US threats and Pakistan
By Naeem SalikIt is time for Pakistan to take a correct position on the issue and inform the Americans that we are doing what is possible in very difficult circumstances but will not accept any bullying on this score
The recently released declassified parts of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) have again thrown Pakistan-US relations in a tailspin.
The report has generated a spate of negative commentaries and analyses in the US media and even the normally balanced newspapers like the Washington Post have editorially recommended US military action in Pakistans tribal areas.
Not to be left behind are presidential aspirants from both sides of the political divide. Senator Barrack Obama, who does not tire of criticising the war in Iraq seems to think the correct war-option is military action against alleged Al Qaeda targets on Pakistani soil. If there is actionable intelligence and if the Pakistanis dont cooperate, the US should take unilateral action. Meanwhile, his main Democratic rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, while refraining from talking of US military action on Pakistani territory chided Obama for taking the nuclear option off the table.
Threats are similarly being hurled by Republican presidential hopefuls and the chorus has been joined by the administration officials. Interestingly, while President George Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Richard Boucher have been trying to alleviate Pakistans concerns, the White House spokesman, Tony Snow, Homeland Security Advisor Townsend and Under Secretary of Sate Nicholas Burns duly tutored by his advisor Ashley Tellis have openly threatened Pakistan with military action unless it does as directed.
Only a few sane voices are advising caution.
It is difficult to assess whether the administration officials are deliberately playing the good-cop, bad-cop game or the administration itself is divided on how to respond to the NIE and lacks a coherent policy.
Despite being a superpower, the Americans are not known for their sense of history or geography. Surprisingly, most analysts who appear to consider the NIE as divine revelation are the same folks who have been criticising the doctored and poor quality intelligence on Iraq.
To add fuel to the fire, the US Congress has passed a legislation reminiscent of the infamous Pressler Law even as the administration bent over backwards to accommodate Indias demands in the recently finalised 123 agreement. Nick Burns has gone to the extent of declaring that conducting more nuclear tests is Indias sovereign right. He, however, does not seem to take into account the fact that there are other sovereign states in the region with similar sovereign rights granted them by the UN Charter.
Pakistan is a nation with a 160 million-plus population. It also has more than half-million well-trained professional soldiers, a fair-sized operational nuclear capability and a variety of proven delivery systems.
Many US experts who are suggesting direct US military intervention in the territory of yet another sovereign state and take into account the availability of US military assets based in the region tend to ignore the fact that the same assets also constitute vulnerabilities as they are in turn within the range of Pakistans military capabilities.
In any case, the recent anti-Pakistan campaign should serve as an eye-opener for us. The interesting thing is that this time Pakistan was even bestowed the title of a Major Non-NATO Ally. That should send a signal to all those states hankering for an alliance with the US.
Most Americans do not realise that the US and NATO forces are operating in Afghanistan a land locked country because of Pakistani largesse. If Pakistan withdraws the transit facility through Karachi port and the transportation of fuel and other logistic supplies through its territory, the operation in Afghanistan would come to a grinding halt in less than a week.
In case of any US misadventure in Pakistan the government would not be in a position to resist the public pressure to withdraw these facilities along with the suspension of Afghan transit trade which would bring that country to its knees within a week.
A French scholar currently working as the South Asia expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has, in a recent study, suggested that the US should open up a dialogue with Iran so that it could get transit route through that country to Afghanistan and dispense with its current dependence on Pakistan.
This is not strategic thinking; its fantasy! But of course the Americans can definitely try their luck with President Ahmadinejad. Perhaps he will be eager to roll out the red carpet for the American forces operating in Afghanistan.
It is time for Pakistan to take a correct position on the issue and inform the Americans that we are doing what is possible in very difficult circumstances but will not accept any bullying on this score.
The current debate in the National Assembly is a good omen. We need to further expand this public debate so as to develop a national consensus on our critical foreign policy decisions. We need to remember how Turkey got out of the bind in 2003 when under tremendous pressure to allow the northern prong of US offensive against Iraq to use its territory.
The writer is a former brigadier of Pakistan Army
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\08\09\story_9-8-2007_pg3_5
