Forecasting System and Theater Level Impacts of Technology Infusion on Conventional Submarine Design

[The SC]

ABSTRACT​

This study examines a new methodology that can aid the decision-maker in projecting the
performance of future vessel concepts and in allocating the resources for technological research
and development in an optimum way. The new method combines system level submarine design
parameters, including technology impact assessment, with mission analysis. The impact of
technology will be assessed through the use of technology k-factors that will be introduced into a
mathematical synthesis model and will modify technical characteristics or cost parameters of the
design. These modifications will result in changes of the technical metrics to simulate the
hypothetical improvement or degradation associated with the new technology. Finally, a
technological impact assessment of the operational characteristics of the design is performed
using a mission simulation at the theater level by determining indiscretion ratios and notional
probabilities of detection.

" Significant development is also taking place in the area of submarine propulsion motors. Conventional
submarines usually operate at very low speeds; therefore, the motor is required to deliver high torque at
low rpm. This requirement calls for a large diameter motor (Burcher, 1994), which is heavy and volume
consuming. Advances in alternating current (AC) control technology and motor design expanded the type
and size of electric machines that can be used for submarine propulsion. Some of the available choices
are: induction, permanent magnet, and superconducting motors. The permanent magnet excited synchronous motor is based on a proven technology and can lead to great savings in weight and volume: up to 50% in weight and up to 40% in volume (Thornton, 1994).
Superconducting motors can develop the same torque and horsepower while being nearly one-third the size of a conventional motor. It is also estimated that the length of a superconducting motor will be on the order of one-quarter of the length of a permanent magnet motor (Sharke, 2000)

In addition to increasing underwater endurance, the vulnerability of the submarine can be reduced by increasing diving depth, and reducing its signatures."

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