January 10, 2012
Dangerous game of brinkmanship
The ongoing exchange between Iran and the US and its allies over the Hormuz Strait has raised tensions in the region
If you rely on the major English-language satellite channels for your news, the dangerous ratcheting-up of tensions between Tehran and Washington may have escaped your radar. For some reason best known to network heads Iran’s belligerent words and actions and the responses of Washington and London are an afterthought compared to extensive TV coverage of the GOP race and events in Syria and Iraq.
The scarcity of mainstream television news and analysis on Iran hit me after I spoke to friends in the UK who knew little to nothing about the potential fall-out from Iran’s war games in the Strait of Hormuz or its threat to seal this vital waterway to shipping. Conversely, last week’s feel good story, the US rescue of Iranian fishermen from pirates, looms large on our screens.
I can only speculate as to the thinking behind such low-key Iran reporting; it could be that western governments have advised broadcasters against heightening sensitivities or scaremongering. Or it’s possible that news editors are not taking the highly-charged rhetoric coming from both sides seriously.
Certainly, the respected Lebanon-based political analyst Rami Khouri doesn’t believe the potential for war is great because such disruption of the oil-flow would result in western economic suicide. Logically, he’s spot on. A full scale military face-off between Washington/London/Tel Aviv and Tehran in the Gulf is unthinkable. Yet, history tells us the unthinkable sometimes happens when muscle-flexing is taken to extremes.
At the other end of the spectrum are Israeli newspapers and websites. If you browse the DebkaFile, said to have links to the Mossad, for instance, you’ll be heading off to buy a hard hat. The website’s top story on Saturday headlined, Thousands of US troops land in Israel. Aircraft carrier coming soon, maintains that “they are part of the joint US-Israel deployment ready for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict”.
An earlier DebkaFile report tells us that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are on “War alert for early US-Iran clash”. Personally I take DebkaFile with a huge shovel of salt; some of its stories are accurate, others are patently Israeli government disinformation.
Just as extreme is the Fox News brigade. Fox’s Sean Hannity and his guests Fox News contributor Angela McGlowan, former Republican Senator Alfonse D’Amato and Donald Trump all agree that President Barack Obama is likely to go to war with Iran to increase his re-election chances. “I say he starts a war with Iran before the election which will make it very hard for the Republicans to win” predicted Trump. “He’s Machiavellian. He’ll do anything to win an election,” McGlowan said. “He’s a total political animal,” was D’Amato’s two cents worth.
Here’s what we do know with some certainty.
Israel’s hawkish Netanyahu-led government has been pressing the US to give the green light for an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites for years and according to former Mossad chief Meir Dagan has firmed-up strike plans. Dagan has termed his government “reckless and irresponsible” and says he did his best to thwart such “a dangerous adventure” when he was in office but he’s now “afraid that there is no one to stop Bibi [Benjamin Netanyahu] and [Ehud] Barak”.
Desperate move
New anti-Iranian US sanctions targeting the country’s Central Bank are impacting Iran’s economy causing its currency to plummet. Despite protestations to the contrary, signs are that the Iranian government is seriously worried. It’s no coincidence that the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is currently touring Latin America seeking support from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador, characterised by the Obama administration as a “desperate” move. In response to upcoming US and European sanctions against Iran’s oil industry, Iran’s navy chief warned that it would be easy for Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for 35 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.
If that threat were carried out, experts believe oil prices would rise by 50 per cent the following day. A spokeswoman for the US Navy Fifth fleet based off Bahrain said her country’s navy is “always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.” Britain has made it clear that any such attempt would be met with military action.
In recent weeks, Tehran has gone on the offensive. Iran has just completed 10 days of naval exercises in Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden during which it tested short, mid and long-range missiles and has vowed to shortly conduct new war games in the crucial Gulf shipping lanes. Iran has also warned the American aircraft carrier, USS John Stennis not to return to the Gulf. The US says it plans to patrol the Gulf as usual and has announced preparations for joint military exercises with Israel, the most extensive to date.
On Saturday, the UK threw its hat into the ring by announcing that it’s deploying its most technologically sophisticated warship HMS Daring in Gulf Waters which will be joined by other destroyers if necessary.
I doubt anyone knows for certain how all this will pan out, not even the players themselves. This is a game of chicken fraught with unintended consequences. Just a single lit match could set the region aflame and if Iran finds itself cornered it may decide to strike it.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com Some of the comments may be considered for publication.
gulfnews : Dangerous game of brinkmanship
