• Monday, January 27, 2020
viva_zhao

CPECVISION

CPECVISION
viva_zhao, Nov 26, 2019
BilalAmjad456 thanked this.
    • zull
      @viva_zhao Sorry for late reply. Yes, your idea matched my mind but when you discuss with our countrymen, you will see that some of them in this forum usually think short and do not understand the whole meaning of your sentences so they usually lead to another topic and this make us be far the main topic. This is clear when I saw the discussion between you and Viva_Viet, he was not awareness of your idea and some reply of him did not criticize your main point completely. We can base on the fact to persuade people, but people who do not think the opponent’s idea thoughtfully, it will be to hard to do so. The world should need open-minded people, not nationalists.
      viva_zhao thanked this.
    • viva_zhao
      @zull It' hard. As long as Vietnam think China as a threat, which is true in SCS. Any discussion can not be rational.
      The history book in every countries are manipulated. Le Duan bet on USSR deterrence, he want China do nothing so that he can conquer Cambodia. How can Vietnam admit Le Duan failed? It's impossible.

      If China had a weak leader like Gorbachev, Le Duan will win, he will be portrayed as Vietnam hero for centuries.

      Imo, Le Duan may made good bet, but he has bad luck. Deng Xiaoping is not Gorbachev at all. Deng announced USSR as enemy publicly, and made friend with US.

      It's USSR, expended to far to Vietnam, push China to US camp. China can NOT tolerate any great power close to China border, that's why there was Korean War in 1950.

      If Vietnam ally with US in future, it will be much more dangerous than 1979. I have no hostility toward Vietnam, but that's how world politics plays.
      zull thanked this.
    • viva_zhao
      @zull Just think about cuban missile crisis in 1962 and Russia took back Crimea in 2004.
      When Great power feel threatened, they behave the same. They can NOT tolerate rival power close to their border.
      zull thanked this.
    • zull
      @viva_zhao Is it hard to do the same with the Indians ?
    • viva_zhao
      @zull India herself is great regional power. China and India have very long shared border, and very problematic. But we managed to maintenance peace and no single bullet cross the border for decades.
      What do you mean "do the same with Indians"?
    • zull
      Ah, I just think Chinese and Indian are in the same situation like Vietnamese and Chinese because Indians seems to be hostile to Chinese. So is it difficult to persuade Indians like Vietnamese ? I am just curious. Dont worry about it. :)
    • viva_zhao
      @zull There is no way China can invade India. There is Himalaya, which is very difficult to cross. The problem is more like border dispute, and both China and India realize that the only realistic way to deal with the dispute is through political dialogue, any escalation is destructive. Neither China nor India has strong motivation to conquer the other side of Himalaya mountain.
      zull thanked this.
    • viva_zhao
      Usually great power are hard to get along with each other, it usually be problematic instead of harmony. Tension is normal, control the tension and develop relationship to build trust is the way to move forward.
      zull thanked this.
    • viva_zhao
      While Vietnam feel threat differently than India. The power balance is on China side, it's natural Vietnam feels uncomfortable because of past conflicts and dispute on SCS.
      There is no way China can give up claim on SCS when power balance is China side. It's hard for Vietnam as well.
      The dilemma has to be solved gently and politically, otherwise it will be destructive and exploited by outside power, which is US right now.
      BilalAmjad456 and zull thanked this.
    • zull
      Thanks for enlightening me. It’s a helpful conversation to me.
      viva_zhao thanked this.
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