Shale energy: lifeline for Pakistan? - I
By Naveed Ahmad
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s quest for energy gets more desperate by the day while it has limited capacity to afford the options present before her. Sanctions-marred Iran has geo-political ramifications while solar and wind energy are financially too capital intensive. Dr Asim Hussain, advisor to former President Asif Ali Zardari, brought home a term shale gas after a 2009 study placed Pakistan amongst top 19th country with promising potential amounting to 51 trillion cubic feet of reserves.
The hype further stepped up in 2011 when a US government department estimated Pakistan’s shale gas reserves to 105 trillion cubic feet and hidden oil assets worth 8 billion barrels, ranking the country fifth in the world and even above Canada. If these technologically recoverable assets are exploited, Pakistan can become self-sufficient in its energy needs for five decades.
Given such mind-blowing figures, Pakistan’s ministry of petroleum and natural resources pinned hope for exploration of the projected reserves.
Daily Times is attempting to bring to the fore the myth and reality behind Pakistan’s shale gas dreams in this series of indepth stories. Shale gas is no different from the popular natural gas except for the fact that it’s trapped deep inside the earth within rock formations. Advances in technology have already led the US to increase its production, thus lowering the gas price to a 10-year low in 2012.
Economical and environment friendly it may be but shale gas extraction process has attracted widespread criticism in America in particular and globally in general. Shale gas extraction involves fracturing of rocks trapping hydrocarbons with extensive use of water with extreme pressure. The escaping gas is then is collected on earth’s surface and piped with the existing methods. The process of ‘fracking’ essentially causes rocks to break, which geophysicists and geologists suspect can cause earthquake in seismically active zones such as Pakistan’s pothohar region, Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
According to pioneering study about Pakistan’s shale gas potential by the Sustainable Policy Development Institute, the country has 827,365 sq kilometers sedimentary basic area with gas and oil content exploitable through fracking process. Besides, environmentalists fear that not only the process of fracking using high quantities of water will add to water scarcity in certain parts of the world but may also contaminate the water reservoirs in the earth’s crust.
The SDPI study, led by Engineer Arshad Abbasi, estimates that the country’s shale gas exploit promise prosperity and sustainability. ‘Shale gas viability and prospects in Pakistan’ projects generation of 750,000 jobs over a period of time while if used for power generation, the consumer will get Rs 4 per unit.
“The reserves of shale gas in Balochistan and Koh-e-Sulaiman will generate economic activity,” claims the report. Dr Gulfraz Ahmad, who is member of energy planning and development advisory committee and chairman of Planning Commission’s task force on shale gas exploitation, believes that pro-active policies of the government can result in the shale gas boom within five to eight year.
Daily Times learnt that the idea of exploiting shale gas does not figure very high in the Nawaz government priorities so far. Though the advisory committee on energy planning and development in its two meetings has chosen chairman for the planning commission’s task force on shale energy, notification for its members has yet to be issued.
Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and Planning Commission’s member energy Rab Nawaz are relevant officials for the shale energy initiative. Since the last meeting in February, there has been no serious move towards speeding up the process for shale energy exploits. Detailing challenges to the shale gas exploration, the SDPI report points out lack of policy and regulatory framework; homegrown technology and skill development; and comprehensive core analysis through geological, petrophysical and geo mechanical model.
Dr Gulfraz remarked that US study on Pakistan shale gas potential left much to be desired and “we need to learn much more about our reservers technological parameters”. He opines the question of technologically recoverable shale gas follows it being economically recoverable. The veteran petroleum engineering expert estimates that Pakistan will need an investment to the tune of $15billion to $20billion in realizing the shale energy potential for reaping its benefits. A senior official of a petroleum engineering corporation undermined the fears of sub-soil water contamination and seismic activity through hydraulic fracking.
He believes that half a million shale gas wells are operative in the US without any consequences propagated by the environment lobby. Requesting anonymity, he, however, raised a question mark with regard security situation in the country. “There is no homegrown expertise in this field and foreign engineers and geophysits won’t be comfortable in the existing law and order situation in many parts of Pakistan.” Putting shale gas development atop national energy agenda tops the SDPI reports list of recommendation as Pakistan’s bureaucrats have proven record of lousy decision-making, with the nation paying heavy opportunity cost.
Shale energy: lifeline for Pakistan? - I
