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Is Pakistans future submarine programme sailing into troubled waters? By Usman Ansari, 01/08/2009
Its been a long time coming, and many had hoped that the deal would have been signed by now, but the deal for the first three HDW Type-214 submarines for Pakistan has yet to materialise. That may not be so bad, because as I reported in Defense News a while back, the deal is expected to be signed before the end of Pakistans financial year, which is in August. It will then be ratified by the German government, which would happen in or just after September.
However, speculation is rife that a spanner is being readied to be thrown into the works in favour of the hitherto discounted French submarine formerly known as Marlin (SFKAM), but now a member of the Scorpene family. There are malicious rumours doing the rounds that the French have been offering a better deal, (news to me, and also to everyone else Ive spoken to), and that the SFKAM is somehow back in the running even after the navy has painstakingly evaluated both designs, and chosen the Type-214, (ie the one that actually exists and is in service, because the SFKAM is nothing but a paper submarine which exists on nothing but paper, so cant actually be evaluated as a direct comparison).
The only way this can happen at this late stage, is Mr Ten-Percent, President Asif Ali Zardari himself, the man who sprung to fame strapping bombs to businessmens legs and getting them to hand over the contents of their bank accounts. The last time he was in a position to adversely hamper a defence deal he was Finance Minister (despite having no education to speak of beyond being a spiv with hardly any redeeming qualities, if any though he is rumoured to have killed his wife). As Finance Minister he demanded a hefty commission on a deal for some ex-French Air Force Mirage-2000s, (along with his dearly departed wife it has to be said we cant leave her out). The deal was consequently scrapped, and to this day the air force officially has no fighter with an operational beyond visual range air-to-air capability. (There is a bit of a riddle in there for the above brain dead, but more will become clear sometime in the future). Anyway, getting back to Zardari he is an all round bad dude with a reputation for unsavoury financial shenanigans. Currently, the French are trying to figure out if he was somehow involved in killing some French technicians working on the Agosta-90B project in 2002, who were blown up coming out of their hotel in Karachi. Apparently, Zardari was a tad annoyed he hadnt received his full kickback for the deal, and was so short of cash hed been reduced to rummaging about in the bin outside the local MacDonalds as a result. (Admittedly, I may be wrong about that last bit).
However, now that the French are in danger of losing their monopoly in flogging dodgy submarines to Pakistan (see below), and because the next generation Pakistan submarine project may involve around 14 submarines through the life of the programme, the chequebook, and wads of cash in brown paper bags, are back out again. The deal is after all worth billions and billions, so who cares if a few technicians died? Its not like they can be brought back to life or anything, and as they say: business is business. Thats callous I know, but Im not the one throwing cash about trying to elbow my way back into a submarine deal with a paper product, and ignoring the fact that the guy on the receiving end may have had his finger on the button that blew some compatriots to smithereens.
Pakistan should never have gone for French submarines in the first place. At the time the decision was made to purchase the Daphne class in the late 1960s, the navy had been told they would have the range to operate out into the Bay of Bengal from Karachi. When it was found that wasnt the case, and the submarines would only be able to operate in and around the Arabian Sea, the French merely shrugged their shoulders and made some lame excuse about a miscalculation. Theyd captured a client, and that is what counted. In fact there was nothing ever especially brilliant about the Daphne class. Sure, people will point out that PNS Hangor was the first submarine to have sunk an enemy warship in wartime since WWII, and since then only HMS Conqueror has managed to repeat the feat, (Falklands, 1982). However, I would put that down more to the professionalism of the Hangors crew, the particular environment the engagement took place, and the fact that INS Khukri was fairly old and at a disadvantage with regards systems. We also have to remember that the first torpedo fired failed (even after it passed directly under the keel of its intended target and didnt explode), and alerted the Indians to Hangors presence, nearly leading to her being sunk. It was a close run thing.
Instead the navy should have purchased the British Oberon class, which was the best diesel-electric submarine of the entire Cold War by far. Im not saying that because Im biased by being British, or because I hate the French. Im merely saying that because the Oberon class were the best diesel-electric submarines of the entire Cold War by far. Their exploits in the hands of Australian, British, and Canadian crews are stuff of legend. One day, Ill find out why Pakistan did not purchase them, but I suspect it was on grounds of cost, and because the British government at the time, (as it is now more than ever), was probably rabidly pro-Indian. Admittedly the British, in a fit of insanity, killed their own conventional submarine industry, and their customers were taken by others, not least the Germans with the Type-209 series.
The Type-209 was another missed opportunity for Pakistan. Sadly, it wasnt available at the time when decision was made for the Daphne. Who knows what could have been had it been the case? I cant find anyone who has a bad thing to say about these submarines, and the design and customer service philosophy of the HDW has been unrivalled. Had Pakistan opted for a Type-209 variant even in the late 1970s, the 1980s or early 1990s instead of the Agosta-70 or Agosta-90B, I think it would have been money well spent. Besides the lethality and very high quality of the product, I have one reason for pushing the German angle, Turkey. Pakistan and Turkey have a fraternal relationship that actually predates the formation of Pakistan if that can be imagined. Having been supported by the Muslims of South Asia, (who sent large quantities of gold and other valuables to support their Turkish brethren), in the struggle that saw the birth of the modern Turkish state, that residual good will was transferred to those behind the Pakistan movement, and to the nation on its birth in 1947.
That is not all. With regards submarines, Turkey (having been one of the first nations to recognise the importance of submarines way back in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire just prior to WWI), helped train large numbers of Pakistans submariners, and overhauled Pakistans first submarine the Tench class PNS Ghazi. At the time both countries were operating ex-USN, reconditioned submarines, and Pakistan had no overhaul facility. It made sense therefore to foster and maintain a close relationship with Turkey. Pakistans selection of French submarines all but killed this relationship. Turkey chose to replace its submarines with the Type-209 class, various variants of which were built in its shipyards, and deep co-operation, (operation of similar platforms which allowed inter-meshing of training and operations), ended. HDW was very generous with Turkey and enabled it to build the class in various shipyards under a transfer of technology programme. Had Pakistan opted for the Type-209 as well, it is arguably the case that Pakistan could have established a submarine construction industry under a similar deal prior to the Agosta-90B programme.
Bar the Mesma AIP system, and the Subtics combat management system, I dont see what the big deal is about the Agosta-90B either. Its basically a modification of the Agosta-70, which is nothing to crow about in itself. The Agosta-90B programme is celebrated because of the industrial capability it brought, not necessarily because its a brilliant submarine. Ive never heard it described as such. A PN officer I spoke to once waxed lyrical about being able to produce the steel and fabricate the pressure hull (bar the pressure domes), and a Turkish industry official I met at IDEAS2008 was very impressed with that fact, but the submarine itself doesnt seem to have people doing cartwheels. Its possible to fit the Type-209 with an AIP system anyway (which some operators are doing), so the PN could probably have what it has in the Agosta-90B in a better submarine, the Type-209, if it had really wanted. I say its the better submarine because someone who was in the business of supplying submarine batteries for various types of submarines (not just western) and is familiar with a wide rnage of them as a result, gave me a run down of the capabilities of various submarines. According to him the Type-209, was simply superb.
At this point it may be recalled that the Indian Navy operates the largest of the Type-209 variants, and therefore the Pakistan Navy would be naturally hesitant in operating the same type of submarine if not the same variant. Thats probably true, but Greece and Turkey operate the Type-209, and the guy I spoke to supplies batteries for both. Its not a problem. The same supplier sang the praises of the Type-214 as well, and he gave a very good insight into some propaganda being used to malign the Type-214, the convoluted Greek Type-214 deal. He basically said the problems that had been encountered were nothing but the normal teething troubles of a new design which had been bought straight off paper. The Greeks have a history of this, because they were also the launch customer for the Type-209, which they also bought straight off paper, and which also had teething troubles. That didnt stop them from making follow on purchases though, and the current problems will not stop the government in Athens making follow on orders for the Type-214 in future.
For decades therefore, the German option has technologically and industrially been the better option for Pakistan, but they consistently went French. Now things are about to change, and the German, Pakistani, Turkish submarine co-operation programme that should have started decades ago, now looks like it is about to finally get off the ground. That is if the SFKAM can be kept out of the picture. Ive written before (in Defense News) about how the Pakistani and Turkish defence relationship can be boosted by building and operating the same submarine. The defence co-operation between the two can increase in breadth and depth. Some of Pakistans submarines components, modules, or even entire submarines could even be built in Turkey to speed up construction and entry into operational service. Turkey could benefit in having its subs fitted with MSLs Slimline Towed Array Sonar, which is currently being produced for the Pakistan Navy. The sonar is optimised for warm littoral waters like those found around South Asia, and could work equally well in the Mediterranean. A variant of the Babur cruise missile could even find its way onto Turkish submarines. This is just for starters. Its a win-win situation for both countries.
This cant happen if the SFKAM suddenly gets chosen. From IDEAS2006 I recall that it has a liquid oxygen-diesel AIP system, as opposed to the ethanol-liquid oxygen Mesma AIP system installed on the Agosta-90B. When I mentioned this to a German trying to flog the Type-214, he started laughing and replied Well, good luck to them in getting it to work! Good luck indeed! Opting for a paper submarine over something tried, tested, and in service is rash to say the least. With the delays that have already bedevilled the programme, Pakistan cant afford anymore, and that would definitely be a certainty if the SFKAM was somehow now selected. Theres too much at stake to go French one more time. Zardari will eventually go, but the navy runs the risk of being lumbered with a white elephant, albeit one that swims, or is supposed to, (its still only a paper sub remember).
Perhaps the only way to ward this off is to stand outside the local mosque on a Friday with a towel or shawl to collect chanda/charity for poor old Zardari. I suggest Pakistanis overseas do the same too, and if not the local mosque then at least rattle tins outside the local supermarket/shopping mall. Paying Mr Ten-Percent to keep his claws off may be the only way of saving the deal from further delays. After all, it's not like we can appeal to his patriotism, only his wallet.
Its been a long time coming, and many had hoped that the deal would have been signed by now, but the deal for the first three HDW Type-214 submarines for Pakistan has yet to materialise. That may not be so bad, because as I reported in Defense News a while back, the deal is expected to be signed before the end of Pakistans financial year, which is in August. It will then be ratified by the German government, which would happen in or just after September.
However, speculation is rife that a spanner is being readied to be thrown into the works in favour of the hitherto discounted French submarine formerly known as Marlin (SFKAM), but now a member of the Scorpene family. There are malicious rumours doing the rounds that the French have been offering a better deal, (news to me, and also to everyone else Ive spoken to), and that the SFKAM is somehow back in the running even after the navy has painstakingly evaluated both designs, and chosen the Type-214, (ie the one that actually exists and is in service, because the SFKAM is nothing but a paper submarine which exists on nothing but paper, so cant actually be evaluated as a direct comparison).
The only way this can happen at this late stage, is Mr Ten-Percent, President Asif Ali Zardari himself, the man who sprung to fame strapping bombs to businessmens legs and getting them to hand over the contents of their bank accounts. The last time he was in a position to adversely hamper a defence deal he was Finance Minister (despite having no education to speak of beyond being a spiv with hardly any redeeming qualities, if any though he is rumoured to have killed his wife). As Finance Minister he demanded a hefty commission on a deal for some ex-French Air Force Mirage-2000s, (along with his dearly departed wife it has to be said we cant leave her out). The deal was consequently scrapped, and to this day the air force officially has no fighter with an operational beyond visual range air-to-air capability. (There is a bit of a riddle in there for the above brain dead, but more will become clear sometime in the future). Anyway, getting back to Zardari he is an all round bad dude with a reputation for unsavoury financial shenanigans. Currently, the French are trying to figure out if he was somehow involved in killing some French technicians working on the Agosta-90B project in 2002, who were blown up coming out of their hotel in Karachi. Apparently, Zardari was a tad annoyed he hadnt received his full kickback for the deal, and was so short of cash hed been reduced to rummaging about in the bin outside the local MacDonalds as a result. (Admittedly, I may be wrong about that last bit).
However, now that the French are in danger of losing their monopoly in flogging dodgy submarines to Pakistan (see below), and because the next generation Pakistan submarine project may involve around 14 submarines through the life of the programme, the chequebook, and wads of cash in brown paper bags, are back out again. The deal is after all worth billions and billions, so who cares if a few technicians died? Its not like they can be brought back to life or anything, and as they say: business is business. Thats callous I know, but Im not the one throwing cash about trying to elbow my way back into a submarine deal with a paper product, and ignoring the fact that the guy on the receiving end may have had his finger on the button that blew some compatriots to smithereens.
Pakistan should never have gone for French submarines in the first place. At the time the decision was made to purchase the Daphne class in the late 1960s, the navy had been told they would have the range to operate out into the Bay of Bengal from Karachi. When it was found that wasnt the case, and the submarines would only be able to operate in and around the Arabian Sea, the French merely shrugged their shoulders and made some lame excuse about a miscalculation. Theyd captured a client, and that is what counted. In fact there was nothing ever especially brilliant about the Daphne class. Sure, people will point out that PNS Hangor was the first submarine to have sunk an enemy warship in wartime since WWII, and since then only HMS Conqueror has managed to repeat the feat, (Falklands, 1982). However, I would put that down more to the professionalism of the Hangors crew, the particular environment the engagement took place, and the fact that INS Khukri was fairly old and at a disadvantage with regards systems. We also have to remember that the first torpedo fired failed (even after it passed directly under the keel of its intended target and didnt explode), and alerted the Indians to Hangors presence, nearly leading to her being sunk. It was a close run thing.
Instead the navy should have purchased the British Oberon class, which was the best diesel-electric submarine of the entire Cold War by far. Im not saying that because Im biased by being British, or because I hate the French. Im merely saying that because the Oberon class were the best diesel-electric submarines of the entire Cold War by far. Their exploits in the hands of Australian, British, and Canadian crews are stuff of legend. One day, Ill find out why Pakistan did not purchase them, but I suspect it was on grounds of cost, and because the British government at the time, (as it is now more than ever), was probably rabidly pro-Indian. Admittedly the British, in a fit of insanity, killed their own conventional submarine industry, and their customers were taken by others, not least the Germans with the Type-209 series.
The Type-209 was another missed opportunity for Pakistan. Sadly, it wasnt available at the time when decision was made for the Daphne. Who knows what could have been had it been the case? I cant find anyone who has a bad thing to say about these submarines, and the design and customer service philosophy of the HDW has been unrivalled. Had Pakistan opted for a Type-209 variant even in the late 1970s, the 1980s or early 1990s instead of the Agosta-70 or Agosta-90B, I think it would have been money well spent. Besides the lethality and very high quality of the product, I have one reason for pushing the German angle, Turkey. Pakistan and Turkey have a fraternal relationship that actually predates the formation of Pakistan if that can be imagined. Having been supported by the Muslims of South Asia, (who sent large quantities of gold and other valuables to support their Turkish brethren), in the struggle that saw the birth of the modern Turkish state, that residual good will was transferred to those behind the Pakistan movement, and to the nation on its birth in 1947.
That is not all. With regards submarines, Turkey (having been one of the first nations to recognise the importance of submarines way back in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire just prior to WWI), helped train large numbers of Pakistans submariners, and overhauled Pakistans first submarine the Tench class PNS Ghazi. At the time both countries were operating ex-USN, reconditioned submarines, and Pakistan had no overhaul facility. It made sense therefore to foster and maintain a close relationship with Turkey. Pakistans selection of French submarines all but killed this relationship. Turkey chose to replace its submarines with the Type-209 class, various variants of which were built in its shipyards, and deep co-operation, (operation of similar platforms which allowed inter-meshing of training and operations), ended. HDW was very generous with Turkey and enabled it to build the class in various shipyards under a transfer of technology programme. Had Pakistan opted for the Type-209 as well, it is arguably the case that Pakistan could have established a submarine construction industry under a similar deal prior to the Agosta-90B programme.
Bar the Mesma AIP system, and the Subtics combat management system, I dont see what the big deal is about the Agosta-90B either. Its basically a modification of the Agosta-70, which is nothing to crow about in itself. The Agosta-90B programme is celebrated because of the industrial capability it brought, not necessarily because its a brilliant submarine. Ive never heard it described as such. A PN officer I spoke to once waxed lyrical about being able to produce the steel and fabricate the pressure hull (bar the pressure domes), and a Turkish industry official I met at IDEAS2008 was very impressed with that fact, but the submarine itself doesnt seem to have people doing cartwheels. Its possible to fit the Type-209 with an AIP system anyway (which some operators are doing), so the PN could probably have what it has in the Agosta-90B in a better submarine, the Type-209, if it had really wanted. I say its the better submarine because someone who was in the business of supplying submarine batteries for various types of submarines (not just western) and is familiar with a wide rnage of them as a result, gave me a run down of the capabilities of various submarines. According to him the Type-209, was simply superb.
At this point it may be recalled that the Indian Navy operates the largest of the Type-209 variants, and therefore the Pakistan Navy would be naturally hesitant in operating the same type of submarine if not the same variant. Thats probably true, but Greece and Turkey operate the Type-209, and the guy I spoke to supplies batteries for both. Its not a problem. The same supplier sang the praises of the Type-214 as well, and he gave a very good insight into some propaganda being used to malign the Type-214, the convoluted Greek Type-214 deal. He basically said the problems that had been encountered were nothing but the normal teething troubles of a new design which had been bought straight off paper. The Greeks have a history of this, because they were also the launch customer for the Type-209, which they also bought straight off paper, and which also had teething troubles. That didnt stop them from making follow on purchases though, and the current problems will not stop the government in Athens making follow on orders for the Type-214 in future.
For decades therefore, the German option has technologically and industrially been the better option for Pakistan, but they consistently went French. Now things are about to change, and the German, Pakistani, Turkish submarine co-operation programme that should have started decades ago, now looks like it is about to finally get off the ground. That is if the SFKAM can be kept out of the picture. Ive written before (in Defense News) about how the Pakistani and Turkish defence relationship can be boosted by building and operating the same submarine. The defence co-operation between the two can increase in breadth and depth. Some of Pakistans submarines components, modules, or even entire submarines could even be built in Turkey to speed up construction and entry into operational service. Turkey could benefit in having its subs fitted with MSLs Slimline Towed Array Sonar, which is currently being produced for the Pakistan Navy. The sonar is optimised for warm littoral waters like those found around South Asia, and could work equally well in the Mediterranean. A variant of the Babur cruise missile could even find its way onto Turkish submarines. This is just for starters. Its a win-win situation for both countries.
This cant happen if the SFKAM suddenly gets chosen. From IDEAS2006 I recall that it has a liquid oxygen-diesel AIP system, as opposed to the ethanol-liquid oxygen Mesma AIP system installed on the Agosta-90B. When I mentioned this to a German trying to flog the Type-214, he started laughing and replied Well, good luck to them in getting it to work! Good luck indeed! Opting for a paper submarine over something tried, tested, and in service is rash to say the least. With the delays that have already bedevilled the programme, Pakistan cant afford anymore, and that would definitely be a certainty if the SFKAM was somehow now selected. Theres too much at stake to go French one more time. Zardari will eventually go, but the navy runs the risk of being lumbered with a white elephant, albeit one that swims, or is supposed to, (its still only a paper sub remember).
Perhaps the only way to ward this off is to stand outside the local mosque on a Friday with a towel or shawl to collect chanda/charity for poor old Zardari. I suggest Pakistanis overseas do the same too, and if not the local mosque then at least rattle tins outside the local supermarket/shopping mall. Paying Mr Ten-Percent to keep his claws off may be the only way of saving the deal from further delays. After all, it's not like we can appeal to his patriotism, only his wallet.
Have a happy reading this time!
