. And the very small group, who can influence the media, banking, court, and make huge damage to Pakistan.
    If Pakistan can NOT control them, they control Pakistan.
    I read too much history, the Chinese history, thousands lessons learnt.
    Nilgiri
    Nilgiri
    "Inferred" methodology (most popular in the internet clickbait) is just not a substitute for direct sampling (before we even get to IQ vs final functional intelligence arguments), should we say Chinese were "low IQ/intelligence" at their worst relative development time period (say 1940s?)
    vi-va
    vi-va
    As a scientific analysis, people sampled should have similar education back ground in the similar age and nutriture.

    You should compare difference races in the U.S. Or different races in China.

    I am not a racist, but I don't believe all men are equal neither.

    I believe some are good at math, some are good at art, some are good at sports, and so on. My English sucks, my physics is good.
    Nilgiri
    Nilgiri
    I mostly agree, I just put direct data for all this stuff as the only standard to measure. If its IQ, then you got to design sample survey with direct measurement of IQ...simple. The quoted IQ comparisons do not do that....they infer too much. Its not good science to me. Just measure what you say you want to measure, period.
    vi-va
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    On January 17, 1961, Eisenhower gave his final televised Address to the Nation from the Oval Office. In his farewell speech, Eisenhower raised the issue of the Cold War and role of the U.S. armed forces. He described the Cold War: "We face a hostile ideology global in scope, atheistic in character, ruthless in purpose and insidious in method ..."
    vi-va
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    Eisenhower warned about what he saw as unjustified government spending proposals and continued with a warning that "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military–industrial complex."
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