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  • @samsara
    A true MAD need not 300 nukes, not 3000, at least tens of thousands. In cold war era, USSR and US keep 40,000 and 30,000 nukes respectively.
    How to deliver 30k nuclear head? Missile is way too expensive.
    The first trike will be missiles, destroy rival major defense system like THAAD. The second and third trike will be bombers.
    Only bombers can deliver nuclear head over and over again.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Before H-20 is ready, China will be very cautious. We are not India. We will not bluff, no boast. We will let our rivals know when MAD is ready. It will take at least 15-20 years.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Right now, China will be low profile on nuclear deterrence. It's cost inefficient to spend too much on ICBM.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    H-20 is the key for SEA POWER as well as final MAD deterrence.
    所以你是极右吧?错看你了。你这样跟你批判的白人种族主义者有什么区别?你在伊朗那个贴里跟那个别扭的极右伊朗人的对话我都快看瞎了。商业互吹不尴尬吗?我现在后悔随口说对印度人跟伊朗人的刻板印象,你直接从整个历史否定人家的文化?其实中印伊三国很多像你们一样的人发达了都是种族歧视者,没发达还造不成太大危害而已,体面点,不要随便商业互吹或者贬低别人找优越感了吧?
    vi-va
    vi-va
    boy, you are too young to judge me. You knew me little.
    F
    FIIL
    好吧,军事论坛人均极右。我也看出来别的国家也几乎没有不右的。你们好好玩,看谁最后练成蛊王
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Too young, too simple, sometimes naive.
    你喜欢学习。收听有关号角起源的播客。它始于约公元前4000年的欧洲,与旧欧洲抗衡


    草原上的kurgans是猎人的聚集地,是小屋的居民。中东文明人民移民到欧洲,并带来了农业和动物作为食物。他们与草原上的kurgans分享并交易,几个世纪后,他们袭击了欧洲人。那些幸存者住在强化的城镇中

    后来,这些相同的草原kurgans与更多发明铜器的中东人接触,并且草原kurgans用铜器造剑,杀死了80%的欧洲人

    该播客将欧洲人的衰落归咎于气候变化。这就像将广岛爆炸事件归咎于气候变化一样。无论哪里有欧洲原住民的男人失踪,这些草原kurgans都在犯罪现场,并拥有欧洲原住民的妇女

    中国的经验教训是不要卷入与他们的战争,要比他们最机密的武器更强大。他们讨厌每个人
    英国衰落是因为他们没办法,才选绥靖。不是他们要的。
    vi-va
    vi-va
    所以中国这次硬顶,就是搓破了印度的左右逢源的战略构想。真的把刀子逼在了印度的肚子上。印度如果继续强硬,就会成为砧板上被捶打的货,彻底失去被美国拉拢的筹码。


    印度如果不强硬,就会被全世界包括印度周边国家识破印度色厉内荏。现在尼泊尔是毛派当家,巴基斯坦因为克什米尔370等问题也放弃了绥靖的构想。

    印度突然发现自己从优良的外交地位一下子跌入深渊。这个深渊恰恰是modi外交失衡的结果。

    Modi走民粹派,但是在国家关键的建设方面少有建树。说得多,做得少。一旦硬碰硬,就泄了。
    vi-va
    vi-va
    这就充分展现了印度学自英国的英式外交特色。

    所谓只制衡不对抗,绝非克制,而是精明。实质是让其他国家和中国冲突,印度坐得渔利,甚至能两面叫价,不到最后一刻绝不随便摊牌。

    所谓只合作不结盟,就是有距离地互相利用,但保持更灵活的外交主动权,和更大的加盟叫价权。

    这就提醒我们,印度其实是在三个点之间求平衡:

    ·印度不希望美国深入印度洋

    ·印度也不准备真帮美国打中国

    ·印度更不希望看到一个强大的中国,尤其不希望看到一个进入印度洋的强大中国
    vi-va
    vi-va
    这就决定了印度的战略,一定是继续在不结盟的幌子下保持自己的行动自由,但又要可了劲地宣传中国威胁论,绷紧中美关系。用中国威胁论掩护印度崛起的同时,还要用印度崩溃论同时迷惑中美。对美国打中国牌,对中国打美国牌。两面叫价,套足实利。中美关系缓和的时候就制造紧张空气。中美关系吃紧的时候就用不结盟来和美国保持距离,用中印合作套取好处。一有机会,还不忘了对华搞蚕食、挖墙脚,甚至搞机会主义冒险。
    If the USSR had no revisionists that wanted China to be Soviet vassal could the world order be radically different
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Mao is very ideological and bold. He can be very rational/irrational if USSR knew what he really wanted. Khrushchev was a pig farmer(true). He was played by Nixon when Nixon was vice president. Nixon just fooled him around, then suddenly Khrushchev tried to mend ties with US.
    The biggest blow to USSR is Khrushchev himself, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Cult_of_Personality_and_Its_Consequences
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Stalin style system can not select leaders peacefully, either by force, or coup. China tried to overcome the defects of this kind of system for 2000 years. It's not a easy job to be honest.

    If it's not Khrushchev but Stalin in charge, China will still be with USSR for quite many years. and Stalin played geopolitics much better. Even Mao knew it and won't challenge Stalin.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    But those USSR leaders after Stalin were inferior. Mao despised them even those guys hold a much bigger gun.
    Yankee-stani
    Yankee-stani
    China in a way has been able to create its own it eco system I am old enough to remember Bush railing against the firewall
    vi-va
    vi-va
    China has started preparing self-circulation economy, as well as reaching out to more countries.
    China as a latecomer has many shortcomings, but as an ancient civilization, we went through way too many ups and downs.
    Prepare for the worst, and endurance is the key for winning.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    The WASP was unchallenged for way too long. Their people are not prepared for sacrifice, at least not yet.
    不用回那些东西,都没人回复就掉下去了
    vi-va
    vi-va
    If you knew how difficult I get into the top university in China, while the minorities can get into it with lower test score. You will know a small portion of how well they were treated.
    Ground reality is not the same as western media reported at all.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Keep it. It's totally fine. Not a big deal.
    Rafeh
    Rafeh
    Look I understand what you saying. I also know china does provide good facilities to its minorities. On the other hand, lots of our problems in Pakistan are due to us not doing that. Still, I just wanted to clarify. Take good care.
    Thoughts on B'aathism and Arab Socialism
    Taimur Khurram
    Taimur Khurram
    I think Pakistan could get around the India problem by making peace with it, but that won't happen anytime soon.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    Modernity is good, but the road to modernity is bumpy. Many countries failed on the halfway. Such as Thailand, Philippines, South America, Mexico, Egypt, and the list can go on and on.
    vi-va
    vi-va
    There are two countries are similar to China. One is Singapore, governed by elites base on credibility and capability. One is Iran, centralized the power on top of all interest group and sectarians.
    The difference between China and Singapore is size.
    The difference between China and Iran is CCP Party versus Guardian Council.
    The origin of coronavirus may comes from United States was deleted. Reason: Dangerous conspiracy theory / Dubnious sources / Fake news
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