Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

Discussion in 'Pakistani Siasat' started by RiazHaq, Aug 3, 2012.

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  1. asif1986
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    asif1986 FULL MEMBER

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    There were in karachi.It was confirmed by european observers who said that in some constituiencies voter turnout crossed 90 or 100% mark.
  2. RiazHaq
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    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    There are big new car show-rooms and shopping malls popping up in small towns all over Pakistan.

    Pakistan's rural economy is booming due to higher crop prices.

    About Rs 200-300 billion are being transferred in income from urban to rural areas since 2009.

    Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Rural Economy Showing Strength
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  3. REHAN NIAZI FALCON
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    REHAN NIAZI FALCON FULL MEMBER

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    thanks for cheap troll
  4. masoomchichora
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    masoomchichora FULL MEMBER

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    Thanks to Gen.(R) Ahmad Shujah Pasha (Maker of PTI)
    Original Post By AdeelFaheem
    ab yeh bhi batado ganjay ko kisnay banaya ganja kis ki test tube baby hai :rofl:
  5. Devil Soul
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    Devil Soul ELITE MEMBER

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    i still remember a guy in my home city who belonged to a well known family & was very famous among locals... his jalsa's were HUGE compared to others trying their luck in elections, but in reality he neva won, so these prediction are useless... :D
    btw i think it will be hung Parliament with no party having majority...
  6. Meengla
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    Meengla SENIOR MEMBER

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    Riaz,
    I admire your dedication to Pakistan. This post is one more positive contribution from you. Too bad the partisan nature of the bloggers here made it that, so far, not one person has 'thanked' the OP.
    Indeed, the transfer to Rs. 200-300 billion per year to rural Pakistan since 2008 is a news for me. This can have a significant impact in the elections. Also, up to 10 million Pakistanis are reported to be benefiting from various PPP schemes like the BISP etc. Fanboys here need to understand that ALL the Pakistani bloggers, all over the world are probably less than half of the number of PPP-voters in Lyari alone. Making noises about PTI in the blogspace would not necessarily translate to electoral realities.

    While I am planning to vote for PTI, I am not anaware of the fact that PPP is a 'creed' with still mass-following in rural areas of Pakistan. The party has consistently either grabbed 1st or second spots in the most number of votes or the most numbers of seats since 1970. PPP is also the only proven national-level political party in Pakistan. Hating a party like that because of visceral hatred of Zardari is not good for Pakistan.

    As to the 2008 elections--they were mostly fair. If they were not then PMLQ+MQM alliance would be still in power and Musharraf would be still the president. So, 'bogus voting' claims aside, the elections were fair enough: Ill-deeds were done but they were done by most parties involved.

    And, oh, the PMNL vs PTI war is certainly benefiting PPP.

    Keep up the good work Riaz!
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  7. RiazHaq
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    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    Pakistan's economy is not as bad as often reported by the media.

    Indus Motor Company earned Rs. 4.3 billion in net income on sales of Rs. 75 billion in 2011-12, representing an increase 57% in net income and 25% in total revenue over previous year. The company that is 37.5% owned by Japan’s Toyota Motors sold over 55,000 cars during the financial year that ended on June 30, 2012, its highest ever for a single year. Both revenues and profits were the highest in the company’s history in Pakistan, according to media reports. Pakistan's total car market was about 235,000 units in July 2011-June 2012 period.

    Undeterred by the gloom and doom reports in the media, Pakistani consumers are continuing to spend and private consumption has now reached 75 percent of GDP. It rose 11.6% in real terms in 2011-12 compared with just 3.7% growth a year earlier , according to Economic Survey of Pakistan. In fact, many analysts believe that Pakistan's official GDP of $220 billion is understated by as much as 50%, buttressing a recent claim by the head of Karachi Stock Exchange that Pakistan's real GDP is closer to $300 billion.

    I believe that even a modest effort to increase tax collection can significantly improve Pakistan's state finances to support higher public sector investments in energy, education, health care and infrastructure.

    Haq's Musings: Toyota Pakistan Auto Profits Up 57% in 2012
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  8. AdeelFaheem
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    AdeelFaheem FULL MEMBER

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    2013 govt. PPP
  9. thedesihunter
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    My opinion may differ a little, so present some points below:

    Firstly, the election results from 2008 were influenced by the Murder of BB, that helped the PPP gain the sympathy vote at the time resulting in an extra almost 30 seats compared to the previous election results in 2002. Being a Pakistani, I would not expect PPP to win 91 seats again in 2013 based on their performance in the past 5 years.

    Interestingly, 48% of the Voter at present is between 18 -35 Years and out of which 20% is between 18 - 25 Years. The youth will play a major role in deciding the fate of Pakistan.

    General Public is very aware of the facts now thanks to the media so i don't think the traditional culture of politics would work very well at-least not in the Urban Areas.

    I don't personally think Parties like PML-Q and ANP would win even half the number of the seats they Won in 2008

    Last but not the least, You have mentioned A few companies that have progressed and made huge profits in the last 5 years, and also PPP led policies has benefited the Rural Farmer but we should not forget the failures of this Coalitions Government in almost every other sector.

    We have a habit of forgiving our politicians for all what they do and forget that Elections is the only time when we can make the right decision. I really hope and pray that we all Vote and make the right decision this time.
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  10. RiazHaq
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    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    Here's a Dawn story on deal making in Gujarat for 2013 elections:

    A group from the Nawabzada family, including a former MNA and an ex-MPA, has announced joining the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, citing their reservations over the Pakistan People’s Party’s alliance with their arch rivals the Chaudhrys of Gujrat who head the PML-Q.

    Former MNA Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan, ex-MPA and former Gujrat district council chairman Nawabzada Muzaffar Ali Khan, former opposition leader in the district council Nawabzada Tahirul Mulk and others made the announcement on Saturday at a meeting with PML-N leadership in Lahore.

    Welcoming the prominent political and social personalities of Gujrat into PML-N folds, Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif said their joining had strengthened the PML-N. He said with the latest addition, the party would gain in Gujrat.

    The newcomers said Nawaz Sharif was the only leader who could steer the country out of crisis and they had full trust in the PML-N leadership.

    Both Mazhar Ali and Muzaffar Ali are elder brothers of People’s Party stalwart Nawabzada Ghazanfar Ali Gull who has been a senior member of the PPP’s central executive committee and also remained an adviser to the prime minister.

    Mr Gull had been a member of the Punjab as well as national assemblies back in 1988 and 1993, respectively.

    Despite the defections in his family, Mr Gull vowed to remain a life-long PPP loyalist.

    Talking to this scribe about the defections, Mr Gull said sarcastically that though Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif had proved their ‘friendship’ with him by creating a split into Nawabzada family, the move could prove beneficial for their combined rivals (the Chaudhrys).

    He vowed to continue to oppose the Chaudhrys while remaining in the PPP and to contest the next general elections against them “whether the party gives me a ticket or not”.

    Mr Gull’s elder brothers have been in contact with the PML-N leadership for the last one year and finally the party managed to get a breakthrough.

    However, some keen observers of local politics are of the view that the development would neither prove beneficial for the Nawabzadas nor the PML-N as according to them Mr Gull was the actual ‘crowd puller’ among the Nawabzadas as he had been in the active politics since 1988 and contested all the general elections since then.

    They say only Mr Gull could prove an attraction for the pro-PPP and anti-Chaudhrys voters in the coming polls in NA-140 where he had been defeated by incumbent federal minister Chaudharys Wajahat Hussain in the last two general elections.

    Nawabzada Tahirul Mulk, a nephew of Mr Gull, said Nawabzada group had never accepted the PPP’s coalition with the Q League and they had been sharing their reservations with the party high-command but it did not pay heed to them. Now, when the elections are approaching, they had no option but to join the PML-N, he added.

    He said the family had also been trying to persuade Mr Gull to join them in their move but in vain.

    In 1985 general elections, the Nawabzada family had also been divided into two factions. The group that has now joined the PML-N had decided to contest the non-party elections as independent candidates in violation of the PPP’s boycott of the electoral exercise. The both brothers — Mazhar Ali and Muzaffar Ali – were elected as MNA and MPA, receptively. Mr Gull and his cousin and former MNA late Nawabzada Zafar Mehdi, who was then PPP Gujrat district president, had honored the PPP’s decision of boycott and stayed away from the election.

    Following the PML-Q’s joining the coalition government, the PPP has been suffering big blows in the district where a good number of its followers have either joined the PML-N or the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf.....

    PPP loses more Gujrat
  11. RiazHaq
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    RiazHaq SENIOR MEMBER

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    In recent by-elections, PML(N) won the National Assembly seat already held by it and for the one Punjab assembly seat PML (N) did pick up, their candidate had previously won the seat on a Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) ticket. Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) backed one independent candidate who came in second in Sahiwal :

    NA 162 Sahiwal

    Newly inducted PML-N member Chaudhry Zahid Iqbal won back his NA seat with 75,966 votes, while independent candidate Rai Hassan Nawaz followed with 65,775 votes. The seat was vacated by Iqbal when he was in the PPP; however, he went on to later join the PML-N. According to the PML-N’s media office, Iqbal defeated Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-backed independent candidate Rai Hassan Nawaz.

    NA 107 Gujrat

    According to unofficial results, PML-N candidate Malik Hanif Awan bagged 70,434 votes, while PML-Q’s Rehman Naseer got 49,074 votes till the filing of the story. This seat was vacated by a PML-N MNA.

    PP 26 Jehlum

    PML-N-backed candidate Ch Khadim Hussain got 73,905 votes, while independent candidate Raja Muhammad Afzal Khan was the runner up. This seat was vacated by a PML-N member, who left the party due to intra-party differences. After winning, Hussain announced to join the PML-N.

    PP 226 Sahiwal

    Even though this seat was vacated by a PML-Q member, PML-N candidate Muhammad Hanif Jutt bagged 42,294 votes, while PML-Q’s Naseem Iqbal was the runner up.

    PP 92 Gujranwala

    PML-N candidate Nawaz Chohan bagged 36,537 votes, while PPP’s Lala Asad followed with 16,492 votes. This seat was vacated by a PML-N member.

    PP 122 Sialkot

    PML-N’s candidate Muhammad Akram bagged 27,291 votes, while PPP’s Raja Aamir received 4,797 votes. This seat was vacated by PML-N.

    PP 129 Sialkot

    PML-N candidate Mohsin Ashraf bagged 52,195 votes, while PML-Q’s Ch Ansar Iqbal got 30,148 votes. This seat was vacated by the PML-N.

    PP 133 Norowal

    PML-Q’s candidate Chaudhry Umar Sharif bagged 28,998 votes, while PML-N’s Dr Niamat Ali followed closely with 22,537 votes. This seat was vacated by PML-N’s Dr Tahir Ali Javed.

    PS-21 Naushero Feroz-III

    According to unofficial results from 106 out of 129 polling stations, PPP candidate Syed Sarfaraz Shah bagged more than 29,850 votes, while National Peoples Party’s Syed Abrar Shah trailed behind with 21,552 votes.

    The seat had fallen vacant following the resignation of PPP’s Dr Ahmed Ali Shah for possessing dual nationality.

    Although there were 16 candidates contesting the by-polls from the area, the main contenders were Sarfaraz Shah, Abrar Shah and independent candidate Zohaib Shah, who is the nephew of PPP MNA Syed Zafar Ali Shah.

    By-elections: PML-N shows strength in Punjab, bags 7 of 8 seats – The Express Tribune
  12. mr42O
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    mr42O SENIOR MEMBER

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    PTI was found 16 years ago which post did Pasha had ? and can u plz show me one evidence linking PTI to ISI ?? No u cant so grow ip m8
  13. RayKalm
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    Anyone who supports someone other than PTI is a traitor to Pakistan. Why would you vote for parties who allow the Americans to do whatever they want to other sovereign nation?
  14. raja999
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    PTI Will win. Comeon pakistani people use your heart and mind when casting vote this time..........
  15. Fracker
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    It could be your desperate wish, but not reality. And after following SS Performance my and my baradaris vote is for PML-N.

    Any how little did change since 2012, so it will be good to share some updates... 2013 elections mainly covers 3-4 majority teams..

    1) PPP, PML-Q (Doubtful), ANP, and MQM (Doubtful).
    2) PML-N, PPPP Jamiat, JUI-F, PML-F, Awami National Party, and some independent candidates
    3) APML, PML, TAP, PML-Q (Doubtfule), MQM (Doubtful)

    Elections are pretty close yet PTI position is doubtful. They might join Group 3, or don't join anyone and create Group 4. From where I see, PML-N changes are brighter then others right now. Group 3 may be give some threat incase of PTI joining, otherwise Group 4 and Group 3 (establishment votes) will be divided into these two groups.. so less threat.

    PPP do worked alot on the repo while giving Free Jobs, work in interior sindh etc, but their situation can become unstable if PML-Q and MQM leaves Group 1. But this will also hurt position of Group 3.

    What ever, elections are still mess... and don't see anyone wining with clear majority..