The Pakistani Pivot from Saudi Arabia to China

[Phenomenal]

Bruce Riedel | April 23, 2015 8:23am

The Pakistani Pivot from Saudi Arabia to China

• China
• Pakistan
• Yemen
• Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s decision to launch a military intervention into Yemen represents a break with its past practice. Brushing aside the need for U.S. leadership or even participation, Saudi Arabia pushed it ahead with forming its own coalition from among its Arab and Muslim allies. But in dealing with Pakistan, traditionally one of its closest allies, Saudi Arabia is discovering that even close allies often have other priorities.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Rahel Sharif travel to Saudi Arabia again Thursday to explain why Pakistan won't join the war in Yemen. Saudi pressure has been behind the scenes but intense to get Pakistani troops into the war. Nawaz's brother Shabaz was pressed during a visit to Riyadh a week ago. The end of the air campaign may ease the pressure but that remains to be seen.

Meanwhile Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan this week with $46 billion in investment to build an economic corridor from Western China to the Persian Gulf. The Sharifs promised Xi that Pakistan will create a new special division of the Pakistani Army to protect Chinese workers in Pakistan. The "Special Security Division" will total 10,000 troops and be commanded by a two star. Half the men will come from the Special Services Group, Pakistan's elite commando force. The force will have its own organic air support.

So no troops for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 10,000 troops for the People’s Republic of China. There are major differences in the specifics of course: troops for a foreign war versus troops at home; compensation for past payment versus securing future investment; Islamic unity versus Pakistan's all-weather ally since 1962.

But don’t focus on the details. It is clear Sharif has made his pivot. And like the United States, Pakistan would like to move away from the Middle East and toward East Asia.

• 
  Bruce Riedel

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Why either/or?

It's not a zero-sum game. In fact Pakistan and China both closely cooperate with Saudi Arabia (and Iran), there is no reason not to cooperate strongly with all sides.

 

[Beast]

CHina is far bigger and more influential than Saudi. Our forex foreign reserve outpower anyother countries. CHina is also a technology and infrastructure power house while Saudi heavily depend on foreign import technologies. It doesn't take a genius to choose who.

Why either/or?

It's not a zero-sum game. In fact Pakistan and China both closely cooperate with Saudi Arabia (and Iran), there is no reason not to cooperate strongly with all sides.

But a realistic world do not work that way. And choice need to be make at some junction.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But a realistic world do not work that way. And choice need to be make at some junction.

Why is that?

Saudi has traditionally been close to America. Iran is currently trying to get close to America (nuclear deal).

So why should we choose one over the other? And which one do you think we should choose?

The current direction of the Chinese government is to cooperate with both, and I think that's the right thing to do. Unless one of them comes out strongly to support China in all of our territorial disputes.

 

[Beast]

Why is that?

Saudi has traditionally been close to America. Iran is currently trying to get close to America (nuclear deal).

So why should we choose one over the other? And which one do you think we should choose?

Are you serious? Iran trying to get close to US? Saudi and Iran can never get together. Pakistan shall stay out of Shia, Sunni feud. This left the Chinese option with investment and money inject. Saudi is agitated by Pakistan decision to stay out of their feud. They will not proven any more money or assist to Pakistan.

 

[Black Mamba1]

Bruce Riedel | April 23, 2015 8:23am

The Pakistani Pivot from Saudi Arabia to China

• China
• Pakistan
• Yemen
• Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s decision to launch a military intervention into Yemen represents a break with its past practice. Brushing aside the need for U.S. leadership or even participation, Saudi Arabia pushed it ahead with forming its own coalition from among its Arab and Muslim allies. But in dealing with Pakistan, traditionally one of its closest allies, Saudi Arabia is discovering that even close allies often have other priorities.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Rahel Sharif travel to Saudi Arabia again Thursday to explain why Pakistan won't join the war in Yemen. Saudi pressure has been behind the scenes but intense to get Pakistani troops into the war. Nawaz's brother Shabaz was pressed during a visit to Riyadh a week ago. The end of the air campaign may ease the pressure but that remains to be seen.

Meanwhile Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan this week with $46 billion in investment to build an economic corridor from Western China to the Persian Gulf. The Sharifs promised Xi that Pakistan will create a new special division of the Pakistani Army to protect Chinese workers in Pakistan. The "Special Security Division" will total 10,000 troops and be commanded by a two star. Half the men will come from the Special Services Group, Pakistan's elite commando force. The force will have its own organic air support.

So no troops for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 10,000 troops for the People’s Republic of China. There are major differences in the specifics of course: troops for a foreign war versus troops at home; compensation for past payment versus securing future investment; Islamic unity versus Pakistan's all-weather ally since 1962.

But don’t focus on the details. It is clear Sharif has made his pivot. And like the United States, Pakistan would like to move away from the Middle East and toward East Asia.

• 
  Bruce Riedel

This shift is not good for India probably, but surely good for Pakistan. At least China will not export terrorism along with aids. China is much trustworthy friend than these Arabic Muslim Kingdoms which has only oil nothing else

 

[hussain0216]

We are friends with both

We have a long standing strategic alliance with Saudi, we will defend Saudi territorial integrity
we just dont want to be dragged into a war

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Are you serious? Iran trying to get close to US? Saudi and Iran can never get together. Pakistan shall stay out of Shia, Sunni feud. This left the Chinese option with investment and money inject. Saudi is agitated by Pakistan decision to stay out of their feud. They will not proven any more money or assist to Pakistan.

Iran is trying to make a nuclear deal with the US. Haven't you seen the news?

Chinese diplomacy is all about securing Chinese interests. Why should we choose one over the other, when we are succeeding right now in cooperating with both?

 

[Beast]

Iran is trying to make a nuclear deal with the US. Haven't you seen the news?

It does not mean they try to rosy with US. They just try to off some pressure becos of the sanction.
But Saudi and US r/s has show crack. First is US less dependent on oil. Second. US is less active in middle east as show by Yemen campaign.

 

[!eon]

Pivot ?

 

[PakGuns]

This Bruce Riedel totally ignored the fact that those 10,000 troop will be carrying their ops within boundaries of Pakistan while saudis want troops for yemen invasion....how pathetic try to relate the two -_-

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

It does not mean they try to rosy with US. They just try to off some pressure becos of the sanction.
But Saudi and US r/s has show crack. First is US less dependent on oil. Second. US is less active in middle east as show by Yemen campaign.

The Iran-US nuclear deal is strongly opposed by Saudi. There are definitely cracks showing in the US-Saudi relationship.

The dust has not settled yet in the Middle East. Too early to choose a side.

And if we ever do choose a side, that country must also support China in our territorial disputes. Let us see which one will first declare that Diaoyutai is Chinese sovereign territory? Otherwise it is better to continue cooperating with both.

 

[Audio]

we will defend Saudi territorial integrity
we just dont want to be dragged into a war

What if defending Saudi territorial integrity will mean getting dragged into a war?

 

[hussain0216]

What if defending Saudi territorial integrity will mean getting dragged into a war?

If the war is to actually defend Arabia then so be it, especially the holy cities

I think negotiations are on with Saudi Arabia to have a whole bunch of Pakistani troops permanently stationed in Arabia armed with Pakistani weapons bought for by the Saudis


Aslong as we negotiate properly Pakistan can build powerful alliances

Having China, Turkey and the GCC in our immediate corner isnt a bad option

 

[Audio]

If the war is to actually defend Arabia then so be it, especially the holy cities

I think negotiations are on with Saudi Arabia to have a whole bunch of Pakistani troops permanently stationed in Arabia armed with Pakistani weapons bought for by the Saudis


Aslong as we negotiate properly Pakistan can build powerful alliances

Having China, Turkey and the GCC in our immediate corner isnt a bad option

I would tread carefully. There is a new boss in town, and you've just put a dent in his plans to show himself as a victorius leader infront of his people. In one of his first acts as new boss at that.
Although it appears he has a big enough grip on power to sidetrack the prearranged succesion line in favour of his son.
My personal opinion is, you should have sent at least a token show of force. I know soldiers are needed at home, but still....it's not like Saudis haven't sent you stuff too. And yes, i know, not all of it was good...