Similarities between China of today, and Japan of the 70s and 80s

[Bussard Ramjet]

There are many uncanny similarities:

1. Both countries at that time were going through what is called a demographic dividend. When the dependency ratio hits lowest, and the labor force is highest as percentage of population.
2. Both countries had a big real estate and infrastructure sector, with a real estate bubble.
3. Both countries ran huge trade surpluses.
4. Both countries had very high savings rate
5. Both countries had companies, that were beating their international rivals, and capturing market share
6. Both countries have had below replacement fertility rate for quite some time
7. Both countries didn't pay much attention to their demographic problems, instead putting their trust on their own superiority, and on robotic revolution and the like
8. Both countries were seen as emerging major power, to be seen on peer terms with the United States
9. Both countries had increasing national prestige and brand, where people were attracted to learn their language for business, education and trade purposes.

@AndrewJin @TaiShang @Shotgunner51 @Nihonjin1051 @FairAndUnbiased @tranquilium @Chinese Bamboo @Chinese-Dragon @Kyle Sun

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Hayashi86.pdf

This article analyses why Japan has high savings rate. It makes me chuckle, because you can replace Japan with China, and the study sounds similar to a lot many of the ones that we see today.

 

[Beast]

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Hayashi86.pdf

This article analyses why Japan has high savings rate. It makes me chuckle, because you can replace Japan with China, and the study sounds similar to a lot many of the ones that we see today.

China in 70s or 80s? That means China can still progress for another 2 decades. We are on the way to finish the job that Japan failed to accomplish. Take Over USA.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

I really like this version of self-deceiving ostrich policy that the US has newly adopted，to suggest that China is somehow following Japan‘s path，heading into “lost decades”.

It is the only comfort for the Americans when they cry themselves to sleep every nite thinking about china’s rise.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China in 70s or 80s? That means China can still progress for another 2 decades. We are on the way to finish the job that Japan failed to accomplish. Take Over USA.

It can, if it takes the necessary reforms.

Also, China is facing a worse demographic situation than Japan did when it was at a level of China's development, due to China's demographic policy, which will lead to potential problems coming early.

Also, even if China become bigger than USA economically, it won't be able to cancel a lot of influence, because US doesn't operate alone. US leads NATO, which is based not only on real politik, but also on similar ideological basis as well.

Well, Japan is always a US lapdog, and they were blackmailed into submission to sign the Plaza Accord.

Remember the rule number one, a dog is never allowed to surpass its master, while this rule doesn't apply to China.

Japan is only allowed to make some electronics and civilian cars, while the high end technological domains are always monopolized by the US, and Japan is never allowed to enter into these domains. Hence, they have to buy all the high end military gadgets from the US.

China on the other hand doesn't have these problems.

Also, China and Japan have nothing in common just because both are East Asian nation. Japan is a self-aggrandizing nation with little strategic sight and patience, while China is a nation with full of wisdom and patience. China is always deceiving its opponent by pretending weak, that's why she has won a lot of time for the development.

China and Japan have far more in common than you admit.

Especially in terms of economic, demographic, and cultural fundamentals.

Also, Japan is allied with US, but not a "lapdog."

Japan signed Plaza Accord, to ensure US market for Japan, without which it would not have prospered.

Japan tried entering Aviation before, but was unable to do so. Japan also produces a lot of high end technological stuff, both military and civilian that even the US procures from Japan, like carbon fibres, batteries etc.

Also, Japan was also known for its strategic vision and planning in the 80s. If you read news reports from that time, every one praised Japan for it, in the west and else where.

China should take Japan's case seriously and study what went wrong. It will largely come to the conclusion that Demographics was the thing that bit Japan in the ***. And China's demographic issues are worse.

I really like this version of self-deceiving ostrich policy that the US has newly adopted，to suggest that China is somehow following Japan‘s path，heading into “lost decades”.

It is the only comfort for the Americans when they cry themselves to sleep every nite thinking about china’s rise.

While I agree that there are many Americans that make this point for their own satisfaction, yet similarities can't be wished away.

The national power of a country largely depends on its domestic GDP, and the size of domestic markets, which are largely determined by human resoures- both their size, structure, and quality.

China is producing too little babies to replace the labor force. The labor force has peaked, and will continue to decline from now on, which will put downward pressure on economic growth.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

What the hell this Indian guy is desperate to convince us that we are same as Japanese?

Just because we and Japanese both vaguely belong to the East Asian group?

But in fact the difference between the Chinese and Japanese is by far bigger than the difference between the Indians and Pakistanis.

Japan can produce some partial technological substitution for the US, but they can never handle the entire ecosystem and supply chain like the US and China.

PS, Japanese love the denial and living in their own little fantasy world, while we don't.

We can see our mistakes and try to correct it, not to deny it like the Japanese.

China was a civilization originator and a strong empire for over thousand years, while Japan is always an island nation and never achieves something tremendous.

 

[jammersat]

China was a civilization originator and a strong empire for over thousand years, while Japan is always an island nation and never achieves something tremendous.

What tremendous thing has china contributed to humanity ? other than the great wall of china that was erected in self-defense ? please don't tell me my iphone 6 is a tremendous chinese thing

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

What tremendous thing has china contributed to humanity ? other than the great wall of china that was erected in self-defense ? please don't tell me my iphone 6 is a tremendous chinese thing

The four great inventions.

China contributed the paper to the world. Without it, the human's technological advancement would perhaps postpone for several centuries.

China contributed the four great inventions to the world, while China became delusional and believed that no one could ever surpass her. However, the West seized with these available technologies and surpassed China during the renaissance era.

China eventually learned this fatal mistake for underestimating its potential competitor, so we are going to catch up again with hard work and dedication.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

What the hell this Indian guy is desperate to convince us that we are same as Japanese?

Just because we and Japanese both vaguely belong to the East Asian group?

But in fact the difference between the Chinese and Japanese is by far bigger than the difference between the Indians and Pakistanis.

Japan can produce some partial technological substitution for the US, but they can never handle the entire ecosystem and supply chain like the US and China.

PS, Japanese love the denial and living in their own little fantasy world, while we don't.

We can see our mistakes and try to correct it, not to deny it like the Japanese.

China was a civilization originator and a strong empire for over thousand years, while Japan is always an island nation and never achieves something tremendous.

Yes, you can run bigger supply chains because of the size of population.

But, in many other ways, there are very many similarities.

I listed some of the ones that I see directly. Try contradicting them?

By 2035, China is going to have as much as a quarter of population over 60 years old.

The four great inventions.

China contributed the paper to the world. Without it, the human's technological advancement would perhaps postpone for several centuries.

China contributed the four great inventions to the world, while China became delusional and believed that no one could ever surpass her. However, the West seized with these available technologies and surpassed China during the renaissance era.

China eventually learned this fatal mistake for underestimating its potential competitor, so we are going to catch up again with hard work and dedication.

Yes, you are trying to catch up.

But, you are doing one another big fatal mistake- underestimating humans and their power.

You are deliberately trying to decrease your labor force, and consequently the potential of your market and economy.

 

[jammersat]

The four great inventions.

China contributed the paper to the world. Without it, the human's technological advancement would perhaps postpone for several centuries.

the average western academian will tell you that paper comes from the egyptian papyrus , if you indeed invented the paper , you still have a long time ahead to prove it to the world

China contributed the four great inventions to the world, while China became delusional and believed that no one could ever surpass her. However, the West seized with these available technologies and surpassed China during the renaissance era.

most of which are myths , chinese like to say the Cannon was invented by them and every time they try to they will debunk it for you ..

China eventually learned this fatal mistake for underestimating its potential competitor, so we are going to catch up again with hard work and dedication.

well , good luck

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

the average western academian will tell you that paper comes from the egyptian papyrus , if you indeed invented the paper , you still have a long time ahead to prove it to the world




most of which are myths , chinese like to say the Cannon was invented by them and every time they try to they will debunk it for you ..



well , good luck

You even want to deny China's contribution for the paper invention?

Some other civilization might come up with some convergent idea, but no serious historian can deny that paper technology that spread through the world was originated from China.

Some white supremacists in the West want to wage a racial war against China, that's why they are attempting to erase every significant contribution made by China. Just like before the genocide against the Native Americans, the Native Americans were generally portrayed as some worthless savage beasts.

You as an Iranian should not buy these white supremacist theories from the West, since these guys would never treat you Iranians as its fellow white people.

China and Iran are both thousands years old civilization, and we should respect each other's achievement, not to fall into the divide conquer trap set by the white supremacists.

 

[jammersat]

You even want to deny China's contribution for the paper invention?

Some other civilization might come up with some convergent idea, but no serious historian can deny that paper technology that spread through the world was originated from China.

Some white supremacists in the West want to wage a racial war against China, that's why they are attempting to erase every significant contribution made by China. Just like before the genocide against the Native Americans, the Native Americans were portrayed as some worthless savage beasts.

You as an Iranian should not buy these white supremacist theories from the West, since these guys would never treat you Iranians as its white fellow.

China and Iran are both thousands years old civilization, and we should respect each other's achievement, not to fall into the divide conquer trap set by the white supremacists.

the invention of paper is like the invention of the wheel , if you try to reclaim it , they will rather taunt you than challenge you

iran and china aren't friends

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

the invention of paper is like the invention of the wheel , if you try to reclaim it , they will rather taunt you than challenge you

The wheel was invented by the steppe Aryans, and China was influenced by the steppe Aryans during the ancient time.

While the usable paper technology undoubtedly came from China during the Han Dynasty.

iran and china aren't friends

So you wanna befriend with some nation who constantly threatens to bomb you guys?

 

[jammersat]

The wheel was invented by the steppe Aryans, and China was influenced by the steppe Aryans during the ancient time.

While the usable paper technology undoubtedly came from China during the Han Dynasty.

you have to convince the western acamedians before me , that is , the old grumpy white men in western universities who teach such courses , i'm a no one , if you think paper is chinese invention then write some papers on it

So you wanna befriend with some nation who constantly threatens to bomb you guys?

i don't wanna befriend anyone , but yes iran will eventually become friends with the US , probably more so than china , that's the iranian mindset

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

you have to convince the western acamedians before me , that is , the old grumpy white men in western universities who teach such courses , i'm a no one , if you think paper is chinese invention then write some papers on it

You cannot replace the official theory with the alternative theory when the evidence is so obvious for the official one.

The origin of the usable paper spread around the world was invented by China around the 2nd century BC, and it was spread into the western hemisphere around the 8th century AD by the Arabs (China was defeated by the Islamic Caliphate in the Central Asia and many craftsmen were brought in the Middle East first) into Europe.

Some Christian scholars even want to challenge the evolution theory, but that won't change anything at the end.