Luca1
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The competition between the United States, Japan and China is heating up. All three countries are aiming to woo India—a country whose uncommitted partnership will help to define Asia’s balance of power. At meetings on September 29 and September 30 between President Barack Obama and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, Washington must reinvigorate the countries’ recently strained ties, make up ground lost to Beijing in courting New Delhi, and supplement Tokyo’s progress in drawing New Delhi closer.
There are many motivations for wooing India. It has the world’s second largest population and is projected to surpass China’s by 2028. As measured by GDP, India’s economy is the third largest in Asia. New Delhi fields the world’s second largest army, its military budget exceeds $38 billion (up 12 percent over the previous year), it is expected to become the world’s fourth largest defense spender by 2020, and it has been the world’s top arms importer since 2010. India is enhancing its power-projection capabilities, including by developing long-range nuclear missiles and manufacturing indigenous nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. The country shares a 2,500-mile border with China and sits near critical chokepoints in the Indian Ocean, through which over 80 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes, along with almost one third of global trade. Given its strength and location, India can shape Asia’s balance of power in favor of or against China, depending on whether it deepens its cooperation with the United States and China’s competitors.
While Japan and China have been successful in wooing India, the United States has not been so lucky. Unfortunately, despite having greatly improving ties with New Delhi during the George W. Bush administration, Washington has recently mismanaged the relationship. As a senior Indian diplomat complained:
“[w]e can’t get any attention from [the Obama] administration, but you can’t solve serious problems without them. They’re busy with Russia, Syria, the Middle East and Iran. But in the current circumstances, it is vital that they also pay attention to the India relationship soon, since the current drift could get much worse.”
America’s failure to appoint a new ambassador to India since the last one resigned in March is a glaring omission that is evidence of Washington’s carelessness in handling its relations with New Delhi. Furthermore, from 2005 until he was elected prime minister this past May, Modi was denied a U.S. visa because he allegedly violated religious freedoms while holding a lower office (the Indian Supreme Court found no evidence to charge him). For infrastructure collaboration with India, the United States has offered $10.6 billion—a figure dwarfed by China’s and Japan’s contributions. Last year, following a trend since at least 2011In April, Washington added New Delhi to a list of countries with insufficient intellectual property rights protections and considered sanctioning it. In December 2013, the United States arrested and strip-searched an Indian diplomat (Devyani Khobragade) on visa-fraud charges. India retaliated by investigating U.S. personnel in India for tax and visa compliance, withdrawing diplomatic privileges and cancelling high-level government visits. Indian media reported that the incident set back U.S.-Indian relations to their lowest point since India tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
Despite all of this, to be sure, India is not poised to unabashedly embrace China just because U.S.-Indian relations have cooled. But daylight between Washington and New Delhi does make it easier for Beijing to secure Indian neutrality regarding its rise. However, there is still hope for improving U.S.-Indian relations. The upcoming Obama-Modi summit will provide a golden opportunity for the United States to deepen its economic, military and diplomatic ties to India.
But even if no U.S.-Indian mutual-defense treaty ever arises, Washington should solidify its relationship with New Delhi. First, doing so will reduce doubts about U.S. staying power in Asia. China will be more likely to hesitate before challenging America’s regional friends, and those countries will be emboldened to resist China’s bullying. Second, strengthening India economically and militarily will help to contain China, even if those efforts take place independent of America’s. Indeed, the gap between Indian and Chinese power will narrow and India will be better positioned to enhance its neighbors’ military capacities and to lead (or at least co-lead) those smaller countries in balancing China (which, given India’s sensitivity to playing America’s deputy sheriff, New Delhi may prefer over a U.S.-Indian alliance led by Washington).
The Obama-Modi meeting will take place shortly after Xi visits Modi. Obama must take bold steps to show Modi that India’s future is best secured by closer ties to the United States and its partners.
There are many motivations for wooing India. It has the world’s second largest population and is projected to surpass China’s by 2028. As measured by GDP, India’s economy is the third largest in Asia. New Delhi fields the world’s second largest army, its military budget exceeds $38 billion (up 12 percent over the previous year), it is expected to become the world’s fourth largest defense spender by 2020, and it has been the world’s top arms importer since 2010. India is enhancing its power-projection capabilities, including by developing long-range nuclear missiles and manufacturing indigenous nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. The country shares a 2,500-mile border with China and sits near critical chokepoints in the Indian Ocean, through which over 80 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes, along with almost one third of global trade. Given its strength and location, India can shape Asia’s balance of power in favor of or against China, depending on whether it deepens its cooperation with the United States and China’s competitors.
While Japan and China have been successful in wooing India, the United States has not been so lucky. Unfortunately, despite having greatly improving ties with New Delhi during the George W. Bush administration, Washington has recently mismanaged the relationship. As a senior Indian diplomat complained:
“[w]e can’t get any attention from [the Obama] administration, but you can’t solve serious problems without them. They’re busy with Russia, Syria, the Middle East and Iran. But in the current circumstances, it is vital that they also pay attention to the India relationship soon, since the current drift could get much worse.”
America’s failure to appoint a new ambassador to India since the last one resigned in March is a glaring omission that is evidence of Washington’s carelessness in handling its relations with New Delhi. Furthermore, from 2005 until he was elected prime minister this past May, Modi was denied a U.S. visa because he allegedly violated religious freedoms while holding a lower office (the Indian Supreme Court found no evidence to charge him). For infrastructure collaboration with India, the United States has offered $10.6 billion—a figure dwarfed by China’s and Japan’s contributions. Last year, following a trend since at least 2011In April, Washington added New Delhi to a list of countries with insufficient intellectual property rights protections and considered sanctioning it. In December 2013, the United States arrested and strip-searched an Indian diplomat (Devyani Khobragade) on visa-fraud charges. India retaliated by investigating U.S. personnel in India for tax and visa compliance, withdrawing diplomatic privileges and cancelling high-level government visits. Indian media reported that the incident set back U.S.-Indian relations to their lowest point since India tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
Despite all of this, to be sure, India is not poised to unabashedly embrace China just because U.S.-Indian relations have cooled. But daylight between Washington and New Delhi does make it easier for Beijing to secure Indian neutrality regarding its rise. However, there is still hope for improving U.S.-Indian relations. The upcoming Obama-Modi summit will provide a golden opportunity for the United States to deepen its economic, military and diplomatic ties to India.
But even if no U.S.-Indian mutual-defense treaty ever arises, Washington should solidify its relationship with New Delhi. First, doing so will reduce doubts about U.S. staying power in Asia. China will be more likely to hesitate before challenging America’s regional friends, and those countries will be emboldened to resist China’s bullying. Second, strengthening India economically and militarily will help to contain China, even if those efforts take place independent of America’s. Indeed, the gap between Indian and Chinese power will narrow and India will be better positioned to enhance its neighbors’ military capacities and to lead (or at least co-lead) those smaller countries in balancing China (which, given India’s sensitivity to playing America’s deputy sheriff, New Delhi may prefer over a U.S.-Indian alliance led by Washington).
The Obama-Modi meeting will take place shortly after Xi visits Modi. Obama must take bold steps to show Modi that India’s future is best secured by closer ties to the United States and its partners.
